Hello Cubs World, 

It has been awhile since I last wrote. Quite a number of twists and turns to this season are worth covering...

But perhaps the most important thing is that the Cubs went "all in" on contending this year. Fans are used to feeling like Jed Hoyer is too cautious and cheap to do such a thing. But here we are... 

Let's rank the current starting rotation options in terms of stuff, to get an idea of what we're looking at in the coming postseason run. 

"Deserved ERA": The Fragile Duo 
The Rotation is not very good, if we rely on expected ERA (xERA), Stuff+, and WAR metrics. Many "expected" stats closely track each other in the rankings, meaning that it doesn't matter too much if you look at Stuff+, WAR, xERA, and so on. But for simplicity's sake, we can use Baseball Prospectus's "Deserved ERA"  to compare players. It attempts to translate overall ability metrics into a coherent expectation of outcome. While the Cy Young race is a who's-who list of starters with a great Deserved ERA, the majority of top 100 pitchers in such rankings are high leverage relievers who specialize in strikeouts. 

Quite frankly, the only two starting rotation Cubs who have had great seasons from this perspective are Clay Holmes and Ben Brown. They both have hovered around rank 70-80 among all pitchers in fundamental nastiness, which bolsters the argument their elite ERAs this year are for real. Holmes has a plus sinker and devastating sweeper, and Brown's knuckle curve remains one of the best pitches in baseball. But... they have both been fragile and missed lots of playing time. Its uncertain if they will be at their best when we need it the most. Yeah, I know, it's depressing: Cub simply don't invest in starters who carry cartoonish breaks and velocity.

Now, the real question: can we keep these two healthy enough for the critical starts? And, do they have the support they need?

The Relief Corps: Stronger In Fundamentals

It is worth noting that the back of the bullpen is better than you may think. Ryan Zeferjahn is a top relief option who outranks both Brown and Holmes in stuff metrics, and threatens to be even better than Holmes was as two-time Yankees all-star closer. Zeferjahn is about 100th percentile in strikeout rate and whiff rate - it doesn't get much nastier than that. Our own Jacob Webb is having a career-best season. Webb also is topping Holmes and Brown because of his out-getting 93rd percentile whiff rate, and 80th percentile strikeout rate. 

So, make a mental note: ZeferJahn (hovering around the top 30) and Webb (top 50) are among the best high-leverage options in baseball this year. And, behind them, you've got above average support. 102-fireballer Daniel Palencia is nearly as nasty as Zeferjahn, and working his way back by the end of this month. Hard thrower Trent Thorton, power lefty Ryan Rolison, and low-slot lefty specialist Hoby Milner are a trio of above average bullpen pieces with substantial "red paint" in MLB Savant statistics. So, this group of six can likely handle the post-season late-inning duties. (So long Caleb Theilbar, Tyler Ferguson, etc....).  

The #3 Platoon: The Splitter Starters

Gausman and Imanaga have been above average, but neither are having a great season compared to their career best. They both have shown flashes of brilliance, and are known for elite stretches of ball, but are effectively competing as marginal #3s for the 2026 post-season run. They both rank around 100-120 in terms of nastiness this year. Gausman relies on his splitter to get outs form the right side, and Imanaga does the same from the left. However, they both struggle with limited efficacy from their four seamers this year and yet still throw a lot of them. They also both suffer when their breaking balls are not touching the corner of the strike zone, and we need to be grateful that the momentum is in the right direction for their control. My best guess is that we see them used in tandem against specific teams in the playoffs: Imanaga 's 93rd percentile chase and walk rates are effective against the best lefty-powered lineups, and Gausman's respective 87th and 82nd percentile rates dominate against the strongest righty brigades. 

The Grinders: The Pitch to Contact Wizards

Cubs specialize in players who routinely outperform fundamentals, relying instead on pitching to ground ball contact and using the elite defense. All of these players lean on complex offerings and command to freeze and confuse hitters. They carry extremely low walk rates to minimize runs from smallball opportunities.  This "moneyball" approach to beating the odds makes Cubs starting pitching among the hardest squads to evaluate - over half of their guys excel in producing outstanding WHIP alongside ERA results a full fun or more ahead of expectation. 

In sum, the North Siders don't have the kinds of statistical freaks you'll find on the Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, or Brewers - however, you may be surprised to realize how good they have performed in ERA and WHIP.   

Topping list are a pair of veteran lefties, Matthew Boyd and David Peterson. Both of them were all stars last year, and both of them are looking red hot right now. However, neither of them have above average "red paint". Boyd's ability to control the bases and execute defensively is enough to consider him as a #3 guy, if anyone gets hurt or stumbles. Thus, he's a #4 who may get a chance to start in the early chase. Peterson is unlikely to earn a postseason start, but it's not impossible. The main knock is that his stuff is below average- he has all the elements of a classic back-order out-getter who steps back into the pen in the postseason. 
 

The next two guys have been the lifelines holding the season together but have horrible Savant pages. Assad has outperformed every metric in the book for years, and continues to do so, holding up a sub-3.6 ERA season. He's been elite at stranding runners on base his whole career, and he's maybe the best in the league at it in recent months. However, the Dodgers and Brewers cannot be so easily manipulated. Assad has an option remaining, and the most likely result is he is about to take his last trip to AAA until the roster expands. Rea is, well, the same sort of player but with 1 more run per nine innings. If anyone gets cut from the rotation, it's him - however, surrendering the club option on him for next year is quite a risk.

The Wildcard: What to do with Edward Cabrera?

I have strong feelings about this one. Cabrera has arguably the best changeup in the majors, and exceptional velocity on his four seamer and sinker; however, the combination of wildness and injury have been disappointing this year. He was excellent in April and May, and then completely fell apart. He has looked more like his early-season self during his last two rehab starts, but with such a crowded rotation, it seems like Cabrera is destined for the pen. I truly think he could be an elite bullpen piece if we are willing to accept that he never seems to be good past the fourth inning of a start. 

RANKING THE ROTATION OPTIONS

Note: if anyone is not healthy enough for an 80 pitch start, it's a simple matter of sliding everyone up one spot on the list.

#1 R Clay Holmes - Tone-Setting Nastiness 

Let's be frank: Holmes is the only veteran ace candidate on this squad. He'll probably be rusty his first couple of starts but settle back in soon. The Cubs are betting quite a lot on this guy, because he's the only one who has a full plate of nasty options.  Since his injury wasn't a throwing one, he is as fresh as anyone can be. I expect Holmes to be drawing elite ground ball rates with his sinker and therefore be the 1st man up in every series. We can easily manage his pitch count because of the huge number of starter-types on our roster.  Holmes is vulnerable against lefties, however, and he'd be pulled early if they are doing well. 

#2 R Ben Brown - Wipeout Knuckle Curve

Brown is not coming back until the September roster expansion. He is emerging as a future ace to compete with Cade Horton and Justin Steele at the top of the 2027 rotation (that's exciting stuff!). Although he may not ultimately start down the stretch - working back from two years of repetitive neck stress is serious - I think everyone wants him in the 2 slot. He'll probably be ready in time. Ideally, he just gets a few innings of pen work in September, but becomes a 80-pitch, 5-inning starter who turns the ball over to Boyd or Cabrera to finish up. His fastballs are great, but his knuckle curve is superhuman.  

#3 L Shota Imanaga - Lefty Splitter

Nobody wants to see him give up homers, but everyone loves it when he's working into the 7th inning and the only run given was a first inning solo shot. Frankly, he's still the best option we have against superstar lefty sluggers, as his splitter can remove those guys from the game. Expect to see Imanaga start against the primary National League threats: Dodgers, Brewers, Phillies, Marlins, and Braves. Imanaga has a slight upper hand statistically over Gausman in the early rounds of the postseason, simply because he's a tick better against lefty-vulnerable lineups. 

#4 R Kevin Gausman - Righty Splitter

He's virtually the righty Imanaga twin in statistical projections, as aforementioned, and can often pitch through the seventh - exactly what you want from Game 3 of a series, to give your bullpen breathing room for the critical game 4/5 showdowns.. He also handles lefties and righties equally, which is nice - he's holding both to a slightly below average OPS. I expect a red-hot Gausman to produce 9 more starts in regular season, and to start once or twice in the chase. In the National League, Gausman matches up well against the Padres and Diamondbacks, either of whom we may need to face. In general, Gausman also has the edge over Imanaga facing the top American League threats - especially the White Sox and Red Sox. So, Gausman is the most likely 3rd guy in the World Series. 

Long Relievers in the Postseason

#5 L Matthew Boyd - Gold Glove Game Manager

This is the guy most affected by the arrival of Holmes and Gausman - so, he's now your most trusted "next guy up" in the postseason. Righties have been hitting him well this year, but he can completely shut down a left-handed side. Although he may be critical in September, his stuff this year cannot compete with the four guys above. I am happy to see his caliber of player as the long relief for Holmes or Brown. There is still a sizable chance he outperforms Imanaga or Gausman over the next 10 games and earns the ball...  

#6 R Edward Cabrera - Freakish Hard Change

He's not reliable for a postseason start. Still, when he's hot, he's unhittable. Just like Boyd, I'd love to see him finish out game one or two of every series with a multi-inning relief showing. He can beat any lineup if he only has to face it once. 

#7 R Javier Assad - Endless Bag of Tricks

His voodoo is a good luck charm. He's been dominant for the last two months. After all we've been through with this guy, there's no way he gets cut. He'll be the next middle-inning reliever behind Boyd and Cabrera. He's outperforming Rea just enough to win a long relief spot in the pen. I want to see Assad as the rescue relief for the splitter duo, Imanaga and Gausman. 

Cut Candidates - "There Can Be Only One!"

# 8 L David Peterson - Old School Junk Lefty 

When Brown comes back, it's very possible Peterson gets cut, but only if there's a 7th short inning guy who emerges as essential. Its far more likely he edges out Rea as the remaining "insurance arm". There's just not a lot of room in a 14-man group. Similar to Boyd, Peterson is doing much better against lefties than righties this year. But when it comes to stuff, he's the worst guy on the roster - the classic "get you there" junk arm. it's still possible he replaces Milner or Rolison in the pen, if either befalls injury or missteps in the next few weeks. Peterson's last few starts have still shown an upside higher than Assad or Rea because the league is generally doing worse creating contact against lefty starters this year. 

#9 R Colin Rea - Old Reliable Dog

As a 36-year old righty with neither the fundamentals nor the results to scare anyone, it's a really good time to play some pick-up basketball and twist an ankle, to hold onto his roster sport for next season. I was quite surprised to see him escape trade negotiations, unless nobody truly wanted him. This is the odd-man-out. Thanks for all the good times!

RANKING THE SHORT RELIEVERS

The high leverage crew

# 1 R Jacob Webb - Closer

Webb has been a real surprise. He came in as a cheap middle-relief option and found his way to the closer role. You don't want to upset the vibe that Webb has established. Stay with him. He's perhaps not a top 10 closer, but he's just slightly behind that level right now. 

# 2 R Daniel Palencia - Setup/Closer

Even with time missed, Palencia has the stuff everyone fears to face. He will patrol the 8th, and very likely the 10th-11th innings. 

# 3 L Ryan Rolison - Setup

A surprise weapon for the Cubs, Rolison is the high leverage lefty in the 8th and beyond. He's been astoundingly reliable. 

# 4 R Ryan Zeferjahn - Fixer

I like him as the righty "fixer" who can shut down the top of the order with strikeouts. He sometimes falters, but his fundamentals for throwing right past an Ohtani or Judge are all-world level. he's the guy I want taking the ball against the top of, say, the Dodgers order at a critical moment. 

The low leverage boys

 # 5 L Hoby Milner - Lefty-Only Fixer

He's the lefty "fixer" who has the ideal style to generate ground outs during critical jams in the 5th through 7th, if he's facing mostly lefty bats. As usual, he's a 3-4 batter guy, though, and despite being elite against southpaws, is a threat to give up a critical run against ANY righty bat. 

# 6 R Trent Thorton - Hold the Lead

Although he has shown great stuff, and helped win big games, his stock is falling in recent weeks due to control issues. Still, he's a luxury for low leverage. 

Conclusion

How good is this group? Everything depends on Holmes, Brown, Palencia, and Zeferjahn stepping up. 

If they do, it is an outstanding pen ready for a World Series. If they falter, there's plan B and C options, but nobody wants to depend heavily on the Cubs defense to solve every problem. 

If 3 out of those four guys do their best, and if Imanaga and Gausman hold up, this is a potential winner. 

If not, we should be even BETTER in 2027 folks.