Brian Kelder

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images The Chicago Cubs had a strong month of July, much of which was thanks to a terrific effort on a nightly basis from the lineup. Nearly everyone contributed something to the cause, positioning the team to be aggressive buyers at the trade deadline. Certain players flashed brighter than others, though, and they will be hereby bestowed the honor of our Cubs Hitter of the Month for July. Ranking Cubs' Best Hitters in July 3rd: Pedro Ramirez .386/.440/.545, 168 wRC+, 6 XBH, 8 RBIs, 2 SB Ramirez has made himself quite the valuable bench player so far. He’s been able to play defensively at second and third, giving the regulars DH days as he mans their positions. At the plate, he’s been outstanding over the past month as well. Trade season has come and gone, yet Ramirez remains. We should expect some regression; a .447 BABIP is unsustainable, and his lack of over-the-fence power holds him back. However, he does deserve a highlight for his value and ability to thrive in a part-time role. This type of player off the bench has been sorely missed in recent years. 2nd Place: Seiya Suzuki .275/.389/.549, 13 XBH, 21 RBIs, 1 SB When he remains healthy, Suzuki can have extended stretches of over .900 OPS baseball. This past month was one of those stretches. Craig Counsell follows the new-ish conventional reasoning that your top hitters are in the 1-2 spots in the order, and Suzuki has been trusted to fill the second spot. He may be pricing himself out of Chicago this offseason, or at least securing a hefty payday. Along with his offense, check out the advanced defensive metrics: +6 Fielding Run Value +4 Outs Above Average +11 Defensive Runs Saved +3 Arm Value He took last years’ DH role personally and has been a solid all-around player. As always, consistency will be important for the team as we move through the last third of the season. 1st Place: Pete Crow-Armstrong .278/.400/.611, 16 XBH, 17 RBIs, 6 SB Not much more to say about the MVP favorite, but what’s with all these walks? 16 in a month? Pitchers have tried to get him to expand his zone, and Crow-Armstrong refuses to give in. This is often a final step in an elite player's evolution. He's already the best defender in the league, and one of its best baserunners. If the offensive gains he's made are legit, then forget about it. This guy is going to be a perennial MVP candidate for years to come. The game has slowed down for Crow-Armstrong this summer, and don’t look for it to speed back up. This is his Mike Trout season, and the Cubs got a steal on his extension. Enjoy this guy for the next five seasons; he’s a unique and special player. View full article

Image courtesy of USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect Jed Hoyer’s reputation as a prospect-hoarding cheapskate is a bit overblown. He’ll take big swings when the chance arises and the numbers support his decision. What he is guilty of, perhaps, is letting value and circumstance rule him, rather than finding conviction in a particular evaluation. That might be a major factor in what the Cubs decide to do over the final 23 hours before the trade deadline. Tarik Skubal is a Dodger. FanGraphs now gives them a 30.4% chance of winning the World Series. In projections, that’s as close to a sure thing as you can reasonably build. Obviously, it's still a mile from being an actual sure thing. Even the chances of the Dodgers winning the pennant (44.3%) aren't prohibitive, and that's the number the Cubs have to worry about, anyway. Still, if this wasn't an all-in juggernaut before, it is now. Hoyer has built a team with one player performing as a superstar and a pitching staff beset by injuries. The defense is, of course, its own star, ruining the experience of watching lesser teams fumble the ball around on routine plays. The Cubs are good. But the numbers will never catch up to what the Dodgers have assembled. So what will the Cubs do? Find a cheap retread and hope he clicks, like they've done with David Peterson? Go for some relievers? Do nothing, counting on injury returns like Hoby Milner and Edward Cabrera to function as deadline acquisitions? No matter what Hoyer does, though, the Cubs will be heavy underdogs against the Dodgers. Going by odds of winning the pennant, Chicago (8.4%) also looks overmatched against Milwaukee (16.7%) and the team from outside Atlanta (13.5%). If he is to make fans happy and make a big splash, Hoyer will have to go against his history and his instincts. Hoyer talked about obtaining a first-round bye, the possibility of which would justify a heavy investment at the deadline. They aren’t likely to do that; they'd have to catch Milwaukee to do so. By the numbers, the opportunity he talked about wanting to see just isn't there. So where are we? Are the Cubs, as long rumored, happy to just make the playoffs and let it shake out? Or are they going to try to win the darn thing, 10 short years after the last one? Will they let the numbers intimidate them, or will they acknowledge that their odds will only be a dice-roll and roll those dice anyway? One answer, of course, could be to reject the premise of the numbers and say that there's more to chase in a baseball season than a title, anyway—that the real failure is a failure to become one's best self, without regard for who or what anyone else is. That would be a very un-Hoyer-like way to do business, though. Hoyer’s actions tonight and tomorrow will tell us a lot about his mindset. We wait with bated breath to see if his slavish devotion to projections extends further than anticipated. View full article

Wait. No. You’re wrong they just have two. Four over 100

I’ll own that one. Might need to write an update

I am decidedly not a prospect guy to be fair

Might undercut the metric more!

Fair

I think my main point of them not having enough top end talent still is a good one

Fair! I just don’t see the lineup as an elite one, and of course they could go 7-23 again and have the entire offense disappear. As always we’ll see what happens. If I get egg on my face I’ll wear it

Fair, but note that I wrote this on Friday, so the stats obviously changed

To be fair I never said I wanted a Bregman signing!

To me, the issue is that they don’t have a better talent to hit in the middle of the order.

Thanks for calling me a man writer! I don’t see a Cubs website as having to be positive 100% of the time. I hope it comes across as honest stuff

Those are team stats. Individually though, you need that higher level of talent.

Thanks for reading! I should have written that the farm isn’t good enough to get an upgrade, like a real guy for the rotation, I do think they need a middle of the order bat, not for the season but for October.

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images There is a narrative about the Cubs position players that doesn’t seem to jibe with reality. Common Cubs fan knowledge states that this is an elite position-player group. And yes, when you look at WAR, the Cubs look great. The defense truly is elite. But they simply don’t have the offensive talent—or at least the demonstrated capacity for present production—to justify a heavy investment in this season. Historically, teams need at least one elite bat to contend. Pete Crow-Armstrong has been that, and is a legitimate MVP candidate. But the rest of the lineup features only one player with a 120 wRC+. That’s simply not enough offense—not enough high-end hitting talent—to reach their postseason goal. Other contenders this year have more players who have reached this stat, which basically means the player is 20 percent better than a league-average hitter. The Dodgers have six; the Brewers have eight; and the Rays four. Even more, the Dodgers feature a certain two-way legend with a lofty 162, and Junior Caminero in Tampa is over 150. There are reasons why these teams come through more often and win at a higher rate. They simply have more offensive talent. Last year was more of the same. Toronto and Seattle each had seven players exceed this mark. The Brewers and Phillies checked in with four. The trend is established; the Cubs' hitting doesn’t measure up to recent contenders. Other champions with 85-95 wins (the range in which the Cubs are likely to fall) also had several more bats over a 120 wRC+. The 2021 Braves and 2019 Nationals, both Wild Card entrants, each had five players exceed the mark. Last year’s Dodgers had five, and of course, Ohtani put up a 172. The 2015 Royals are often held up as an example of a champion without a superstar, but they had seven players clear the 120 mark. High-end hitting is essential for October success, and the Cubs are not performing at that level. All of this has to be considered in the context of the broader roster, of course. Entering Sunday, the Cubs led the majors in non-pitcher Wins Above Average (WAA), according to Baseball Reference, at 10.3. Crow-Armstrong has accounted for 5.0 of that himself, though, and as we know, much of the other value comes from the great defense of Michael Busch, Nico Hoerner, Alex Bregman, Dansby Swanson, and Ian Happ. More importantly, their pitchers have dug a hole the position players have had to climb out of. They've been worth -5.6 WAA. In short, take away Crow-Armstrong, and the roster as a whole is underwater, at -0.3 WAA. With the three best pitchers the team has had active at any point this season (Cade Horton, Daniel Palencia and Ben Brown) all on the injured list indefinitely or out for the year, it's unlikely that they'll turn that around with their current personnel. There is no realistic way the Cubs can fill their holes at starting pitcher, the bullpen, and add a true middle-of-the-order bat. Balancing the roster by deepening the lineup would be massively costly. Given this reality, it doesn't make sense to gut the farm for a one-time effort. Bregman will continue to hit in the middle of the order, because projections say he’s the most likely to produce numbers at that spot. Despite many online clamoring for a lineup change, there really isn’t a move to be made that would push them ahead of Milwaukee or the Dodgers. The best course of action is hoping the highest-paid players on the team (Bregman and Swanson) return to their normal levels of production—not to mention Hoerner and Happ. Jed Hoyer was lauded for his efforts to build a complete roster in the offseason, eschewing waiting for a deadline addition. That team hasn't materialized, and the underperformers in the offense are a reason why. Unless the highly-paid bats come to the grill and start frying some tasty stats, the Cubs should just let it ride. View full article

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images The Cubs are in the middle of a good season. While the Brewers are seemingly entrenched in first place, Chicago has a chance to secure home-field advantage in their inevitable best-of-3, as the Wild Card leader. But the schedule is about to flip. The Cubs are about to play games in 17 straight days, then one off day, then play another nine in a row. Teams they'll face in this stretch are designed to feast on weaker pitching: the Dodgers, Nationals, Yankees, and White Sox stand out as tough opponents. It’s not an exaggeration to say that this segment will dictate their October plans. This article isn’t going to talk about targets. Northside has that covered here and here (shout out to Sam Caulder, he’s been outstanding), and if you prefer to listen, it’s talked about right here. This is about the timing. Playing 26 in 27 days will stretch and tax any rotation, but the Cubs aren’t just any rotation. They are already using retreads like Aaron Civale and claiming DFA'd relievers left and right, hoping to find this year’s Drew Pomeranz. They clearly feel the urgency and the need. So, make a trade. Today. Put away the IVY model machine, forget the future value nitpicking, and try to keep this ship afloat. With 26 IL stints on the club this year from pitchers alone, this long stretch of games requires reinforcements on the hill. The Cubs have Matt Shaw, who has a lot of future value. Is it in Chicago? Probably, he’ll have more value somewhere else that doesn’t have their entire infield under contract, blocking him, for years. He’s a perfect example of a player the model values highly, but who won’t achieve that value unless moved to greener pastures. So whatever it is—controllable starter, high-leverage rental reliever—just do the trade now. Stop trying to extract maximum theoretical value in every move. Jed Hoyer has built an elite defensive team with a solid offense. He needs to cash in some chips to address the pitching staff. The next month will sorely test the Cubs;. Will they get reinforcements? They can’t risk another 30-game, 7-23 stretch. That could derail an interesting season. They need to gear up for the grind right this minute. View full article

Image courtesy of © Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images At the All-Star break, the Cubs are in a good spot in the race for the playoffs. Five games back in the division and in the first Wild Card spot, they have multiple paths and good odds to reach October. For this to sustain, though—and to overcome a disaster of a pitching situation—four hitters stand out as keys to the lineup. Here are four numbers that matter for those players, as we get back into action. 60 This is the number of games that Seiya Suzuki needs to play for the Cubs in the stretch run. This, of course, means avoiding any further injury; that’s the point. Suzuki tends to take a few weeks of ramp-up after injury—time the Cubs can ill afford this season. The lineup would struggle to sustain productivity and balance without Suzuki, especially with Matt Shaw on the shelf. Losing their best non-Pete Crow-Armstrong slugger even for 10 days, with his customary fortnight of struggle afterward, would give a month of lower production from a key bat. Suzuki needs to remain healthy for the Cubs. 25 This is the number of home runs Michael Busch needs to finish with, This year, the Cubs have only been successful during supernova performances by their bats. Nico Hoerner carried them early; Pete Crow-Armstrong and Dansby Swanson have done so lately. They'll need more of this going forward from someone. Busch hasn’t had his traditional five-homer week. In fact, he's only hit 11 all season. A home run per week needs to be his expectation, not the exception—and at some point, he needs to get hot. This isn’t to say Busch has been bad. His walks have been extremely valuable. But for the Cubs, a team that feeds on outlier performances, Busch needs to get that power back. .300 This is fairly obvious, but Nico Hoerner needs his luck to change. Yes, it is (at least partially) luck that has his batting average down in the .230s. He’s sporting the same contact metrics as always, but the BABIP has slid to .243. His previous four seasons? .300, .312, .297, .313. It’s just his batting average that has visibly slipped, especially when contrasted with how hot he was to start the season, Regression to the mean will help Hoerner contribute, and is surely what Cubs brass is banking on. There are genuine issues contributing to the struggles, too, though. We've discussed some of them recently. Even going by expected numbers, Hoerner has been struggling for a while now, going longer without a surge than he has in at least two years. He needs to turn it around coming out of the break. 22 Ian Happ has to reduce the strikeouts. Currently whiffing at a 31.5% rate is killing his batting average (.220). This is his highest whiff rate since 2018. In Happ's best seasons, his strikeout rate has averaged 22%. Aesthetically, it’s a bad look to whiff repeatedly instead of making contact, and for fans, it’s sticking in their memories. He isn’t a bad player, but if he can’t strike out less (well, even if he can, but you get my point), his time in Chicago could be running short. The Cubs are good, and these realistic outcomes would help put them firmly in the playoffs and contending for the division. What do you guys think? Who needs to step up for Chicago? View full article

Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images The Chicago Cubs pitching staff, to put it gently, is in shambles as June comes to a close. The fact that the team is ten games over .500 with five starters, their closer, the anticipated set-up man, and hordes of others on the injured list is quite remarkable. Even more so, the pitching staff, patchwork as it is, somehow keeps holding its own, or at least isn’t preventing the team from winning recently. I still watch games with a certain whiff of dread, though. They simply are almost out of arms! The North Siders' race to October may simply devolve into a war of attrition against themselves. Nevertheless, these three pitchers were not only successful in June, but in their own ways emblematic of the team as a whole. Ranking Cubs' Best Pitchers in June 3rd Place: Shota Imanaga 1-0, 4.13 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 28 IP, 5 BB, 23 K, 7 HR allowed The Good When you look at Imanaga’s June, he was battling on the mound. While he wasn’t involved in many decisions, the Cubs did go 4-1 in his five starts. Imanaga has also averaged just one walk per start, keeping runners off the bases. He also continues to be just a fun, expressive player; he’s easy to root for. As the last man standing from the projected rotation, Imanaga is quite important the rest of the way. The Impending Doom Seven home runs this months is emblematic of the staff as a whole. The Cubs lead the entire MLB in home runs allowed, and the new batch of 2019-style 'bouncy balls' won’t help. Wrigley winds seem to have gone back to their classic mode as well. Imanaga, a noted fly ball pitcher, will have to keep the ball on the infield dirt more to utilize the roster's brilliant defense. He, along with the rest of the staff, should realize that a good defense can’t catch balls that fly onto Waveland. 2nd Place: Ben Brown 2-0, 1.65 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 16 IP, 12 K The Good Brown continued his breakout season last month... until a recurrence of his neck issue from two years ago derailed it. Many internet articles of the theme of “Where would the Cubs be without Ben Brown” were published. Well, I guess we’ll find out! He was putting up great numbers, though it would have been nice to see him maintain that performance across an entire season. At the very least, Brown will have a great Strat-0-Matic card if he takes a while to return tot he mound. The Impending Doom Brown, like the Cubs as a whole, was on a razor’s edge this season. Hard contact was always his bugaboo and his stats masked some troubling trends. Opponents slugged .339 against him in June, up from a stellar .176 in May. The eye test confirmed it as well; teams were starting to solve Ben Brown’s puzzle. The injury happened at the perfect time to preserve his stats and optimism about him as a starter. Razzball fantasy projections have Brown with a 3.72 ERA going forward if healthy. And that’s the rub with the Cubs' rotation: Most of these guys aren't great pitchers. They’re all capable of a solid stretch, but the most important guys are already injured. They can replace an average pitcher with another (at least close to) average guy in most cases. Brown was evolving beyond that threshold in 2026, but for now, the team will attempt to replace his production with David Peterson. Winner: Ryan Rolison 2-0, 1 save, 0.68 ERA, 15 K in 13 IP, 0.68 WHIP The Good Jed Hoyer found another reliever on the scrap heap, turning trash into treasure. Rolison has been an opener, closer, high-leverage guy, and overall godsend to the otherwise beleaguered bullpen. While not fully inspired with confidence so far, this seems to be the Brad Keller find of the offseason, and kudos to Hoyer for identifying the traits he had that led to his success so far. The Impending Doom Rolison could implode, joining the other failed signings of Hunter Harvey, Phil Maton, Hector Neris, and basically anyone Hoyer has signed to high-dollar relief deals. The bullpen's larger issues are being masked by the unlikely success that Rolison is having. Any regression or injury from the sterling southpaw, and the 'pen will implode even more than it is doing already. So there it is! There’s some good, but there’s impending doom in every area. This team will need to carry its pitching staff if they’re going to make a playoff run, though perhaps some better health in the second half (we should be so lucky) could flip the script. View full article