Brian Kelder

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images The Cubs are in the middle of a good season. While the Brewers are seemingly entrenched in first place, Chicago has a chance to secure home-field advantage in their inevitable best-of-3, as the Wild Card leader. But the schedule is about to flip. The Cubs are about to play games in 17 straight days, then one off day, then play another nine in a row. Teams they'll face in this stretch are designed to feast on weaker pitching: the Dodgers, Nationals, Yankees, and White Sox stand out as tough opponents. It’s not an exaggeration to say that this segment will dictate their October plans. This article isn’t going to talk about targets. Northside has that covered here and here (shout out to Sam Caulder, he’s been outstanding), and if you prefer to listen, it’s talked about right here. This is about the timing. Playing 26 in 27 days will stretch and tax any rotation, but the Cubs aren’t just any rotation. They are already using retreads like Aaron Civale and claiming DFA'd relievers left and right, hoping to find this year’s Drew Pomeranz. They clearly feel the urgency and the need. So, make a trade. Today. Put away the IVY model machine, forget the future value nitpicking, and try to keep this ship afloat. With 26 IL stints on the club this year from pitchers alone, this long stretch of games requires reinforcements on the hill. The Cubs have Matt Shaw, who has a lot of future value. Is it in Chicago? Probably, he’ll have more value somewhere else that doesn’t have their entire infield under contract, blocking him, for years. He’s a perfect example of a player the model values highly, but who won’t achieve that value unless moved to greener pastures. So whatever it is—controllable starter, high-leverage rental reliever—just do the trade now. Stop trying to extract maximum theoretical value in every move. Jed Hoyer has built an elite defensive team with a solid offense. He needs to cash in some chips to address the pitching staff. The next month will sorely test the Cubs;. Will they get reinforcements? They can’t risk another 30-game, 7-23 stretch. That could derail an interesting season. They need to gear up for the grind right this minute. View full article

Image courtesy of © Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images At the All-Star break, the Cubs are in a good spot in the race for the playoffs. Five games back in the division and in the first Wild Card spot, they have multiple paths and good odds to reach October. For this to sustain, though—and to overcome a disaster of a pitching situation—four hitters stand out as keys to the lineup. Here are four numbers that matter for those players, as we get back into action. 60 This is the number of games that Seiya Suzuki needs to play for the Cubs in the stretch run. This, of course, means avoiding any further injury; that’s the point. Suzuki tends to take a few weeks of ramp-up after injury—time the Cubs can ill afford this season. The lineup would struggle to sustain productivity and balance without Suzuki, especially with Matt Shaw on the shelf. Losing their best non-Pete Crow-Armstrong slugger even for 10 days, with his customary fortnight of struggle afterward, would give a month of lower production from a key bat. Suzuki needs to remain healthy for the Cubs. 25 This is the number of home runs Michael Busch needs to finish with, This year, the Cubs have only been successful during supernova performances by their bats. Nico Hoerner carried them early; Pete Crow-Armstrong and Dansby Swanson have done so lately. They'll need more of this going forward from someone. Busch hasn’t had his traditional five-homer week. In fact, he's only hit 11 all season. A home run per week needs to be his expectation, not the exception—and at some point, he needs to get hot. This isn’t to say Busch has been bad. His walks have been extremely valuable. But for the Cubs, a team that feeds on outlier performances, Busch needs to get that power back. .300 This is fairly obvious, but Nico Hoerner needs his luck to change. Yes, it is (at least partially) luck that has his batting average down in the .230s. He’s sporting the same contact metrics as always, but the BABIP has slid to .243. His previous four seasons? .300, .312, .297, .313. It’s just his batting average that has visibly slipped, especially when contrasted with how hot he was to start the season, Regression to the mean will help Hoerner contribute, and is surely what Cubs brass is banking on. There are genuine issues contributing to the struggles, too, though. We've discussed some of them recently. Even going by expected numbers, Hoerner has been struggling for a while now, going longer without a surge than he has in at least two years. He needs to turn it around coming out of the break. 22 Ian Happ has to reduce the strikeouts. Currently whiffing at a 31.5% rate is killing his batting average (.220). This is his highest whiff rate since 2018. In Happ's best seasons, his strikeout rate has averaged 22%. Aesthetically, it’s a bad look to whiff repeatedly instead of making contact, and for fans, it’s sticking in their memories. He isn’t a bad player, but if he can’t strike out less (well, even if he can, but you get my point), his time in Chicago could be running short. The Cubs are good, and these realistic outcomes would help put them firmly in the playoffs and contending for the division. What do you guys think? Who needs to step up for Chicago? View full article

Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images The Chicago Cubs pitching staff, to put it gently, is in shambles as June comes to a close. The fact that the team is ten games over .500 with five starters, their closer, the anticipated set-up man, and hordes of others on the injured list is quite remarkable. Even more so, the pitching staff, patchwork as it is, somehow keeps holding its own, or at least isn’t preventing the team from winning recently. I still watch games with a certain whiff of dread, though. They simply are almost out of arms! The North Siders' race to October may simply devolve into a war of attrition against themselves. Nevertheless, these three pitchers were not only successful in June, but in their own ways emblematic of the team as a whole. Ranking Cubs' Best Pitchers in June 3rd Place: Shota Imanaga 1-0, 4.13 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 28 IP, 5 BB, 23 K, 7 HR allowed The Good When you look at Imanaga’s June, he was battling on the mound. While he wasn’t involved in many decisions, the Cubs did go 4-1 in his five starts. Imanaga has also averaged just one walk per start, keeping runners off the bases. He also continues to be just a fun, expressive player; he’s easy to root for. As the last man standing from the projected rotation, Imanaga is quite important the rest of the way. The Impending Doom Seven home runs this months is emblematic of the staff as a whole. The Cubs lead the entire MLB in home runs allowed, and the new batch of 2019-style 'bouncy balls' won’t help. Wrigley winds seem to have gone back to their classic mode as well. Imanaga, a noted fly ball pitcher, will have to keep the ball on the infield dirt more to utilize the roster's brilliant defense. He, along with the rest of the staff, should realize that a good defense can’t catch balls that fly onto Waveland. 2nd Place: Ben Brown 2-0, 1.65 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 16 IP, 12 K The Good Brown continued his breakout season last month... until a recurrence of his neck issue from two years ago derailed it. Many internet articles of the theme of “Where would the Cubs be without Ben Brown” were published. Well, I guess we’ll find out! He was putting up great numbers, though it would have been nice to see him maintain that performance across an entire season. At the very least, Brown will have a great Strat-0-Matic card if he takes a while to return tot he mound. The Impending Doom Brown, like the Cubs as a whole, was on a razor’s edge this season. Hard contact was always his bugaboo and his stats masked some troubling trends. Opponents slugged .339 against him in June, up from a stellar .176 in May. The eye test confirmed it as well; teams were starting to solve Ben Brown’s puzzle. The injury happened at the perfect time to preserve his stats and optimism about him as a starter. Razzball fantasy projections have Brown with a 3.72 ERA going forward if healthy. And that’s the rub with the Cubs' rotation: Most of these guys aren't great pitchers. They’re all capable of a solid stretch, but the most important guys are already injured. They can replace an average pitcher with another (at least close to) average guy in most cases. Brown was evolving beyond that threshold in 2026, but for now, the team will attempt to replace his production with David Peterson. Winner: Ryan Rolison 2-0, 1 save, 0.68 ERA, 15 K in 13 IP, 0.68 WHIP The Good Jed Hoyer found another reliever on the scrap heap, turning trash into treasure. Rolison has been an opener, closer, high-leverage guy, and overall godsend to the otherwise beleaguered bullpen. While not fully inspired with confidence so far, this seems to be the Brad Keller find of the offseason, and kudos to Hoyer for identifying the traits he had that led to his success so far. The Impending Doom Rolison could implode, joining the other failed signings of Hunter Harvey, Phil Maton, Hector Neris, and basically anyone Hoyer has signed to high-dollar relief deals. The bullpen's larger issues are being masked by the unlikely success that Rolison is having. Any regression or injury from the sterling southpaw, and the 'pen will implode even more than it is doing already. So there it is! There’s some good, but there’s impending doom in every area. This team will need to carry its pitching staff if they’re going to make a playoff run, though perhaps some better health in the second half (we should be so lucky) could flip the script. View full article

Veteran Hoby Milner has hit the IL with appendicitis. His place is being filled by Gavin Hollowell. An unbelievable stretch of Cubs pitching injuries continues. Ben Brown (neck) and Edward Cabrera (splits, hamstring) went down this week, as did closer Daniel Palencia (elbow) and walking-earned run Phil Maton (ego, knee). The Cubs will continue to play games, with or without healthy pitchers. The staff is reeling, and at this point, all you can do is chuckle. View full rumor

Every team does the models, but the Cubs have cut in-person scouting far too much IMO. They're missing crucial information somewhere and I'd start with that.

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images One constant in the Jed Hoyer era, as middling as it has been, is the constant churn of bullpen arms. The Cubs have not been able to consistently develop arms internally, despite the much-ballyhooed Pitch Lab; Tyler Zombro being hired from Tread Athletics; and copious amounts of money poured into the IVY model. The bullpen has not been stable for years. So what's going on? Why do fans, year after year, have to watch a bullpen flounder for a couple of months? THE 2023 MIRAGE For an analytically savvy front office, they have a shocking history of bringing back relievers after a good season that was obviously an outlier, even in real time. Since 2023, there's been a parade of mediocre relievers brought back after career seasons: Mark Leiter, Jr.: Age 32, 77 K in 64 IP, 3.52 ERA. Next season: 4.21 ERA, traded to Yankees Julian Merryweather: Age 31, 3.38 ERA, 98 K in 72 IP. Due to injuries, has not pitched 72 innings in his other four seasons combined. Adbert Alzolay: 22 Saves, 67 K in 64 IP. Next season: 4.67 ERA, eventual Tommy John surgery Jose Cuas: 3.04 ERA, 19 K in 24 IP. Next season: released with 7.43 ERA in 13 IP These guys were the backbone of the 2023 surprise bullpen, and all were brought back for the next season. At the time, fans weren't exactly clamoring for them to be replaced. But they all had red flags. Alzolay and Merryweather had just completed the only healthy season in their careers. Cuas had always had massive control issues, and Leiter is simply not a high-leverage reliever. All were brought back in 2024, and their season was lost before the bullpen could be fixed. THE UNLEARNED LESSON Now, in 2024, they did save the pen with Tyson Miller and Jorge López, both of whom moved on and have not pitched consistently in the major leagues since then. But then: Porter Hodge: 1.88 ERA, 9 saves, 52 K in 43 IP. Since then: 33 IP, 6.27 ERA Héctor Neris: No. We don't want to relive that. But he was the big signing. Nate Pearson: deadline move, 2.73 ERA. Released in 2025 with a 9.20 ERA. So, this was supposed to be Hoyer's strong suit. Neris didn't work out and was cut loose. Hodge and a bunch of people off the scrap heap somehow cobbled together a solid bullpen. While the team in 2024 only won 83 games, it emboldened Hoyer to scrimp and save on the bullpen for another year. Now, an observer would notice that it did work, and also point to other pitchers' struggles as proof of concept for Hoyer. Tanner Scott, for example, pitched to just a 4.74 ERA after signing his four-year, $72-million deal in 2025. Bryan Abreu, long a co-ace in the Astros' pen, is struggling this year to a 7.17 ERA. Due to the nature of their work, even the most stalwart bullpen arms can have down seasons. Injuries are a huge factor, too. Edwin Díaz is on the shelf for months because of an elbow issue. Josh Hader just returned after spending the first two months on the IL. To counter this, at least Scott and Abreu had long bodies of work to support keeping them around. Guys like Leiter (4.62 career ERA) or Merryweather (yearly injuries to the pitching arm) were relied on for the Cubs at the same level that Scott is. And to be fair to Scott, he's rebounded this year with a 2.36 ERA and is serving as the Dodgers' first option at closer (even if that's only because of Díaz's absence). Reliable arms aren't cheap or sure things, but they are more reliable than pitchers like Hunter Harvey or Neris. The elite sheer stuff of those pitchers sets a high floor for them, too. When you gamble on Leiter's 90-MPH heater and floater of a curve (even if it comes with a great splitter), you're drawing to a straight. When you do it with a guy who throws 98 and has a plus slider, you're betting with a strong pair in the hole. THE 2025/26 LOOP CYCLE Now for some 2025 relievers: Caleb Thielbar: 38 years old, 2.64 ERA. This year: 4.20 ERA and 4 homers allowed in 15 IP Ryan Pressly (bad), Ryan Brasier (meh) and Drew Pomeranz (not bad) brought in at 36-37 years old. To the front office's credit, all now elsewhere. Even Colin Rea has pitched to a 4.59 ERA this season, after 3.95 last year. And do we have to mention Phil Maton, a 33-year-old on his sixth team in three seasons, or Hunter Harvey, who (of course) is injured? Hoby Milner at age 35, with an ERA over 4.00? Hoyer gets credit for the Jacob Webb signing, which is turning out nicely, and he did spend a bit of real money to bring in Maton and Harvey, whose track records are stronger than past targets. It's a bit like being told to clean your room and stuffing everything into drawers and closets, though, and we've seen that sitcom moment where the closet is opened and red rubber balls bounce out like they'd been stuffer in there with a pant and a heave. The common thread is expecting, or hoping, that relievers can repeat career years in their 30s. Bullpens are notoriously volatile; relievers in their mid-to-late 30s are even more so. Hoyer continues to treat temporary success as stable, repeatable production. Until this changes, Cub fans can expect to ride even more early-season roller coasters of relief production in the future. Until the team can shore up its pitching development infrastructure and build good, hard-throwing relievers from within, though, Hoyer has no choice but to do some version of this. He's claimed or purchased Doug Nikhazy, Tyler Ferguson, Luis Peralta, Eduarniel Nuñez and Christian Roa, just within the last six weeks. So, the questions are: Can any of those guys help this team survive this year? Will the Cubs ill-advisedly bring back any of them, if so? And (worst and scariest but certainly most important): Can a Hoyer-led front office ever fix the team's developmental woes? View full article

The Cubs in the past few days have added a couple of relief options to their system. First from Dodgers reporter Fabian Ardaya. Ignore the Glasnow part unless you own him in fantasy, and the second sentence has it. Antoine Kelly has not pitched in the major leagues after beginning his career in 2019. This season, he's toiled in Triple-A Albuquerque, struggling to a 5.14 ERA in 21 innings pitched. In 2025 he was in the Rockies' system and performed similarly with a slightly worse 5.63 ERA. Kelly was acquired for cash considerations and will report to Triple-A Iowa, where he'll look to get his chance given all of the injuries the Cubs' staff has had. And second, from the Des Moines Register's Andrew Birch: Wantz, age 30, started in the Los Angeles Angels' system, toggling between the majors and minors since his debut in 2021. The Rays picked him up in 2024 after an elbow injury, and he was let go after allowing five runs in 1 2/3 innings on Saturday. Wantz does have some success in the highest level, striking out 127 in 120 innings pitched over his career. His strikeout rate has dipped though, and he will look to increase his metrics and his success in Iowa to start. If he can, there are ample opportunities to contribute to the big club if Wantz can handle it. View full rumor

Matt Shaw is ready to return to Chicago, according to ESPN reporter Jesse Rogers: Shaw, nursing a sore back, will replace Kevin Alcantara on the big league roster. Currently, Shaw is hitting .242 with a .297 OBP in part-time work for the Cubs. In four rehab games, he hit .286 with a .375 OBP and zero home runs. Shaw will look to give struggling regulars like Alex Bregman, Nico Hoerner, and Dansby Swanson some rest as well as logging time in the outfield, where he played some in his brief rehab stint. Alcantara played sparingly in his 17 games in Chicago, and his baserunning gaffe late in Sunday's game likely was the last straw for manager Craig Counsell. He'll take a .111 batting average with him and look to further develop in Iowa, where he'll have consistent playing time. View full rumor