macarthur31

As usual, great write up. This year's Cub bench was yearning for a savvy, veteran utility player - and it turned out that they got two of them in Michael Conforto and Pedro Ramirez. I've had the Suzuki/Happ free agency conundrum on the backburner of my mind, and yet I hadn't thought of the Shaw/Ramirez platoon being a viable option in case Jed only wants to bring one of the two corner OFs back.

I share the video not just because the clickbaity title reveals how my algorithm is tilted (though to be fair, the back end of his opening statement after he calls them frauds is, "they're also very good...particularly their offense..."), but rather since the Cubs have similar outcomes to the Brewers, you see them in comparison on the data tables shared. The "too long, didn't watch" of it is: Since 2025, the Brewers have collectively been an elite run producing team because they are disproportiately good vs. pitchers who don't throw hard, don't throw strikes, and don't prevent runs, a.k.a. "The Mitch Keller Theory" because over the course of 162 games, teams have to account for 1400+ innings, and half of those they're facing a pitcher worse that Mitch Keller. OK, here's the Cub side of it: Since '25, the Cubs have the best wOBA against the bottom 48 pitchers (.380) However, unlike the Brewers, they have the best wOBA (.311) against the top 48 pitchers. The Cubs are the 3rd BEST vs pitches below 98 mph. However, they're the 3rd WORST wOBA vs. pitches above 98MPH This is significant given that the playoff pitching ramps up in velo as teams are facing the 1-3 starter and high lev relievers. (Note the average 4S FB during the '25 regular season is clocked at 94.5 MPH v '25 playoffs at 95.8 MPH.) Like the Brewers, the Cubs are super patient - both teams are at the bottom of the Chase Rate% and Swing% tables in 2026, and conversely the top of the BB% rate. While the Brewers are 28th in HRs since 2025 (266), the Cubs are 4th (357). And a scan of the '26 leaderboards show that the Cubs are 6th in SLG (.415) while the Brewers are 20th (.398) All this to say, yeah Yankees series was hella frustrating; but in the aggregate, the Cubs have terrific balance on offense, even with their weakness against elite velo. In light of this, this really affirms why Jed pushed the pedal down at TDL.

Just watched Zeferjahn's postgame interview with Cole and Cliff. Really dig his vibe - just wants the ball every day - "strikeouts are good, but quick innings are even better..." He'll fit in juuuuust fine.

Weren't 17 of the draft picks this past class used towards acquiring more pitching? I'm intuiting that affirms that we have alignment with Zombro and Kantrovitz in the draft room. We may not flood future draft classes with just pitching, but I'm hopeful that by '29/'30 we'll have waves of cost-controlled supinators pushing to be on the big squad. Maybe I'm oversimplifying it, Jason - but perhaps not all of these pitchers pan out as starters; then you hone them to be useful relief pitchers. You augment that with the proven pro scouting/reclamation work that has delivered Jacob Webb and Ryan Rolison this past year, Drew Pomeranz and Brad Keller the previous season, and so on. Of course it's easy to write out in a blog, but that seems like a viable path to get off the cost-controlled pitching treadmill within the next 3-4 seasons.

Perhaps it's projecting a bit too far in the future, and while it's the right thing to do for the '26 campaign - Does this hinder his desire to re-sign with the Cubs on a QO or extension offer? (akin to - $75M/3Y, and maybe mutual option for that 3rd year)

Alfonsin Rosario for Eli Morgan may end up one that Jed wished he could do over, but of course, that one stung more given Morgan was injured and hasn't seemed to be able to get back on track since that injury. But, agreed - you can't hit on all of the moves, and Jed has appeared to win more than lose, and even when there are losses, they haven't been catastrophic. (*knocks wood*)

Not seeing the full lineup, I'm assuming that Couns is starting up the LF platoon in earnest.

Sure - but this'll be the first season Amaya has shown he could stay healthy to handle the platoon (knocks on all sorts of wood as I know the season isn't over yet). Agreed that if he can maintain 105 wRC+ and his handling of the staff, he's a solid #1 backstop for us, but they must be high on Ayers to envision him as Amaya' caddy next season.

If Detmers is still on, then I look forward to seeing the total package we sent for Detmers + Zeferjahn. Mo Baller feels like a bit of an overpay (perhaps the heart talking too much in this moment), but maybe that's offset in whatever got sent for Detmers. (Again, assuming that Detmers is still on)

This suggests to me that Ayers is staying, as Jed/Carter see him as the next Cubs catcher. This also likely means that they weren't sold on Mo Baller's ability to make it there, and Mo hasn't been tearing it up in AAA - this was likely the highest value you were gonna get for Mo? 🤷‍♂️. (I dunno, I'm just trying to make it make sense.)

He's been methodical, y'all. He's got the controllable starter, he got the rental. Both guys slot higher than Shota/Boyd. One more high lev bullpen arm to get.

I know it's not a thing yet, but with a new CBA looming - is it possible that reducing the amount of "controllable years" from 6 to 5 (or lower) is hanging over Jed's assessment?

Hoo boy, any of these 3 would automatically rate as an improvement on Boyd/Shota, and it'd be mission accomplished at the deadline. Shoot, pick up Jacob Latz in a package deal and we're commemorating coins for this TDl alone.

😬