macarthur31

As usual, great write up. This year's Cub bench was yearning for a savvy, veteran utility player - and it turned out that they got two of them in Michael Conforto and Pedro Ramirez. I've had the Suzuki/Happ free agency conundrum on the backburner of my mind, and yet I hadn't thought of the Shaw/Ramirez platoon being a viable option in case Jed only wants to bring one of the two corner OFs back.

I share the video not just because the clickbaity title reveals how my algorithm is tilted (though to be fair, the back end of his opening statement after he calls them frauds is, "they're also very good...particularly their offense..."), but rather since the Cubs have similar outcomes to the Brewers, you see them in comparison on the data tables shared. The "too long, didn't watch" of it is: Since 2025, the Brewers have collectively been an elite run producing team because they are disproportiately good vs. pitchers who don't throw hard, don't throw strikes, and don't prevent runs, a.k.a. "The Mitch Keller Theory" because over the course of 162 games, teams have to account for 1400+ innings, and half of those they're facing a pitcher worse that Mitch Keller. OK, here's the Cub side of it: Since '25, the Cubs have the best wOBA against the bottom 48 pitchers (.380) However, unlike the Brewers, they have the best wOBA (.311) against the top 48 pitchers. The Cubs are the 3rd BEST vs pitches below 98 mph. However, they're the 3rd WORST wOBA vs. pitches above 98MPH This is significant given that the playoff pitching ramps up in velo as teams are facing the 1-3 starter and high lev relievers. (Note the average 4S FB during the '25 regular season is clocked at 94.5 MPH v '25 playoffs at 95.8 MPH.) Like the Brewers, the Cubs are super patient - both teams are at the bottom of the Chase Rate% and Swing% tables in 2026, and conversely the top of the BB% rate. While the Brewers are 28th in HRs since 2025 (266), the Cubs are 4th (357). And a scan of the '26 leaderboards show that the Cubs are 6th in SLG (.415) while the Brewers are 20th (.398) All this to say, yeah Yankees series was hella frustrating; but in the aggregate, the Cubs have terrific balance on offense, even with their weakness against elite velo. In light of this, this really affirms why Jed pushed the pedal down at TDL.

Just watched Zeferjahn's postgame interview with Cole and Cliff. Really dig his vibe - just wants the ball every day - "strikeouts are good, but quick innings are even better..." He'll fit in juuuuust fine.

Weren't 17 of the draft picks this past class used towards acquiring more pitching? I'm intuiting that affirms that we have alignment with Zombro and Kantrovitz in the draft room. We may not flood future draft classes with just pitching, but I'm hopeful that by '29/'30 we'll have waves of cost-controlled supinators pushing to be on the big squad. Maybe I'm oversimplifying it, Jason - but perhaps not all of these pitchers pan out as starters; then you hone them to be useful relief pitchers. You augment that with the proven pro scouting/reclamation work that has delivered Jacob Webb and Ryan Rolison this past year, Drew Pomeranz and Brad Keller the previous season, and so on. Of course it's easy to write out in a blog, but that seems like a viable path to get off the cost-controlled pitching treadmill within the next 3-4 seasons.

Perhaps it's projecting a bit too far in the future, and while it's the right thing to do for the '26 campaign - Does this hinder his desire to re-sign with the Cubs on a QO or extension offer? (akin to - $75M/3Y, and maybe mutual option for that 3rd year)

Alfonsin Rosario for Eli Morgan may end up one that Jed wished he could do over, but of course, that one stung more given Morgan was injured and hasn't seemed to be able to get back on track since that injury. But, agreed - you can't hit on all of the moves, and Jed has appeared to win more than lose, and even when there are losses, they haven't been catastrophic. (*knocks wood*)

Not seeing the full lineup, I'm assuming that Couns is starting up the LF platoon in earnest.

Sure - but this'll be the first season Amaya has shown he could stay healthy to handle the platoon (knocks on all sorts of wood as I know the season isn't over yet). Agreed that if he can maintain 105 wRC+ and his handling of the staff, he's a solid #1 backstop for us, but they must be high on Ayers to envision him as Amaya' caddy next season.

If Detmers is still on, then I look forward to seeing the total package we sent for Detmers + Zeferjahn. Mo Baller feels like a bit of an overpay (perhaps the heart talking too much in this moment), but maybe that's offset in whatever got sent for Detmers. (Again, assuming that Detmers is still on)

This suggests to me that Ayers is staying, as Jed/Carter see him as the next Cubs catcher. This also likely means that they weren't sold on Mo Baller's ability to make it there, and Mo hasn't been tearing it up in AAA - this was likely the highest value you were gonna get for Mo? 🤷‍♂️. (I dunno, I'm just trying to make it make sense.)

He's been methodical, y'all. He's got the controllable starter, he got the rental. Both guys slot higher than Shota/Boyd. One more high lev bullpen arm to get.

I know it's not a thing yet, but with a new CBA looming - is it possible that reducing the amount of "controllable years" from 6 to 5 (or lower) is hanging over Jed's assessment?

Hoo boy, any of these 3 would automatically rate as an improvement on Boyd/Shota, and it'd be mission accomplished at the deadline. Shoot, pick up Jacob Latz in a package deal and we're commemorating coins for this TDl alone.

😬

To his credit, his FIP/xFIP is 4.83/4.36 - which would be the biggest gap in his career where his expected outperformed his actual. His next best was '24, where it was 4.64/4.61 (when he logged his most innings - 147). There seems to be a reason why Jed/Couns preferred to keep Rea on retainer (yes, I avoided that pun on purpose), instead of saving the $6M and giving Assad the swing (starter in case of emergency) role. He's under club control through '29, so that also been a saving grace. He has a knack for Houdini escapes, but to sample a quote from Dean Wormer of Animal House, "Low velo, Low K rate, and High hard-hit allowed is no way to go through life (as a starter)."

Kelly's already on the 40-man, so there wouldn't have to be any work to be done there. So, perhaps one of the bullpen guys to the IL? (or DFA?). To your last point, having him posted at the Hotel Zachary now would be less disruptive that chartering the bus for him at some point this weekend. Buckle up.

Unsure if he's comin' to Cubs, but he's goin' somewhere.

https://x.com/sambernero/status/2083194356215824655?s=20 Superfan Sam Bernero captures a click of Antoine Kelly comin' into Wrigley. 🤔

Trading Seiya at TDL in '26, would be akin to trading Bellinger in '23. Both players are indispensable to their team's offensive engine, and unsure how Jed would replace Seiya's RH slug, not just in pure numbers, but in also how he can do it - who else on the team has proven success against elite velo? (Or perhaps to get more meatbally, Seiya is the only player to have multiple HR's off the Miz.). I totally get trying to think about '27 and beyond, but I think extending the QO to Seiya and getting the draft pick is still better than undercutting the '26 Cubs.

Rogers apparently "crossing up" the catcher during garbage time is the perfect tribute to a Framber Valdez start.

What happened to McKinstry this year? He was Temu Zobrist last year for them with 3.2 WAR. And yeah, I agree with ya, Boog - this is rough with 3 innings to go.

His monthly splits: April '26. 110 PA, .188/.282/.271. April '25. 85 PA .270/.365/.554 May '26. 130 PA, .300/.446/.510. May '25 88 PA .234/.330/.390 June '26. 118 PA, .211/.364/.389. June '25 91 PA, .309/.385/.617 July '26. 63 PA. .309/.381/.527. July '25 97 PA. .279/.361/.547 Post ASB'26. 19 PA .353/.421/.706. Post ASB'25. 251 PA .223/.299/.487 vs. LHP '26, 135 PA. .255/.378/.400 vs LHP '25. 95 PA .207/.274/.368. I don't think he'll stay at scorching, but I certainly think he can finish Post ASB '26 higher than he did last year as he's maintained a discerning eye.

Came across this again, and checked out his splits 6/10/26 - 7/19/26 133 PA 6.0% BB Rate / 21.1% K Rate (Through 6/9/26 it was 2.2%/32.4% BB/K) .295/.338/.467, .806 OPS .368 wOBA 115 wRC+

I've been of the mind that for the Owners, the salary cap would be a huge win, but perhaps not enough to derail a whole season. However, they could use it to push for other wins in the CBA. However, included in MLB's original proposal is to pool all the local broadcast rights together to create an uber-package for a streamer, which is only viable if cap/floor is achieved. Currently its just 48% of local revenue (which local TV deals are included) is pooled, and that gets redistributed at about $110M per team. Currently, the Dodgers make $334M per year in just their local TV deal - which means they still get to keep $173M of local tv money to themselves. The other big local TV deals (and what stays home): Yankees $217M ($113M stays); Angels $172M ($89M stays); Our Cubbies $132M ($68M stays); Mets $128M ($67M stays) Red Sox $110M ($57M stays) Tom Ricketts may be quoted as "We love our independence," but consider that in the status quo, the Cubs get $90M share from the current national TV package. While they may "lose" out on keeping $68M for themselves, the Cubs could potentially gain way more in a new super national TV package sold to Netflix or Amazon, and erase the disparity between the Cubs and the Dodgers ($173M-$68M in local tv deal that isn't currently pooled), AND get the salary cap (Ricketts/Cubs already cover "the floor", so that won't be deal breaker for them). Another potential benefit for Ricketts is he gets to shutter Marquee ,or at least doesn't have to cover the costs of running local TV broadcasts (or a network). Evan Drellich (The Athletic) affirms that without cap/floor, then there's no reason for the big markets to join in a national package, as the Dodgers would likely be content to keep cashing those checks in their deal which runs through 2038. Again, as a fan, we don't really benefit as much as the owners will from a more centralized media package that the MLB can sell. The NFL has national broadcasts for all regular season and playoffs, and fans still have to navigate through the different platforms (FOX, NFL, CBS, Amazon, Netflix, etc), and that will likely persist for MLB. However, this may be a key driver in the Owners really committing to getting the cap/floor included - and as a result, I'm moving it over from Defcon 3 to Defcon 2.