Bertz

This is right on, and two other things I'd throw out there on top of it: 1. The minor league ball was INSANELY juiced this year. Here are the league ERAs for each Cubs affiliate: Myrtle Beach - 4.70 South Bend - 5.24 Knoxville - 4.83 Iowa - 4.82 On top of that Iowa definitely and I believe Knoxville are hitters parks even within their leagues. So legitimately having an ERA under 5 makes you an above average performer in the current environment. Brooks Caple's 3.24 ERA in the Southern League is a 69 ERA-, which for reference is what Zack Wheeler put up in MLB this year 2. Things were horsefeathering dire at this time a year ago. Heading into last offseason Wiggins was consensus top 100, Reid and Wing were nice but hadn't thrown a pro pitch, and Sanders/Florentino were the only other guys who might sniff an org top 20. There's no one currently at the level of Wiggins then, but there's 2-3x more guys now that look like they have MLB talent than there were then. In terms of trajectory it's clearly arrow up

Just watching the games it's been clear Thieneman has been everywhere but damn I did not realize he was doing this

Good timing $165M assuming no options get picked up. Webb's is a lock to be picked up but also Austin and Arias are obviously going to be non tendered. So $165M still seems like a good nice round number to go with. They ended last year st $265M so again a nice round $100M to spend if payroll is flat.

Very true. Then annoyingly in the opposite direction the CBA induced 3 month FA/trade moratorium means there's some added value of getting some guys in the door ASAP. I think since they need SO MUCH pitching you probably plan to get at least 1 ideally 2 SPs and ideally an outfielder in hand before the break. It's extremely unlikely the Cap/LT/whatever salary suppressing mechanism is south of about $250M, so call it $60-70M you can safely spend before the break?

I don't believe the A's have a POBO so this would be a huge promotion. I wonder if Banner getting this kind of smoke means if/when Carter gets poached Banner's gonna get promoted as the backfill.

The tradeoff to signing a guy like Morejon for the pen is having a guy like Rea in the rotation even before there's an injury.

Happ to me feels like an obvious yes, even if payroll stays flat. This FA market on the position player side is absolute dog water. Your alternatives in the outfield are: A) Overpay for Suzuki or Arozarena's mid 30's coming off of career years they clearly won't repeat B) Buy low on a guy like Grisham or Ward or Varsho or Robert C) Try to Voltron together an outfielder out of platoon bats C wouldn't be the worst thing in the world most years, but feels like a bad idea when you're handing the other open OF spot to the internal youth options. B I actually like, but you're either not saving a ton of money from Happ (Grisham, Ward) or buying really low which goes back to being too risky with the uncertainty around the other spot. Boyd's where the real debate lies IMO. It's partly a player evaluation question: how much of Boyd's decline (particularly in whiffs) was a temporary issue because of the freak knee injury and how much was permanent (whether for age or the knee)? But it's also a money question. The team probably needs 3 SPs this winter. If you have $50M earmarked for those three pitchers, Boyd at $23M is a non starter. If you have $90M, then he's a slam dunk. I'd probably lean against extending the offer to Boyd. The depth in the FA SP market is actually pretty strong, and I suspect payroll will be back in the $260M range. But broadly I think it's a close enough call that either way the team goes I'll probably shrug my shoulders and say fair enough.

Interesting. I would have thought Kelly warranted a 40 man spot, especially since he still has an option. Not going to get too worked up about roster minutiae this winter though, the (likely) lack of a Rule 5 draft changes the game pretty significantly

Yeah I wouldn't throw major resources at the pen. The three back-end guys are legit good. Rolison/Maton/Miller is probably a fine middle relief crew. And I expect us to do two long relief guys which will round out the pen. And then Iowa actually has some depth. Matchup types like Ferguson and Hollowelll and Kelly, young SPs who will likely break into MLB via the pen (Wiggins, Sanders, etc.), plus promising injury returnees in Hodge and Riley Martin. If the team has more money to spend than I expect then certainly add someone. But otherwise just do your typical waiver roulette stuff and save your dollars for (primarily) the rotation.

He was also pretty chronically injured before the last few years, and added a whole 2.5 MPH to his fastball this year. I tend to be somewhat nihilistic towards pitcher injuries, but yeah even beyond general reliever risk Morejon seems pretty risky.

Among other things I don't want to necessarily cede that "streaky = bad"? Dansby was 10th in shortstop WAR this year and if not for the IL trip played at a 4.2 win pace. While the bat is not great it's fairly average for the position. He's old enough that you do expect decline, but not old enough where you expect him to fall off a cliff. He is getting a little more platoon-y as he gets older, and I'd guess losing time to injury is going to be a more regular occurrence. So I am personally quite happy to have Swanson on hand and Pedro Ramirez as a complement in reserve. I don't view it as an either/or at all.

The Zombro thing is fair, the timing would be right to bring in one of his guys if that's been the plan. Though honestly while I'm optimistic for Zombro I think Hottovy's got more wins on the board we can point to (to the degree we outside can ever parse these things out to individuals), so if we're forced to choose sides I'm probably team Tommy for now. I also don't suspect this is an area Matt has scuttlebut on. His sourcing seems to be fairly mid level and definitely not in uniform with the Cubs, and higher with the Twins and Brewers. So palace drama here in Chicago doesn't feel in his wheelhouse.

Do you....do you not think 2026 helps prove the point about pitcher attrition?

I don't expect that this team is short sighted enough to dump Hottovy over some HR rate silliness

Ranger Suarez money? He's not as accomplished but the stuff is better and he's the only FA SP who checks all three of these modest boxes: - Was good and healthy in 2026 - Does not have an injury history a mile long - Is under 30

Some Random names I like, and would guess I'll be much higher on than consensus. Pitchers Kevin Gausman - My #1 pitching target this winter. His pedestrian ERA belied how well he pitched for us. It sounds like he and his family really really loved Toronto and he might head back there. But if he doesn't end up north of the border he absolutely needs to settle down here Tyler Mahle - It's gone under the radar a bit because the Braves are so otherwise interesting, but they made Mahle drop his arm angle a bit snd start throwing way more splitters and he magically turned into a #2 starter. He probably gives some of that back when the league gets more tape on his new form, but still he looks like a quality starter going forward Jack Flaherty - There's not some super compelling "he was unlucky" or "here's one weird trick to fix him" guy. Instead it's kind of the opposite. Under the hood he appears to be largely the same guy he was two years ago, but the results have gone sideways. Feels like there's a good buy low opportunity here, and even if there's no rebound to be had he's a quality back-end guy Position Players Gary Sanchez - One of the tough things with bench bats is beyond money it's tough to get a quality guy to come to your team if there's no playing time to be had. Gary has enough oomph in his bat to be part of the RHH 1B/DH equation, and so I'm hoping he'd be willing to come be part of a crowded catcher room Trent Grisham - Had a bit of a messy year due partially to bad batted ball luck but also proving that he's fully aged out of CF. If Happ doesn't take the QO I'd really try and get Grisham on a pillow deal (and wouldn't scream about going multi-year on him). I think his true talent is likely a ~110 wRC+ with notable but not damning L/R splits and strong COF defense....who's that sound like? Jesus Sanchez - My favorite Conforto alternative. He's much more of a free swinger, but that comes with added juice in the bat. I have no idea what the hell happened to him in the field, but like Conforto this year I assume he'd mostly DH anyway. Also at 29 might be young enough for a full rebound to everyday player

"This team will never XYZ" stuff is silly but I definitely do not think this winter is one where they're going to go ham on one player. There’s too many roster spots to fill, the farm is convalescing, and with the lockout you cant count on getting a bunch of slick deals in February to try and help balance a mega deal.

Woah Jhon Cabral 8 of his 12 fastballs were triple digits

Yeah I've been thinking Shota to the Giants feels like an amazing fit for both sides

Interesting, Stuff+ doesn't normally like Cub sinkers and changeups even if they're good (I've always assumed because they lean hard on SSW but Greg Z o someone would know better). Wonder if we start seeing that change as Zombro's acquisitions start percolating. But broadly if Reid's got a fastball that works, regardless because of shape or velo, that's the biggest question mark around him addressed. Hopefully it sticks and wasn't just one really good night.

Yeah it being right down the line makes it closer but balls hit 40+ degrees are usually only out if the wind is helping or it's a Schwarbomb hit like 118 mph

13 whiffs if I'm counting right? In 4 innings in this environment, hell yeah

Man if we get a Padres Dodgers NLCS that will go so damn hard. Those two teams horsefeathering hate each other

Let's all be clear eyed that the AFL is very very hitter friendly. Also the experience level varies widely but tends to average out on roughly the A+/AA border. So like Reid's probably gonna have a 5 something ERA and that's okay. Snell probably ought to have a .900+ OPS and even though he's a baby Cabada probably ought to get north of .700