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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    Bregman and Swanson each have 3.2 WAR after tonight. With about a quarter of the season left each guy is likely to end up right around 4 WAR. Really good stuff for not just the short term but the long term. Early June when both guys were slumping those contracts were starting to look a little scary.
  2. Bertz
    Even if the Cubs don't completely catch up, getting the lead down to three means the Brewers have to play with some urgency. Can't fart around and skip a Miz start, can't be cute with your relievers, etc. There's an extent to which you can punt on the Battle because you're focused on the War when you have a big lead that isn't on the table in a tighter race.
  3. Bertz
    Shelby Miller with a perfect inning and 3 Ks He's an adult so he should beat up on guys at AA but we've already verified his stuff is back and outings like this make you think whatever rust there is is limited
  4. Bertz
    Bregman's at bats when he's on a heater are incredible. He turns into a precog and knows identifies the pitch immediately out of the hand
  5. Bertz
    There's almost no chance the team juat pencils Ramirez into LF and hangs the Mission Accomplished banner. That said I could see a volume approach to the outfield corners. Sign two platoon guys, let's call it JJ Bleday and George Springer, and figure between the five of Bleday / Springer / Shaw / Alcantara / Ramirez you'll end up with two outfielders and most of your DH and non-C bench at bats.
  6. Bertz
    Caleb Durbin has also now passed Harrison in WAR This is not a dunk on the Brewers, but between this and Priester you do have to wonder if Brewer's pitcher magic has a blood price
  7. Bertz
    10,000% Peterson is a very good swingman, but he's much closer to Assad and Rea than Cabrera IMO. If team control was flipped and Peterson was here for 2 more years while Cabrera was in his walk year I'd maybe consider giving David preference? But absolutely not as is.
  8. Bertz
    I don't see anything especially lucky about Peterson? Unless you're doing some arbitrary endpoints nonsense to cut off that disaster start against the Cardinals. His ERA is running ahead of his peripherals but by the same amount you'd expect playing in front of this defense.
  9. Bertz
    He did just ramp back up from injury, might be dead arm or something, but I'd be nervous if it was our guy
  10. Bertz
  11. Bertz
    Yeah I'd buy either, and honestly I wonder if the fact that either makes a lot of sense means it's both? Get some useful innings and build his confidence and then hopefully you can go into next year feeling better about him as big league depth even if you're nervous about innings.
  12. Bertz
    I saw "Wiggins will come in relief" and was assuming more of a piggyback situation. That said the velo was up and he was effective so I won't complain. We're very much in beggars can't be choosers mode currently
  13. Bertz
    That was Thornton's best velo of the year by a decent margin
  14. Bertz
    I would like to keep Seiya but it's very much NOT not a situation where you should do something irresponsible. Like hard pass on 5 years or 9 figures
  15. Bertz
    I am....not surprised that this is your take
  16. Bertz
    It's exceedingly unlikely that the lockout is all that long and the team shouldn't operate their roster in a way where they're worse off when the far more likely thing happens.
  17. Bertz
    I don't remember where I saw it but swore he was pitching at Tenn because of it
  18. Bertz
    https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7504201/2026/08/11/cubs-catchers-miguel-amaya-owen-ayers/ Sharma makes it sound like we're probably going to see Ayers as a September callup
  19. Bertz
    We've gotta stop these early June arbitrary endpoints every year Cubs have probably been a smidge lucky this full year, but not anything worth fretting over. They're due like maybe a bad series full of at'em balls. - Wrigley has played slightly hitter friendly this year. Just 2 points of wOBA, but when we're talking about 12 being "missing" it's worth noting - Cubs lead the league in pulled fly balls, which helps you overperform this measure - Cubs are 10th in the league in sprint speed, which also lets you overperform (more infield hits, more extra bases on hits to the outfield) - Cubs are 3rd in the league in wOBA, tied for 5th in xwOBA. Even if for simplicity's sake we zero out the entire gap it does not exactly become a paper tiger scenario
  20. Bertz
    I expect this was just Jed being in on every SP with a pulse rather than anything that had legs, but FWIW this is more or less how the Kyle Tucker trade started.
  21. Bertz
    I have been hard on Kepley but if he keeps things up at AA it's a lot harder to pick nits
  22. Bertz
    It's interesting comparing the system to last year at this time. I feel like a year ago the top 10 looked great and there were another half dozen guys I was happy to have in my 20 and then it cleared out FAST before you had to resort to the complex leagues or relievers like Riley Martin. This year it's easier to get to 20, but the top 10 is the weakest it's been since '21/'22.
  23. Bertz
    Yeah I think some of this is just random ebbs and flows, it is unfortunately not weird for pitchers to not have their peripherals and their results always come in sync, and he was due a healthy bit of positive regression. Do I just get a monkey's paw and he throws up a 30% K-rate and a 5.50 ERA his next half dozen starts? The stuff models both think his fastball is a little worse despite the velo being fine. And to your point he's probably not being as fine command-wise. But there's nothing glaring here. A 15% K-rate from a non-elite groundball guy is absolutely not a playoff starter though so while I'm not sweating it now I will be if we're still here in a month.
  24. Bertz
    Josiah HartshornCade TownsendOwen AyersJaxon WigginsEthan ConradKane KepleyCaden SorrellMyles BaileyBrooks CapleKaleb WingWill SandersJames TriantosÁngel CepedaJose EscobarNazier MuléJostin FlorentinoDominick ReidDerniche ValdezDylan BlomkerCarson Jasa
  25. Bertz
    Getting a little nervous about Boyd's lack of swing and miss since he came off the IL. At first I was like "whatever, he's due some good luck from his pre-IL stint." (when he was striking out the world and had an ERA north of 6) But we're at six weeks now. He's been throwing A TON of first pitch strikes, and his GB rate is up a little bit, so maybe it's just a natural consequence of hammering the zone? It's not a five alarm fire but I've got an eyebrow firmly raised.
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