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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    Conversations like this are why I really like the FV framework Fangraphs uses and try as much as possible to think about these guys in tiers. IMO the top of our farm probably looks like this 55 Grade - Hartshorn 50 Grade - N/A 45+ Grade - Ayers, Conrad, Wiggins 45 Grade - Townsend, Kepley, Caple, maybe Wing, maybe Sorrell I think Townsend is a tick behind that second tier of the farm, but also mindful of the fact that he's pretty liable to come out next April with like a 30/5 K/BB ratio in his first four starts and grab that #2 prospect mantle by the throat.
  2. Bertz
    When I reference Ayers I'm being pretty specific and not just referencing him hitting well and moving fast broadly. Ayers spent last regular season in Low A even though he was way too old for the level, then made up some ground in the AFL before coming into this season at A+ with a quick hook for AA which is when he finally felt mostly on track. While he's not as old, Conrad's pedigree as a 1st round bat means he really ought to do the same to justify our excitement in him.
  3. Bertz
    Oh interesting. I previously kind of wondered if they were going to slow play Milner's rehab for roster flexibility reasons (they did similar with Brasier in the second half last year), but when he was at the field yesterday I assumed that was out the window. And yeah there was a pocket of positive Harvey updates a few weeks ago that made it sound like he might be back here in August, but it's been radio silence since. He's either going out for a rehab imminently or quietly had a setback.
  4. Bertz
    Hoby Milner pitched a rehab game Saturday, his 6th, and was back at the park yesterday, so he'll presumably be activated today. Palencia pitched Sunday, his 5th, and so we could reasonably see him back tomorrow but it's possible he gets one more outing and joins the team in Seattle.
  5. Bertz
    I think the distinction I'd make is that the farm isn't light on talent, it's light on value. 6 of those top 15 guys are in A ball, and the farm's balance of power has finally (Finally!) shifted from position players to pitchers. It's a bottom 10 farm system, and I wouldn't fight anyone who said bottom 5. But I think it's closer to the late '21 early '22 farm where we had plenty of fun stuff like Caissie but it was million miles away than e.g. the '19 / '20 farm that was basically strip-mined after Hoerner/Amaya/Davis. Those MB/SB lineups legitimately bang and there are pitchers with legitimate stuff up and down the farm. Edit to Add: The above should say 6 of 15 are above A ball, not in A ball
  6. Bertz
    It's very funny to me that in last year's cup of coffee the Cubs essentially solved Civale. Way fewer sinkers, replace those with curves and cutters. Then the A's got the memo on the curve but traded those cutters right back for sinkers and lo and behold the guy started getting crushed again. I'm really hoping Civale survives the coming roster crunch. I trust him a hell of a lot more than Thornton or Rea. I also wouldn't hate seeing if he wants to stick around beyond this year and be the new Rea. He's a five pitch guy even as a reliever it wouldn't shock me if he's effective beyond the 1st time through the order if you stay away from that sinker.
  7. Bertz
    She's not the only one
  8. Bertz
    Yeah like I'm sure their bullpen was not flush with options at this point of the game but IBB'ing PCA to lead off the inning and then having a righty pitch to Suzuki/Busch/Miller felt like the obvious play? Bringing in Smith felt like just ignoring that PCA and Busch aren't heavy split guys.
  9. Bertz
    Despite him being at the park no move for Milner yet. Assuming that's tomorrow or Wednesday?
  10. Bertz
    Totally, but calling up Owen Miller and shipping Triantos down means Pedro is not considered an option at all at SS. That's not crazy or shocking but I feel like we didn't know that so definitively a few hours ago.
  11. Bertz
    So the team doesn't consider Pedro Ramirez viable at shortstop even as a backup. Curious if they consider Shaw there or if Miller's around until Swanson is healthy? The pitcher musical chairs are harder to parse. Probably just have to wait for the moves to happen and figure out the implications after the smoke clears.
  12. Bertz
    It probably depends on how much offense we're getting out of Swanson/Bregman/Hoerner by that point. I'm generally a "WAR is WAR" type but there's only so many places you can punt on offense for defense. The production we're getting from PCA in CF helps. And if we get positive offense from catcher that helps too.
  13. Bertz
    I think the problem with Kepley is still we don't know how much of a haircut his production is going to take when he's forced to swing the bat. Kepley this year is swinging 34.4% of the time. That would be the 3rd lowest rate since 2021 (min 300 PAs) if he were a major leaguer. He has below average power, and his contact numbers (86-87%) are good not elite. If the contact ratchets up a gear (and in a tiny initial sample at AA, it has) you can see something in the Kwan/Hoerner/early career Brett Gardner neighborhood. On the flipside Jakob Marsee has a pretty similar toolkit and had pretty similar minor league numbers through the same level, and sailing has not been nearly as smooth since he got to the upper minors. He's probably going to stick as a major leaguer but looks very much like a reserve at this point.
  14. Bertz
    I was kind of wondering about this when he wasn't in yesterday's lineup. Good for him. I hope he can go on an Ayers-esque trajectory from here. Do the AFL, go back to SB next year with a quick hook to Tenn. If he can end next year at Iowa, even if it's only a brief cup of coffee, it'll feel like he made up for most of the lost time.
  15. Bertz
    Cabadong (sorta)
  16. Bertz
    Cepeda is red hot, you love to see it
  17. Bertz
    There are a number of ways the team can go but I feel confident saying Peterson will absolutely not be let go first
  18. Bertz
    I wonder if Colin Rea is on the team in a week or two. You have this steady stream of arms coming back over the next month. When everyone is healthy Rea is probably 8th on the SP depth chart, and closer to 18th on the RP one. With less than a quarter of a season left and rosters expanding in a few weeks there's much less of a fanatical need to hold onto depth than there is in like May.
  19. Bertz
  20. Bertz
    How the hell does a guy doing this just a month after draft day last to the 10th round and get only a $50k bonus?
  21. Bertz
    When you see Iowa put up a 9 spot early but it's all just Ben Cowles
  22. Bertz
    I feel like I'm the Rockwell meme about our reliever who always seems to pitch well being a guy I'd like to see pitch more and not be on the roster bubble.
  23. Bertz
    Cavalli's really good. With Gausman on the bump you still feel good but this is easily the scariest matchup of this roadtrip.
  24. Bertz
    Bregman and Swanson each have 3.2 WAR after tonight. With about a quarter of the season left each guy is likely to end up right around 4 WAR. Really good stuff for not just the short term but the long term. Early June when both guys were slumping those contracts were starting to look a little scary.
  25. Bertz
    Even if the Cubs don't completely catch up, getting the lead down to three means the Brewers have to play with some urgency. Can't fart around and skip a Miz start, can't be cute with your relievers, etc. There's an extent to which you can punt on the Battle because you're focused on the War when you have a big lead that isn't on the table in a tighter race.
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