Hello Cubs World, 

It is about time to give you my division standing predictions for the Cubs and their rivals. 

Before I do so, let me remind you that at the beginning of the 2025 season I scored the Cubs at 92.5 Wins, and the Cubs did, in fact, land at 92 Wins whereas PECOTA had them at 90.5. I also predicted the Brewers at 90 wins (+8 MOJO), outperforming PECOTA's 82; however, they had a generational overshoot of expectations.  

My MOJO Chemistry system adjusts PECOTA for 6 common team-level factors: 

Total MOJO = Momentum + Organization +Job Role + Offering Diversity + Injury Risk + Slugging Bonus

MOJO Scores run to a maximum of +10 (I had the 2025 Brewers at +8) and a minimum of -10 (2024 White Sox). These scores require hand-smoothing to ensure that league records add up to the correct number of total (symmetrical) wins and losses. Any outlier results above or below + or - 10, such as the Brewers's insane + 15 wins last year, cannot be explained by MOJO alone, and generally involve insane luck for player results. The Brewers' pitching staff outperformed their raw ability to a once-in-a-generation level, and then promptly collapsed against the Dodgers in the pennant series. Basically, it would be foolish to ever expect a team to outperform their individual talents to such a level, so we can generally ignore the Brewers' FREAKISH +15 outcome. They weren't honestly THAT good, as proven by the fact that they only beat us in the 5th post-season game due to key Cubs injuries.   

In my approach, I modify basic WAR projections with "bonus points" that capture the completeness of a team and its spirit: 

Momentum (+2 to -1 range) - great teams, like the 2023 Braves, play their career best ball due to high team morale and charismatic stars leading the late season battle. These teams get hot and become unbeatable for stretches of time, particularly in September and October. As part of momentum, I also consider the value of having multiple young players on a confident trajectory to have breakout statistical performances. It is in this particular area where the 2025 Cubs shined, with PCA, Busch, and Shaw all with high upside potential on the same roster at once. Exuberant youth energy tends to pay off. 

Organization (+3 to -2 range) - some organizations are "winning organizations", with exceptional coaches and managers that fight for every win. Like the Brewers, Astros, and of course the Yankees- they seem to get the best out of healthy players. I didn't give the 2025 Cubs any help in this category, but with Counsell and Hottovy on board, and with excellent baserunning coaching, the Cubs are developing a powerful organizational identity with bonus qualities. 

Job Roles (+2 to -2 range)- a great roster has a "complete set" of role players for every key postseason role- a true closer, an electric leadoff hitter, a scary cleanup hitter, a worthy ace, and so on. The Cubs were one of the most complete teams in the National League in 2025,, but got even better in the 2026 offseason. I had hoped for Bregman to complete our roster, and lo and behold, we have him now. We lost our Ace, Cade Horton, but are so rotationally deep that Imanaga and Cabrera can cover for it. 

Offering Diversity (+2 to -1 range) - Finally, a great bullpen is a Swiss Army Knife of great pitches to handle every type of opponent. Similarly, a great hitting lineup has the right balance of all bat and run skills to put together rallies, get game winning RBIs, and flexibility to shift between powerball and smallball as the situation requires. The 2025 Cubs had good balance overall but were unable to sustain season-long superstar bat performances compared to the Dodgers, Blue Jays, and Braves. Their big hopes for improvement over 2025 come from Moises Ballesteros and a more experienced Matt Shaw, with Bregman being a wash compared to Kyle Tucker. 

Injury Adjustments (0 to -3 range) - Certain teams put too much faith in a healthy lineup, which sinks their true depth. I deduct up to 3 WAR for teams with highest injury risk in key roles. Most of this risk is already picked up by other stats, such as Job Role and Offering Diversity, so I try not to double count those penalties. I do not award bonus WAR for teams with healthy profiles. The Cubs were hammered by injury risk last year and are still vulnerable to it. Too many of their pitchers have rough histories and early season injuries. This is also a key factor for the Dodger not performing up to their projections - they are deep in injury-prone pitching. 

Slugging - (+1 to - 1 range) This is a very small bonus for regular season play but is a larger factor in the small sample, high pressure postseason situation. The top 2 slugging teams per League receive +1 win bonus, and the bottom 2 are deducted 1 win. Slugging is simply an expected tiebreaker stat in close postseason matchups. This bonus structure clearly evolves over the history of baseball, but currently it's a homerun biased game, rather than batting average-biased game as it was in the early years. The Cubs are a threat to be a top 3 NL slugging team this year, but as of yet I cannot give them #2 credit. 

                                     Momentum      Organization      Job Roles       Offering Diversity      Injury Risk       Slugging

CUBS MOJO, 2026:         1                             1                         1                              1                       -2                      0
 

The Cubs clearly have high morale coming off the 2025 season. With so many elite gloves and media-popular stars, we have to give them a bit of credit. However, we will cap that to 1 bonus, as the Cubs also have a long history of homestand slumps that transcend the otherwise great Wrigley ballpark vibe.  In terms of Organization, we add one game since Jed Hoyer has proven he can assemble a contender, and a great coaching staff, without spending like Steve Cohen's drunken Mets binges. Our Job Role situation would be even better except our bullpen closer role is too thin - both closer candidates are already hurt. Our Offering Diversity was limited last year, but now we have a well-above-average balance of sidearms, extenders, spitters, knuckle curves, elite velocity fastballs, and so on.  We also have a bench capable of hitting or fielding in almost any situation mainly due to Matt Shaw and Michael Conforto being unusually good in their roles and being three-deep in catchers. However, our injury risk is serious. After losing Cade Horton, Justin Steele suffering a setback, and with aforementioned problems in the bullpen, we must reduce that stat by 2.    

The Cub's NF Central division is among the most positively adjusted divisions for MOJO in baseball this year: a rare occurrence for either Midwest division. The Cubs would have a bit more bonus in wins, were it not for this tough scenario. Here are the current PECOTA projections as of May 1, and my MOJO ADJUSTED results: 

PECOTA Standings - Baseball Prospectus

Division Summary:   MOJO ADJUSTED   MAIN LOGIC
CUBS             92.1           94                 With healthy pitching, it'd be a juggernaut. Needs 2 big midseason bullpen adds. 

BREWERS     83.4          88                 Brewers find a way. Elite momentum + org,, but injuries and little depth. 

REDS            80.6          84.5              Reuniting with Suarez was huge - a more complete club with big enthusiasm.  

PIRATES       80.1           83                 Severely lacking in pitching depth but are rising with a decent batting order.  

CARDINALS  73.8          70,5              A demoralized team cannot win, even if they show flashes of good baseball.

Conclusion

Well, there you have it. I Expect the Cubs to top out at 94 wins. The main thing Holding Hoyer back is his insistence on developing players for the long run instead of using a win-now approach with his young talents. Suppose he rushed Kevin Alcantara (3 OF position backup) and Jonathon Long (righty first baseman to platoon for Busch) into the majors, dropped Nicky Lopez, and traded Michael Conforto for a bullpen pitcher, and merely turned to minor league infielders as subs in case of injury rather than having them ride the bench uselessly. (Matt Shaw can cover the infield quite fine, thank you very much). There's a likelihood Hoyer could squeeze a couple of more wins out of this season - I'd give them 96 instead of 94,. simply for acting like a "win now" organization (+2 org) and elite bench depth (+2 offering diversity). On the other hand, I can see why Hoyer is conserving his depth for the postseason. Hence, winning the World Series is a different goal than winning in the regular season, and its often the case that teams like the Brewers flame out, while teams like the Dodgers make it across the finish line because they were built more for the postseason than merely "win-maxxing".  

The big concern, going forward, is injury depth in the bullpen. If Hoyer takes our world series chances seriously and lands two elite pitchers (1 starter, 1 closer/setup) for the late season stretch, we can expect a serious World Series run If he tries to be "financially creative", we can expect a repeat of 2025: a postseason collapse driven by a bullpen-by-committee, and injuries to the front of the rotation.  He will need to move multiple prospects, but we have them to trade - at best, I see 4 of our top 10 prospects will find roster spots, opening day Wrigley, in 2027... Jaxson Wiggins #3 in rotation (for Taillon), Kevin Alcantara RF (for Suzuki), and Jonathon Long DH/1B (for Carson Kelly, with Ballesteros becoming a fulltime catcher in 2027).... and 1 of our several utility infielders sticking on the bench (bye bye Kingery, Lopez, etc.)