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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    Detmers fits right in with the Cabrera/Baz/Gore trio from last year. So the question is what is the premium for doing a deal at the deadline vs. the offseason. I don't think Wiggins gets the deal done right now but I do think Rojas/Ayers/Triantos does.
  2. Bertz
    Happ should straight up not be in the starting lineup against LHP. It's fine to not give him the Ballesteros treatment and pull him out of games in like the 5th because some innocuous left reliever comes in, but it's a reasonably sized opportunity.
  3. Bertz
    ESPN says the Yankees are open to moving on from Camilo Doval. I'd love to take advantage of that.
  4. Bertz
    Not the flashiest outing for Coppola but 1 BB for him in 5 innings at this new level is great
  5. Bertz
    Fernando Cruz dong!
  6. Bertz
    Selling high on Pedro Ramirez is not the worst idea in the world, but I'm skeptical there is a pitcher readily available to necessitate it. Like sure you can glass half empty every prospect the Cubs have, but that's just the nature of prospects. There's maybe a half dozen guys league wide at any time that you can't do that with. And it's just as easy to talk down every controllable SP available from Joe Ryan (likely bum elbow, long standing homerun problem) to Reid Detmers (track record; issues from the stretch). Except for the Tigers dangling Skubal, GMs are not going to get an extensive list of top ~75 prospects to pick from when they make their pitchers available. We saw it last winter Caissie was available and the Marlins pulled the trigger but the Marlins Rays/Nats had to settle for quantity.
  7. Bertz
    He wouldn't be, and I mean that much more as a dig at Wacha than a compliment to Taillon
  8. Bertz
    God if we get Harvey back for the final ~quarter of the season and the playoffs that alone would cancel out a healthy chunk of the bad injury luck from this year.
  9. Bertz
    Choosing not to read into Will Sanders being skipped
  10. Bertz
    Well that's a fun way to kick off trade szn
  11. Bertz
    Looks like we will miss all three of Ohtani/Snell/Glasnow when we face the Dodgers the week after next
  12. Bertz
    Yeah the fact they were the same day is WEIRD. They have either been told to expect a trade or the polar opposite they are pulling a page put of the Willson Contreras playbook and just trying to get a rise on social media because they think it's funny. Or I guess the 3rd option of Alcantara's being sincere and Mo's being mocking.
  13. Bertz
  14. Bertz
    Pirates are legit a great counterargument to the "we don't need WAR we need OFFENSE" arguments of the last three years. They have the same wRC+ and a lightyears better starting rotation than the Cubs but they're having their lunch eaten because their defense is horsefeathers and their roster is crazy top-heavy.
  15. Bertz
    I know no one can say it but there's probably not going to be a Rule 5 draft this year because of the lockout, right? Because there's a lot of guys who have at least an argument for being added. Here's a rough list from perusing roster resource: Iowa - Jonny Long, Brett Bateman, Jaxon Wiggins, Will Sanders, Grant Kipp, Jace Beck Tenn - LMG, Jefferson Rojas, Carter Trice, Brody McCollough, Marino Santy SB - Kohl Franklin, Jose Escobar, Jostin Florentino, Naz Mule, Mason McGwire That's a lot of names. And they're not all impact guys, we won't rue the day if Marino Santy gets taken, but they're generally guys you wouldn't want to lose for nothing. The SB guys are probably safe, teams have backed off of taking A-ballers. Though probably worth considering when later in the year we're like "Why hasn't Escobar been promoted yet?"
  16. Bertz
    https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7466928/2026/07/24/one-player-traded-mlb-deadline-2026/ From the Athletic one player from each team who will be gone by the deadline - For the Cubs Alcantara is listed, which feels right. Even if he's not in the "big" deal he's probably going somewhere - Reid Detmers listed for the Angels, yet more smoke they're actually willing to sell
  17. Bertz
    Ummmmmm Hollowell might be a thing now that he's added that changeup?
  18. Bertz
    I'm going to be very patient with him given he missed more than a calendar year. But man patience is a lot easier if he's hitting like .230 instead of .130
  19. Bertz
    OMG LMG 12 K's through 6, and on that pitch count a slim chance he might be able to go out for more
  20. Bertz
    So this is probably about going back to Iowa, but given the time of year just gonna throw it out there
  21. Bertz
    I guess too the fact that Triantos is getting one of these type callups tells me he's either about to be traded or they're less disappointed in him internally than we are on the outside.
  22. Bertz
    I mentioned this in the minor league forum, but there was an article last year talking about this. Basically the team would like to get in the habit of calling these guys up for a week or two at a time and just let them hang out and get comfortable. They didn't do it last year because the bench was such a god damn disaster it made it difficult. But they're clearly following through this year. I'll be interested to see if it helps. It'd be nice to find ways to not need ~300 PAs to get rookies over the hump.
  23. Bertz
    No way to say, but I feel like the arrow on his defense is pointing up this year. Not way up, but up. - Subjective but I thought he looked perfectly ordinary in ST, and was really good at challenging - Craig and Tommy started trusting him to play behind the plate shortly before they sent him down, which is not proof of anything but we know they're pretty finicky about catcher defense. Especially the soft factors we can't measure - His defensive metrics from behind the plate are average in a tiny sample - His defensive stats at AAA via BaseballProspectus paint the picture of something like a -5 defensive catcher. Definitionally below average but hardly to a noteworthy degree I don't think there's really anything Ive seen that indicates he can't catch. A lot of people simply can't get over the weight IMO.
  24. Bertz
    I don't think teams have that level of recency bias
  25. Bertz
    Not the primary thrust of this article, but good lord these ZiPS projections for PCA. ZiPS has Ohtani and Witt at around 32 WAR over the next five years, PCA and McGonigle at 30, and then a sizable gap before you hit Wood/Caminero/etc. around 25.
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