How Worried Should We Be About Michael Busch's Swing Speed?

Through 10 games, the Cubs aren't just a disappointing 4-6, but an anemic 4-6. Their lineup has been lousy, and their best hitter from 2025 is one reason for the shortfall. Michael Busch batted .261/.343/.523 last year; he's off to a .176/.310/.235 start this spring. It's early, and Busch is being exposed to left-handed pitchers more often, but still: this is an issue. He's not hitting the ball hard or on a line as often.

The culprit? Bat speed. Busch, never a hard swinger, is down to 67.6 mph in average swing speed this year. This could be due to cold weather, or he could simply not be fully loosened up yet. What we know for sure, though, is that it’s come along with being pitched to differently—and that he's failing the league's latest test.

A staggering 69.2% of pitches to the slugger have been fastballs this year. Busch has only hit .167 on these pitches. He has simply been overwhelmed by velocity. This was the opposite last year; Busch hit .269 with a .535 slugging average on fastballs. This could be because he's seeing more lefties; he's on pace for well over twice as many left-on-left plate appearances as he had in 2025. Pitchers do much better with their fastballs against same-handed hitters, and are usually more willing to throw them. It could just be that Busch's timing is a bit off, too.

Either way, we should note that seeing more heaters is part of the reason why we're getting a lower reading on his swing speeds, too. Statcast reports that number based on the momentary velocity of the barrel at the hitter's contact point on each swing. Naturally, hitters catch fastballs deeper in the zone, which usually means the bat is still going slightly slower. Busch's bat speed is down even if we isolate fastballs, though, so that's not the full story. However, we can also note that he's significantly shortened his swing this year, which nearly always results in less sheer bat speed and which might simply be Busch nursing an injury or dealing with the cold. If he'd lost bat speed despite the pitch mix against him being the same and/or without a concomitant reduction in swing length, it would be more alarming, but as it is, these factors should be somewhat reassuring.

We haven’t been told a reason for Busch’s slower swing, and might not find one. What we do know is the Cubs need a better version of their first baseman than the first 10 games have seen. Hopefully, the swing can get to a speed where he can do damage again.

The other metrics support a Busch rebound. The plate approach is sublime; he’s making sound swing decisions. Better bat speed would yield better results for a Cub team off to a subpar start, but Busch might also find success with this shorter swing, or the swing might quicken as the weather warms and the arrythmia of the early season gives way to the routine players love. It's not too early to note this, but it's certainly too soon to panic about it.