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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    I'm very curious what the pitching plan is with this seemingly firming up but also on the other hand the Gausman situation. Padres and Braves are weaker against LHP than RHP, Phillies are better but barely. Go Shota-Boyd-Holmes in the WC round, and target Game 1 of the DS for Gausman?
  2. Bertz
    (but not sarcastically)
  3. Bertz
    Guessing they are going to play game 3 in another park (Tampa?) on Sunday, but for Boston's $$$ sake they have to wait as long as possible to make that call
  4. Bertz
    Taking a step further, the Cubs defense impacts this perception too. IMO it's not hazy memory or cognitive bias that makes it noticeable that the Cubs hitters benefit from a lot of opponents' mistakes, it's passively having the best defense in baseball established as your baseline that makes it really stand out. Like everyone knows that the Cubs defense is good, but I don't think most have really internalized the degree to which it's true. By Statcast it's the best since at least 2015, by DRS it's 4th and and two of the three above them got there through catcher framing.
  5. Bertz
    I suspect Steele is going to start game 162 if the standings are set by then. Only two or three innings of course.
  6. Bertz
    I think you do like I think it was the Mets a few years ago and sort of try in one game and punt the other. It's not the worst thing in the world to have Shota (assuming he's the #4) pitch Monday instead of Sunday. That still lines him up just fine for a Saturday G1 LDS start And then we have a bunch of bulk guys, and inherently only 1-2 of them can go in the WC round. So something like G1: Shota + Assad G2: Steele, Rea, Thielbar, Cabrera...maybe Wicks? I think you still feel good about the staff for the WC round after that. Honestly the biggest issue is like you said if you fail and have to fly out west after a DH, though in that case we'd at least be playing in the late window.
  7. Bertz
    I love "a bit of a psycho (complementary)", what a great way to put it. But yeah like if you have a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 is Anthony Rendon or Kyle Tucker, and 10 is Max Scherzer, all of those guys are at least an 8.
  8. Bertz
    Magic number is 1 for a playoff spot and 6 for HFA in the Wildcard
  9. Bertz
    Yeah I'd be surprised if he's not playing next week. He'll have some hideous contraption on his head but he'll be playing.
  10. Bertz
  11. Bertz
    I'm curious to see if they shuffled the rotation with the off day Guys are veterans so if they prefer 4 days or 6 days of rest that's their prerogative, but presumably the WC round starters are going to go W/T/F, and whoever's opening the DS is going Sunday (and tonight?).
  12. Bertz
    Yeah when Ian Happ fouled a ball off his face he missed 1 game Liked every injury is different, but if he's not concussed and nothing's broken I see no reason he's not back in there for at least a game in Boston?
  13. Bertz
    Wiggins averaged over 97 today! (he threw 1 pitch and got a double play)
  14. Bertz
    Something interesting I found yesterday In 2024 when he was coming back from his leg injury, Steele made one rehab start at Iowa. His velocity that start was way down at 89.4. When he came back to MLB next time around he was immediately back to normal at 92.3. It's a miniscule sample, but if you're hoping he's going to be able to turn it on immediately when he gets back to the big leagues next week there's some non-cope evidence.
  15. Bertz
    Yeah I haven't seen an official statement but seems like they're actively tapering him down now that they're out of it. I'd be surprised if he's much above that 50 pitch mark again today.
  16. Bertz
    Tenn's season looks like it's gonna end tonight
  17. Bertz
    I'm back and forth on the Padres hot streak. Like on the one hand good I'd much rather face them than Philly. On the other hand having two teams right on our ass makes having to go on the road for the wildcard round that much more likely.
  18. Bertz
    The Cubs' defense is phenomenal, probably cutting ~0.50 or so of ERA of the pitching staff's ledger. WAR is correctly giving that credit to Cub hitters not pitchers. People get snippy about "luck" but broadly the Cubs have been very unlucky in terms of giving up homeruns. Probably to the tune of ~0.4 runs a game. Pitching WAR does not at all attribute that to luck, it completely counts against them. The Cubs have broadly been getting lucky interms of sequencing to the tune of about ~0.2 runs per game. What I mean by sequencing is if a pitcher gives up a homer and two singles in an inning, whether that inning results in 1, 2, or 3 runs. Fangraphs pitching WAR treats this entirely as luck, but I think baseball reference might give the pitchers a little credit? So all told the Cubs have been average in terms of run prevention, and how that translates into WAR is frankly an accounting exercise.
  19. Bertz
    This feels mostly on the money. I think the other thing is rest. For instance the Cubs have not had a reliever work back to back days in about a week. I suspect they are hoping to keep that rolling through the end of the season. But how much are they willing to break it to keep the Phillies off their heels? Position player side I assume they take a lighter touch with these two off days in quick succession. Probably just run a hangover lineup the day after clinching and leave it at that? The rotation is interesting, and we probably don't know until Tuesday. With the off days they're free to painlessly shuffle things how they want. Presumably the top 3 playoff starters will go Wed/Thur/Friday next week to line them up for the WC round. The guy lined up for Game 1 of the DS will pitch Tuesday/Sunday? I agree it feels like Shota's primed to be that #3 guy. His issue is the 3rd time through the order, In a win or go home you're pulling a guy at the first sign of trouble anyway, and maybe even proactively pulling a guy after 18 batters. Shota's weakness dovetails well with playoff usage patterns.
  20. Bertz
    Also re: homeruns there's almost certainly a bit of park factor going on. It's not an accident that the hitting is lapping the field (in a good way) at the same exact time and the pitching is lapping the field (in a bad way).
  21. Bertz
    Does it? The Dodgers won a world series 2 years ago with a clearly washed Walker Buehler as their #2 starter. The Blue Jays were 23rd in pitching WAR and a baserunning gaffe away from winning the world series. Rangers didn't have a true ace. Royals. Etc. etc.
  22. Bertz
    At least with this I think there's some legitimate worry about Webb and Palencia (though fingers crossed Palencia seems to be pulling out of it?). Z's been awesome though lately, clearly his issues were related to the transition. We'll hopefully have two of those guys rolling heading into October, plus Peterson will help.
  23. Bertz
    I have very intentionally avoiding the game threads the last two weeks, I assume the current zeitgeist is pretending Gausman and Holmes are bad?
  24. Bertz
    The obvious takeaways from the Brewers' success the last two years are youth and depth IMO
  25. Bertz
    FWIW my way too early offseason looks like: - Sign a really fun SP (I wouldn't touch Skubal, but anyone in the second tier is game on) - Sign a secondary SP (strongly consider just QOing Boyd) - Add a starting caliber OF (I'm hoping Happ just takes his QO) - Re-sign Conforto or find someone comparable - Sign a backup catcher, I like Gary Sanchez since he can fit into the DH mix - Add a long relief type who's better in relief than Rea even if he's not as good stretched out I absolutely do not make a big trade, and aside from that top SP (and mayyybe that second SP) I would be loathe to add long term dollars.
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