Bertz
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Everything posted by Bertz
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Gallen is a decent buy low candidate. If he's the 4th best guy we acquire I'd be pretty happy with him.
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https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7777321/2026/11/12/trevor-rogers-cubs-pitching/ Gimme gimme
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I think too it's easier to plan around this situation where Brown is reinforcements as opposed to a guy in the rotation who you're white knuckling your way through every start hoping he doesn't get hurt again.
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You've got 6 guys in the pen that you can write in....well pen. Palencia, Zef, Webb for late innings Rolison, Miller, Maton for middle innings They're almost certainly going to have at least 1 long reliever, presumably the lesser of Cabrera/Garrett. I would guess they do a second long reliever, but that's not a guarantee, so that last spot is technically open. I would also think there's a chance that, especially given how many guys ended last year on the IL, they bring like 14 or 15 dudes into ST seemingly ticketed for a big league roster spot and then assume a few will get eaten by the pitcher attrition monster. Particularly given the quick ramp up post lockout. And if they absolutely needed to they could option Rolison or Zef or Palencia I also could see trying to do the Harvey/Miller thing again. Sign an AJ Puk or a Brusdar Graderol or a Pete Fairbanks who you know is out until midseason. So I'm very much doubting a Bednar/Morejon type but I think they can squeeze a veteran reliever or three onto this roster.
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That line in Carter's presser about Cabrera, paraphrasing: "Tyler Zombro is calling him every morning asking what he's working on" raised my eyebrows. I know sports are not real life but I would...not feel great about my job prospects if my boss was doing that to me. Everything else sounded positive and mostly frustration with the blisters but that line was hard for me to shake off. But yeah for the team to have sufficient depth enough SPs have to be brought in to where on paper heading into ST at least one of Cabrera/Garret are in the bullpen and Assad is ticketed for Iowa. So I'd expect the team to bring in 4 starters, or at minimum least three starters and one "starter" like an Aaron Civale. I think too it's important context that Colin Rea was dumped and these three guys are being pushed down the depth chart. So I know the fans are going to doom about Jed adding four #5 starters, but realistically I think you're looking at all four guys being north of the Colin Rea line and at least two being better than David Peterson.
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- edward cabrera
- javier assad
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One of the things that has been mentioned the last few years is how well the Cubs handle Japanese players off the field. A bunch of little things like post-game meals, family accommodations, etc. It sounds like they basically asked Yu Darvish "how can we do better at this stuff" and then put it all into action. That's part of why Yu has evangelized for Chicago even after leaving. All else being equal you'd probably like to have another Japanese player around. so don't be surprised if the team double or triple dips in that market, but broadly aside from the Dodgers (who, to be clear, have some institutional geographic advantages) I don't expect the Cubs to lose a recruitment on soft factors.
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Yeah I think there's essentially four buckets in FA, and the idea should be to to pick 1 from each: - The good old guys (Gausman, Holmes, Gray) - The guys with a question mark or two but obvious upside (Taira, Mahle, Pivetta, etc.) - The boring but still pretty good LHPs (Peterson, Griffin, Boyd, Shota) - The buy low types or explicit swingmen (Bubic, Sandoval, Flaherty, Civale, May could fit here) Trevor Rogers doesn't fit into any of these buckets but I'd love to keep close on him still.
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The last three years Joe Ryan has a 3.59 ERA with peripherals to match. That is good certainly but we're really stretching the definition of an "Ace" if that's what we're calling one.
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Listening to Carter's presser last night it feels like the over/under on SPs is 3.5, and I'd probably take the over. And with that the added context that they bailed on Colin Rea on a market rate deal.
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The Cubs way back in the day (during the 2021 tear down?) were connected to Campusano I believe. That said I'd be surprised. Fermin sucks worse than some generic guy you could go get in FA, though he does have a MiLB option at least. And Campusano is fun but feels like he would (rightfully) cost more than the team should be spending for how small of a hole this is.
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Thanks for posting this. Really good stuff. Some other things that stood out to me - Probably the most confident I've ever heard Carter. He was very impressive here - Probably some copium but about as positive of a Ben Brown update as I could have hoped for - Very much did not sound like they're gonna roll with Amaya and Ayers at catcher. I don't think Kelly's back but they're going to bring an adult in - He didn't shut the door on anything but sounded like he views Wiggins as a reliever - The line about Tyler Zombro texting Edward Cabrera every day...I'm going to try not to read too much into that but raised an eyebrow - Bruce Levine asks a lot of meandering questions and you can tell Carter's thinking "WTF are you talking about" until he finally lands on a point - They clearl have a Japanese pitcher circled as a priority add. Presumably Taira but they're 100% adding a Japanese SP this winter
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Yeah. Neck surgery in a vacuum is obviously not good news, but if my options are surgery recurring mystery injury I'm taking the former. It also gives team building clarity. Like with Horton you cannot count on him for next year, full stop. You probably will get some innings and they're probably going to be good but it's essentially a hypothetical trade deadline addition.
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FWIW, if we assume there's $100M to play with and the MLBTR contract estimates are gospel, this is what I'd do this winter: Trevor Rogers - 5 yr / $115M Kevin Gausman - 2 yr / $44M Kaima Taira - 4 yr / $72M Trent Grisham - 1 yr / $13M Kris Bubic - 1 yr / $12.5M Gary Sanchez - 1 yr / $5M George Springer - 1 yr / $5M And then maybe squeeze in someone like Pete Fairbanks or AJ Puk on a rehab deal if $$$ permits. If money's a little tighter, say closer to $80M to spend, swap Bubic for someone more like Aaron Civale (1 / $4M?) and swap Rogers for someone like Holmes (3 / $45M) or Foster Griffin (3 / $39M). But ultimately IMO it's a spread the money kind of winter both because of roster need and also because that’s what the market lends itself to.
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This market is deep and flat. I don't think you can wait til post lockout to do all your shopping, but I do think you can hunt for deals and lean pretty heavily on your model. Get 2 good SPs and your starting caliber OF pre lockout and then hunt for deals coming out of the break feels like a good strategy IMO.
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More callously, I think you'd probably get the same/similar revenue by jacking up prices on remaining games to compensate but remove costs of gameday staff and operations from 3-4 games. The rest, cleaning up of logistics, etc. makes the players and the FOs happy but for the owners that's just a cherry one top.
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Aside from not getting a veteran at C (which I would guess in practice really means no Kelly / Stephenson, not necessarily no one even a tier down) and Holmes being the vet they want to keep instead of Gausman this is basically the offseason I've been advocating for over the past month 🤷♂️
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Steamer Projected WAR per 200 IP Logan Gilbert - 4.0 Trevor Rogers - 3.7 Reid Detmers - 3.6 Sonny Gray - 3.5 Joe Ryan - 3.5 Nick Pivetta - 3.4 George Kirby - 3.3 Foster Griffin - 3.1 Kevin Gausman - 3.1 Kris Bubic - 3.1 Jack Flaherty - 3.0 And then an assload of FA's between 2.5 and 3. I don't actually think burning a Shaw or Ramirez is the right move when you cam just throw money at the problem for comparable players.
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MLBTR has it right at 60 2/55 for Gray 3/45 for Holmes 4/72 for Taira I'd guess that's a little light on Holmes (he's gotta be closer to $20M per year, right?) but it's a fair assumption.
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The Brown thing can potentially cut both ways. Not being cleared to throw yet is obviously bad, but "surgery hasn't been ruled out yet" could be VERY bad or it might mean there's a definitive cause identified? Like if you told me Brown will be out til the ASB but they've got this horsefeathers firmly addressed I'd gladly take that tradeoff. Jed passing on King and Peralta is unequivocally good news. If you're sitting out Skubal because it has potential for ending up a boondoggle then you can't turn around and spend low 9 figures on a #4 starter because he used to be an ace.
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Wasn't the fanbase similarly horsefeathering all over Trapilo at this time last year?
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2026-27 Offseason Cubs Top Prospects Lists
Bertz replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
That's a really talented list. I have mentioned this before, but I think there's a distinction between the Cubs' low ranked farms in like 2019 vs 2022. Late in the Theo era the farm was Hoerner/Davis/Amaya/Marquez and barely anything behind them. Early in the Jed era, post 2016 selloff, the farm was still ranked low, but because everyone was a million miles away, NOT because there weren't any good players. This list is closer to the latter than the former IMO. -
League Average for GB rate tends to hang out around 42-43%. So yeah I think anything over 45% you'd consider a notable GB pitcher, Holmes and Peterson were 1st and 10th last year among pitchers with at least 100 IP. Somny Gray at 46% (ranked #22) pretty notable as well.
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Grisham and Ward are full time-ish players, you're not getting them in the door to rebuild their value in a straight platoon. If they struggle, sure, but not from day 1. That said they're the two best buys on the market IMO. Grisham makes more sense for our roster but I'd be happy with either.
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Shortening the season feels like it's at near the top of the list of most likely things to come out of the new CBA. Only question is 154 or 156 IMO. But a dedicated off day every week feels like something everyone wants.
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Morosi's not the firmest source but worth noting (I generally expect very few big trades regardless of team control)
