Cubs 2nd half placeholder thread

[Jason Ross]

The Brewers don't make the trade if they don't like something in McCullers or Gordon. Yes. The Cubs wouldn't have traded for David Peterson if there wasn't something they liked about him. 

But I wouldn't worry too much about Colton Gordon either. Go look at his Triple-A data below. This is what the Brewers do. They collect pitchers they think could be interesting. Ultimately they paid $7m for two arms and one is controllable. It's a cheap price of entry. 

And for good measure, his 2025. 

He isn't very good. He doesn't have interesting data. He doesn't have pedigree. Maybe they entirely rebuild him, but as is...it's just a young-ish pitcher. I wouldn't read into it. He almost assuredly isn't a stud. Good chance he isn't even mediocre. 

[BKHoo]

12 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

The Brewers don't make the trade if they don't like something in McCullers or Gordon. Yes. The Cubs wouldn't have traded for David Peterson if there wasn't something they liked about him. 

But I wouldn't worry too much about Colton Gordon either. Go look at his Triple-A data below. This is what the Brewers do. They collect pitchers they think could be interesting. Ultimately they paid $7m for two arms and one is controllable. It's a cheap price of entry. 

And for good measure, his 2025. 

He isn't very good. He doesn't have interesting data. He doesn't have pedigree. Maybe they entirely rebuild him, but as is...it's just a young-ish pitcher. I wouldn't read into it. He almost assuredly isn't a stud. Good chance he isn't even mediocre. 

I’d agree …. but it’s the Brewers.  

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

4 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

I’d agree …. but it’s the Brewers.  

"It's the Brewers" is a made-up narrative. it'll be replaced with "it's the cardinals" in a few years or some other team

[Soul]

11 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

"It's the Brewers" is a made-up narrative. it'll be replaced with "it's the cardinals" in a few years or some other team

It’s PTSD.

[Bertz]

The Brewers are clearly the smartest team in the league, they're the new Rays and have been for the better part of 5 years.

But even the smartest team in the league is still only stacking 53/47 type bets, they're not omniscient.

[CubUgly]

11 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

"It's the Brewers" is a made-up narrative. it'll be replaced with "it's the cardinals" in a few years or some other team

Actually, it was the Cardinals just a few years ago, they have been replaced by the Brewers.   They've had a damn good run with a mid payroll and exceeding projections every year.  Keep waiting for it to end - it just won't.  I hate them more than the Cards now. 

[Soul]

6 minutes ago, CubUgly said:

Actually, it was the Cardinals just a few years ago, they have been replaced by the Brewers.   They've had a damn good run with a mid payroll and exceeding projections every year.  Keep waiting for it to end - it just won't.  I hate them more than the Cards now. 

I swore an oath when I was like 16 to hate the Cardinals more than anyone else in baseball so I’m locked in.

[NorthsideAvenger]

Brewers gave up Prince Fielder's son as part of the deal.  

I don't think much will come from this deal for the Brewers. To me this deal is not unlike what the Cubs have done in the first half, collecting arms and seeing if anything sticks. 

Edited July 15 by NorthsideAvenger

[JD94]

Likely doesn’t mean much but there’s not much to talk about so I’ll post it anyways. Heyman listed the Cubs, Braves, Rays as potential suitors for Skubal today. Oh and his “wild card” team is….. drumroll… the Los Angeles Dodgers lol. 

[Bobson Dugnutt]

6 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

Nah. And this isn't his first Twitter flub. Can't remember the exact tweet or when it was (sometime pre-covid, I think?) but he posted some dumb thing on Twitter before and had to apologize publicly. 

It was in 2020. It was a dumb political meme about Hillary Clinton being a man. The funniest part about it is that it was included in a tweet about maybe the most inconsequential Cubs call up ever. Gramps fumbled his phone trying to break the Ian Miller call up news as quickly as possible and accidentally attached one of the pictures from his Drunk Uncle folder lmao.

[PeanutPunch33]

I'm happy the Brewers made that trade.  I thought this was the year they would sack up and make a big trade like Skubal or Ryan or something.  Instead, it looks like they will continue flirting around the edges, if this move is any indication of their broader strategy.  And given that they are taking on some money it seems like it is.

[Dfan25]

Hopefully the Tigers decide to pitch Skubal Sunday . Don’t want them to run into Ryan and Skubal . Ryan is most likely going Sunday .

 

The schedule coming out of the break is sneaky difficult . They could get both Ryan and Skubal . Pirates can really pitch and the Cardinals have play well against the Cubs and I simply don’t like how the cubs lefties matchup with them .

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

The Brewers are clearly the smartest team in the league, they're the new Rays and have been for the better part of 5 years.

But even the smartest team in the league is still only stacking 53/47 type bets, they're not omniscient.

I agree with this. I see getting McCullers similar to the Cubs getting Peterson. Gordon is a throw in they will try to fix. If they can’t they just cut him loose. If they do, he could be someone on the team for several years. Which is why I said he could hurt the Cubs more than McCullers. I feel McCullers does very little for the Brewers, much like Peterson for the Cubs. While Gordon will most likely prove to be nothing, if anyone could hurt the Cubs it would be him, because he has controllable years. When it all shakes out he will probably end up bouncing around baseball and never amounting to anything. But there is something the Brewrrs saw in him or they would trade for him. 

[ILMindState]

OT but you guys should take this over. Give Phil a better platform to post instead of a screen shot of written words. 

[Stu]

On 7/14/2026 at 3:37 PM, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Rate Pete's red carpet fit:

As a fashion icon, he’s a damn good centerfielder
 

I mean those sleeves are disaster. They’re way too long. and he should be rocking flat front pants, not pleated. And the loafers look like something someone’s grandpa would wear.

Edited July 16 by Stu
Corrected a typo

[NorthsideAvenger]

On 7/14/2026 at 2:37 PM, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Rate Pete's red carpet fit:

So, PCA is cosplaying as James Marsters?

[Post Count Padder]

Given that I live in Philly, I went to a couple days of the Fan Village. Lotta fun. Got to meet Dexter Fowler, whose smile lights up a room. He saw me coming and said "oh I love that hat" (I was wearing the 2016 WS Champs hat).

Also went to a talk with Fergie Jenkins. Afterward he signed a card for me and kept chatting like he had nowhere to be. Genuinely friendly/awesome. I asked if he knew the Cubs drafted the grandson of the guy who shares his Topps rookie card and he said yeah and went on a story about how they came up together and signed their contracts like a week apart. 

I asked him his favorite Wrigley memory and he told me his first one. His first game at Wrigley pitching with the Phillies and he gave up a homer to Santo and still talks about how the Cubs are the only NL team he's never beaten.

Also a fun note: someone in the crowd asked him the pitcher in the MLB today who reminds him most of himself, and without hesitating Fergie said "Cubs have a kid named Ben Brown who was lights out before he got hurt and I can't wait to see what he does when he's back on the mound."

[Geographyhater8888]

13 hours ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

"It's the Brewers" is a made-up narrative. it'll be replaced with "it's the cardinals" in a few years or some other team

The difference is that Cardinals have always skated around a top 10 payroll, especially during the LaRussa and Matheny eras with guys like Pujols, Rollen, Edmonds, Carpenter, Wainwright, Molina, Holliday etc. the Brewers just horsefeathers out 90+ win seasons with constant roster turnover while exceeding projected wins by 10+ games year after year with a microscopic payroll.

The Brewers don’t make sense. The Cardinals did on some level. Their wRC+ with RISP is 10 points higher their true wRC+ since 2018, they’re averaging 92 wins/season with the average war of an 88 win team/162. The Cubs since 2018 are averaging about 85 wins with the average war of an 85 win team. 
 

Edited July 16 by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

8 hours ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

I'm happy the Brewers made that trade.  I thought this was the year they would sack up and make a big trade like Skubal or Ryan or something.  Instead, it looks like they will continue flirting around the edges, if this move is any indication of their broader strategy.  And given that they are taking on some money it seems like it is.

They still might. It was a minor trade. The Cubs aren’t done adding because they traded for David Peterson. I hope not at least.

Edited July 16 by Geographyhater8888

[mul21]

6 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

The difference is that Cardinals have always skated around a top 10 payroll, especially during the LaRussa and Matheny eras with guys like Pujols, Rollen, Edmonds, Carpenter, Wainwright, Molina, Holliday etc. the Brewers just horsefeathers out 90+ win seasons with constant roster turnover while exceeding projected wins by 10+ games year after year with a microscopic payroll.

The Brewers don’t make sense. The Cardinals did on some level. Their wRC+ with RISP is 10 points higher their true wRC+ since 2018, they’re averaging 92 wins/season with the average war of an 88 win team/162. The Cubs since 2018 are averaging about 85 wins with the average war of an 85 win team. 
 

The Brewers do make sense when you dig in.  They've just stopped swinging the bat.  They also have a focus on hitting hard ground balls.  They also don't pull the ball.  They're zigging when everyone else is zagging and being the only ones going against the grain is proving to be successful.  I ran across a reel from the Wake and Rake podcast that outlines their strategy and it's pretty wild.

[gflore34]

17 minutes ago, mul21 said:

The Brewers do make sense when you dig in.  They've just stopped swinging the bat.  They also have a focus on hitting hard ground balls.  They also don't pull the ball.  They're zigging when everyone else is zagging and being the only ones going against the grain is proving to be successful.  I ran across a reel from the Wake and Rake podcast that outlines their strategy and it's pretty wild.

I believe their approach of death by a thousand cuts works over the course of a long season.  Just, don't think it's quite as successful in the post season, they're no longer facing average to below average pitching, the opponents are no longer mistake prone and have overall solid lineups which can execute against the Brewers pitching.

[UMFan83]

18 hours ago, squally1313 said:

I'm not triggered, I'm just not going to get 'concerned' about a 27 year old who (likely, not doing research all the way back) never cracked a bad system's top 10 and has pitched badly since being called up 100 innings ago. If he's good, good for them I guess. Teams make a bunch of these trades every year and find success occasionally. Our $2m backup outfielder has an 820 OPS, Ryan Rolison has given us 35 innings of pretty decent bullpen work. Normally they don't because bad players will continue to be bad. 

Andrew Vaughn was the #3 overall pick. Kyle Harrison was the top prospect for the Red Sox 2 years ago. Colton Gordon has given up 27 home runs in 95 career MLB innings and hasn't had a minor league ERA under 3 since he pitched in high A as a 23 year old 4 years ago. These are not the same things. 

You're not wrong, I just think it's funny the examples you used for the Cubs are a former all-star with a career OPS+ of 116 and a former 1st round pick (both of them actually are former 1st round picks).  Your point is accurate, many teams pick up lesser thought of players and turn them into contributors.  The Cubs have a type too, and when they acquire a crappy pitcher, we assume they see something in them that fits their pitching philosophy and can potentially be fixed.  The Brewers definitely seem to be above average at doing this but not to the point where we should be immediately worried about Colton Gordon being the next scrapheap superstar for the Brewers.

Edited July 16 by UMFan83

[Geographyhater8888]

48 minutes ago, mul21 said:

The Brewers do make sense when you dig in.  They've just stopped swinging the bat.  They also have a focus on hitting hard ground balls.  They also don't pull the ball.  They're zigging when everyone else is zagging and being the only ones going against the grain is proving to be successful.  I ran across a reel from the Wake and Rake podcast that outlines their strategy and it's pretty wild.

I always thought that was by design but I’ve never read or listened to anything that meaningfully digs into the systematic aspect of how they operate. I’ll check that out. 

Edited July 16 by Geographyhater8888

[squally1313]

13 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

You're not wrong, I just think it's funny the examples you used for the Cubs are a former all-star with a career OPS+ of 116 and a former 1st round pick (both of them actually are former 1st round picks).  Your point is accurate, many teams pick up lesser thought of players and turn them into contributors.  The Cubs have a type too, and when they acquire a crappy pitcher, we assume they see something in them that fits their pitching philosophy and can potentially be fixed.  The Brewers definitely seem to be above average at doing this but not to the point where we should be immediately worried about Colton Gordon being the next scrapheap superstar for the Brewers.

Yeah you're right that I probably overlapped different arguments. I just think the argument of 'oh it's the Brewers so this guy must actually be good' falls apart pretty quickly. Vaughn, Harrison, even Conforto and Rolison have all shown flashes of talent in the past. Does that translate to future success? Absolutely not, and there are hundreds of examples you could probably name just between the Brewers and the Cubs. Gordon has not, really at any point in his career. We can evaluate the players. Astros ended up keeping most of McCuller's contract too, so this wasn't some 'buy a prospect' thing (also because, again, he's 27). They need innings, and while none of these injuries are recent, there are five relievers on the 40 man roster injured right now, and four of them are lefties. 

(You know who would have been really good to stabilize their rotation right now, even in a down year? Freddy Peralta. But hey, at least they have Brandon Sproat, 25 years old, and his +5 ERA and FIP, and a guy with a 95 wRC in AAA with no real defensive position)

[macarthur31]

This morning's read that made me go 🤔  Neil Payne's analysis in The Athletic: "History says one of these 7 teams should win the World Series."

Payne did this last season where he looked at: statistical cutoffs that separate real contenders from the rest of the pack...to find a series of rules to match the patterns of previous champions.

The summary, there are several standards of varying import (points suggest how Payne weighted it).

Tier 1

Overall quality (Runs/game differential): 18 points

Average weighted rank for World Series Teams: 6.1 (the average weighted rank for non-WS teams was 16.0, making it a +10.1 gap.

Key cutoff: 90% of World Series teams rank 14th or better at the break: 18 points

Cubs:  PASSED (currently 5th)

Tier 2

Offense (Batting Win Probablility Added): 12 points

Average weighted rank for World Series Teams: 7.1 (+8.9 vs. non-WS teams avg ranking)

Key Cutoff: 95% of WS teams rank 19th or better at the break

Cubs: PASSED (currently 2nd)

Pitching and defense (Pitching WHIP+): 8 points

Average weighted rank for World Series Teams: 9.7 (+6.2 vs. non-WS teams avg ranking)

Key cutoff: 75% of WS teams rank 14th or better at the break

Cubs:  PASSED (13th)

Tier 3

Starting pitching (Rotation ERA-): 5 points

Average weighted rank for World Series Teams: 10.4 (+5.5 vs. non-WS teams avg ranking)

Key cutoff: 55% of WS teams rank 10th or better at the break

Cubs: FAILED (23rd)

Defense (Fielding Runs): 5 points

Average weighted rank for World Series Teams: 10.4 (+5.5 vs. non-WS teams ranking) - Also, not a typo as this is the same as Starting Pitching above

Key cutoff: 65% of WS teams rank 12th or better at the break

Cubs:  PASSED (1st)

Relief Pitching (Bullpen "Meltdown" Avoidance): 4 points

Average weighted rank for World Series Teams: 11.0 (+4.7 vs. non-WS teams ranking)

Key cutoff: 85% of WS teams rank 22nd or better at the break

Cubs:  PASSED (17th)

Tier 4

Power hitting (Slugging %): 4 points

Average weighted rank for World Series Teams: 7.9 (+8.1 vs. non-WS teams avg ranking)

Key cutoff: 90% of WS teams rank 15th or better at the break

Cubs:  PASSED (10th)

Plate discipline (OBP):  3 points

Average weighted rank for World Series Teams: 8.6 (+7.4 vs. non-WS teams avg ranking)

Key cutoff: 90% of WS teams rank 18th or better at the break

Cubs:  PASSED (4th)

Contact Prevention (Opponent Batting Average): 3 points

Average weighted rank for World Series Teams: 9.1 (+6.9 vs. non-WS teams avg ranking)

Key cutoff: 90% of WS teams rank 17th or better at the break

Cubs:  FAILED (19th)

Pitching dominance (K-BB%): 2 points

Average weighted rank for World Series Teams: 11.3 (+4.5 vs. non-WS teams avg ranking)

Key cutoff: 95% of WS teams rank 20th or better

Cubs:  PASSED (16th)

Home run prevention (Pitching HR/9+): 2 points

Average weighted rank for World Series Teams: 12 (+3.7 vs. non-WS teams avg ranking)

Key cutoff: 95% of WS teams rank 26th or better at the break

Cubs:  FAILED (29th)

Clutch Performance (Batting "clutch" score): 1 point

Average weighted rank for World Series Teams: 13.3 (+2.3 vs. non-WS teams avg ranking)

Key cutoff: 70% of WS teams rank 20th or better at the break

Cubs:  PASSED (17th)

Speed/baserunning (Speed Score): 1 point

Average weighted rank for World Series Teams: 13.3 (+2.3 vs. non-WS teams avg ranking)

Key cutoff: 50% of WS teams rank 12th or better at the break

Cubs:  PASSED (10th)

 

Here's your best 7 (Mostly passed the above tests - 80% scores or above)

1. Yankees (68/68 points)
2. Dodgers (67 points)
3. Braves (64 points)
4. Rays (62 points)
5. Brewers (59 points)
6. Cubs (58 points)
7. Mariners (55 points)