Shota Imanaga Needs a New Way to Change Up on the Brewers

Entering his start against the Brewers on May 29, 2024, Shota Imanaga had a 0.84 ERA in his first ride of the MLB circuit. That didn't last. Milwaukee put a hurt on him, scoring seven runs on eight hits in 4 1/3 innings. Ever since, the team has been Imanaga's bugaboo—just as they have been for the Cubs, as a whole.

Last May 4, Imanaga had a very good start going at Uecker Field in Milwaukee, before he pulled up lame while covering first base. The hamstring strain sidelined him for the better part of two months, and he wasn't the same down the stretch. However, last August 21, he did have a great start: seven innings of two-run ball (albeit in a disappointing 4-1 loss) against the then-rolling Brewers, at Wrigley Field. That was a brilliant piece of pitchcraft, too, because it came via a major departure from his usual plan of attack. Here are all of Imanaga's starts from last season (including the playoffs), by pitch mix:

In only one regular-season game did his splitter usage dip beneath 20%: August 21. Imanaga felt that the Brewers had a tell they were using to sit on his splitter, going back to 2024, so he shoved that pitch to the back burner and went after them another way. It wasn't enough to win, because of a lack of run support, but it was a great tactic. It worked, in that he pitched deep into the game and kept Milwaukee from breaking away.

When the two teams met again in October, though, the magic ran out. Imanaga tried to lean on his fastball and away from the splitter again, but this time, the Brewers punished him. Coming into 2026, he knew he'd need a new wrinkle against the Cubs' top rivals.

Suffice it to say, the one he tried did not work. Here's the same chart as above, but for 2026.

This year, Imanaga has had good feel for the splitter, and he's trusted it as much as ever. He still doesn't think he can sneak it past the Brewers, thouygh, so he tried something truly novel: going to his sinker a lot. Having multiple lefties in the Milwaukee batting order (Brice Turang, Jake Bauers, Christian Yelich, Sal Frelick) made that more viable, but it's clear that Imanaga would have done something different even if he'd faced a righty-loaded version of the Crew. He threw 11 of his 16 sinkers to righties. 

Clearly, he was hoping to give his toughest opponents a look so different that it would take them aback. Just as clearly, it didn't work. The Brewers tagged him for eight runs, this time, and he didn't escape the fifth inning. 

One way or another, for the Cubs to get where they want to go this season, they'll need to beat the Brewers. Right now, one of their few remaining reliable starters doesn't have a roadmap in which he's confident against that team. That's bad news, and Monday's was a bad game—but Imanaga is a master of adjustments, and might have a better plan next time he runs into Milwaukee.