macarthur31

Maybe he'll be too expensive, or perhaps we need to prioritize SP, but can I interest anyone in Teruaki Sato for corner OF?

Aside from the Local TV Deal money, I'd imagine that getting the salary cap installed would go a long way towards getting clearer franchise valuations. MLB just increased the cap for single private equity investment up to 20% (though it can't exceed the owner's controlling stake) - so perhaps higher franchise valuations now ups the potential moolah gained through P/E coming in. Getting this done also paves the way for expansion to get to 32 total teams - (16 in AL/NL, 4 divisions of 4 teams each), and clearer cost certainty may increase the amount of potential owner candidates. All in all, estimated to be roughly $6B in expansion fees to divvy between 30 teams - $200M in one fell swoop sure helps. So, this does become a "intramural" battle within the owners - status quo is good for some (big markets who want to keep pushing their advantage, as well as small markets who are shielded from having to spend up to a floor), but are they willing to trade the known present for a potentially more lucrative future? I have to imagine that trying to align 23/30 is easier than the amount that the MLBPA has to align; and owners will have a bigger warchest to wait the lockout out than the players.

I align with you that the prospect of a salary cap is likely more of a negotiating chip with regards to the reality of executing it - they'd have to open their books, discern what counts as "Baseball Related Income", and the current proposal of floor is like 70% of cap, which is laughable given that NBA/NFL/NHL floors are at 90%. However, I understand that cost certainty is the biggest prize - and namely that through a salary cap they can limit player spending, even as the media deals and other potential revenue streams keep rising. (Or perhaps this prevents rogues like Steve Cohen to uber-invest on payroll; or in the NBA - see Steve Ballmer circumventing the cap to give Kawhi Leonard's camp all the monies). Quick google search says to me that it takes 23/30 owners to pass major league wide rules. The biggest winners in local TV revenue are LAD ($334M), NYM ($217M), LAA ($172M), CHC ($132M) and NYM ($128M). If the average MLB team makes $40-$50M, Manfred just needs to make the case that a centralized media package could net $90M-$100M per team, and he could get enough votes to pass.

From my limited vantage point, I intuit that centralizing the media inventory and landing that next rights deal ASAP is top priority for Manfred. (IIRC, I don't think they need unanimous owners vote to get that done.). I agree that the MLBPA isn't going to buckle on salary cap, but the owners will extract enough other items (domestic draft contraction, establish int'l draft, etc) to support more cost certainty. They can live with a "tougher" soft cap, since 80% of owners already treat it like a hard cap - and we will lose a small sliver of games, but likely will play ball by April.

Unsure if its a numbers game, but it seems that every year the "Pitch Lab" scores a reclamation win: Lopez and Miller in '24, Keller in '25, Rolison and Webb in '26. Hoping that Roli and Webb can stay steady, but assuming they can unearth another one, (Or perhaps Maton is that reclamation project?) then I align with bullpen being a lower priority to SP, Corner OF and possibly power upgrade at 1B? (I like Busch, but I wouldn't be surprised if Jed is looking for proven 30 HR power at that spot)

Right on. I can see how reallocating $25.2M (Dansby's luxury tax hit) could help cover costs to improve the pitching as you outlined. Perhaps if he had only one year left, I might be able to see how another team may want to offer up a decent prospect. However, if the Cubs were in that spot, that speaks to me that we're tanking the next season - or perhaps we have a different POBO than Jed Hoyer, as Jed chose Dansby in that SS FA class to be a cornerstone to build the next great Cubs team.

I have a hard time figuring out how trading "Dansby for prospects" makes the '27 team better. Even if you were going to get any prospects for him, they'd be of the long-term lottery kind, so I guess you're raising the ceiling of the '31 team? He's still top tier with regards to defense and he's a clubhouse leader - that also seems like a horrific message to send to the rest of the team. Looking at his fangraphs, it's evident that he took a step back with the bat this season. However, he improved his BB% to 10.5%, which is just about his career best ('17, 10.7%) and his K% is down to 23.7%, his best ever as a Cub - and the .185 was also his best as a Cub. Why was the BABIP down to a career worst .242, and the Barrel% down to 7.2% (from career avg 9.0%). Perhaps he's in a transition phase with his approach as he's starting to age? Given his high work ethic, I'm hopeful he can trend upwards in '27.

I needed some time away. After reading the thread so far, as well as watching Jed's presser last week, I'm in general alignment that: we'll extend the QOs to Happ and Suzuki; and OK with it if the former picks it up, and not expecting for the latter to give it any mind as he ends up in another NPB-alum friendly place like Toronto. Even if he could convert any/some combo of Shaw, Ramirez, Alcantara into 1-2 controlled cost starters, he still will likely devote the super majority of the FA war chest into pitching. Steele, Brown, Horton, Wiggins: I'd lean pessimistic to pencil anyone save Steele to get more than 15 starts next season. The bullpen is not in a shambles. I'm interested to see a full offseason for Palencia, Zeferjahn, Webb and Rolison. We also have Maton coming back, hopefully with the knee healed up. Perhaps some of that transfer money could be spent here to get some more velo/Ks, but this is a decent floor to work with. Other things that come to mind: All in all, I'd rate the Shota experience as a win, and it provides us more intel on how NPB alum might fare in the Cubs rotation. What's up with Hottovy? I'm not necessarily calling for his ouster, but it's apparent that the Cubs will continue to examine it's pitching infrastructure. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a mutual parting of the ways, and perhaps we'll see someone aligned with the Zombro-coaching tree steps in. Someone said this earlier on the thread - I wouldn't be against trading Hartshorn to secure cost-controlled starting pitching. It's hard to imagine the hype on him getting any higher. If the assignment is to get to a 93 win floor team, then it's just daunting. Outside of the starting rotation, they need to figure out the corner outfielders, a replacement for Carson Kelly, RH platoon for Busch. On the plus side, the infield is pretty set; and PCA elite defense gives them leeway to go more bat first in filling out the corner OF; Finally, the looming CBA battle just throws more complexity into the mix.

On one hand, the owners will still get the TV money for 2027 games - whether or not they happen. That seems to me to be a useful bolstering for their war chest. However, if they do "punt" on the season, that costs them a year in waiting to do a new lucrative media deal. So, how greedy are they?

Great.

By leaving the Cubs beat, that likely frees up her summers. Along with the rise to the national network (though ESPN seems to have lost a bit of its shine in recent years), that had to be a perk as well. She could be the next Erin Andrews in the sideline reporter game - her ceiling is high.

Yeah, it's kind of a bummer as she really has become a fixture on Marquee, and has terrific chemistry with JD and Boog. However, she's been doing the sideline reporting gig for college football alongside Marquee, and this season has started to break out (she got rave reviews for her explainer during the SMU-FSU game delayed by power outage). Perhaps I'm reading too much into things - but Marquee has a pretty robust television roster, and I wonder if this is cost control. Elise Menaker has capably fulfilled that role, so barring her availability, she could likely step into the sideline role smoothly. (Lance Broz has also been solid as the "C-Teamer", and given he's already Marquee's Cubs pod co-host, he'd likely be up for getting that "backup" to Menaker.)

When a team clinches playoffs, I'm totally down for them to celebrate the achievement. It's been a long season - only 12 teams get to do this. However, if they win today, I'm trying to figure out how raucous the celebration will be - given its a getaway day to Boston, and there's a doubleheader tomorrow. I intuit that they'll probably only go at 60-70% intensity with it, and that's a great problem to have (*knocks on all sorts of wood around me, to stifle any jinx*).

Double header means we can add one more pitcher for that day, right? Wonder how that intersects with the buzz about Justin Steele making an appearance in the final series.

I'd imagine that whether or not he's on the Injured List would be a significant tell. If Bregman/Cubs were feeling optimistic, I would've expected at least a 7-day concussion symptoms IL list stay (which I imagine they could make a compelling case). If they go with the 10-day, does that cut it way too close to make WC series? I don't think there has been an announcement yet, but I'd be very surprised that the Cubs would be willing to be down a man on the bench with homefield advantage still in play.

If I recall, Kyle Schwarber was doing as much work in the cage as well other adjacent activities to be ready for the possibility of breaking into that WS roster. I imagine that 10 years later, Bregs will also be tapping into the Cubs tech to make the same case.

To borrow from "Football Manager"/"Championship Manager", I'd definitely rate Bregman's "Determination" as a 20 of 20. As much as I respect it - it's so much to believe that 1)come back at all for any postseason play, 2)even if he did, is trajekt enough to get him back up to game speed much less any understandable mental fear/yips when the opposing pitcher fires a fastball up and in on him? Not trying to be a downer, but at this point, we just gotta assume it's gonna be Shaw/Ramirez and hope those dudes can catch fire.

Whoa. I'm looking at the Cincy Logo that's painted in that first photo, and Bregman's left foot (in batting stance) is lined up with the "top of the C." I know there's factoring for angles and such, but that looks really really close. 😬

Very late on this thread, but wanted to share that as I'm on the midst of a relo from Wisconsin to New Jersey after becoming empty nesters, the wife and I took a detour on the cross-country drive and decided to catch this tilt at the GABP, making PNC park the only spot left in my NL Central stadium visit list: Was able to get covered seats, 3rd base side for just $35 a pop. Great views, and solid protection from the late game shower. (Wanted to be extra cautious as rainy weather was forecasted.) The District surrounding GABP had a great vibe. After living in Milwaukee for 16 years, I've probably gone to more games at AmFam (nee Miller Park) than at Wrigley, and prefer this than the parking lots (albeit tailgating is cool). Pleasantly surprised by the big crowd, given the Reds are out of it. While a significant portion were Cubs fans, I'd say it seemed like a 70/30 split Reds/Cubs. Compare that to when it's practically 50/50 at AmFam. I'm not sure if it's the layout, but outside of usual gametime noise, it seemed quiet to me. My recollection of being at AmFam is that I'm being constantly bombarded by sound - be it walkup music, or some sort of promotion. They did have the usual videoboard between inning activities - instead of rotating caps, it was skyline chili cups, and the "kiss cam," as well as a cart dragging a T-shirt cannon. But, for the most part, it seemed pretty chill, and I kinda liked it. I was curious about the post "Take Me Out" song, as the Houston Astros would play "Deep in the Heart of Texas," or the Brewers would run, "Roll Out The Barrel." There was a Cincinnati themed song, but I couldn't spot it, and it was abruptly cut off mid play. It was mid 80s and humid, and with little air-flow, GABP felt quite hot - even at twilight and no sun. I get why this place is Coors East. I had to eat the Coneys, just to do the visiting fan thing. And, I won't be doing that again. Overall, good vibes. I could only imagine how rocking that place could be if/when the Reds ever get back in the playoff hunt. (Preferably far far in the future, thanks.)

Zef's shown some fascinating tools; it's just a matter if 1)he can harness them, and 2)can he handle the brighter lights? I'm lean optimistic over the long haul since he's young, but it might be a heckuva lot to expect him to sort it all out in the next few weeks. Somewhat related, my timeline reminded me that 9 years ago on this date Wade Davis closed out the Cardinals to go 31 for 31 in save opportunities at that point in the season. Now that dude was NAILS.

Cubs got 9 games left to optimize the lineup, starters and bullpen. For me, that's: Get Dansby enough reps so he's back to being the elite shortstop and tough 8/9 hitter. Get Busch closer to May (.300/.446/.510) rather than what September has been so far: (.224/.328/.408) Sort out the WC-round rotation. Shota seems to be on "the podium" with his recent run of 4ER over 3 starts; Is it Gausman, Holmes, Shota? Can Boyd or Peterson force themselves into the picture? Get Seiya started up again - he's been .157/.328/.234 in September (Oy.), but in August he was .303/397/.560 (Yay.) Get Zef, Danny and Webb trending in the right direction. See if Cabrera is up for doing a cover version of Sasaki '25 Playoffs. Who is going to be the key pen lefty - Rolison? Theils? (Death is not an option.) Get enough ABs for Matt Shaw and Pedro Ramirez to stay sharp. Is it still Carson then Miggy in the catching platoon? In terms of September Batting: Carson is .237/.275/.289 in 40 PA while Miggy is .364/429/.727 in 16 PA In terms of what Couns hopes to maintain: PCA as MVP Bregs as the Pippen to PCA's Jordan Happ/Taylor LF Platoon

If Tom Ricketts wanted to go another direction, he would've done so already - instead he extended Jed. C'mon dude.

As long as Jed Hoyer is President of the Cubs, I got a hard time imagining he'd want anyone else but Counsell managing the club. Counsell aligns with Jed on the use of analytics, and yet tap into his decorated playing experience to inform a clubhouse culture where everyone is pulling in the same direction.

This. Couns has been like this his whole career (again, living in Milwaukee for the past 15 years, I've just gleaned so many of these complaints from Brewers fans before - "why is he running him out there?!"). 130 games into this season, and he'd be ecstatic if he could get Palencia/Webb/Zeferjahn to be a wrecking crew. Maybe not a classic 7/8/9 situation, but a 3 headed monster that he could deploy in high lev as needed. He's also searching for that lefty: and Theils has had track record but is Father Time finally got the edge on him. Rolison appears to be putting it all together, but he doesn't have playoff reps. Not counting Civale, Rea or Assad (who are swing starter/long relief - and likely only 2 will make the roster), Couns likely would love another to emerge as a medium lev option. Trent Thornton and Tyler Ferguson don't have it, and are treading water in hopes that a miracle can emerge: Shelby Miller seems to be the leading candidate, but he just pitched back-to-back for the 1st time. Result aside, we still await to see how healthy he feels today. Gavin Hollowell? Last night he had a rehab appearance at AAA, and had 1 IP, 1 ER, 2H 2 BB/0 K. That was his first appearance in any game since July 30. He'll need to do more convincing. Eddie Cabrera and Justin Steele are the other options. Both seem like long shots given they still need to get healed up, and executing consistently in a bullpen role. It's gonna be tough, but I'm confident Couns will get it sorted out as best as possible.

Agreed! I click back on this post several times during each game.