Is There Any Way Moisés Ballesteros Goes Back to Iowa When Seiya Suzuki Returns?

It wasn't a dazzling first week for Cubs designated hitter Moisés Ballesteros. The rookie only batted .167 during the team's season-opening homestand, with two walks but no extra-base hits. He looked great in limited playing time last year, so it would make no sense to jump to conclusions based on this, but big-league pitchers will adjust as they get a longer look at the young could-be slugger.

The main difference in pitcher attack toward Ballesteros is an increased amount of breaking pitches. Last year, he saw fastballs 53% of the time, and breaking balls 18%. This year, however, pitchers are dealing with him differently, throwing an equal number of breaking pitches and fastballs (37%). He's only 1-for-9 on breaking pitches in the early going. 

It also seems the youngster is making an effort to elevate the ball more, tapping into previously unseen power. His fly ball rate, pull rate, and especially balls pulled in the air (20%, up from 4% last year) point to those efforts. However, the balls hit in the air are not at a high velocity, leading to routine flies, pop outs, and happy pitchers. The samples are all tiny; we have to be cautious. But so far, he's not getting the juice, despite his firmer squeeze.

This is a major shift from what Ballesteros showed in the minors. He was an extreme line-drive hitter, capable of hitting the ball to all fields with occasional power. In the minors, he never exceeded 19 home runs. There has been a subtle change in the tilt of his swing (2°), but we can't yet evaluate that datum. It's a slight adjustment, not an overhaul, and it might just be a response to the way he's being pitched. The swing is just a little bit longer as well. It seems, in this minuscule sample, that he's made changes to improve his power production. 

Ballesteros has seen an uptick in whiff rate, chase rate and strikeout rate. With more experience (and more reps—again, sample size is an obstacle to analysis here), this should work itself out. There was no issue with these things in the minor leagues, even though he was consistently young for his level. There's not enough data to support concern about his pitch recognition, especially when the conditions were far less than ideal for most of the games this week.

Manager Craig Counsell went to the team's hitting coaches this spring with a simple instruction when it comes to Ballesteros: "Leave him alone." Presumably, they'll hold to that advice. There should be no need for a swing change. Most of his changes are subtle, and it's far too early to make sense of the data noise. 

The leash for Ballesteros will be long, but it's not infinite. Seiya Suzuki's return looms in the next couple of weeks, and though the plan will be for him to play right field most of the time, some of his at-bats could come as the DH, reducing the playing time available to Ballesteros. He could, in turn, pick up the occasional start at catcher, but the Cubs have two other backstops on the roster and have yet to deploy Ballesteros there in the regular season.

It's early, and the adjustments could pay off in the end. It's just been one week. Ballesteros is in no imminent danger of being optioned to Iowa, but if he doesn't hit at all over the next week or two, they could reconsider on that front once Suzuki returns. Time in Iowa would mean reps at catcher, which could finish off Ballesteros's development at that position. For now, just monitor his work. The team is invested in and dedicated to Ballesteros emerging as a regular, and they're unlikely to give up on him easily—but the right confluence of performances by him and a few teammates could still result in a sojourn in Des Moines later this month.