Can the Kyle Tucker Trade Be a Success If He Leaves This Winter?

This weekend's series loss to the Houston Astros brought up, again, the fascinating trade the Cubs made to nab Kyle Tucker back in December. Cam Smith  is batting cleanup for the first-place Astros in his first full professional season. His two home runs and general “gonna be a monster” vibes raise the question: Did the Cubs trade the wrong man? And if Tucker leaves, was this entire trade a bad idea?

There are a few factors to consider, if we want to answer those questions. Let's tackle them.

Factor 1: Kyle Tucker is a superstar.
Just look at this list, sorted by wRC+, of Cubs batting seasons in the past 30 years

Yes, at this point he clears every season from The Core, and only Sammy Sosa and Derrek Lee at their absolute best exceed his production. This is what an MVP candidate looks like.

Factor 2: Cam Smith is also very good, and under long-term team control.
Batting cleanup for a first-place team less than a calendar year after being drafted is quite the feat, even if batting cleanup doesn't mean quite what it used to and even if that team is in first place mainly because of their pitching. Smith tallied a .788 OPS in May and an .887 in June. For the season his wRC+ is 126, or 26% higher than the average player. Again, he is doing this after being drafted just last season. 

What a delightful, win-win trade. This one will be analyzed for years to come. However, there are two elephants in the room:

Elephant 1: Matt Shaw is struggling.
The rookie third baseman who made the Cubs so willing to give up both Isaac Paredes and Smith has done nothing well offensively at the major-league level, except put the ball in play a lot. The Astros love bat speed, and they were never going to accept Shaw instead of Smith. However, there might have been another structure the Cubs could have pursued, to hold onto Smith and replace him with multiple pieces or involve a third team.

To this point, it’s clear that Smith is the superior player and should have been the highest-rated Cub prospect this offseason. In fairness, some outlets had it that way, all along. The Cubs couldn't have simply chosen Smith over Shaw, without losing their chance to add Tucker, and Smith is not an MLB-capable third baseman. But then again...

Elephant 2: Kyle Tucker is unsigned past this season.
The Cubs did actively choose Tucker over Smith. They cashed in an elite asset and received one back. But if they don’t sign Tucker after this season, they'll have paid a hefty price for a lone shot at contention, when it turns out (sort of) that they could have done pretty well even by simply standing pat. 

We have to acknowledge that there's no guarantee Smith would be playing this well if he were still in the Cubs system, or on their big-league roster. In fact, he probably wouldn't be. The Cubs aren't as good at player development as the Astros are, which is a glaring problem—and maybe a bigger one than whether or not they balanced present and future well enough in this deal.

If Kyle Tucker walks, this trade could gnaw at Cubs fans for years. Some of that will just be in their heads, since again, Smith might not be this guy if he were still with the Cubs. Nonetheless, dealing a great prospect like Smith means the checkbook needs to be opened to keep Tucker around—if only for our collective mental health.