Bertz

Jazz is a fun player and seems like a cool dude and is probably a smart buy low option for some team. That said A) How is him playing LF going to help him rebuild value? B) What's the incentive for us to add him instead of just running Ramirez/Shaw out there? He was a similar hitter to both guys last year and because of everyone's ages projects to be the worst hitter of the three in '27

Yeah I'm still leaning no on this but as time goes I'm softening to a "hmm....maybe". And I think a lot of it comes down to timing. Pros: - Not only is Skubal a 6 win SP, he's a 6 win SP who would probably replace 180 innings of replacement level pitching if he came here. Maximum juice to squeeze ratio here - There's just no middle ground on the market. Trevor Rogers is the clear #2 SP on the market and he's going to give you right around 3 wins? - The market is deep, and Jed has a lot of money to play with (roughly $100M?). This is a winter where you can take a portfolio approach. Pay a premium for Skubal, and play the "try to get a great deal" game otherwise, something you might not have the leverage for if your top signing is Michael King - Skubal costs no prospects or draft picks, a big deal for a team whose farm is in recuperation mode Cons: - I don't think we currently have the payroll or the farm to shrug it off if Skubal ends up being a disaster contract like Corbin Burnes or Jason Heyward. - The Red Sox got 1 star level season out of David Price, we got 2 out of Lester and 1 out of Darvish. Even if he's not an outright disaster most likely by around year 3 of a deal we'll be at a point we'd rather have the money back to spend on other stuff. That's annoying on a 5-6 year deal but WOOF on a 8-10 year deal - You are certainly cutting corners with your other offseason signings if you add Skubal. Maybe that is a sign of confidence in the internal options at SP (there is a straightforward glass half full case for each of them) or OF? But it's the reality given how many guys have rolled off the roster and need to be replaced

I'm generally for just getting your work done on the FA market this year instead of burning trade capital but Eovaldi probably wouldn't cost much player wise and I'd be all over him

I really like Gary Sanchez at catcher. The bat is potent enough that you don't hate having him be part of the 1B/DH mix which IMO helps thread the needle of "Amaya and Ayers are the ideal combo at C for both the short and long term" and "there's substantial risk in trusting one catcher whose legs are made of glass and another who was in Low A a year ago to successfully get you throw a 162 game MLB season."

I don't think Teoscar is a great fit. At this point he's a should-be DH who demolishes lefties and is just okay against righties. That would not be the worst thing in the world to have at DH, but it doesn't really complement what we have in house currently. The veterans in the lineup already skew right, and the kids that are looking to carve a role are generally better RHH. Second, while I'm sure the Dodgers would throw in some money you can probably just as easy find that guy on the FA market for cheaper? Taylor Ward has a similar skillset, is a little younger, and is looking at a pillow deal. Randal Grichuk and Ramon Laureano have been more up and down but fill a similar niche. Gary Sanchez or Paul Goldschmidt can't play the OF but have similar bats, etc.

I wonder if Matt Wallner could be had for a song. Absolutely disastrous 2026, but career .238/.353/.496 hitter vs. RHP with 33 dongs per 600 PAs. He is going into arb 1 and out of options, while the Twins have a full OF/DH situation assuming Walker Jenkins is in MLB from Day 1

Kohl Franklin hit FA, I wonder if he's hoping to try and nab a 40 man spot. Hopefully he finds his way back

I would expect two long relievers. As discussed there's a lot of fragility in the rotation, and Assad is the only optionable SP we have who you'd be comfortable starting a game in April. So I think one of Brown/Cabrera/Garrett as one LRP (I'd guess Garrett), and then one TBD acquisition. So the bullpen is pretty set if Jed so chooses: Palencia Zef Webb Rolison Miller Maton 2 aforementioned LRPs You can still sign a short reliever if you want, inevitably someone in the spring will end up on the IL, but on paper I there's enough to go on Opening Day.

Yeah your last paragraph is what I'm really worried about. Last go around the owners were loudly and proudly the bad guys. They negotiated in this cartoonish Jack Donaghy-esque manner until the last minute, and then had to cave. If they force the Players into that "Party if No" position not sure the players come out victorious again this cycle. And realistically it's going to be hard for the players to escape that position because they're mostly looking for incremental changes rather than systemic ones. I hadn't thought about that but it's possible. Also doesn't help their case that Trump loudly and bluntly said he doesn't give a horsefeathers about this issue so they're not going to get support from that direction either. The salary cap has long felt IMO like an Overton window sort of play rather than a real goal they expect to get done this cycle. Reason being is the owners need the players on board for media rights changes and I believe expansion. So my expectation was this strawman was being built up explicitly to be traded for those two things at the 11th hour. Seeing the owners be vaguely reasonable this early (even if their proposal certainly has a poison pill or three) makes me think either: A) They really think they can get a cap over the finish line if they negotiate in something resembling good faith or B) Whether because of political climate, change in membership (my guess), or something else the owners no longer wish to arbitrarily drag this fight out for 3 months

Is King a frontline starter? I'll be transparent my comparison was very much coming from a place of criticizing King and rather than glazing Assad. King was a legit front of the rotation starter in 23/24, and he looked like that guy again for 14 innings this October. But overall he has been aggressively mediocre the last two seasons: - His strikeout rate is exactly average at 22.1% - His walk rate is a sliver worse than average at 9.0% - His groundball rate is a little above average at 42.8% - He has a very low hard hit rate against...but also a well worse than average barrel rate - Unsurprisingly given the above, all the ERA estimators peg him as mediocre - He gets a little below average chase, and is a little better than average at in zone whiffs, so it doesn't look like there are a bunch of K's waiting to be unlocked with an approach change (or simple regression) - In 2026 Stuff+ gave him scores of 95 / 101 / 97 for Stuff / Location / Pitching, Pitchbot accordingly went 50 / 53 / 51 with an estimated ERA of 4.55 - Steamer's not my favorite projection system, but it has him as the 84th best SP in the league heading into next year. One spot ahead of Edward Cabrera I just don't see a top of the rotation starter anywhere in here. It requires buying too hard into his raw ERA or too hard into a couple of playoff outings, both of which are no nos.

Miguel Amaya has played in 100 games in a season once since the start of COVID and Owen Ayers is close but probably not major league ready yet. Add in the fact that catcher attrition is already so high and you absolutely have to bring a 3rd guy in. I think you avoid a multi-year deal, but you need someone capable of being at least a low end starter. And that's available, you can probably get any of Gary Sanchez, James McCann, or Kyle Higashioka on a 1 year deal.

xFIP / xERA / DRA in 2026 4.37 / 4.47 / 4.51 4.33 / 4.40 / 4.70 One of those pitchers is 2026 Michael King, the other is 2026 Javier Assad

Honestly, shockingly detailed and productive proposal considering where we are on the calendar. Lots of little details like minimum salary and such addressed too Like obviously the cap is and should be a non starter, but there is legitimately good stuff in here. Last go around the owners more or less wrote "*Fart Noise*" on a piece of paper and faxed it over until February when they finally started taking things seriously. It's honestly weirdly unnerving. Like is this a sign that they're confident they'll get this over the line? Or is this the opposite? Basically Moreno and Monfort dipping out made it so there's no longer enough appetite for a 100 day labor battle?

It's not a disaster or anything but it is definitely not great to lose Kanzler and Banner back to back considering the overlap. That said a winter where you have to take a 3 month siesta where you cannot not talk to anyone on the 40 man is probably as good of a time as any to have to deal with this.

Expected as his projected arb number is less than that $3.3M

As someone pretty vehemently against throwing a lot of resources at the position player group, some lesser bats I like, first two guys warranting a starting job and then two guys warranting the Conforto role Trent Grisham - He got BABIP'd pretty hard last year, and probably deserved a wRC+ closer to 115. His WAR is also weighed down by having clearly aged out of CF. I don't know if him playing so much is him being stubborn or the Yankees being desperate, but he'd probably be a plus defender in LF. Cherry on top is he turned 30 two days ago, so he's 2-3 years younger than most of his peers on the market. And if you don't trust me Steamer has him as the 4th best OF in the class basically tied with Bauers Taylor Ward - At this time last year Seiya, Arozarena, and Taylor Ward were all essentially the same player. Ward had a weird half season with Baltimore, trading all his power for a big improvement in K/BB, and then a disastrous half season in Seattle. He's obviously not on the same level as Seiya and Randy anymore, but I'd guess he's still a starting caliber bat who I'd be happy to give a 1 year pillow deal George Springer - I'm generally looking at LHH bats to compliment the kids we have, though Springer has turned into a reverse splits guy in his twilight. He had a crappy first half this past season, but he broke his toe in April whoch I'm guessing deserves a chunk of the blame. Steamer projects him to a 111 wRC+, and I'd guess he'd be slightly better than Conforto in the Conforto role Jesus Sanchez - I believe he's a minor league free agent? He has a 112 wRC+ against RHP the last three years, and gets to it with a little more thunder in the bat than some of the alternatives. He's also 29 years old, so again a good bit younger than the alternatives. He's a total putz in the OF so ideally he'd mostly DH, but I think hes a good cheap strong side platoon option there and you can dream on a bit more. Also if I'm right about him being a MiLB FA I think we could stash him at Iowa, so add him on top of another DH rather than instead of

Yeah I think signing one of the olds is a smart way to get some talent without adding a lot of years. I'd guess retaining Holmes is a little more likely than signing Gray, but I'd put it north of 50/50 that we end up with one of the Gray/Holmes/Gausman trio.

The Athletic has a wrap up article of all the moves today. Nothing too insightful or earth shattering, but this caught my eye

Rogers is the only one worth considering with the QO attached IMO

That's nifty, not sure why he agreed to that

Additional thoughts: - Broadly the Cubs shouldn't sign a QO free agent this winter. But similar to my "hmm, maybe..." about Skubal if this is all Trevor Rogers costs I think that contract might still be +EV? - I've been railing against Freddy Peralta a lot the past month and if this is what the market ends up lookinh like I haven't been railing against him enough - I've been pretty anti-Bauers but if he costs this and isn't tagged with a QO I'd do it

I'm generally anti-Skubal, I just fundamentally don't like putting that much money into one pitcher. That said: - If the market is this depressed, it is not an either/or between adding Skubal and otherwise filling needs on the roster like it would be in a normal year - If the market is this depressed, you can buttress him with 1-2 year deals and avoid weighing down the roster with long term contracts. Like I'd argue 10 years for Skubal, 1 for Sonny Gray, and 1 for Matt Boyd results in "cleaner books" long term than 4 each for Trevor Rogers, Michael King, and Freddy Peralta, while also giving you more 2026 WAR and costing comparable 2026 salary - With the Mets in disarray, the Yankees not needing SP, and the Dodgers seeming like they might sit back and lick their wounds until the CBA dust settles, this might be the best opportunity in a long time to grab a superstar FA - The SP need is so acute that you're getting full freight on a Skubal signing. This is not signing Alex Bregman with Matt Shaw, Pedro Ramirez, and Jefferson Rojas in tow. If we call Skubal a 6 WAR SP he's probably at least a 5 win upgrade on current options

So using Ben's numbers, you can get this for $95m: Tarik Skubal Kaima Taira Kevin Gausman Carson Kelly Trent Grisham God damn. Add in a Michael Conforto type and you're right at $100M.

These numbers feel really low. But if this is what the market actually looks like: - You 1000% need to sign Skubal - No way in hell can you QO Happ or Boyd - Probably plan on signing 4 or even 5 pitchers - I'd totally bring Carson Kelly back

That's a great change. I don't think either guy is "hold up the rest of the offseason" good but anything to give GMs less reason to artificially wait around.