macarthur31

To your point, if you go with 2025 numbers in RISP wRC+ (296 hitters with at least 70 PAs): Seiya Suzuki, 168 in 180 PA. 15th best Nico Hoerner. 148 in 172 PA. 36th best Michael Busch. 146 in 141 PA. 41st best Ian Happ. 122 in 170 PA. 110th best Carson Kelly. 110 in 134 PA. 138th best PCA. 106 in 176 PA. 151st best Dansby Swanson. 74 in 174 PA. 249th best Matt Shaw 64 in 106 PA. 267th best I'm also confident that Seiya is closer to 168 wRC+ than 19 wRC+.

Perhaps an alternative: wRC+ with RISP, minimum 30 PA, 247 qualified batters: Suzuki, 19 in 50 PA, 14th worst Matt Shaw: 44 in 32 PA, 26th worst Alex Bregman: 48 in 62 PA, 28th worst. Ian Happ: 72 in 68 PA, 56th worst Dansby Swanson: 75 in 58 PA, 65th worst Nico Hoerner: 83 in 61 PA, 79th worst On the flipside, here's who is comin' thru: Kelly, 155 in 50 PA, 53rd best Ballesteros, 144 in 33 PA, 69th best (noice) Busch, 133 in 62 PA, 82nd best

We're already going over the tax, so at least Ray's in a walk year. He posted 32 starts last year after Tommy John Surgery in '24, so perhaps I'm overthinking the injury history. "Ray for the right price" - for sure. And perhaps that is the tier Jed's gonna end up landing when it's all said and done.

I saw SFG's rough start to the season, and it's tough math to see a path to the playoffs with the Dodgers, Padres and D'backs (shoot, even the Rockies aren't a "layup" like they used to be). Posey seems like a very decisive leader, and them doing this trade hints to me that he's ready to strip this sucker to the studs - and might that be paired with trying to reduce their payroll. (Again, unsure if this has implications, but they just sold a minority stake to a private equity firm). Devers at $30M seems to be a super albatross that I want no part of. Robbie Ray in a walk year to pay the rest of $24.3M? Nah, pass.

Am I crazy for thinking of Logan Webb as a possible front line starter trade target? $18M per year through '28. Granted he's got a knee thing right now, but he's logged 30+ starts the last 4 seasons.

Checked out Lowder's game logs - through his first 6 starts, he was at 3.10 ERA and going 5-6 IP. But, his last start against @PIT - he went 1.1 IP and allowed 8 ER, which ballooned it up to 5.09. Was that the game where PIT had 8 BB in a row, or something? (I'm guessing cause Lowder had 4 BB and his replacement, Phillips gave up 4 BB without getting an out.)

Haven't watched alot of Reds ball, but after seeing them last night - they just seem young and hungry. Tito's the right skipper for them, and I intuit that they're gonna learn alot together. They could grab a wildcard spot. Suarez seems like a terrific veteran anchor for all the youth, but they need 1-2 more of his ilk. I was impressed by the hard contact they were making - Sal Stewart and Elly De La Cruz are gonna be a problem, man. However, in terms of 2026 - they seem like a season away.

Conforto got you covered, my guy.

Great googly moogly, this is suboptimal for Skubal and the Tigers.

Nice call, @Jason Ross on calling PCA's HR during the podcast earlier in the day. (Won't dock you points as you predicted it'd be off Buehler). I was super pleased when PCA drew a lefty on lefty walk in his previous AB, and seeing him deliver in such a high leverage spot confirms that he's trending in the right direction.

Yeah - Randazzo and Willis don't necessarily come off to me as anti-Cubs. I mean, if anything, maybe they're trying to calibrate given they both have deep Cub connections. For me, I could envision them as the Marquee booth in an alternate timeline. During one exchange, Willis mentioned that Randazzo is a Cubs fan. He also acknowledged that he'll always appreciate the Cubs for taking a chance on him. When Dansby laid out to snag that line drive, Willis was audibly laughing in awe. If I was a Dodgers fan, I would be more annoyed - you had Nick Offerman doing the AppleTV promo and if it weren't for the Cubs being so tidy on defense, they would've spent tons more time reflecting on his adoration for the Cubs. Finally, while it's a bit annoying to find the Cubs on another platform, there's something about Apple TV's "Friday Night Baseball" that's been good to the Cubs. In addition to last night, which felt like October vibes in late April: July 4, the Cubs manifested "Rockets Red Glare" by launching franchise record 8 HRs over the Cardinals. I think Michael Busch did 1 WAR's worth of production just off of Miles Mikolas. May 2, the Cubs romped the Brewers at AmFam, and PCA's last blast gave us this timeless meme - "U mad, brewer bro?"

That's exactly the pitch he hit 0-2 to walk the Phils off.

I went back to the original framing of the question/survey, and realized that I didn't consider the playoffs in my assessment. Perhaps its due to the "stay in the now" mentality I hold even as a fan - it's hard for me to envision playoff matchups/performance as I don't know how our players (or our opponents) are trending, as well as the actual roster construction given injury. Overall, I see that Jed has built a team that can win 90+ in the regular season, but will likely need higher ceiling starting pitching to grind through the knockouts. I do wonder about 1) the actual trade market at the deadline and 2) Jed's (Tom's) willingness to really go for it - in terms of willingness to spend more and/or give up talent from that Cubs 2032 team. I tend to lean pessimistic just because that's what I've seen so far in Jed's tenure, but who knows - it's a new year - and we may not even have baseball in '27. Flags fly forever, blah blah blah. Another consideration - the Cubs farm team was rated in the pre-season as on the low end; however, it seems to me that there are some pleasant surprises emerging in the low minors (Owen Ayres, Cole Mathis, etc), as well as seeing our majors adjacent guys like Kevin Alcantara getting homer happy earlier - that also inspires optimism as well.

Overall, I'm optimistic. During this winning stretch against NYM and PHI, what resonates is the "high floor" of the Cubs: we've got professional ABs from 1-9, a very solid pitching rotation, terrific defense and very good speed. Counsell has shown he can cook a hobo stew out of the bullpen, as well as deftly weave in the bench to invite contributions from the whole roster. And as stated in other threads, this has been achieved in spite biblical levels of pitching injury and with Busch, Suzuki and PCA yet to really hit to the "back of their baseball card." Finally, the corps of Swanson, Bregman, Hoerner just exude a steady, commit to the grind, type of leadership. Perhaps some fans want more performative angst in down times (Cue short video of Justin Steele yelling into his mitt "WAKE THE F___ UP"), but over the course of 162+, those are the types I'd want to roll with.

Yeah - I watched that in real time, and I kinda winced a bit as I get Cole will get enthusiastic with some references (like referring to "The Fan" starring Robert DeNiro in the same postgame). However, it appeared that Elise jumped in quick enough to move the conversation forward. Unsure if this is the usual formatting on Marquee's youtube channel, but the posted postgame reaction video didn't have that "CareerBuilder"/LinkedIn comment on it. Cole, Elise and Cliff spent most of that segment trying to make sense of what happened. Cliff was being very nuanced in his commentary - not totally letting Mendoza off the hook, but also acknowledging that decisions can be easier in hindsight. What was most notable to me is at around the 8:10 mark that Cliff finally put his hands up, "I'm not beatin' that dude up...we trying to celebrate the Dub over here, not beatin' this cat up...they gonna do that on SNY." I intuit that Cliff from his own experience of competing in the league, and remembering how vulnerable as a player it is to be accountable, he's trying to be graceful and at least not take any joy from this situation.

Dude gets tons of grief, but I'm not putting that inning on him.

Just scanned Baseball Savant - 35 pitches, 4 at 94MPH, 9 at 93MPH. Good sign he's getting that velo back.

Cubs v. Royals 2/23/26 Rojas hits a solo shot - 413' pulled to left field, 30 degree launch angle, 107.5 MPH Exit Velo off of 96.3 MPH. I'm not sayin, I'm just sayin.

Counsell probably knew that Colin Rea would be on board based on their time together at the Brewers, and then it bore out last season that Rea handled that "break glass in case of long term injury" starter role quite well enough to come back for an encore in '26. Then, I'm reminded of when Mark Leiter acknowledged Javier Assad as "one of the best pitchers in baseball" back in 2023 because of his resilience in executing that swingman role. (Granted, Assad was a newcomer at that time, so he was gonna take anything he could get.). Palencia executing the high leverage/fireman role in the playoffs after being in the closer role shows he has the ability flex. Unsure if he is willing to do that over the course of a whole season, though. Nevertheless, these are the examples of the "kool-aid" drinking that is required to thrive - and it ain't for erry'body.

Craig Counsell has always espoused that pitchers are "out-getters." This is in service to de-emphasizing the attachment to role designations like "closer", or "set up man." And, while primarily this has been applied to the bullpen, as I'm tracking this "6-man rotation" conversation, I'm intuiting that this carrying over to the starting rotation. While Hoyer and Counsell seem loathe to confirm they will deploy a 6-man rotation, @Rcal10has outlined how they will try to deliver the outcomes of a 6-man rotation - sharing the load of effective starter innings (assuming 162 games x 6 innings = 972) across 7 or 8 (Steele's return + Rea or Assad in that equation) candidates. Injuries are inevitable, but perhaps there's a way to execute it to mitigate their risk? And, as quote above - perhaps there are IL trips due to an abundance of caution (or perhaps intentional shelving - which would be difficult to discern, right?) However, there is a high degree of difficulty in executing this, some of which includes the fact that players benefit from role clarity/certainty - not just mentally, but this also factors into their financial futures. (I assume those that start more games, or have perceived durability will do better on the open market.). It's not impossible to do - as traditional baseball is, there are innovations like the "closer" and the "opener"... but I intuit in the near term, this is gonna be a very fluid/nuanced thing.

I, too, am a relative newcomer to the site, and quickly have shared links to Trueblood's articles in my Cub group chats. NSBB has quickly become my go-to. IIRC, I was listening to a Lance Broz pod interviewing Zombro around this time last year, and at that time Brad Keller had just signed on as a minor league contract. Zombro had suggested to "look out for Keller," and right as rain, that dude went from upside flyer to bedrock of the Cubs 'pen. Perhaps, this foretells another case study to look for in '26.

Uhh... I don't know if I should feel good about this.

Shota Imanaga has been recording a podcast in the offseason - SHOTAISM. From the link: I came across it as I follow CubbyMike76 on Twitter, and he had previously did summaries of the podcast. He linked this English version. If you look at CubbyMike's account, you can catch his summaries of further episodes (which include revealing a Spring Training teambuilding activity where he and Dansby had lunch together to learn about each other's journey. Dansby comes off as such a great teammate in that exchange, as well as a cameo from Justin Steele who also shows up in the most Justin Steele way). I was already a big Shota fan, and after listening (and reading those summaries from CubbyMike), I'm even more of a fan of this guy.

Rates and Barrels pod with Eno Sarris and Derek VanRipen spend the first 35 minutes of this ep examining the Bregman signing, as well as the knock on effects for Matt Shaw. Sarris notes that Bregman is 40% better than league average at both walking and not striking out, and that combo is unicorn type stuff. He generates the comps list of 8 other players that have done that in MLB history, and how they did after age 31. There's some serious variance: Lenny Dykstra was the lowest, having generated 5.6 WAR while Joe Morgan put up 46.7 WAR! Sarris notes: "...just not striking out and walking and having defensive value like he does...puts him in a place where the average guy that was his comp after 31 put another 20 wins on the table..." Of course, injuries can happen and it could be cut short - but overall, that's a good list to be on.