Brian Kelder

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images One constant in the Jed Hoyer era, as middling as it has been, is the constant churn of bullpen arms. The Cubs have not been able to consistently develop arms internally, despite the much-ballyhooed Pitch Lab; Tyler Zombro being hired from Tread Athletics; and copious amounts of money poured into the IVY model. The bullpen has not been stable for years. So what's going on? Why do fans, year after year, have to watch a bullpen flounder for a couple of months? THE 2023 MIRAGE For an analytically savvy front office, they have a shocking history of bringing back relievers after a good season that was obviously an outlier, even in real time. Since 2023, there's been a parade of mediocre relievers brought back after career seasons: Mark Leiter, Jr.: Age 32, 77 K in 64 IP, 3.52 ERA. Next season: 4.21 ERA, traded to Yankees Julian Merryweather: Age 31, 3.38 ERA, 98 K in 72 IP. Due to injuries, has not pitched 72 innings in his other four seasons combined. Adbert Alzolay: 22 Saves, 67 K in 64 IP. Next season: 4.67 ERA, eventual Tommy John surgery Jose Cuas: 3.04 ERA, 19 K in 24 IP. Next season: released with 7.43 ERA in 13 IP These guys were the backbone of the 2023 surprise bullpen, and all were brought back for the next season. At the time, fans weren't exactly clamoring for them to be replaced. But they all had red flags. Alzolay and Merryweather had just completed the only healthy season in their careers. Cuas had always had massive control issues, and Leiter is simply not a high-leverage reliever. All were brought back in 2024, and their season was lost before the bullpen could be fixed. THE UNLEARNED LESSON Now, in 2024, they did save the pen with Tyson Miller and Jorge López, both of whom moved on and have not pitched consistently in the major leagues since then. But then: Porter Hodge: 1.88 ERA, 9 saves, 52 K in 43 IP. Since then: 33 IP, 6.27 ERA Héctor Neris: No. We don't want to relive that. But he was the big signing. Nate Pearson: deadline move, 2.73 ERA. Released in 2025 with a 9.20 ERA. So, this was supposed to be Hoyer's strong suit. Neris didn't work out and was cut loose. Hodge and a bunch of people off the scrap heap somehow cobbled together a solid bullpen. While the team in 2024 only won 83 games, it emboldened Hoyer to scrimp and save on the bullpen for another year. Now, an observer would notice that it did work, and also point to other pitchers' struggles as proof of concept for Hoyer. Tanner Scott, for example, pitched to just a 4.74 ERA after signing his four-year, $72-million deal in 2025. Bryan Abreu, long a co-ace in the Astros' pen, is struggling this year to a 7.17 ERA. Due to the nature of their work, even the most stalwart bullpen arms can have down seasons. Injuries are a huge factor, too. Edwin Díaz is on the shelf for months because of an elbow issue. Josh Hader just returned after spending the first two months on the IL. To counter this, at least Scott and Abreu had long bodies of work to support keeping them around. Guys like Leiter (4.62 career ERA) or Merryweather (yearly injuries to the pitching arm) were relied on for the Cubs at the same level that Scott is. And to be fair to Scott, he's rebounded this year with a 2.36 ERA and is serving as the Dodgers' first option at closer (even if that's only because of Díaz's absence). Reliable arms aren't cheap or sure things, but they are more reliable than pitchers like Hunter Harvey or Neris. The elite sheer stuff of those pitchers sets a high floor for them, too. When you gamble on Leiter's 90-MPH heater and floater of a curve (even if it comes with a great splitter), you're drawing to a straight. When you do it with a guy who throws 98 and has a plus slider, you're betting with a strong pair in the hole. THE 2025/26 LOOP CYCLE Now for some 2025 relievers: Caleb Thielbar: 38 years old, 2.64 ERA. This year: 4.20 ERA and 4 homers allowed in 15 IP Ryan Pressly (bad), Ryan Brasier (meh) and Drew Pomeranz (not bad) brought in at 36-37 years old. To the front office's credit, all now elsewhere. Even Colin Rea has pitched to a 4.59 ERA this season, after 3.95 last year. And do we have to mention Phil Maton, a 33-year-old on his sixth team in three seasons, or Hunter Harvey, who (of course) is injured? Hoby Milner at age 35, with an ERA over 4.00? Hoyer gets credit for the Jacob Webb signing, which is turning out nicely, and he did spend a bit of real money to bring in Maton and Harvey, whose track records are stronger than past targets. It's a bit like being told to clean your room and stuffing everything into drawers and closets, though, and we've seen that sitcom moment where the closet is opened and red rubber balls bounce out like they'd been stuffer in there with a pant and a heave. The common thread is expecting, or hoping, that relievers can repeat career years in their 30s. Bullpens are notoriously volatile; relievers in their mid-to-late 30s are even more so. Hoyer continues to treat temporary success as stable, repeatable production. Until this changes, Cub fans can expect to ride even more early-season roller coasters of relief production in the future. Until the team can shore up its pitching development infrastructure and build good, hard-throwing relievers from within, though, Hoyer has no choice but to do some version of this. He's claimed or purchased Doug Nikhazy, Tyler Ferguson, Luis Peralta, Eduarniel Nuñez and Christian Roa, just within the last six weeks. So, the questions are: Can any of those guys help this team survive this year? Will the Cubs ill-advisedly bring back any of them, if so? And (worst and scariest but certainly most important): Can a Hoyer-led front office ever fix the team's developmental woes? View full article

The Cubs in the past few days have added a couple of relief options to their system. First from Dodgers reporter Fabian Ardaya. Ignore the Glasnow part unless you own him in fantasy, and the second sentence has it. Antoine Kelly has not pitched in the major leagues after beginning his career in 2019. This season, he's toiled in Triple-A Albuquerque, struggling to a 5.14 ERA in 21 innings pitched. In 2025 he was in the Rockies' system and performed similarly with a slightly worse 5.63 ERA. Kelly was acquired for cash considerations and will report to Triple-A Iowa, where he'll look to get his chance given all of the injuries the Cubs' staff has had. And second, from the Des Moines Register's Andrew Birch: Wantz, age 30, started in the Los Angeles Angels' system, toggling between the majors and minors since his debut in 2021. The Rays picked him up in 2024 after an elbow injury, and he was let go after allowing five runs in 1 2/3 innings on Saturday. Wantz does have some success in the highest level, striking out 127 in 120 innings pitched over his career. His strikeout rate has dipped though, and he will look to increase his metrics and his success in Iowa to start. If he can, there are ample opportunities to contribute to the big club if Wantz can handle it. View full rumor

Matt Shaw is ready to return to Chicago, according to ESPN reporter Jesse Rogers: Shaw, nursing a sore back, will replace Kevin Alcantara on the big league roster. Currently, Shaw is hitting .242 with a .297 OBP in part-time work for the Cubs. In four rehab games, he hit .286 with a .375 OBP and zero home runs. Shaw will look to give struggling regulars like Alex Bregman, Nico Hoerner, and Dansby Swanson some rest as well as logging time in the outfield, where he played some in his brief rehab stint. Alcantara played sparingly in his 17 games in Chicago, and his baserunning gaffe late in Sunday's game likely was the last straw for manager Craig Counsell. He'll take a .111 batting average with him and look to further develop in Iowa, where he'll have consistent playing time. View full rumor

Go ahead and read my Dark Timeline article!

I shoulda wrote how Colson Montgomery went right after him. Doh!

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images Sunday, May 31. The Cubs faithful sit in front of the screen, tuning in to NBC or Peacock, looking forward to a rivalry tilt against the Cardinals. High off of Pete Crow-Armstrong's epic Saturday night, momentum is there to be seized. All optimism was destroyed after looking at the starting pitcher. Jordan Wicks was tasked with taking the mound. Momentum is the next day's starting pitcher, and this one was a brick wall—a stopper, but for a winning streak, rather than a losing one. A competitive team like the Cubs cannot keep giving starts to guys that they clearly have no faith in. They (rightfully) distrust Jordan Wicks, and he proved that distrust correct, failing to reach the third inning and allowing three runs. After his even more disastrous first start, his ERA sits at an incredible 15.63. These were two throwaway starts, and a game or two can make a huge difference when the calendar flips to September. Don't get me wrong: Jordan Wicks isn't to blame. Jed Hoyer and the Cubs' failure to develop pitching depth are. But it's the injuries, right? No team can weather such a storm? Well, look north up I-94, and there's a perfect example. The Milwaukee Brewers, faced with a similar crunch on April 7 of last year, made an under-the-radar deal for Quinn Priester from the Boston Red Sox. He was more than solid; he finished 13-3 with a 3.32 ERA in his 24 starts. The Brewers saw a need, identified a target, and used excess prospects to get the player in, and it helped them to a first-place finish. This year, they are facing similar struggles—and are winning the division. Brandon Woodruff and young prospect Logan Henderson are on the shelf, and prize trade return Brandon Sproat (obtained for Freddy Peralta) was just called out from his manager with his current 6.24 ERA. But Coleman Crow has filled in with two solid starts and Chad Patrick with six (2.60 ERA overall). They can thrive in adversity, because they have built tremendous depth from the bottom of the minors to the major-league squad. The Brewers also went back to the well in Boston and traded for Kyle Harrison. Perhaps Boston needs to evaluate their trade process, and avoid Milwaukee? Harrison has been electric, pitching to a 1.57 ERA with 61 strikeouts in 51 innings so far. They dealt extra third baseman Chad Durbin for Harrison, a clear win already. By the by, they also got Shane Drohan, who made a strong (though short) start in their win Monday night, in that same deal. What the Brewers do is identify pitching depth and extract maximum value of the pitchers others overlook. It's the secret sauce to their recent stretch of division dominance. The Cubs, conversely, have not been able to build any pitching depth or develop healthy arms in their system. Jaxon Wiggins, currently injured, is their only top-10 organizational prospect who's a pitcher. Twenty of their top 30 prospects are hitters, and five of the pitchers who show up are in the 20-30 range for the system. Cade Horton had graduated, but the team couldn't figure out a way to outrun his injuries. Unlike other teams, they have zero arms they can call on from the minors to come up and compete. Compounding this issue is the inability to keep arms healthy. Cade Horton is already done this season and much of next, and Justin Steele is trending in that direction. Edward Cabrera has had diminished stuff as a Cub, as well as a blister issue keeping him on the IL. We've already discussed the lack of options in the minors. The Cubs need to be able to generate Chad Patrick-level players, at minimum, to win division titles. This has been their issue for years. Trading for an arm is also problematic. The Cubs don't have an excess of prospects from which to deal from MLB.com 23rd ranked system. They cannot afford to deal Moisés Ballesteros or Matt Shaw. They're too important to the team, regardless of slumps or injuries. And nobody else in the system is exciting enough to entice a team to jump. Cam Smith and Owen Caissie were dealt (for what now feel like underwhelming returns) already. The Cubs do have a few prospects, but none of the major ones are at all expendable; they're the only hope for the Cubs to develop a homegrown core. That's what made Sunday's game so frustrating. Wicks is a symptom of the disease plaguing the Cubs front office. When in desperate need of a major league-quality arm for a start or two, the team with playoff aspirations had nowhere else to turn. For a decade, the Cubs have struggled to produce the pitching depth the Brewers seem to effortlessly churn out. Until that changes, Wicks won't be the last emergency starter trotted out into an impossible situation. View full article

Image courtesy of © Jeff Curry-Imagn Images May was an interesting month for the Chicago Cubs, and ultimately a futile one. The team ended a second 10-game win streak, only to follow with a 10-game streak on the opposite side of the ledger. The lineup, of course, was a huge part of this, and many notable players struggled. Still, there are a few players worth giving some flowers to for trying to keep the offense afloat. Ranking Cubs' Best Hitters in May Carson Kelly: .269/.319/.299, 0 HR, 2 RBI No, these are not stellar stats, but Kelly gets the third place nod for his consistency compared to his expectations. He didn't underperform. Overall, he is providing the value expected of him, which this month was a wonderful blessing for Craig Counsell and the Cubs. While the power hasn't manifested this season, Kelly has been a rare beacon of consistency in May. In losses, he maintained a .391 OBP; in wins it was .386. Player stats tend to be lower in losses, so this is a rare win for the Cubs lineup. Another metric Kelly has done well with is batting with runners in scoring position. The veteran catcher has an .869 OPS in those situations, with a .289/.385/.467 slash line. By virtue of his consistency, and due to a lack of better options, Carson Kelly is third for this prestigious made-up award. Michael Busch: .300/.446/.510, 4 HRs, 24 RBIs Yes, Michael Busch is a good hitter, and he showed that this month. After a lackluster start (.576 OPS in April) when the rest of the lineup was clicking, Busch's stats went a bit under the radar due to the rest of the team struggling. Busch was the only consistent power bat for the month. Busch has adapted to playing every day against left-handed starters overall. He's getting on base against them at a solid clip, with a .338 OBP. Nothing else has been great, however; his batting average is just .197 against them, and his OPS dips 200 points, from .816 against RHP to .616 vs. LHP. Against starting pitchers, though, Busch has done well with his platoon disadvantage. He's hitting .296 against them with 3 homers in 58 plate appearances. That's solid! Relievers, though, pitching in higher-leverage spots and designed to maximize platoon advantages, have had his number. He's 1-20 against them. That is the only flaw so far in Busch's profile. Ian Happ: .230/.347/.480, 6 HRs, 19 RBIs No, these numbers aren't as good as Michael Busch. No, they aren't particularly close. But Happ, more than any other player, is representative of the struggles and successes of the Cubs as a whole. Happ's stats from May have hilarious splits. Last 7 Days: .323/.344/.710, 3 HR Last 14 Days: .216/.259/.471, 3 HR Happ tends to look awful at the plate for long stretches only to morph into Ted Williams at a moment's notice. Before his last seven-game heater, Happ was 1-for-20 in the week prior. He was so off, he got a couple of reset games, then came back strong last week. He's not the best hitter, but he does get the award due to being emblematic of the Cubs as a whole. Having ten-game win streaks and loss streaks consecutively is the definition of streaky; so is Happ, obviously. Overall, he'll end up with the same numbers, but the ride will of course be a wild one. So, as a nod to the Cubs' hot-to-cold nature, we'll give the award to their most notorious hot-to-cold hitter. To wrap this up, let's have a little extra fun with Happ. The main thing that stands out is that he hits cleanup, but is notably bad in clutch situations. It's not just noise either; Happ has awful numbers. He has 9 RBIs in the cleanup spot, which extrapolated to 162 games puts him on pace for around 40. His strikeout rate spikes to 40% (36% strikeout rate during the losing streak). It's not fair to compare Happ to other teams' cleanup hitters. That's simply a function of the position player group composed without an alpha bat. To make matters worse for Happ, he's notoriously bad when the team loses. When they're behind, he has 35 strikeouts in 76 at bats and just a .158 batting average. That type of production is covered over in wins, but when the team goes on a losing bender the memories of whiffs with runners on optically stands out. Happ will look to be more consistent, but don't expect it. Just expect a WRC+ between 116-122, walk rate around 15%, a .240 batting average, and 20 HR and you'll be satisfied. View full article

According to this article from The Athletic's Sahadev Sharma, Justin Steele is progressing from his elbow setback. While the veteran lefty is not throwing as of yet, he is progressing to some strengthening exercises. There is no timeline as of yet for his eventual return to throwing and a rehab assignment. The updated timeline puts any 2026 return for Steele in jeopardy. In a best-case scenario, he starts throwing again in June, with a lengthy ramp-up. This would potentially allow him to pitch in August, given no setbacks. Another flare-up of the elbow would end his season. Basically, the Cubs can't count on Steele to carry them down the stretch, which, given the state of the current rotation, would help the team a lot. Edward Cabrera is currently sidelined with blisters and has a checkered injury history. Matthew Boyd is no spring chicken either and has only pitched over 100 innings once this decade. Arms are always needed in a season, and the Cubs are no exception. Despite consternation about the Cubs' hitting, the rotation is the area with the lowest floor on the roster. Justin Steele will continue his own path to health. The Cubs need to hope this path leads to the mound in 2026. View full rumor

I think he needs room to develop and some rope, but this team needs success, so the rope is pretty limited.

His metrics are absolutely awful, but it's a solid flyer.

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images The Cubs are broken, and the system that they have relied on is the cause. For years, the team has sought to contend by eliminating risk. This year, the pendulum has swung to safety too much, and the IVY model cannot save it. Since the glory days of 10 years ago (or, rather, since five years before that; the transformation was well underway by the year they finally won the World Series), the Cubs have gradually drifted toward a modeling scouting system rather than old-school, boots-on-the-ground scouting. Sadahev Sharma and Patrick Mooney's article from the Athletic in 2024 will get you up to speed on this if you haven't been already. It's time for the Cubs to update their process by going in a more traditional direction—not as a way to turn back, but as a means of moving forward. Jed Hoyer has built a roster with a high floor. By design, the team has eschewed high-dollar contracts to the top talents in the game, seeking to raise the ceiling by first raising the floor. The issue comes when players age: much like the belly of an aging man, the floor drops with age. Skilled scouting in person would identify certain things that the models wouldn't be able to identify. All contracts are placed through a risk filter; any valuation deemed too risky by the computers leads the team to walk away from a could-be deal. Models are, of course, important. Every organization uses them for aging curves, swing path, contact profiles, and spin rate. But the Cubs increasingly look like a team wedded to their process, to the exclusion of the human elements of roster construction, development and communication. The roster was designed to not collapse. It is, ironically, doing so because of the roster design. The Cubs are filled with reliable veterans with a solid track record. But there is a hidden regression in older players that models can't always predict. As players age, they can go from "good" to "declining" quickly, and from there, it's not far to see "Ryan Pressly" in their player comparison. Nobody can project what a player will look like when their skills begin to decline perfectly. In-person scouts can see things that models miss: guessing on pitches, confidence in abilities, recovery from injury, adaptability to environments, and dealing with failure over a long season. It's hard to measure until they happen, and, as we saw last year with Pressly, once it happens it's sometimes too late. Pressly was brought in to be the steady closer. Scouting could have seen some of his decline coming ahead of time. Really, the Cubs did see it, but they let their evaluation systems sell them on trading for him, anyway. Intangibles cannot be measured by analytical models, either. Star players, regardless of their personality type, help a clubhouse. Pressure on lesser players is alleviated when players like Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber, and Bobby Witt, Jr. shoulder the lion's share of it. This team, though, the pressure seems to be felt by every player equally. When the offense is purring, great things (like 10-game winning streaks) can happen. But year after year, Jed Hoyer's approach leads to steep cliffs of run production—ones that spiral into a vortex of futility for weeks. Players all feel the pressure on themselves to break the team out of its funk, which makes sense because one weak link can destroy the chain. These are the human moments that in-person scouting can help figure out. This team, built largely to raise their floor, was not built to sustain any regression further than what could be projected. When Cade Horton was injured, there was no way to replace what he would have provided. Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman are locked in for years. If their decline this year is real, this will age quite poorly. No model engine will churn out a prediction that Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki go a fortnight without coming up with a big hit, but we just saw that happen. The Cubs invested heavily in their process, and they believe it's the best approach. Unfortunately, they have been overconfident in the models and underestimated the human side of baseball. The Brewers, for example, have a robust scouting system to validate their models. The Rays and Dodgers, noted for their intelligence, function similarly. Models are great for spitting out data and recommendations; how a player fits in the clubhouse and roster is where scouts are needed. The Cubs are a team built to accumulate WAR, not wins. They need to strike a better balance in their team-building approach going forward. Winning the division in PECOTA doesn't mean anything when the Brewers continually outclass the Cubs. In this season, one where the team was expected to contend for a World Series, the team has no model-based answer for what they need to do. As humans, they have to show it on the field. View full article

According to USA Today columnist Bob Nightengale, the Cubs have signed veteran reliever Aaron Bummer to a minor-league contract. Bummer was released from the Atlanta Braves in his third season there after struggling to a 7.63 ERA in 19 appearances. In 2025, he was much more successful, striking out almost a batter per inning with a 3.52 ERA. Bummer returns to Chicago, where he debuted back in 2017. For his career, his ERA is 3.44 with a 1.34 WHIP. His velocity has slipped in his age-32 season down to 90 mph from 93 just two seasons ago. Fans shouldn’t expect much, but he could play a role in Chicago if he can limit hard contact and walks. He’ll look to recapture his career success in Iowa’s bullpen. View full rumor

According to Bruce Levine of 670 The Score, Jordan Wicks will get another chance to prove himself this weekend. Wicks gave up eight runs in 4 2/3 innings in his first start, but with Matthew Boyd needing a rehab start, Wicks will toe the mound at least one more time. His numbers in Triple A Iowa were stellar in 2026: 12 strikeouts in 15 innings while allowing just seven hits and one earned run. The 26-year-old lefty is running out of time to cement a role in the Cubs staff, both this season and long term. He’ll need a good performance to regain momentum against the Cardinals this weekend. View full rumor

According to Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic, the Chicago Cubs are signing Liam Hendriks to a minor-league deal. Hendricks, now 37, has been a free agent since the Minnesota Twins granted his release. The righty pitcher's velocity was down to 93.4 miles per hour; it peaked in 2022 at 97. For Boston last year, he tallied a 6.59 ERA in 13.2 innings. It's purely an upside play that Hendricks has one more year to squeeze out of his arm. Since 2022, injuries and health have dominated Hendricks' story. He overcame cancer, only to succumb to Tommy John surgery in his return season. With numerous relievers on the shelf, the Cubs will look to catch lightning in a bottle with Liam Hendricks. He was one of the most dominant relievers in the sport from 2018-2022 and the Cubs will look to unlock some more magic for their late innings. View full rumor