Brian Kelder

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images The Chicago Cubs had a strong month of July, much of which was thanks to a terrific effort on a nightly basis from the lineup. Nearly everyone contributed something to the cause, positioning the team to be aggressive buyers at the trade deadline. Certain players flashed brighter than others, though, and they will be hereby bestowed the honor of our Cubs Hitter of the Month for July. Ranking Cubs' Best Hitters in July 3rd: Pedro Ramirez .386/.440/.545, 168 wRC+, 6 XBH, 8 RBIs, 2 SB Ramirez has made himself quite the valuable bench player so far. He’s been able to play defensively at second and third, giving the regulars DH days as he mans their positions. At the plate, he’s been outstanding over the past month as well. Trade season has come and gone, yet Ramirez remains. We should expect some regression; a .447 BABIP is unsustainable, and his lack of over-the-fence power holds him back. However, he does deserve a highlight for his value and ability to thrive in a part-time role. This type of player off the bench has been sorely missed in recent years. 2nd Place: Seiya Suzuki .275/.389/.549, 13 XBH, 21 RBIs, 1 SB When he remains healthy, Suzuki can have extended stretches of over .900 OPS baseball. This past month was one of those stretches. Craig Counsell follows the new-ish conventional reasoning that your top hitters are in the 1-2 spots in the order, and Suzuki has been trusted to fill the second spot. He may be pricing himself out of Chicago this offseason, or at least securing a hefty payday. Along with his offense, check out the advanced defensive metrics: +6 Fielding Run Value +4 Outs Above Average +11 Defensive Runs Saved +3 Arm Value He took last years’ DH role personally and has been a solid all-around player. As always, consistency will be important for the team as we move through the last third of the season. 1st Place: Pete Crow-Armstrong .278/.400/.611, 16 XBH, 17 RBIs, 6 SB Not much more to say about the MVP favorite, but what’s with all these walks? 16 in a month? Pitchers have tried to get him to expand his zone, and Crow-Armstrong refuses to give in. This is often a final step in an elite player's evolution. He's already the best defender in the league, and one of its best baserunners. If the offensive gains he's made are legit, then forget about it. This guy is going to be a perennial MVP candidate for years to come. The game has slowed down for Crow-Armstrong this summer, and don’t look for it to speed back up. This is his Mike Trout season, and the Cubs got a steal on his extension. Enjoy this guy for the next five seasons; he’s a unique and special player. View full article

Image courtesy of USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect Jed Hoyer’s reputation as a prospect-hoarding cheapskate is a bit overblown. He’ll take big swings when the chance arises and the numbers support his decision. What he is guilty of, perhaps, is letting value and circumstance rule him, rather than finding conviction in a particular evaluation. That might be a major factor in what the Cubs decide to do over the final 23 hours before the trade deadline. Tarik Skubal is a Dodger. FanGraphs now gives them a 30.4% chance of winning the World Series. In projections, that’s as close to a sure thing as you can reasonably build. Obviously, it's still a mile from being an actual sure thing. Even the chances of the Dodgers winning the pennant (44.3%) aren't prohibitive, and that's the number the Cubs have to worry about, anyway. Still, if this wasn't an all-in juggernaut before, it is now. Hoyer has built a team with one player performing as a superstar and a pitching staff beset by injuries. The defense is, of course, its own star, ruining the experience of watching lesser teams fumble the ball around on routine plays. The Cubs are good. But the numbers will never catch up to what the Dodgers have assembled. So what will the Cubs do? Find a cheap retread and hope he clicks, like they've done with David Peterson? Go for some relievers? Do nothing, counting on injury returns like Hoby Milner and Edward Cabrera to function as deadline acquisitions? No matter what Hoyer does, though, the Cubs will be heavy underdogs against the Dodgers. Going by odds of winning the pennant, Chicago (8.4%) also looks overmatched against Milwaukee (16.7%) and the team from outside Atlanta (13.5%). If he is to make fans happy and make a big splash, Hoyer will have to go against his history and his instincts. Hoyer talked about obtaining a first-round bye, the possibility of which would justify a heavy investment at the deadline. They aren’t likely to do that; they'd have to catch Milwaukee to do so. By the numbers, the opportunity he talked about wanting to see just isn't there. So where are we? Are the Cubs, as long rumored, happy to just make the playoffs and let it shake out? Or are they going to try to win the darn thing, 10 short years after the last one? Will they let the numbers intimidate them, or will they acknowledge that their odds will only be a dice-roll and roll those dice anyway? One answer, of course, could be to reject the premise of the numbers and say that there's more to chase in a baseball season than a title, anyway—that the real failure is a failure to become one's best self, without regard for who or what anyone else is. That would be a very un-Hoyer-like way to do business, though. Hoyer’s actions tonight and tomorrow will tell us a lot about his mindset. We wait with bated breath to see if his slavish devotion to projections extends further than anticipated. View full article

Wait. No. You’re wrong they just have two. Four over 100

I’ll own that one. Might need to write an update

I am decidedly not a prospect guy to be fair

Might undercut the metric more!

Fair

I think my main point of them not having enough top end talent still is a good one

Fair! I just don’t see the lineup as an elite one, and of course they could go 7-23 again and have the entire offense disappear. As always we’ll see what happens. If I get egg on my face I’ll wear it

Fair, but note that I wrote this on Friday, so the stats obviously changed

To be fair I never said I wanted a Bregman signing!

To me, the issue is that they don’t have a better talent to hit in the middle of the order.

Thanks for calling me a man writer! I don’t see a Cubs website as having to be positive 100% of the time. I hope it comes across as honest stuff