Brian Kelder

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images The Cubs' position player group has been blessed with fairly good health this season. Only Miguel Amaya has missed extended time due to injury. But look at recent seasons, and there’s reason to add to the outfielder group. Seiya Suzuki has missed a month or more in all three of his career seasons, and has not had that this season. Kyle Tucker missed extended time last season. Ian Happ, God bless him, might just need more breaks at almost age 31. Pete Crow-Armstrong sports a .232 OBP against lefties. There’s room for an outfielder in the mix. Who's realistically available and helpful—and on an expiring contract? The one-stop shop could be in Baltimore. Top Orioles decision-maker Mike Elias has telegraphed his desire to get a return on his impending free agents. The Orioles will be sitting out October; time to pillage some outfield depth. Cedric Mullins is in the last year of his deal and shouldn't have an exorbitant price tag. Mullins has two areas of appeal. First, he has a stellar defensive reputation. His range is a bit diminished, relative to his peak, but it remains solid. The overall package suggests a player who can fill in any outfield position, although he’s never played anywhere but center field. You may have wondered why I included Crow-Armstrong’s lefty splits. Mullins addresses this. He’s been a reverse splits guy, and has destroyed lefties to the tune of a .288/.380/.450 line this year. In the dog days of summer, an occasional day off for Crow-Armstrong would for sure be helpful. Mullins addresses some of these needs. Fellow Bird Ramón Laureano might be too good a player to be a backup depth guy. He’s sporting a .514 slugging percentage, good for a career high 133 wRC+. While his range has diminished at age 30, the arm continues to resemble a howitzer. If dealt, he surely would hope to be a starter. But what if the market fails to materialize and the Cubs swoop in? Laureano has been a corner outfield guy primarily, but has manned center often in his career. He would be a more-than-capable fill-in, if injury or prolonged Happ underperformance strikes. These aren’t particularly likely, though—especially if Willi Castro is available from the Twins. He would be able to cover the outfield, as well as the infield. There is one more option, too, but fans might respond to this poorly. Harrison Bader fits. I know, I know: he was terribly annoying as a Cardinal, with his beautiful golden locks and his constant tracking down of fly balls. He’s still really good at outfield defense in Minnesota, his fifth stop in the majors. Imagine that alongside the already Gold Glove-quality center fielder. Bader could make a difference in playoff games and down the stretch, and yes, he hits lefties. Outfield is not the top target for Jed Hoyer this week, but marginal adds like these can be important. Don’t rule out a surprise depth outfield acquisition before Thursday evening. View full article

Me or Bowden lol

According to Jim Bowden of The Athletic, the Cubs continue to be in pursuit of Arizona star 3B Eugenio Suarez. He won’t come cheap, but no good player does. So, what would land Suarez? Bowden floats two names: Kevin Alcántara and Jaxon Wiggins. Alcántara, who has battled injuries and middling results in 2025, would be a part of a package deal. Bowden argues that Wiggins alone, however, could get Suarez. The newly minted top 100 prospect would be a steep price for a rental bat. The Cubs will have to balance this year's needs with the future in this specific trade discussion. Matt Shaw may be making the question moot; he’s hitting .444 with four home runs in the past two weeks. Wiggins, with his 99 MPH fastball, could also be a key part in keeping any contention window open. But Suarez is a 40-home run bat! We shall see. Going to be a fascinating decision. View full rumor

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images With the trade deadline just around the corner, the internet is awash with prospects on the Cubs trading block. But what if—just what if?—Jed Hoyer has a huge deal up his sleeve? He was in the front office for the Red Sox when they dealt Nomar Garciaparra in 2004. Just this year, Rafael Devers was dealt. It would behoove the Cubs to think a little more long-term than just this season. Here are the Cubs position players under team control after 2026: Pete Crow-Armstrong (yay) Michael Busch (sweet) Dansby Swanson (meh) If the front office isn't wise in their asset management, the risk is there of another complete teardown and/or selloff in a short time. Maybe, instead of a rental, Hoyer can get a high-level controllable player this month. The name isn’t even as important as the idea would be. The Cubs' prospects, while decent, are not enough to outbid everyone for the best players available at this deadline. There are just too many questions about each of them. Someone from the big-league team would have to be involved. So hear me out, I know you love these guys. Yes, they’ve been important pieces of what is currently the second-best team in baseball. But here are the players, and the reasons they could be sent packing unexpectedly. Justin Steele As a second piece in a major deal, Steele could be included, giving the Cubs' trade partner a pitcher with a front-end rotation track record and a couple more years of team control. It would be a smart, forward-thinking move. Chicago would get out of any decision about whether to extend an over-30 pitcher with extensive injuries in his past. It's unclear how many innings he'll be able to pitch next year, since he'll be fresh off Tommy John surgery and is unlikely to return to the mound until June or so. On the other side, though, some team could see him as a chance to get a relatively cheap, arbitration-eligible pitcher with a chance to contribute down the stretch next year and in 2027. The Cubs would be wise to explore avenues with their oft-injured erstwhile ace. Of course, he won’t be a headliner in a deal. Injured pitchers alone have very little value. One only has to look at Shane McClanahan to see an injury return go awry; Shane Bieber is another example. The idea in Steele is to put a deal over the top, the cherry on a trade sundae. He’s not helping this year, and probably not a huge chunk of next. That's why the Cubs have to be willing to part ways. An acquiring team would have to believe that whoever does headline the deal makes it worthwhile almost on their own, and that Steele has a good chance to make a medium-term contribution to a team that will be in a better position to win then than they are now. Cubs fans would hate to see him go, for sure. But long-term, he’s a chip, not an ace—not anymore, at the very least. Steele would be an enticing add-on to a deal. A Catcher Reese McGuire has played well. So have Carson Kelly and Miguel Amaya, when the latter was healthy. The issue is that they won’t keep three catchers, and a backstop-needy team would love to have a starting-quality player at that spot. This enviable depth (with Moisés Ballesteros lurking as well) gives the Cubs a unique option. Kelly likely stays, but the other two could fit into various trade permutations. Kelly would get the bulk of playoff at-bats as it currently stands, but McGuire does just enough things well to have some appeal elsewhere, and Amaya would be a high-upside inclusion in a big possible deal. Seiya Suzuki The hard reality is that even a designated hitter who's tapped into their long-awaited power only has so much value. The Cubs could find another way to get production from that spot down the stretch, if the need to do so presented itself, including bringing Ballesteros back for a longer stay. You'd almost certainly have to be acquiring another hitter of some stripe in order to justify this move, be it a controllable long-term piece or a rental like Eugenio Suárez, but if such a chance did arise, moving Suzuki (who's a free agent after 2026) to a team in need of thump in the corner outfield spots or at DH could net the team major talent that better fits their long-term plan. Any Relievers The bullpen is full of reclamation projects. Daniel Palencia should be the only untouchable at this point, and the Cubs shouldn’t hesitate to throw in a big-league reliever if it gets a big deal across the line. Not many are under contract for next season, though, and the guys on expiring deals share one thing in common: they’re old. Old relievers are fungible and unreliable, sometimes from game to game. Obviously, no one is going to trade the Cubs much for a rental reliever, but if the team were to acquire a starter and move Ben Brown permanently to the bullpen, they might like the idea of swapping out an aging veteran for someone like Jack Neely, or Brown - arms they've collected recently by dealing big-league relievers in July. Hoyer has consistently spoken on the need to be creative this summer. Fans have assumed that he just means trying to unearth unexpected targets, but a team president needs to factor in the future as well as the season at hand. He might be thinking about unexpected candidates to move, too. We won't dive in too deeply on the possibility of moving Nico Hoerner or Matt Shaw today, for instance, but there are certainly ways that could happen, too. This has been an exciting and encouraging season, so far. What the Cubs need to do is work to avoid the bottoming-out that has too closely followed other years like this one. Utilizing all their assets (major-league players and prospects, alike) wisely can help ensure that. View full article

Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images Matt Shaw is struggling and losing playing time to players like Jon Berti and Vidal Bruján. His 61 WRC+, lowest exit velocity in baseball, and troubling batted ball metrics are major contributors as to why Cubs third basemen are ranked 29th in MLB in WAR. This is a black hole in an otherwise deep and impressive lineup, and were it not for his impressive defense at the hot corner, there would be arguments that his rookie season profiles as the team's biggest disappointment in 2025. Assuming the front office isn't comfortable strolling into the playoffs with him at the hot corner, there are players available who can fill a short-term need at third base. These three players can do a fine job filling in while Shaw continues developing away from the spotlight of the postseason race. 1. Eugenio Suarez, Arizona Diamondbacks The only reason Suarez is possibly available is due to his pending free agency after this season. He’ll finish with 40+ home runs this year to go with his .911 OPS and 147 wRC+ before hitting the open market. He will have other suitors (the Yankees, Brewers, and Mariners are all in need of his player archetype) and the price will be steep. Cub fans can remember the early season series, where Suarez destroyed five home runs in seven games against the team. He is a noted Cub foe; in 132 career games against them, he’s hit .266 with 36 HR and 94 RBIs. He would be an exciting addition, one that signals an intention to contend in October this year. 2. Willi Castro, Minnesota Twins Another expiring contract, and given the fluid nature of the Twins ownership and unwillingness to add salary, Castro should be available. He would almost assuredly not cost a top 100 prospect, and he'd would add depth to the lineup and bench. In his career, Castro has played every position but first base or right field. The defense is more passable than difference-making, but Cubs fans know as well as anyone how valuable those guys can be (read: Ben Zobrist). Castro would be more of a part-time third baseman with ability to fill in around the diamond. You know, like Jon Berti was supposed to be. He’s cromulent. His .793 OPS is solid this season, and the metrics support his performance. The low price point and versatility move my needle toward his direction. 3. Luis Urias, Oakland A’s Urias has not lived up to the lofty minor league stats he reached as a farmhand in Milwaukee, but he is a dependable player. A consistent, almost-league-average bat is what we would be able to expect. His current .237 average and .678 OPS are right at his career levels. He would not be an upgrade defensively over Shaw (none of these three would) and the same could be said about his offense, but he's a very versatile player who could help relieve Shaw of everyday dutuies. Urias has played other positions around the infield and his flexibility would help, similar to Castro. Another benefit would be his great plate approach. He has an elite strikeout rate and whiff rate; clearly he has great bat control. His power numbers are the casualty of it, however, the Cubs have had success with players with similar profiles. Of course, the Cubs could just roll with Matt Shaw. It doesn’t take long to peruse the annals of Cub history to see a prospect struggle for an extended period and see results click. Whatever the team does at the trade deadline, moves need to be made with the goal of retaining their slim lead in the NL Central. View full article

Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-Imagn Images It is not a crisis. The alarm bells aren’t ringing. There is no need for panic. Yet. The Cubs' rotation is shockingly full of question marks for a team that is in first place at the break. Cade Horton is nearing his career high in innings. Matthew Boyd hasn’t gone this far in a season since 2019. Ben Brown is in Iowa with an ERA over six. Shota Imanaga can’t do it all, can he? Compounding this is the uncertainty for the staff in future years. Justin Steele is no sure bet to return at the same level as before his elbow malfunctioned. Matthew Boyd is 35 and has only one year left. In fact, after 2026, Cade Horton is the lone current member of the rotation under team control. The Cubs are expected to make a move for starting pitching. They have the prospect capital to acquire more than a rental; they will attempt to trade for a piece to close out this competitive window. With that in mind, here are some controllable pitchers from non-contending teams the Cubs should explore. And even better, I’ll explore them and tell Jed what he should do! Option 1: Sandy Alcantara Sandy has had a struggle coming back from Tommy John surgery. There are some factors in his favor. He’s still slinging the fastball at 97, but not getting strikeouts. He has never had a high strikeout rate, though. What’s appealing here is the 46% ground ball rate, given the elite nature of the Cubs' infield defense. Sandy would fit right in with his contact-first philosophy. At $17.3 million next year and a club option for 21, the contract should be affordable. The Cubs have also had success with players who have an elite pitch; Alcantara's is his sinker. If they acquire him, this pitch and the pitch labs' genius could help him regain his past glory. Jed Hoyer should pursue. A perfect target, not without risk, but nobody is. Option 2: Luis Severino As I sat to research Severino, the thought was that a guy with a 95+ heater would add some additional flaming hot spice to the rotation, adding some much-needed strikeout juice. Oops! An 8% strikeout rate and 3rd percentile whiff rate are more Colin Rea than Tarik Skubal (who’s not available). Adding Severino would be more of the same in terms of content. The flip side is that in his 38.2 innings, not in a minor league bandbox of a home field, he has a 0.93 ERA. That’s not without meaning. Also noteworthy is his two additional years at a relatively high salary of $ 47 million. Given his extensive injury history, he is not a good bet. Jed: Stay away from this one. Option 3: Mitch Keller Corner the market on Kellers! Brad has been successful, so why not another? Mitch is a long-term safety play. He’s signed to a reasonable deal through 2028, worth around $ 15 million per year, which is cheaper than Jameson Taillon and similarly productive. This is not an ace. This is a reliable innings-eater and start-maker. Over the last three seasons, he has had 29, 32, and 31 starts. This season, he’s on track to do the same with 20 starts to date. His XERA is a career low 3.81 (3.48 actual ERA). He’s also been healthy; the last injury was a fatigued shoulder in 2022. Keller might not be the fancy ace that wins a playoff series like Madison Bumgarner in 2014, but guys like him are necessary to get there. For innings fillers and out-getters, there are worse than Mitch Keller. Jed, go right ahead on this one. Many expiring pitchers could be acquired to provide help this season at a cheaper cost, both financially and in terms of prospects. If the Cubs are serious about sustainability beyond what seems to be a window that ends in 2026, they need to get some longer-term arms in the system. Time for Jed to get in the kitchen. Let’s see if he can cook. View full article

Image courtesy of © Troy Taormina-Imagn Images This weekend's series loss to the Houston Astros brought up, again, the fascinating trade the Cubs made to nab Kyle Tucker back in December. Cam Smith is batting cleanup for the first-place Astros in his first full professional season. His two home runs and general “gonna be a monster” vibes raise the question: Did the Cubs trade the wrong man? And if Tucker leaves, was this entire trade a bad idea? There are a few factors to consider, if we want to answer those questions. Let's tackle them. Factor 1: Kyle Tucker is a superstar. Just look at this list, sorted by wRC+, of Cubs batting seasons in the past 30 years Yes, at this point he clears every season from The Core, and only Sammy Sosa and Derrek Lee at their absolute best exceed his production. This is what an MVP candidate looks like. Factor 2: Cam Smith is also very good, and under long-term team control. Batting cleanup for a first-place team less than a calendar year after being drafted is quite the feat, even if batting cleanup doesn't mean quite what it used to and even if that team is in first place mainly because of their pitching. Smith tallied a .788 OPS in May and an .887 in June. For the season his wRC+ is 126, or 26% higher than the average player. Again, he is doing this after being drafted just last season. What a delightful, win-win trade. This one will be analyzed for years to come. However, there are two elephants in the room: Elephant 1: Matt Shaw is struggling. The rookie third baseman who made the Cubs so willing to give up both Isaac Paredes and Smith has done nothing well offensively at the major-league level, except put the ball in play a lot. The Astros love bat speed, and they were never going to accept Shaw instead of Smith. However, there might have been another structure the Cubs could have pursued, to hold onto Smith and replace him with multiple pieces or involve a third team. To this point, it’s clear that Smith is the superior player and should have been the highest-rated Cub prospect this offseason. In fairness, some outlets had it that way, all along. The Cubs couldn't have simply chosen Smith over Shaw, without losing their chance to add Tucker, and Smith is not an MLB-capable third baseman. But then again... Elephant 2: Kyle Tucker is unsigned past this season. The Cubs did actively choose Tucker over Smith. They cashed in an elite asset and received one back. But if they don’t sign Tucker after this season, they'll have paid a hefty price for a lone shot at contention, when it turns out (sort of) that they could have done pretty well even by simply standing pat. We have to acknowledge that there's no guarantee Smith would be playing this well if he were still in the Cubs system, or on their big-league roster. In fact, he probably wouldn't be. The Cubs aren't as good at player development as the Astros are, which is a glaring problem—and maybe a bigger one than whether or not they balanced present and future well enough in this deal. If Kyle Tucker walks, this trade could gnaw at Cubs fans for years. Some of that will just be in their heads, since again, Smith might not be this guy if he were still with the Cubs. Nonetheless, dealing a great prospect like Smith means the checkbook needs to be opened to keep Tucker around—if only for our collective mental health. View full article

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images Father's Day was a bit of a bust in my household. A nasty stomach bug laid me up, with no parties welcoming the contaminated and no tasty food or beverages. All there was to do was watch the Cubs and the Pirates in the afternoon. The game wasn't the main thing. Given my physical and mental state, it became more about the sorting of emotions of an old, curmudgeonly fan who still smarts about Kyle Schwarber's non-tender and the bungled negotiations with Anthony Rizzo, to finally accept this team as it is. This writer entered a Cubs fog after those two events, to the point of not watching a single inning after the teardown was complete in 2021. Then, in 2022, with little hope. baseball in the Kelder house was consumed by just watching national broadcasts. The cataracts fogging up the fandom continued, in a self-sustaining cycle of doubt and frustration. Between that game and Pete Crow-Armstrong's eighth inning against the Brewers last Tuesday night, though, clarity emerged. A new prescription was filled, and I fully embraced this team again. To further explore this clarity. you have to go back to Kenosha, Wis., and a six-year-old nerd who would watch every game he could on WGN. Ryne Sandberg was just breaking in, and (in 1984) breaking out on a national level. An all-time MLB legend was my favorite, and that of most Cubs fans I knew, too. I wore No. 23; I played second base (a good fit anyway, given my noodle arm) in high school after moving to Onalaska, Wis.; and when my dad, brother, and I went to Cooperstown, his was the first plaque I visited. Fast-forward to 1998 (and the Sammy Sosa era), if you will. Once again, a Cub was in the national spotlight. Similar to Sandberg, Sosa was revered by most fans, overlooking a few flaws for the experience of rooting for a cartoon-level superhero figure—another Wrigley Field hero. While he did fall, and recently has been restored, Sosa was a guy whom Cubs fans had to watch every time he went up to the plate. Derrek Lee, Anthony Rizzo (though that was more the team than one guy), Javier Báez, Ron Santo, Ernie Banks. Wrigley legends, all. They became synonymous with the experience of that park and its rowdy crowds, through the decades. And we've added another this year. Pete Crow-Armstrong is the Cubs. He's not just a statistical monster, although his numbers hold up well. It's the way the kid plays. He hustles. He plays with flair. He has the best bat flips in baseball, and then when interviewed, he shows a humility that is completely unexpected when watching him play. His dugout antics are hilarious, especially his relationship with Seiya Suzuki. He is everything you can ask for in a baseball player, and he's guaranteed to be a Chicago Cub for at least five more seasons. Cub fans who are (say) 15 and under have their Sandberg, their Sosa. And fans who remember these halcyon days can finally see the torch passed to a new player. The rest of baseball is watching. Pete Crow-Armstrong is the newest Wrigley Field hero, and with his rise has come a return of the feeling around Wrigley that never quite took root even over the last two, tried-and-failed summers. View full article

Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images The Cubs are flying high, with a shiny 41-26 record and a five-game first-place cushion in the NL Central. It's a season with immediate and undeniable playoff vibes, one that harkens back to 1989, 1984, or 2008. With Kyle Tucker likely to walk at the end of the season, they can't waste this hot start, so it's time to address the elephant in the room: The starting rotation is patched together with Scotch tape and elephant glue. Let's assume that Shota Imanaga will return, healthy, and sustain his elite pitching. Also, assume that Jameson Taillon can maintain his control-based, pitch-to-contact profile, without having everything fly over the fence. These two are rock steady. Colin Rea is what he is, as well. Even treating those three as constants, though, the rest of the rotation proposes unanswered questions. And the answers could be thrilling! But they could also drag the season down. With the division ripe for the taking, these are the questions that need to be resolved for each arm. Matthew Boyd: How long does this last? Boyd is like a person of my advanced age going to a New Year's Eve party. You get there at nine. Everything's going great until around eleven, 30 minutes past your normal bedtime. After much yawning and internal debate, the partygoer decides to leave right at 12, after the ball drops. Success! Or is it? How do you think this partier feels the next day? The man pushed himself beyond what he was used to doing, and the results were diminished. Boyd could face a similar fate. He's already made 13 starts on the season. If he makes nine more, that's the total of his last two seasons combined. He's at around 75 innings on the season, compared to 39 in 2024. Boyd is two starts away from matching his highest games started since 2019. He's going to continue to party; can he maintain effectiveness as he gets further into a season than he has in five years? This is a concern. Boyd has been outstanding this year, quieting critics of the signing. He could very well continue on this path; in 2019, he did make 32 starts, and the season before that, he made 31. He does have a history of being a durable starter, then, although his results weren't this good even back then. At 35 years old, Boyd has to answer the question, at least, of whether he can still be a consistent rotation piece for more than a few months at a time. Cade Horton: Health, of course. 53 innings at Oklahoma 88 innings in the Cubs system 34 innings last season A Tommy John surgery in college and a nearly lost season to a shoulder issue in the minors Horton has proved he can be a viable major-league pitcher, from a pure performance standpoint. He certainly has not answered the durability question, and with a career high of 88 innings for any season, he's never had to figure out how to achieve effectiveness at an elevated innings count. The Cubs will have to carefully manage his health going forward, both to protect the asset and see an effective pitcher in October. Garret Crochet is an interesting comparison. He was an elite performer all season last year, his first as a pro starter, but he had a similar injury history. In order to protect the asset for a trade, he had his workload reduced. Horton isn't Crochet, and these Cubs are not last year's White Sox, but some kind of management plan is in order. Horton has become an exciting asset, but one that is not assured to maintain value. It's an open question if he can remain healthy enough and make the adjustments needed to be a rotation option in the playoffs. Ben Brown: What is real, the FIP or the ERA? A 5.37 ERA is not ideal. If Brown's FIP (representing his skill, independent of fielding support) of 3.13 can be attained, though, that would be quite useful. Do we split the difference and use his Statcast expected ERA of 4.23? It's all very confusing. Is he good or not? Brown is a strikeout pitcher with 78 punchouts in 64 innings. FIP loves strikeout pitchers, but ignores the quality of contact. Guys with high strikeouts tend to have lower FIPs, and also tend to be better pitchers. But what if FIP is misleading? Brown has been discussed often, like here, and also Randy Holt has a great take on it. From here, it seems like Brown has the stuff to punch people out, but when it doesn't work, the contact is hard. He's in the bottom 15% of big-league pitchers in hard-hit rate, and the bottom 7% in exit velocity (the bottom, here, meaning the highest numbers; he's among the worst in baseball at preventing loud contact). He's Adam Dunn, but for pitchers; it's either a rocket allowed or a strikeout. Brown has a ton of potential, and the Cubs paid Craig Counsell a hefty sum to help players like him reach it. He could be a traditional starter, a stretched-out reliever type, or a fireman. If he's the latter, the innings will need to be filled elsewhere. Jed Hoyer, to his credit, seems to understand the fragility here. On *The Show* podcast with Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman, he reiterated his desire to add pitching. It may not need to be a frontline ace, but it needs to be someone who can handle innings reliably. This isn’t a year to play it safe. The division is there. The team is fun. And the window—even if briefly—looks open. The Cubs have the chance to make this a party that doesn’t end early or with a headache. All they need to do is bring in some reinforcements before the clock strikes midnight. View full article

May was a wonderful month for the Cubs fans, and also (not coincidentally) for the Cubs lineup. This is a contending team, one that measures up to any team in the National League. So, specifically, who really leveled up in the past 30 days? Hitter #3: Seiya Suzuki It's time to appreciate Suzuki for what he is: a consistent run producer. His 27 May RBIs is quite the impressive number, and he's on pace to tally an average of one per game for the season. While short of Hack Wilson's 191 from 1930, Lou Gehrig's 185, or other anti-Depression ball insanity, maybe he can eclipse Sammy Sosa's 160 from 2001. This RBI pace goes against the narrative for Suzuki. Don't let his occasional at-bats where he looks like he completely forgot how to play baseball affect your view of the big picture. He's a solid middle-of-the-order producer. Hitter #2: Dansby Swanson May Stats: .293/.360/.495, 6 HR, 18 R, 15 RBI, 3 steals, .855 OPS This is a rolling graph from FanGraphs displaying the streaky nature of the Cubs' sure-handed shortstop. We just exited one of the good streaks (3 for his last 23 with a 33% strikeout rate). It was always inevitable that he would slow down, but let's just appreciate the month he just had. That's the beauty of this lineup. Last season, there was a cluster of injuries and underperformance in May and June. This season, the Cubs have a sufficiently deep lineup to cover for slumps. And several Cubs did see a performance dip: Michael Busch: .892 OPS in April, .719 in May Carson Kelly: 1.347 OPS in April, .620 in May Kyle Tucker: .935 OPS in April, .882 in May Swanson's OPS was only .638 in April, but spiked to .855 last month. He helped cover for some guys whose production slipped, and carried the offense in some games. When coupled with the always-steady defense, Swanson was a tremendous asset in May. Winner: Pete Crow-Armstrong May Stats: .269/.296/.593, 9 HR, 20 R, 29 RBI, 5 SB, .888 OPS Stats aside, what Crow-Armstrong has done for Cub fans goes beyond baseball. He's the first Cub since Kris Bryant to generate this much national buzz. This one article places him as a future top-three player in the majors. Here's an article calling him MLB's next superstar. He's going in the top two rounds in fantasy drafts at this point. And I bought a Pete Crow-Armstrong shirt. The Cubs have a bona fide talent that is garnering attention nationally, and deservedly so. The numbers back it up: Pete Crow Armstrong is the MVP in the month of May, both for the Cubs and for the league as a whole. View full article

Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images Mike Piazza. Ivan Rodriguez. Johnny Bench. Carguel Kellaya. Apologies for the Harry Caray-esque name combination, but it seemed the most efficient way to capture the shared brilliance of Miguel Amaya and Carson Kelly. Those two have been, while not as significant as the Pete Crow-Armstrong breakout, one of the most significant carrying factors in the early season for Chicago. To grasp their impact, rewind to 2024. Cubs primary catchers last year (Amaya, Christian Bethancourt, Yan Gomes, Tomás Nido) totaled only 1.5 WAR, and Gomes and Nido were so bad they combined for -1.3. They had a .214 batting average, with 57 runs scored, 34 RBIs, and 14 home runs. That group's wRC+ (a holistic measure of offense in wbich 100 is average and higher is better) paints an even bleaker picture. The four backstops averaged approximately 53. This means they were 47% worse than average. Gomes was particularly damaging; he had an untenable 16 wRC+ in what looks likely to be his last gasp of big-league oxygen. The catching position in 2024 was an absolute black hole, a dead spot that was more damaging than any position group the Cubs fielded in 2024. Nowm let's fast forward to 2025, where the Cubs have essentially reincarnated Gabby Hartnett. Of course, they are splitting the playing time, and the counting stats won't look as impressive as one might think. Combine their production, though, and here are the full-season paces when you combine Amaya and Kelly. These are incredible numbers for the catching position. Runs: 116 Home Runs: 40 RBIs: 159 (put them together, and they're leading the league in ribbies, despite Amaya having a possible addition to the ledger thwarted Wednesday afternoon) .288 batting average 8.9 WAR 157 wRC+ This displays the discrepancy these numbers have, compared to their production at the position in 2024: Stat 2025 Cubs 2024 Cubs Runs 116 57 Home Runs 40 14 RBI 159 34 Batting Average .288 .214 WAR 8.9 1.5 wRC+ 157 53 This inspired a deep rabbit-hole dive of historical seasons from catchers who matched this level of offense. There have been some outstanding seasons, of course. If Kelly and Amaya can continue this, the Cubs' aggregate production would be at the level of these two: 1970 Johnny Bench: 97 R, 45 HR, 148 RBI, .293 AVG 1953 Roy Campanella: 125 RBIs, 41 HR, .312 AVG, 103 R Both of these Hall of Fame catchers won MVP awards in these seasons. The comparison isn't quite fair, since we're putting a composite of two players totaling 100% of the playing time up against two guys who had backup backstops and took some days off throughout the season, but it makes a fair point, right? This is elite catcher offense. Of course, it's not likely that they continue doing this. According to the fantasy baseball website Razzball, Kelly has already slowed down (.227/.320/.348 in the past 30 days), which was to be expected. Amaya is picking up the slack (.997 OPS in past 30 days), though, and his swing change success has carried over from August of 2024. But none of that matters, big picture. The Cubs have already received more production in late May than they received all last season at the position. Even with the expected regression to the mean, the catchers for 2025 are offensive assets, not holes in the lineup to patch over. This position has been instrumental to the current first-place iteration of the Cubs. Once a major weakness, the position has become one of the most significant reasons the Cubs sit atop the NL Central. View full article

Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images When you enter a middle school, one thing you instantly notice is the aggression—especially when you talk about the boys. Look one direction, you see guys playing bloody knuckles. Another direction, there's juveniles slapping the top of doorways like they're dunking. Turn around again, you might see ear flicking. Do you see what I mean? Aggression is par for the course in that world. Jed Hoyer probably was not that type of aggressive when in grades seven or eight. But as I wrote last season, he isn't risk-averse, either. In 2025, we're seeing him at his most aggressive, and it's been a fun ride so far. Perhaps you shouldn't click on that link. Some of the takes haven't aged well at all! Already this week, Moisés Ballesteros has made his big-league debut. This is but the latest in a season wherein the Cubs are fully invested, and the roster moves have reflected that. Hoyer truly is embracing his gunslinger side. When the roster moves are evaluated, it becomes clear how aggressive and responsive the Cubs are being. Nate Pearson was considered a possible staple in the bullpen entering the season. After eight appearances with an ERA over 10.00 and a 7.73 FIP, the plug was pulled. Jordan Wicks has not been heard from since a difficult two-inning stint in April. Luke Little had a wild inning, and is now buried again in Iowa. The depth in the bullpen that the Cubs built this offseason has paid off. There are options when injury or struggles strike. So far, Hoyer and Craig Counsell have given no quarter to noncompetitive relievers. When Shota Imanaga went down with an injury, the expectation was that Chris Flexen or Jordan Wicks would make his next start. Past history would show that the guys on the 40-man roster generally get first crack at the job. As we all know, this was not Gunslinger Jed's plan. Cade Horton came up to fill the 4-inning out-getter role instead. Quite aggressive—and also, just much more fun as a fan. When Ian Happ went down with an oblique strain, most expected Kevin Alcántara or Owen Caissie to receive a cameo. Instead, Ballesteros was rewarded for his scorching (.368/.420/.522) Iowa stats, even though more roster machinations needed to be performed. Once again, Caissie and Alcántara were on the 40-man roster; they were bypassed by the player who was performing better. Roster gymnastics were performed, and the most deserving bat is being given a chance. The quick demotion of Matt Shaw is also instructive about the Cubs' mindset. He was simply not producing competitive at-bats. In this season, the patience cannot be afforded to let anyone struggle at the big-league level. Everyone is on notice—even first-round picks without an obvious alternative to them on the roster. This is my favorite iteration of Hoyer: Cold, calculated, swift, and ruthless. This is the urgency and aggressiveness fans have pined for during the past three seasons of half-measures and soft resets. With the trade deadline two and a half months away and a full holster of prospects, we can expect an exciting summer both on the field and off of it. Why does this matter? Well, the division is behaving much less like everything is on the line, but they're still hanging around. The Brewers have made a trade already to shore up their own pitching shortcomings. They're struggling, but still in the mix. The Cardinals are playing well and sit only one game back of the Cubs. The Pirates, however, are still Paul Skenes and a bunch of meh, and the Reds continue to flounder. An aggressive approach would solidify the Cubs' spot as a playoff team. This window won't remain open for long. Everyone knows Kyle Tucker will hit free agency; he's by no means certain to return. Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, and Dansby Swanson all are over 30, and their primes will not last forever. And frankly, some of the prospects are losing their sheen. James Triantos has dropped off the MLB.com top prospects list, and we've already discussed Caissie and Alcántara. The time for this group is now. A favorite gag of middle school kids is the jumping out of the open window, leaving class. While this is largely a relic of the past, Jed Hoyer's window for the playoffs remains wide open. We can all hope he continues to be aggressive and jump through. View full article

Image courtesy of © Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images For my brother-in-law's wedding in historic New Bern, NC (where Pepsi was invented), we stayed in a bed-and-breakfast. The house was old, and there were creepy photos on the wall in which you would swear the eyes were following you. During the night, we heard a loud shout and what sounded like a group of people marching. My wife and daughter heard it as well, and we figured it was just local drunks. Until the next morning. We asked around, and nobody had heard it but us. People down the hall did not. People in the next house over did not. The owner, crickets. There is but one explanation. We were haunted by ghosts. Much like Cubs fans with bullpens, in the past. After the weekend series loss to the New York Mets, the ghosts of the Cubs' bullpen once again came to the fore. When even nominal closer Porter Hodge gives up three runs, the ghosts of bullpens past haunt Cubs fans. Memories of Joe Borowski, LaTroy Hawkins, Dave Smith, and Antonio Alfonseca have scarred fans for life. Some readers will remember even Tim Stoddard, Rich Bordi, and the mustachioed George Frazier. But how is it, really, right now? To compare the current Cubs to 2024's crew, check out the article I wrote on that debacle over the winter. But that was last year. For this year, the stats will tell a different story. Just looking at the National League, the Cubs rank 12th in these areas: ERA, WHIP, and walks per nine innings. They are 14th in bullpen strikeout rate, and 11th in wild pitches. In terms of season-long performance, the Cubs are the bottom team of contenders in the NL. We can confidently say the Cubs outpace the Nationals (7.13 bullpen ERA), Diamondbacks (5.02 ERA, missing both of their closers due to injury), and the Marlins (don't care about baseball), even by looking at the big picture. But fans may be missing the mark on the bullpen. When the Nate Pearson, Eli Morgan, and Luke Little types are removed, the picture is much rosier. The current members of the bullpen are providing a 3.76 ERA, which would place them seventh in the league, smack dab between the Dodgers and the Cardinals. But then, let's get really fun and take out the Ryan Pressly Disaster Inning. When those nine earned runs are deleted, the current members sport a 2.95 ERA, as of May 13. That's second-best in the National League. Not bad! Obviously, you can't just undo the loss that outing inflicted on the club, but it's telling that it makes such a large difference. The Giants, as we saw, have an elite bullpen. The current Cubs pen is second only to that group. For further comparisons, here is a list of ERA and WHIP for several other contenders: Dodgers: 3.67 ERA, 1.26 WHIP Brewers: 4.65 ERA, 1.34 WHIP Mets: 3.16 ERA, 1.18 WHIP The Cubs bullpen has been and will continue to be a flashpoint for fans of the Cubs—and any baseball team, honestly. Try Googling "struggling bullpens." I did so, and immediately, Google AI spit out a list of articles with 10 teams, all of which have bullpen issues. But the current iteration is very much alive. Don't let the ghosts of the past haunt how you view the current crop, because they've got some juice. View full article

Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-Imagn Images Sunday afternoon, Shota Imanaga exited his start with a hamstring injury that could sideline him for about a month. Coupling this with Justin Steele's season-ending elbow surgery, stress has entered Cubs fans' hearts. There is no sugarcoating the news. It's a bad thing for any team to lose their top two pitchers at any time. The Cubs, though, may have constructed a team that can withstand it. Here are the necessary components to survive and thrive as a team during this challenging time. Component 1: Matthew Boyd must stay on the mound. A quick Google search can show the opinion on Matthew Boyd's signing, and this author agreed with many of them in thinking it was not a stellar move. He's done nothing but prove people wrong. Boyd can pitch. Despite a BABIP (.324)-influenced WHIP of 1.35, he's been outperforming projections to this point. What Boyd really needs to do is stay healthy and keep making his starts until Imanaga returns. Durability has not been a strong suit for Boyd, averaging only eight starts per season since 2021. It would be a wonderful thing for the Cubs if Boyd could continue pitching—and a necessary one, to maintain their position atop the NL Central. He's already gaining attention nationally as a great under-the-radar signing. Component 2: Colin Rea must prove this isn't a fluke. Tuesday night's outing against the Giants was rough. Before it, though, Rea's ERA was a gaudy 1.46, and his FIP was 2.50. What Rea has done is put his outstanding defense to work and avoid hard contact. He's controlling the variables that he can control. Rea does have a higher fly-ball rate than average, but the quality of contact has not been high. He doesn't strike out as many hitters as one might hope, but he's a control artist, with a walk rate of 5.7% this season and a 6.0% clip last year with Milwaukee. While his numbers are due for a dip when the weather warms up, Rea does have a history of durability. He started 27 games in 2024 and 22 the year before, pitching in key moments for a division champion. If he can simply replicate his performance this season, it would go a long way to solidifying the Cubs rotation. Component Number 3: Ben Brown needs to pitch like his team scored 10 runs. When Brown is loose and confident, he's getting ahead of hitters on the first pitch. A loose and confident Brown can pitch against any lineup, as evidenced by scoreless outings against the Dodgers and Brewers. When his command is off, he has had non-competitive starts. Brown needs to trust his stuff and let it work. Component Number 4: Let's give Cade Horton a test run. It's already being reported and speculated and questioned and pontificated that Horton would get a weekend start and short runway. He's the arm in the system with the highest potential for success. Over 29 innings in Iowa, he has 33 strikeouts, a 0.86 WHIP, and 1.24 ERA. The 13 walks are a concern, but when you have only allowed 12 hits, they don't look quite so worrisome. Triple-A hitters have only put the ball in play on 11.3% of their swings; Cade is overwhelming them. He's also throwing 80 pitches per game. The only thing left for him is to learn how to do this in the major leagues. Oh, and the health. Most Cubs fans know about the wasted season in 2024, due to a shoulder issue. Given the numbers and the fact that his heater has touched 98 mph this spring, it's reasonable to assume that he's healthy now. The arm is needed, and the bullets do not need to be spent toiling in Iowa. Horton's health is solid at the moment; it's time to see what he can do. The worst-case scenario is a couple of poor starts and a return to Iowa to apply those lessons. Component Number 5: Keep mashing and fielding. When scoring five or more runs last season, the Cubs were 61-12. With this offensive output, the Cubs should be able to roll out any cromulent arm and contend. Couple that with the league's second-best defensive team by Defensive Runs Saved, and the Cubs have strong points. They should be able to maintain them, and support even a diminished pitching staff. The Cubs should be just fine if they can do these realistic things. Did I miss anything? Any "constructive criticism?" Put it in the comments! View full article