Brian Kelder

If you missed it, MLB released a 62-page document on pitching and injuries. Are there any real solutions in there? Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images It's all very interesting, and you can read all about the findings from Jeff Passan, David Adler of MLB.com, and basically any website that covers baseball at all. They have done a great job of explaining it, but what has this done to affect the Cubs and their offseason planning? The Cubs have been questioned for their signing of injury-prone southpaw Matthew Boyd and their trade talks for oft-injured Jesus Luzardo. The consensus is that the team needs a reliable, 32-start innings-eater. With Justin Steele's five IL stints in the past three years, Cade Horton a complete wild card at this point, Jordan Wicks missing significant time, and Javier Assad's forearm issues last year, the Cubs should be looking for stability, right? Well, according to these reports, that level of stability doesn't exist. Injuries are on the rise. We are just beginning to understand trends and possible causes. This will seek to examine how the Cubs have been affected by these causes, and what they've done to build a team to address them. 1. Velocity and Spin Rate In 2019, the Cubs promoted a pitch lab, to moderate success. I won't pretend to know much about pronators and spin. I do know that maximum-effort throwing is harder on the arm than less-than-maximum. Anyone who's thrown a baseball and tried to do a curveball can understand the added stress involved in creating and manipulating spin. The Cubs' relief unit was beset by injuries last season. Daniel Palencia is the perfect example. He's a maximum-effort guy, chasing velocity. He can't control the pitches at that level of effort, and hasn't been healthy. Luke Little and José Cuas, too, often felt like throwers, not pitchers. They also were injured and ineffective. The Cubs version of chasing velocity and spin has not reaped the rewards. Even if you consider Justin Steele an ace, he has not been healthy and effective at the end of seasons, when he's needed most. To counter this, they have stockpiled arms. No fewer than 10 guys are rotation options for the Cubs in 2025. Of course, it would be better to try to keep your arms healthy, instead of just working around the issue. One thing the Cubs rotation has been criticized for is their lack of velocity and wipeout stuff in the starting rotation; I would argue this is a feature, not a bug. Jameson Taillon, in particular, has overcome his "oft-injured" label and been a reliable arm for the Cubs. With the elite defense the Cubs will field next season, pitching to weak contact is a good idea. There's less need for this particular team to have wipeout stuff in the rotation. 2. Minors Not Preparing Starters to Go Over Five Innings The Iowa Cubs are not asking their starters to go over five innings. Organizationally, they have bought into the model of going all-out for as long as possible, then switch to a reliever who does the same, and churn through fungible arms. Cade Horton and Brandon Birdsell will be interesting test cases on this strategy and pitcher health. Brandon Birdsell has a Tommy John scar already. He had his in 10th grade, which caused him to spend his high-school years rehabilitating his arm. He then spent some time as a Division I reliever, before his rotator cuff caused him to miss more time. He was healthy his last year in college and won the Big 12 Pitcher of the Year. Here is a link to his scouting report around the time he was drafted. Big stuff, but also came at a cost to health. Cade Horton is known as a Bad Man, but also comes with concerns. There is zero track record of sustained, healthy success. When he's been healthy (notably in his junior year of college and in 2023(, his stuff has been filthy. The question is, would it remain as filthy if he weren't pitching with maximum effort? Current results would suggest not. Birdsell and Horton seem to be subscribing to this pitching philosophy. They would rather go all-out, risking injury but also elevating their pure stuff, to achieve their MLB dreams. Given their injury histories, a trajectory like that of Garrett Crochet seems to be the best-case scenario: Often injured, but with a breakout season at some point tempered by the constant shadow of injury. Keeping pitchers like Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks and the recently jettisoned Drew Smyly around will be important if the Cubs continue to develop their arms to pitch just five-ish innings per start. The stress on a bullpen (guys who are also throwing for max spin and velocity) means the Cubs' trades for guys like Cody Poteet will be more important than people expect. The Cubs are not at the forefront of preventing injuries. It seems like they have decided that injuries are inevitable, and are stockpiling depth with no regard for injury history. Matthew Boyd was not signed for 30 starts; the Cubs will be happy with 15. Justin Steele will be happy with 25 starts. It's a new era in baseball, and the Cubs (albeit later than some others) have fully bought in. From a fan's perspective, it would be nice if the Cubs could try to prevent these injuries, instead of accepting them as the cost of doing business. However, with the current model-based scouting prevailing league-wide, we will be looking more at spin, velocity, tunneling, and sheer stuff than ever before. Maybe they can stockpile enough arms, and at some point they will have a healthy enough group to do something special. Until then, we will continue to read the injury reports to see what's next for the pitching staff. The only good news in the study is the reassurance that the rest of the league's fans are doing the same thing. View full article

While the main thrust of the Cubs' latest deal was financial, they wouldn't have done it without getting an arm in which they can invest at least a bit of hope for 2025 contributions. What will they get from their new oft-injured swingman? Image courtesy of © David Richard-Imagn Images Cody Poteet debuted with the Miami Marlins in 2021 as a starting pitcher. Fantasy players may remember debating the "realness" of this debut. His first start went five innings, allowing two earned runs. His next two starts were even more tantalizing, totaling 12 scoreless innings between them. His fourth outing was less effective (five earned runs in four innings), however, and he didn't pitch into the fourth inning in any of his remaining appearances. We can all lament the wasted FAAB from that summer in 2021. (No? Just me. Ok, fine.) Poteet rode the minors shuttle in 2022, amassing 29 innings in that season in the conditioned air in Miami, until his elbow blew out and he underwent Tommy John surgery. The entire 2023 campaign was a washout, and a triceps strain sidelined him for much of 2024. Four starts were all he could manage last season as a Yankee, after 13 in the minors. The results were solid for the Yankees; his 2.22 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in a small sample do catch the eye. With a 5.01 expected ERA, though, there are also reasons to temper any optimism. Lance Brozdowski wrote a better scouting report than I could, so you should definitely read the linked article. Statcast also has some interesting data. He has a 93-mile-per-hour fastball, slightly below league average for velocity. He throws the whole kitchen sink at hitters, though, with a sinker, changeup, curveball and sweeper to complete the set. Though he's not likely to assert himself as Plan A anywhere, Poteet will be able to provide depth in the rotation and in the middle innings of the bullpen. There's absolutely nothing wrong with acquiring a pitcher like Cody Poteet. He will pitch some valuable innings for the Cubs this year, and presumably, they have at least one or two tips in mind to help him improve. This isn't the frontline starter the fan base wants, but it was never supposed to be. This move just sets the stage for that one. Poteet will likely start in Iowa as rotation depth. Javier Assad will get the first crack at the rotation, or possibly Jordan Wicks, but if either is injured or falters, Poteet will be ready to answer the bell at a higher-than-replacement level. Of course, we don't live in a vacuum, and there's added money that is available to the Cubs now as a result. Don't think of the deal as Cody Bellinger for Cody Poteet. It's more Bellinger for Poteet and $20 million extra to spend. The final grade for this trade will come after some more offseason time for Jed Hoyer to work his job-saving magic. View full article

The Cubs are frugal. Tom Ricketts is cheap. The Cubs will never have a generational player. All of these are popular takes online and on talk radio. They don't hold merit. The Cubs do spend. They just have a spread the wealth strategy. They like sensible contracts instead of the splurge. (Don’t stop reading! I’ll get to Kyle Tucker!) Image courtesy of © Brad Penner-Imagn Images First, the Cubs have spent recently. Check this list if you want to compare. From 2015 to today, the Cubs have ranked 13-14-8-4-2-6-10-15-12-9. They have spent in the past to sustain a winner, just not at the level of the Mets, Dodgers, Yankees, or even Red Sox. Cheap and frugal don't describe a team always in the top half of spending. If you want to argue market size and expectations, that's a fair critique. Another solid argument is if the Cubs will ever play at the top of the mountain and acquire the next Wrigley Field Hero. Looking at the free agent landscape from 2022 on is instructive. Since 2020, the top ten largest contracts in baseball have been signed. Currently, the Cubs have gutted their salary by $40-50 million. The Yu Darvish dump was step one. Kyle Schwarber departed, and the guys who won the World Series were dealt at the deadline. The Cubs would not want to sign a major free agent or entice someone who plans to win in their first season with the club. While all this was happening, many free-agent contracts were signed for over $200 million. Just this offseason, Max Fried signed a $218 million deal with the New York Yankees. The first question is, were the Cubs even players for any of these contracts? In the top ten, only Shohei Ohtani was pursued by the Cubs at the time of his free agency. They did sit every other one of these free agencies out, although the coffers did open a bit after 2021. Let's look at the top free agents, starting with 2023. 2023: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: not a finalist Blake Snell: not pursued Cody Bellinger: signed to a player-friendly contract by Chicago Aaron Nola: There is no chance he left Philadelphia Josh Hader: did not pursue Matt Chapman: LOL, Christopher Morel! 2022: Aaron Judge: not a contender for him Jacob deGrom: not a contender Trea Turner: not a contender Carlos Correa: Did offer a large contract Xander Bogaerts: Did offer a large contract Dansby Swanson: Signed by Cubs to a large contract, but less than Correa and Bogaerts Carlos Rodon: Not a Cub consideration 2021: Carlos Correa: Not this time Corey Seager/Marcus Semien: Rangers combo, not involved Kris Bryant: ... Max Scherzer: Not interested So the takeaway is that the Cubs will spend on the right target, correct? Well, not so fast. Juan Soto and the aforementioned Yamamoto beg to differ. The Cubs obviously would love to have these guys on their team. They just don't see the risk of a long, heavy-money deal as worth the downside. Instead of these talented players on admittedly risky contracts, the Cubs want to invest in several players one tier below this, spending around $15-20 million per year for them. Marcus Stroman and Seiya Suzuki were signed, Ian Happ extended, Nico Hoerner extended, Jameson Taillon signed, and Shota Imanaga signed. All of these guys have their merits but will not engender excitement by themselves. This strategy has benefits. The Cubs are not locked into an albatross contract, even if Dansby Swanson has been mildly underwhelming. The team has maintained flexibility for the future, and despite current attempts to dump Cody Bellinger, it does not need to trade players to save money. The downside is the lack of star power this allows you to obtain. With the ever-increasing cost of a game, a $20-per-month tab to stream Marquee, and the $30 beer bats. As a Cub fan in a long-distance relationship with the team living in North Carolina, it sure would entice me to have a Bryce Harper, or even a long-term Cub like Kyle Schwarber, to watch at the plate. The non-pursuit of Juan Soto simply adds salt to that wound. This strategy can, of course, lead to success. The Kansas City Royals won a World Series in 2015 utilizing this model. However, history shows you need a Hall of Fame bat in the lineup, or at least someone with an MVP-caliber season. For example: 2024 Dodgers; Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman 2023 Rangers: Corey Seager MVP-level season 2022 Astros: Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker (more on him later), Yordan Alvarez 2021 Braves: Freddie Freeman 2019 Nationals: Juan Soto 2018 Red Sox: Mookie Betts 2010s era Giants: Buster Posey Going back further, the Yankees had Derek Jeter, Mickey Mantle, Lou Gehrig, and many others; the Cardinals Albert Pujols; the Red Sox had multiple seasons of David Ortiz; the Oakland A's Rickey Henderson, the Twins Kirby Puckett; the Orioles Cal Ripken Jr, and the Pirates Roberto Clemente and Willie Stargell. The Cubs are trying to replicate the 2005 White Sox, 1988 Dodgers, and the Royals from 2015. These did work but were not a blueprint for the sustained success Jed Hoyer has preached over the past four seasons. The 1989 Dodgers, for example, won only 74 games. The 2006 White Sox finished in third place in their division. The Royals in 2016 were a .500 team. Hoping your team over-performs projections for multiple seasons is not how a team with long-term winning designs should operate. Lightning can strike, as these examples above show. However, sustainability is in question. Players' performance varies from season to season, and without the Aaron Judge-level bat, negative regression can sink teams from season to season. Long-term Cub fans know all about one-hit wonders. 1984, 1989, 1998, 2003, and 2008 were all fun, but we all remember the years after. You do need to win in one season before winning in multiple. Years of being a Cub fan have destroyed confidence that building a Dodgers or Yankees level of success with this approach is fruitless. This is not a Ricketts issue. Sources tell me Tom gives the front office free rein to spend money however they choose within a given budget. This can be for long-term or short-term deals. He could have done so if Jed Hoyer had sought to sign Juan Soto or even Max Fried. If Kyle Tucker is acquired, Jed would be allowed to extend him within the budget. It's as simple as that. Jed Hoyer will not extend contracts to the heavy players in free agency unless there's some sort of carrot for him to nibble on in return. Cody Bellinger, for example, signed a large deal. Based on rumors that the team was trying to offload the salary, they expected it to be a one-year deal and were not pleased with the results. Dansby Swanson was the Cubs' version of getting uncomfortable, and team results probably have not emboldened Jed Hoyer to follow the same path. The thing is, the Cubs do spend. Fans of the Pirates have been clamoring for years to have the payroll level the Cubs do. The Marlins have been in a low-budget rebuild for over a decade. Even the crosstown White Sox just traded their potential ace for prospects. The Cubs will spend to a certain level. Jed Hoyer hopes to build an entire roster without holes. This is shown in the recently concluded winter meetings. There is a solid player at every position; after adding Matthew Boyd, the roster sports nine rotation candidates. In the case of Swanson and Bellinger, he has spent big on a roster built to win with depth. Hoyer has counted on his prospects to find the great player that so far has eluded him. The current farm system is the most Hoyer-esque thing. According to FanGraphs, He has many solid prospects but none with over a 50 future value. None project to be over an average regular, meaning no project to be upgraded over the current roster. It's always risky to count on young players breaking out, and it doesn't seem like this group will follow the path that led to 2016. Note: this article was written to this point before the Kyle Tucker deal. The rest is after. Kyle Tucker, of course, was acquired and fits right into this salary structure. He’ll make just shy of $17 million in the last year before free agency. The Cubs can change this entire narrative if they extend their first star player since Anthony Rizzo. The Cubs spend, but not long term, and for high dollars. I’m holding off on the Tucker jersey purchase; he might be gone next season. It looks like a shirsey is appropriate for the Cubs' spending trend. View full article

Agreed on the rest of the division. It's really a tribute to the Brewers and how well they've been run that they continue to be in first place

With the Mets taking steps forward, the Super Team Dodgers getting more super by the week, Atlanta poised for a healthier, more dangerous 2025, and the Phillies being the Phillies, the NL Central seems to be the crown the Cubs are most likely to claim. Of course, the Cubs aren't the only team in the division looking to improve. Here's a roundup of moves and rumors for each team in that group this winter. Image courtesy of © Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images Cincinnati Reds The Reds have cast a wide net this offseason, looking to improve on their disappointing 2024. They're big-game hunting in the rotation and in the outfield. Like the Cubs, they lost out on Garrett Crochet, who landed with the Red Sox, but they might call the White Sox right back and try to secure the services of should-be star center fielder Luis Robert, Jr. They also may travel up I-71 to talk to the Guardians about Josh Naylor. With Terry Francona newly installed in the dugout, they have bigger ambitions than they typically do this winter. The Reds infield has a lot of names, but not a lot of stability. Elly De La Cruz is the headliner, and Matt McLain is ready for a mulligan on a first full season in the majors that wasn't, due to injuries. The corner spots are much less certain, with the likes of Noelvi Marte (suspension, then inconsistency), Christian Encarnacion-Strand (injury) and Jeimer Candelario (well, we know) providing vague cause for hope but not much confidence. Naylor makes perfect sense if the Guardians decide to roll with Kyle Manzardo at first base. Lane Thomas, also of Cleveland, is another rumored target to round out the outfield mix. The Reds are definitely looking to improve their lineup. The team has already acquired Brady Singer via trade with the Royals to help fill the rotation. Nick Martinez stuck around by accepting a qualifying offer, and Nick Pivetta has emerged as a possible target this offseason. However it shakes out, the Reds are looking to improve quickly, and they're being aggressive. Milwaukee Brewers Willy Adames will torture the Cubs from San Francisco, instead of Milwaukee. Devin Williams is on the trading block. At some point, this talent drain will catch up to them, right? For the Brewers' rotation, Brandon Woodruff is planning to return, but with shoulder capsular injuries, this should be taken with a grain of salt. They, too, were players for Crochet, indicating the extent to which they view the rotation as an area of need. If Woodruff is something close to his former self, though, that group comes together nicely in a hurry. The Brewers outfield is in good hands. They are looking for another infielder, though, to replace Adames. Joey Ortiz and Brice Turang will start, but there is no obvious candidate in the system to come up. They've been linked to Ha-Seong Kim in free agency, but the more likely route for them is using a trade of Williams to fill third base and sliding Ortiz to short. Pittsburgh Pirates It turns out that the rumored deal between the Bucs and Anthony Rizzo was only that. Debunking this was easy, after the Pirates acquired Spencer Horwitz to play first base. He will be a nice upgrade for them at first in his own right, though. The rest of their offseason has been minor-league pitching reinforcement. Tanner Rainey is probably the most well-known, and they followed that by signing Hunter Stratton. Yes, after reading this, it's a bit underwhelming. Pirates fans surely will hope they won't waste their elite front of the rotation with an inactive offseason. Recent rumors of listening to Mitch Keller offers are somewhat confusing, unless they're hoping to be offered an offensive difference-maker in exchange for the mid-rotation righty. Their last postseason appearance in 2015 feels so, so long ago; they need to find some further reinforcement. St. Louis Cardinals They're tearing it down! (Kind of.) The Cardinals, for the first time since the early 1990s, are selling veterans and going with the youth. (Kind of.) Paul Goldschmidt? Gone, plenty of suitors but halfway washed-up anyway. Nolan Arenado? Willing to waive his no-trade clause for six specific teams, most of them in southern California. Sonny Gray, Willson Conteras? Well, they'd had a lot of trade value, unlike Arenado, but no, they say they want to stick around, and they both have no-trade clauses, too. Ryan Helsley, a star closer in a walk year? No, they're planning to hold onto him for now, too. Times are changing in St. Louis. (Kind of.) They aren't expected to be major players in acquisitions. This will be a year where their youngsters like Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker, and Alec Burleson will be given long leashes and opportunities to succeed or fail. Cubs fans will certainly hope for more of the latter. Don't expect the Cardinals to make headlines with the players whom they acquire. Instead, look for them to make waves in the younger talent realm. At first glance, the NL Central looks to be ripe for the taking. The Cubs should be aggressive in adding to their squad, in an all-out attempt to take the division hostage and not write a ransom note. They shouldn't rest on their laurels, especially since they really don't have any. View full article

Jed Hoyer has stated that he got the bullpen wrong in 2024. Yes, Jed, you probably did! Along with the offense, the bullpen was simply awful in May and June. So what happened here? And how does fixing it go? Image courtesy of © Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images Statistially, the Cubs did not have a good relief corps. Baseball Reference ranked them 22nd in their Wins Above Average metric, but that shouldn't be a team killer. Just below them on the list was the Los Angeles Dodgers, and the Baltimore Orioles were 24th, so clearly this can be overcome. Looking at traditional stats, the Cubs were 10th in bullpen ERA at 3.78; 15th in WHIP at 1.25; and 13th in batting average against and home runs allowed. By FanGraphs WAR, the bullpen ranked 20th in MLB. Alright, Jed, I hear you. The bullpen was an issue. But why couldn't it be overcome? The answer can be found by looking at three key relievers—Adbert Alzolay, Hector Neris, and Hayden Wesneski—in April, May and June. These three relievers totaled 11 blown saves, all of which led to losses. The Cubs missed the playoffs by less than this, but assuming all closers blow saves occasionally, let's merely guess that six of these were wins and five remained losses. That would put the Cubs at 89-73 for the season, firmly in the hunt for October. If you assume April losses to San Diego and Arizona flip to wins, the Cubs finish one game out of the chase. (Yes, this is a flawed idea.) Flip all of these to wins and the Cubs are on the verge of winning the division. In June, Wesneski was named, sarcastically, pitcher of the month by this website. Here's what was written at the time: Sheesh, whoever wrote that was in a terrible mood! So what went wrong, planning-wise, for this group? The Holdovers: Alzolay, Mark Leiter, Jr., and Julian Merryweather were great in 2023. They also have extensive injury histories. That 2023 campaign was actually the healthiest any of them had had in their careers. In 2024, it all crashed down around them, both health- and performance-wise. Relying on last year's breakouts in the bullpen can severely backfire (remember this later). Injuries: Bullpen arms do get hurt, but the cluster bomb of injuries that hit the lineup struck the bullpen at the same time. Ben Brown, Yency Almonte, Leiter, Alzolay, and Merryweather all went down in May and June. When you couple this with the cluster of injuries in the linked article from the lineup, really, it would take an Atlanta-level roster to weather those storms. Hoyer deserves much of the blame for the way the bullpen was constructed. It doesn't take a baseball wizard to conjure up a theory that injury-prone pitchers could possibly become injured again, and the entire back end of the bullpen falls into that bucket. Injuries happen to all teams; counting on continued health from pitchers who have not demonstrated that ability was always a fool's errand. The bullpen really was a major issue, but probably not bad enough to derail the Cubs' playoff hopes on its own. Hoyer needs to take steps to make sure they don't have a third consecutive season of trying to figure things out. Tyson Miller, Jorge López, and Nate Pearson were great for the final stretch in 2024 and might be counted on to reprise their roles. Their Statcast profiles show they'll probably be a mixed bag in 2025. Miller overperformed his metrics last year. He would be more expected to have an ERA in the mid-3s, with elite control numbers. He can still be valuable, but we are talking about a guy with half a season of success at the MLB level at age 28. The Cubs were right to bring him back, but there is risk here. López has a longer track record of success and is a better bet to maintain his production. His performance didn't have an outlier quality, and if you look at the link he was very good at using offspeed pitches to limit hard contact. He might not repeat a 2.03 ERA with the Cubs, but he could be a mainstay. He's a free agent, but the relationship between him and Craig Counsell should facilitate an on-the-cheap reunion if the team wants one. Pearson had a rapid turnaround with Chicago after failing to turn his top-10 prospect pedigree into real production for Toronto. He does hit 100 on the radar gun. Maybe Hoyer has picked up a Jeff Hoffman-type reliever, without paying the premium Hoffman will cost as a free agent. We should not expect all three of these guys to perform well this upcoming season, though. Variance and injuries hit all bullpens at some time. Hoyer would be wise to remember Leiter, Merryweather, and Alzolay when considering his bullpen. It would be overly pessimistic to assume all three would fail, but it would be too optimistic to assume all three repeat their brief success. Maybe re-signing López isn't such a good idea after all. Eli Morgan is a step to address the depth of the bullpen, and was acquired at minimal cost. Brown is expected to have a normal offseason, and maybe Cade Horton can contribute at some point next summer. The plan for the bullpen needs to account for variance much more effectively, though, if the Cubs are to avoid another May/June disaster. Signing a higher-dollar reliever like Clay Holmes or Hoffman would be a wise use of funds to reduce variance. Don't plan on the Cubs taking this route, despite evidence the past two seasons that it can be useful. After researching for too many work hours, the conclusion is that the Cubs hit a two-month stretch of offensive injuries and high-leverage bullpen failures. They were eight games under .500 when the calendar flipped to July. This date coincided with the lineup getting healthy and the bullpen solidifying. If Hoyer can avoid the bullpen regression monster and the injury luck is spread out, the Cubs are a few good moves from being truly relevant. View full article

This intro is going to be a little more personal. I know, it's not great writing to use the word "I." I apologize to Mr. Stanky (his real name), my English 2 teacher back in 1995. But this writer grew up a Cubs fan, has been a Cubs fan, and yet has been a terrible fan lately. I have fallen into the morass of hating and doubting everything on the North Side. Image courtesy of © Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images This affected my opinions for this past season. Some of the narratives around have been about the team's lack of star power and the lack of talent. Another one is that August didn't really matter, because it was garbage time. As something of an analyst, instead of seeing these narratives and rolling with them, I decided to go back and see what really happened in 2024, and what can be done to fix it in 2025. Narrative Number 1: The Offense was built to fail August was a superb month for the Cubs. An 18-8 record, season high team OPS of .792, and 37 home runs (9 more than any other month) led to a surge in the standings. When you look at the other months, though, it was not as much fun. 2 Cubs April 17-10 .630 27 17 10 894 135 214 38 7 28 126 92 11 237 9 7 1,009 350 73 2 10 3 15 .239 .315 .391 .706 3 Cubs May 10-18 .357 28 10 18 928 99 201 38 3 26 93 96 17 249 27 4 1,052 323 67 2 9 3 12 .217 .299 .348 .647 4 Cubs June 11-16 .407 27 11 16 887 99 203 36 4 26 92 96 17 252 36 5 1,005 325 66 4 1 2 17 .229 .316 .366 .682 5 Cubs July 13-12 .520 25 13 12 858 110 216 53 2 26 107 66 8 200 18 3 941 351 81 3 6 2 9 .252 .309 .409 .718 6 Cubs August 18-8 .692 26 18 8 891 155 232 52 7 37 147 91 9 200 36 5 1,001 409 96 3 7 5 8 .260 .333 .459 .792 7 Cubs September 13-13 .500 26 13 13 882 124 229 31 5 25 118 89 6 202 17 6 987 345 61 3 7 2 23 .260 .329 .391 .720 As you can see, the team cratered offensively in May and June. Why did a team with the same veteran players perform so much differently? Just look at the IL: Cody Bellinger: ribs Seiya Suzuki: slow month returning from oblique Nico Hoerner: hit in hand in June, did not miss time but .135 OPS difference from first half to second Dansby Swanson: played through a knee injury, obviously affected at the plate. Christopher Morel: batting cleanup despite below hitting .200 for May and June Catcher Position: vortex of doom, black hole sucking our hopes and dreams That's six positions in the lineup at the same time either injured, recovering from injury, or lying to training staff members about their knee, and all of them slumping at the same time. Replacements included the rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong, Miles Mastrobuoni, and Patrick Wisdom, none of whom impacted the team positively on offense. There are very few teams that can withstand six key players injured over the same time period, unless you happen to employ Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts or something. The Cubs were designed to have a team full of net positives in their lineup; this type of sequencing with injuries was not able to be withstood. When you factor in a lack of quality depth on the bench, the offense sputtered. Narrative 2: The Cubs surged in garbage time baseball. So what happened in August? Well, a few things happened, also simultaneously. Crow-Armstrong and Miguel Amaya had great months, lengthening the lineup to a full nine solid hitters. PCA, especially, played at a star level (.933 OPS, four home runs) and in fantasy baseball circles garnered top-40 draft pick buzz. Amaya was no slouch, either. His .924 OPS was a welcome boon in the nine spot in the lineup. Both of these players have the prospect pedigree to support this being part of a breakout, and the performance for a month was legitimate (even if Amaya scuffled in September.) Health: All of the aforementioned bats were healthy and producing in the month of August. Really not much analysis needed here, either. The good players on the team were all playing and performing well at the same time. Swanson, Hoerner, and Suzuki were especially effective when compared to their May/June numbers. Third base was such a damaging position, and Craig Counsell did the lineup no favors by sticking with Christopher Morel in the cleanup spot for so long. Isaac Paredes was no superstar when he came over, but he did bring one much needed addition. Paredes was the league leader in pitches per plate appearance with 4.45. This elite plate approach, while it didn't result in counting numbers, did help the lineup more than Morel's elite expected stats that never materialized. Competition: It was a pet theory of mine that the competition in August was subpar. If you take the Cleveland Guardians out of the equation, the teams the Cubs played in August had a 44% winning percentage between them. The Guardians were removed because the Cubs were swept by them, leaving their record against the rest at 18-5. Players play hard on every team, every game, but not all players and teams were created equally. Weird things like the Pirates leaving Domingo Germán in to give up eight runs in two innings, or the White Sox's entire schedule, just happen. It's not disingenuous to say that they performed better against not so good teams. The Cubs are not a great offense but are flush with good players. The problem with the offense wasn't the starters. It was the lack of quality depth to replace them when they were injured. Perhaps Swanson wouldn't have lied for weeks about his knee if an adequate replacement was in the wings. Maybe Morel could have been dropped to a less stressful spot in the order. Six spots in the lineup not producing certainly affected things. Of course, they were unable to sustain this elite offense into September. The batting average and on-base percentage stayed the same, but slugging declined due to 19 fewer doubles and 12 fewer home runs. Most notably, PCA declined from a 154 WRC+ to 92 in September, and Miguel Amaya from 157 to 61, according to FanGraphs. Conclusions The Cubs are not as bad as they were in May and in June on offense. They simply had a rash of injuries, without adequate replacements. Compounding this was players trying to grit things out, to little success. They got healthy, and the performance improved. Baseball can sometimes have simple explanations. Going forward, the hope is that these injuries (that always happen) won't be in a glob of the calendar and put the team in a massive hole. They of course could add to the existing offense, and maybe the rumored Cody Bellinger trades could result in added funds and fun at the bat. It would behoove Tom Ricketts to extend his arms into his deep pockets a bit. Who knows, it could earn some of that tax money back in revenue! It seems as if the Cubs' offensive story was a solid beginning, followed by a terrible stretch fueled by injuries and subpar replacements, followed by a torrid yet unsustainable stretch, and then a gentle coast to the finish. The good news is that there are good players populating the lineup. What Jed Hoyer and the Cubs need to navigate much better in the future is their contingency plans in the likely event that their Plan A is derailed at some point. And we know it will be derailed! It's been two seasons now with extreme lulls and then dizzying (yet unsatisfying) peaks. As the old adage states: Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is Jed Hoyer getting fired. Fine, fine, a little artistic license was taken here, but you should get the drift. If the Cubs can't avoid these inconsistent cycles, we can count on another missed playoffs and a new front office next season. Note: This was intended to be an all-encompassing article with the lineup, bullpen, and rotation, but due to length and America's decreasing attention span it will be in three parts. Thanks for reading though! View full article

Good teams stop at nothing, trying to find and create advantages over the competition. The Cubs have not been a good team, but they want to be one! With that in mind, they're reportedly set to hire a special assistant they hope will be a boon to their pitching development. Image courtesy of © Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images Tyler Zombro has been working for Tread Athletics in Charlotte, NC. Tread is similar to the more established and famous Driveline in that they use science and technology to unlock athletic potential. Zombro will fill a role for Chicago as a special assistant and will be involved in all aspects of the Cubs pitching going forward. You may remember Zombro from his time in Durham, the Rays' Triple-A affiliate, where he took a 104.1 -mph line drive off of his head. It was a devastating video and terrifying injury. In its wake, Zombro started a second career as a pitching adviser, rather than a pitcher, and has found success quickly. Tread Athletics is the new Big Thing with pitchers, and right on their website is a testimonial from Cole Ragans of the Royals. Further diving into the website shows this list of draftees and MLB pitchers who have utilized their services. For sure, Tanner Scott, Mitch Keller, Josh Hader, and Ragans are solid case studies. Even famous pitching guy Rob Friedman, aka Pitching Ninja, used Tread for his own child who is now throwing 95 miles per hour. Zombro will be tasked, according to press releases, with working as part of the player acquisitions on the pitching side. This does seem like it will be more consulting than in instructing, but that will have to be seen as it plays out. Zombro is credited with popularizing the "Death Ball" pitch and as a trainer would seem to have experience on the instruction side of pitching. It's difficult to know what exactly his role will be, but a pitching strategist can be an integral behind the scenes worker. Listening to this podcast is an interesting dive into his mindset, albeit one light on details for his new role. Zombro was never highly regarded and required a lot of grit to maximize his career. One nugget gleaned from a listen of the podcast, which does focus more on Zombro's past and not his current role, is the stuff vs. results conversation. He does recognize the need for stuff, but also acknowledges that success can come from many different types of pitcher. Cubs fans of course know this having watched Kyle Hendricks and his smoke and mirrors act for almost ten years. Even the Cubs starting staff in 2024 lacked the high octane velocity of many other teams. The Cubs are further leaning in to varying methods of success in pitching. The Cubs under Craig Breslow from 2019 to 2023 made gains in their pitching results and they surely will look to continue this track record. With the Cubs limiting their spending on Hall of Fame quality players, success in the margins like pitching development is important for their hopes to overtake the Dodgers, even if they refuse to behave like them. With pitcher acquisition we can hope that this encourages the Cubs to look for all types of pitchers who could be successful. This would give confidence in current pitchers in the system to thrive, as well as better identify players who can develop into long term pieces for Chicago. As a skills coach, Zombro should be able to identify traits of players to work with and skills to hone in on. One hope the Cubs surely have is to improve pitcher health. The aforementioned Steele, Cade Horton, and Ben Brown are valuable assets who have missed time over the past few seasons. With an esteemed trainer who theoretically would not want his clients having large amounts of Tommy John in their lives, the Cubs are seeking to tap into this experience. Now this move is not all sunshine and lollipops. It's well established that the team will not be spending to try to find that elusive top of rotation starter. This is further diving in to the margins that Jed Hoyer talks about. He doesn't mean finding value on the open market for players; he's married to his process and is trying to utilize the best possible assets to make his process better. This is also added to a firm hired to reduce injury. The Cubs are adding on the margins, just in a way that won't be immediately seen by fans. Time will be the only way fans will see if the moves pay dividends. This certainly is not the most fan pleasing or exciting way to go about running an offseason. It would be far more exciting to announce a big name player signing. With this hire, and the Craig Counsell hire last offseason, the Cubs are announcing their intentions. They believe in how to build a team and are willing to invest heavily in the infrastructure. The unfortunate side effect is that they are becoming progressively more like a small market team and farther away from flexing their financial muscle. Large free agent signings are not part of the plan; developing and maximizing their own is. While this is a laudable goal, the best teams do both. Of course, any pitching coordinator would prefer to start off a rotation with Corbin Burnes or Max Fried, but that doesn't seem to be in the cards. The Cubs continue to move slowly toward their path of being a successful small market franchise in a large market. More will be known about this hire as we go forward. For now, welcome Tyler and I'm glad you're a part of the Cubs! View full article

Cody Bellinger at this point is a Cub much to Jed Hoyer's chagrin. He has the potential to contribute as the regular right fielder and occasional Michael Busch rest provider. But what value does he have on the open trade market? Image courtesy of © Kyle Ross-Imagn Images Cody Bellinger has a well-chronicled salary situation. He's locked into 2025 at $27.5 million and has the option to play 2026 at a $25 million dollar salary. With a 109 WRC+ last season, the Cubs certainly hope he can revert to his 2023 number of 136. Steamer's 2025 projection basically mirrors his 2024 season: 109 WRC+, 20 home runs, and a .429 slugging percentage. These do not address the Cubs' lack of power. A trade of Bellinger might free up salary to fill the need. While the Cubs have some bright spots offensively, statistics show their needs. They were ranked 14th in the league in home runs, but 9th in slugging percentage. This shows a lack of ability to put the ball out of the park. Home run percentage is at 2.8%, 20th in the league. Why is this important? Of the top seven teams in home runs hit, six made the playoffs with the exception of Arizona, who won 89 games. When expanded to the top ten, only Oakland was out of contention. Home runs matter. The Cubs were 20th in this statistic. Clearly, power matters. The Cubs, with a leader of 25 home runs in Ian Happ, are sorely lacking in this area. If the Cubs were to find a taker, it would likely be in conjunction with some sort of high-dollar bat acquisition. Anthony Santander and Pete Alonso have been floated online as potential fits due to their power profile. Still, they are unlikely Cub targets due to their age, salary demands, and the Cubs' aversion to long-term commitments. Free agency will not get the Cubs lineup where it needs to go. A more likely scenario would be for Jed Hoyer to trade for an upgraded bat and then find a taker for Bellinger to offset the salary. At this point, it is impossible to predict who that might be, but many teams face uncertain winters due to the television situation. If the opportunity arises, Bellinger could be flipped to make room under the Cubs' self-imposed salary cap. The Cubs do not have many avenues for trades, or open positions. Left field, right field, and shortstop have no trade clauses, and every position is covered at this point by a controlled asset. There are limited avenues then to make the offense better; with Michael Busch at first, Seiya Suzuki entrenched in right field, Bellinger is redundant to the Cubs lineup. Something would need to give here in order to optimize the lineup. Bellinger does have value to a team who is willing to play him in center field. Peter Crow Armstrong will be given a long leash in Chicago. Perhaps another team will accept his ability to play that position, albeit with a negative UZR and DWAR, according to Fangraphs. The free agent market is weak, with the likes of Harrison Bader, Michael Taylor, and the retiring Kevin Pillar mentioned in the top five by MLB.com. A team needing a center fielder would be the ideal trade target. Who might be in the market at this position? Of course, the Yankees are a fit both at center and first base. Perhaps, though unlikely, the Dodgers would pursue a reunion. The Angels are adding and could sell themselves on a cheap Bellinger trade. Philadelphia has been floated in the past as well. There is no shortage of teams who could use someone at that position. Of course, the Cubs want to compete in 2025, but the trade would be solely for payroll flexibility. That's why it would have to be in conjunction with another move; they won't want to open a new hole in the lineup without addressing it. Any return would be underwhelming and likely consist of low-level prospects, salary filler, or both. Cody Bellinger would not be traded for much of value for the 2025 Cubs. Another reason to trade Bellinger would be to open up roster spots for the Iowa Brigade of Top 100 Bats. It would be very Hoyer like to open up spots for cheaper prospects. For example, Matt Shaw has had a great winter and seems ready to contribute. Owen Caissie in theory is cheap power. Cam Smith will need a place to play soon. The question then would be how Hoyer spends to upgrade elsewhere. While this offseason lacks the glitz and glamour of a Juan Soto pursuit, it does have avenues to improve the team marginally. A Cody Bellinger trade would open up options and make for a flexible offseason. The question is, would the replacements be better than Cody Bellinger? As always, we shall sit back and await developments. View full article

As a veteran of nearly 20 years of marriage, to-do lists have become a big part of my life. In 2004, the list was often written on a notepad, using ink to cross off finished tasks. It's now migrated to the phone, and one can just delete it when done (but don't try to delete it without finishing, that's a big no-no). The Chicago Cubs have a lengthy to-do list—surprisingly so, given their salary structure. What can we expect, and what should the North Siders do this offseason? Image courtesy of © Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images This series of articles is a primer for the release of our new "You're The Cubs GM!" tool, where you play the role of Jed Hoyer and build your own Cubs offseason. Please visit the tool here and join in on the fun! The Roster, As It Stands With Cody Bellinger opting in(also here and here, we've covered this well, right?), the Cubs have their entire lineup locked in and returning from last season. This is both a blessing and a curse. Roster certainty is not bad, but locking in to a team that was merely league-average in runs scored in 2024 does not fill fans' bellies with the excitement of the upcoming Thanksgiving sweet potato casserole. Power is a need that has not been addressed. The pitching picture is similar. Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, and Jameson Taillon are stalwarts. There is a hodgepodge of hopefully cromulent starters waiting in the wings behind them, too: Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, Cade Horton, and Javier Assad. There is a clear need to add reliable arms, however, both in the rotation and the bullpen. The To-Do List: Add power, both at the plate and on the mound. Diversify. This lineup simply cannot be run back as it was last season. Some added pop is needed. Pitching-wise, meanwhile, the Cubs are also lacking in wipeout quality arms, but they likely won't spend to find one. 40-Man Decisions Jed Hoyer has received some deserved credit for fixing a bullpen on the fly, but looking at the 40-man roster shows the cost. Nine current residents of roster spots, plus the recently released Drew Smyly and the departed Kyle Hendricks, are simply disposable. He's had to try to forge quality out of quantity. While that does occasionally yield a Jorge López, it also means that spots are wasted on the following guys, who should be removed immediately: Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom, Trey Wingenter, Keegan Thompson A big-market team needs to do a better job of identifying talent and doing what it takes to bring it in, not wasting spots on guys that even hardcore fans would be stretched to identify. These easy non-tenders (in combination with the cluster of players they waived Monday to make room on the roster, including Jimmy Herget and Christian Bethancourt) would save the Cubs $10-15 million. How much do the Cubs have to spend? Let's estimate that they will be $50 million below the tax threshold, given their financial obligations detailed at FanGraphs. Practically speaking, it will be less, assuming we can take Tom Ricketts at his word and that they will stay just below the luxury tax. Jed Hoyer also has stated in the past that he wants some wiggle room, so let's for conversation sake shave another $10 million off the projected spending. The Cubs will have around $40 million to play with if this holds true. Of course, the Chicago Cubs should blow past the tax this year and build a true contender, but we'll try to live in reality for this one. So what else is on the Chicago to-do list? A catching option. For my money, you cannot go into this season with Miguel Amaya as the sole player at the position. Catching is generally not an offensive position, but the black hole level of play for 2024 (except for August) is devastating. With a .645 OPS and 83 WRC+, Amaya should be a part of the solution, but not seen as the only option for a team that sees itself as contending. Easy Solution: Danny Jansen as a free agent. No, he's not a great hitter or terribly exciting, but he would be a cheaper option, and if Moises Ballesteros is ready you can easily just cast him aside. Two starting pitchers: When you look at this team with a slightly pessimistic bent, there's a strong case for regression from all of the pitchers in the rotation. Imanaga? Unless he's a true ace-level pitcher, he's bound to regress. Steele? Health is a perennial question for him. Taillon and Assad? Wrigley Field played as a pitchers' park, and these two were significantly worse on the road than at home. Horton and Brown? Health won't allow them to start in 2025, at least for a full season. They aren't built up for it well enough. Jordan Wicks, disappointingly, just didn't look like a pitcher you want to pencil into a contender's rotation. He performed poorly even when he got onto the mound. The rotation is lacking at the top end, and also in depth. It's not a crisis, and this could all look quite foolish in a year. With the lineup set at the moment, though, the starting pitching is a logical area to address with this $40 million. There is a top of the rotation type arm available, in Max Fried. If he's interested in reuniting with good friend Dansby Swanson, and the Cubs will pay the estimated $30 million per year, this is a great match. Of course, if it's only $40 million dollars to spend, this is too much to spend on one player and address the other needs. Shane Bieber (on a pillow deal), or maybe Walker Buehler or Matthew Boyd, would make some sense as cheaper options who could provide stellar production in the mold of the New York Mets' last offseason. This is the more likely path than Fried, given the tendencies this front office has shown. Probably two or three relief options: This could go so many different directions, but the main idea is that Jed Hoyer needs to have more predictable players in the pen. The hope would be that not so many slots on the 40-man would be taken up by "hey, maybe this guy will work out" types. With $40 million, this would take the Cubs out of contention for any of the major free agents, but not for any trades. The Cubs could dangle literally everyone on the roster besides Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, and Dansby Swanson for upgrades, and should do so if the return is a batter with around a .900 OPS. How should Cub fans feel about this offseason? For this writer, it's (as the kids say) mid. Their self-imposed financial constraints preclude a major, franchise-altering addition. The Cubs are full of average to good players; they will need to get creative in order to make that final leap to greatness. Only time will tell if Jed Hoyer can be creative enough to pull off that level of success. What do you think of this offseason plan? Do you think you can do better? Then build your own Cubs roster and hit the button below! Start Your Payroll Blueprint Now View full article

After an entire season of speculation, we now have an answer. Cody Bellinger will opt into his $27.5 million dollar deal for the 2025 season. Fans and front offices can now get to the real work of deciding what this means for the Cubs in 2025 and beyond. Image courtesy of © Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images First of all, the impact on the Cubs and their budget. Tom Ricketts has stated the Cubs will live around the luxury tax. With the Cubs apparently accidentally going over the tax last season, likely, they will not want to exceed the tax this season unless they are in contention. Without arbitration tenders available, their space under the tax is $58 million, according to Spotrac. Several players, such as Isaac Paredes, Justin Steele, and Nate Pearson, will surely be tendered, and projections by MLB Trade Rumors project a final total for the Cubs at 40 million dollars under the luxury tax. Of course, fans do not need to care about how much money the Cubs spend. The luxury tax is designed to help small market teams compete, not to add money to the coffers of franchises in major markets. Tom Ricketts, though, has set his limits, and $40 million is not enough to add the impact bat, high-level pitcher, and reliable relief arms the team has lacked for years. Jed Hoyer is surely not pleased to have this loss of flexibility in his lame-duck season. On the field, this is not the worst-case scenario. Cody Bellinger slashed a solid .266/.325/.426, good for a 109 WRC+ and 2.2 WAR. He's not the reason the Cubs are stuck on 83 wins. Defensively, his value is declining, and he'll mostly be confined to right field and first base. Bellinger looks to be a lock for the third spot in the Cubs lineup. Health, while having eleven injuries in the past four years, is also a concern, but he did play 130 games last season. The opportunity cost for Bellinger's return is possibly high. Kevin Alcantara and Owen Caissie will languish in Iowa for a second season with no openings on the roster for consistent at-bats. The Cubs also will not be able to afford a true masher for the middle of their lineup; they'll have to hope for Bellinger to repeat his 2023. This probably isn't the news the Cubs wanted, but it is nice to have some clarity on the offseason and the Cubs' path going forward. Congratulations are due to the Bellinger household and the generational wealth they've just locked into. View full article

As it turns out, the Cubs second baseman has a doctor's note to excuse his disappointing season at the plate, not to mention his declining arm strength. He just underwent surgery on the flexor tendon in his right forearm. So, what now? Image courtesy of © Rafael Suanes-Imagn Images We don't know for sure, but it seems very possible this is related to when Nico Hoerner was hit by a pitch on the right hand on Jun. 7. A quick search shows that a forceful blow to the hand can result in a flexor tendon injury, and a direct hit on the hand by a pitched baseball by Hunter Greene at 96.5 miles per hour certainly qualifies. Although he didn't leave the game, Hoerner's performance was affected at the plate for a long time after that. He posted a .627 OPS in June and a .636 in July. While his average rebounded in August and September, the power never materialized. For the year, he hit just seven home runs and ending with a slugging percentage of .373. Another red flag, in hindsight, is Hoerner's declining arm strength. His throws from second base have declined from an average of 82.6 miles per hour in 2021 and 78.1 in 2023 to 75.1 this year. Seventy-five is not a large number; this author could throw that speed in high school and had a grand total of six varsity at-bats. Zero college scouts asked the coach my name. For the offseason, the implications of this development are unhappy: it will be hard for the team to trade him to facilitate an offensive upgrade this winter. Most of his perceived value was due to his ability to play shortstop, with teams like Atlanta, Los Angeles, and Seattle floated in rumors. A team will want more information on his recovery before acquiring him to play a spot so dependent on the ability to make long, strong throws. He averaged over 85 miles per hour on throws from short in 2021 and 2022, but that slipped to 82 even in 2023, and he didn't play the position enough to post a number in 2024. In his compromised state, he'd have the weakest shortstop arm in baseball. Even at second, he will have to prove that he's recovered. On the more positive side, Hoerner's perceived down year and his lack of power are explained, if not excused. It's hard to hit a baseball; it's extra hard to hit a baseball when your hand hurts and you can't grip the bat as well as normal. With an offseason to recover, Hoerner should be back to his consistent .280-.290 average, and perhaps he can yet unlock some gap power. He's a good baseball player; the injury surely contributed to his uncharacteristically poor middle of the season. Should the injury linger into next season, the Cubs have a couple of intriguing in-house options in Iowa. James Triantos replicated Hoerner's skill set at the plate, batting .300 with a .773 OPS at two levels last season. Speed is also in his game, as he totaled 47 stolen bases. If the Cubs can stomach the defensive hit, Triantos could fill in until Hoerner comes back. Matt Shaw is an even trendier pick. In the minors, he did provide more pop, as evidenced by his .488 SLG across two levels. A fully realized offensive season from Shaw would clear the bar Hoerner sets, even when healthy. If the Cubs decide to go outside of the organization for some more safety, free agency is filed with stopgap options, such as Adam Frazier, Garrett Hampson, or Whit Merrifield—although, now you read those back, exactly what gap can any of them stop? As we've already discussed around here lately, Brandon Lowe could be an intriguing solution via trade. There's no good thing about a starting second baseman having offseason surgery and attempting to get healthy and ramp back up the following season, except that it's even worse to simply play hurt. The Cubs will have to get even more creative to fill this position, unless the surgeon who fixed Hoerner's arm is the same guy Henry Rowengartner got. Hoyer needs to get to work, to make sure this lineup doesn't crater like it did while Hoerner was ailing last year. View full article

Everyone got to read Tom Ricketts's letter to Cubs fans about the 2024 season. Only you special souls who found this post get a sneak peek at next year's version. Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images [Note: Some specific names are mentioned, like Kyle Tucker, but it's not meant to be a PREDICTION that Tucker is coming in a trade, but more of a reflection of a surprise trade as a general possibility. Obviously, this is an outrageously hopeful bit of dreaming, but it's the weekend. Let us dream together.] Now that's more like it! We went into last offseason with money to spend, prospects to dream on, and a sense of urgency in the building to build a true contender. We sought to dominate the playoffs, not just compete for the final spots. Our goals were realized, and we hope Cub fans feel their patience was rewarded with this outstanding, historic Chicago Cubs team. After an embarrassing 2024 wherein we fell short of our goal, our front office truly committed to building a winner on the North Side. We're thrilled to reward Jed Hoyer, the new Executive of the Year for Major League Baseball, with a five-year extension; we couldn't be more excited about the state of the franchise. We feel this affirms our decision, last fall, not to extend Jed until he was able to deliver a winner to our fans, and we're grateful that Jed understood that assignment. Great trades like the one for Kyle Tucker really created a winning environment. While it fell short of the ultimate goal of a World Series championship, this year's deep playoff run thrilled everyone, and we can't wait to see what Jed cooks up for 2026 and beyond. Nothing has us more excited for the future than the overnight emergence of homegrown budding superstar Cam Smith. With his ascent, along with Matt Shaw and Moises Ballesteros, we have a core of young talent fans can believe in and attach themselves to. With Cody Bellinger opting out and last winter's top free-agent bats going elsewhere, having these three prospects was the key to our success. They made it possible for our front office to trade Isaac Paredes for the ace arm we needed to finish the race and finally make it back to October. Our bullpen certainly came to play this season. Porter Hodge cemented himself as a terrifying option in the ninth inning, and Ben Brown was a great bridge to him in the second half. Of course, Craig Counsell was named Manager of the Year, and with good reason. Integrating the prospects with steady veterans Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, and Nico Hoerner while improving our record by 10 games was no small feat. He refused to use the inevitable injuries as an excuse, and his leadership when Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga missed time, not to mention Cade Horton's injury setbacks, was invaluable. A great manager makes a big difference, and Craig proved that this year. Our defense was the crown jewel of the resulting run, as Dansby, Nico, Ian, Michael Busch, and Pete Crow-Armstrong tied the record for Gold Glove winners on the same team. Pete, Shota, Ian, and Hodge also represented us in Atlanta for the All-Star game. Cubs fans should be proud to have watched so many award-winning players on the field. Fans, we thank you for your patience as we built this organization back to a level you deserve. While attendance was down early, the enthusiasm in Wrigley Field in September carried the team and you, the fans, would not allow another September swoon. We knew that the patience of the fans was wearing thin and we're proud of the product that we put on the field in 2025. Now, it's time to get to work and bring in another championship season into the North Side. Sincerely, Tom Ricketts Well, what do you think? Pie in the sky optimism, gritty realism, what do you make of this? Feel free to hit it in the comments. View full article

On October 11, Cubs Chairman of the Board of Directors Tom Ricketts sent his annual letter to Cubs fans. Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images Much like a Jed Hoyer press conference, if you are already predisposed to anger toward the Ricketts family, you will find ample to become angry about. Here's the full text of the letter with reactions to it. Well, this is a promising start, but the body of the text isn't great. Mentioning injuries is very tone-deaf. Spotrac places the Cubs 19th in MLB on the amount of money injured this season, behind the playoff contestant Astros, Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, Braves, Brewers, Padres, and Phillies. Eight of the 12 teams had less value lost than the Cubs, and Ricketts cites this as an excuse. The Pirates and Reds, moving more locally, also had more days lost to the IL than Chicago. Injuries happen. The issue was that they didn't have a deep enough team to overcome them. Inconsistent play, sure, I can get along with that, but that second-half surge is becoming an annual event. Ricketts and Hoyer believe in the numbers. They are instructive, however. The Cubs BABIP (Batting Average, Balls In Play) was .264 for a .217 batting average in May. In August, the Good Month of Competitive Baseball, it was a .295 BABIP and was in the range of .289 to .309. That's very consistent. Here's what he should have cited as his reasons the Cubs struggled: lack of power, lack of defined bullpen roles, lack of depth, and poor clutch play on both sides of the ball. Don't use injuries as an excuse. Eight teams made the playoffs, losing more value to injuries than the Cubs. This isn't what fans needed to hear. The team has indeed modernized many things in the pipeline. First, there are reports of the Cubs cutting these top player scouts and moving to video scouting more often. Second, why haven't they made an impact on the big-league club? Listen to this podcast; the Cubs have not pushed them at the major league level. Will they do this in 2025? What is the goal with these prospects? Should we expect to see them next season, be traded, or rot away in Iowa? It's unquestionably good to have prospects and even better to have multiple good ones. Let's look at the Cubs' prospects' success rate and bust potential here. The Cubs do not have a top-20 global prospect in the system. 22. Matt Shaw, 62.4% bust rate 34. Owen Caissie, OF 42. Cade Horton, RHP: also lower in many places such as ESPN, 87.5% bust rate when ranked at 90-100 44. Moises Ballesteros, C/1B 55. James Triantos, 2B/OF 67. Kevin Alcántara, OF 73. Cam Smith, 3B 100. Jefferson Rojas, SS You can reference the bust rate found in a 2014 study. There is no reference to the potential downside here, or about using the players as trade chips, or any view of possible creative use of these people. If you look at the "superior" tab, which the Cubs are sorely in need of, there's, at best, a 25% chance of any of these individuals reaching standout levels. It's a good thing, but how the players are leveraged at this point is more telling. Here's a fun graphic as well: By placing this first, Tom Ricketts is making the classic small-market play. He's selling hope for the future, which is good, but as a top-three market in the league, the Cubs must properly evaluate that 60% bust rate. Fans must be savvy in evaluating this farm system and not just take Tom's word. There's a decent chance that none of these players succeed. It's a pretty standard highlight package here if somewhat underwhelming. Hey, Pete Crow-Armstrong was electrifying on defense! If we had truth serum, I wonder if Tom Ricketts not mentioning Dansby Swanson (who was better than Crow-Armstrong on defense), Cody Bellinger (who they likely want to opt out this offseason), or Seiya Suzuki (who was their best hitter with an .848 OPS) is a sign of where his head is. There is a world where Tom holds the Swanson deal as Jed Hoyer's biggest splash against him, the Bellinger deal as the highest single value, and the Suzuki trade for a now-DH as a negative in the job evaluations. Citing these stats just shows how underwhelming the roster was in 2024. There really isn't much to be outraged about in this article; there are more nits to be picked than anything. Nothing in it indicates a major change in roster or philosophy is coming. Hoyer and Ricketts are in lockstep; expect a quiet offseason in Chicago. View full article