Brian Kelder

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images Craig Counsell was hired for this. Eight million dollars should buy a great strategist for the playoffs. Luckily for Counsell, though, he doesn't have to put that massive brain to work right now. He can just read this article, set his pitching lineups, and go puff a victory cigar. Here is the Cubs' optimal pitching plan for the Wild Card Series. Game 1: Shota Imanaga The Padres have a number of left-handed bats in the lineup. Two of them, Luis Arraez and Jackson Merrill, have greater than 50-point drops in their on-base percentage against left-handed pitching this year. Gavin Sheets and Ryan O'Hearn also hit left-handed, and while they have been fairly split-neutral this season, historically, they struggle against same-handed pitching. Even ultra-talented right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. is less effective against southpaws: his batting average drops 55 points, and his slugging craters down to .344. Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts, although dangerous bats, are not lefty mashers. It makes sense to weaken the Padres from the start. Imanaga is the most likely Cubs starter to go deep into a game, which is important with a three-game set. A short series is always a challenge for a staff. Imanaga has averaged almost six innings per start. More importantly, only once has he failed to go five innings (two, if you count the Tokyo game). This stability will give Counsell more options in the later games, as you will see. After Imanaga tires, the short relievers can take over. Caleb Thielbar and Drew Pomeranz can handle lefty-heavy parts of the lineup, Brad Keller can take the toughest stretch in the later innings, and Andrew Kittredge can act as the nominal closer. The bulk relievers would be fresh for the next game or two. Game 2: Cade Horton Everyone knows he's been good. No—he's been better. With a 1.03 ERA and a 0.77 WHIP over his last 12 starts, Horton is giving 2015 Jake Arrieta vibes. His duel with Paul Skenes on September 16 was electric; he's clearly not fazed by the spotlight. So why not use him in the first game? It's the uncertainty. Not performance, although his metrics don't support this level of performance. It's the stamina portion. Since August began, Horton has averaged 74 pitches thrown per game—and that's if you throw out his truncated appearance Tuesday. His maximum in this time is 87, and the minimum is 61 (or 29, now). We're also in uncharted territory for innings pitched in Horton's career. Due to injuries and extremely careful pitch count monitoring, he's at a career high 118 innings pitched in 23 games, an average barely over 5 per start. Playoff baseball is also a step up in intensity; nobody really knows how the rookie will respond. The Cubs should be confident in this start, but cautious, as well. For this reason, Colin Rea should be warmed and ready to come in at early signs of fatigue or struggle. If this happens earlier than expected—say, the third inning—Rea could pitch several innings. While he has been primarily a starter in his career, in 62 relief innings, Rea has an outstanding 2.32 ERA. Ideally, Horton would nail down five hitless innings, but Rea gives that buffer. If Horton and Rea get through the sixth inning, the Keller/Pomeranz/Thielbar/Kittredge combo should be able to piece together nine more outs. The strategy changes some based on the Game 1 outcome. If the Cubs lose that, it's an all-hands-on-deck situation in Game 2. In that case, you would cycle through shorter-inning relievers faster, hoping to cobble together scoreless frames that way. Michael Soroka would be instrumental there, for example. If one of the first two games is a blowout, Aaron Civale or Javier Assad would be available to soak up those innings and save the higher-leverage pitchers for game 3. Speaking of......... Game 3: Matthew Boyd No, Boyd has not finished the season in the All-Star form he began it in. His ERA is an unsightly 4.74 in the second half. The aforementioned left-handedness should get him the nod in Game 3, though. Jameson Taillon would pitch in an emergency situation—unless Daniel Palencia is there for his spot, adding another electric arm to the late innings. This would be a short outing for Boyd, only two times through the order at most, and less if the stuff isn't sharp. The Cubs will have six short relievers to finish the game off. A rough sketch: Boyd: 9-12 batters, 3-4 innings Civale/Assad: 1-2 innings, bridge to the back of the bullpen OR Boyd: early departure Taillon: gets into the sixth inning Here's a predicted list of pitchers for the postseason roster, and their roles. Starters: Cade Horton, Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd Short Relievers: Andrew Kittredge, Brad Keller, Drew Pomeranz, Caleb Thielbar, Taylor Rogers, Michael Soroka Long Relief: Colin Rea, Javier Assad, Jameson Taillon Health Wild Cards: Daniel Palencia, Soroka, Aaron Civale Stay Away: Ben Brown, Porter Hodge. It's been Counsell's strength as a manager this season: managing the pitching staff. From navigating Justin Steele's elbow injury to avoiding overuse of relief arms, this area has been Counsell's biggest source of obvious value to the team. He'll be tested this October, but should be ready for the challenge. It's then up to the arms on the roster to produce. View full article

Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-Imagn Images Cub fans can be a cynical lot. The second half of Pete Crow-Armstrong's 2025 season feeds into that. He's been bad in the second half. He has a woeful .259 on-base percentage and a lousy .352 slugging average in the second half, a far cry from the first half (.302 and .544). Memories of 2023 Christopher Morel popped into a few people's heads. Are the comparisons apt? Morel—a high-energy, nose-pierced, toolsy player—first came up in 2022, but his breakout came in 2023, when he socked 26 home runs and slugged .508. Much hype was attached to his 2024; he did not deliver. Morel didn't top .200 in batting average before he was traded to Tampa Bay as part of the Isaac Paredes trade. On the surface, the two players seem similar at the plate. They employ a pull-heavy, power-oriented swing, and are similarly built physically. Both have had electric stretches at the plate. Morel hit .281/.345/.545 over his first 250 plate appearances of 2023. Crow-Armstrong had a span of 328 trips to the plate that ran into the All-Star break over which he batted .280/.311/.606. Morel fell off badly (.268 OBP for the rest of 2023), though, and hasn't rebounded (.692 OPS in Tampa); Crow-Armstrong has cratered, as well. The question is: can we expect a different fate for Crow-Armstrong, in the medium term? The superficial similarities leap out, but the truth is: They aren't that similar! Morel was a much more patient hitter, waiting for his pitch and hitting it hard at a high rate. Crow-Armstrong, conversely, does not walk at a high level, but makes more contact. Crow-Armstrong's swing is very steep; Morel's is one of the league's flattest. The destination is about the same, but the journeys that take them there are quite different. Let's talk batted-ball profile. Stat Category Crow-Armstrong Morel League Average Launch Angle 18.9 12.4 12.4 Pull % 44 47 37 Pull in Air 28.7 26.7 16.7 Ground Ball % 42 42 42 Tilt 35° 29° 32 These are fascinating. They both pull the ball at roughly the same rate, and also pull the ball in the air at nearly identical ones. Their ground ball rate is identical. An astute fan would point out the extreme value that Crow-Armstrong has in the field and on the bases; Morel has turned out to work only as a mediocre defensive left fielder. This is all true, and will ensure a higher overall floor for Crow-Armstrong. Purely at the plate, though, he's struggled, and that has stripped him of MVP candidate talk. Some great players do have a tilt higher than his, but Crow-Armstrong is an outlier in plate approach. To make the leap, he'll have to choose his pitches better, and strike on his terms more. The list below is notable for the walk rates: Player Tilt Walk Rate Riley Greene 45 33% Aaron Judge 38 100% Freddie Freeman 42 67% James Wood 42 90% Pete Crow-Armstrong 35 7% Crow-Armstrong's average launch angle is 20°, which places him 18th in the league. Cal Raleigh leads the league at 25°, and he's obviously been a great power hitter. Crow-Armstrong's is higher than noted sluggers Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber. He doesn't have a power hitter's frame, but he does have a power hitter's approach. The average player swings at 45% of pitches. Crow-Armstrong swings at 61%. He needs to fix this, or risk a boom-and-bust profile for the rest of his career. Players with his swing profile who have had success had much more patient plate approaches. They selectively look for their pitch and attack it. Crow-Armstrong has just looked to attack. Crow-Armstrong and Morel have shown similar results at some similar career junctures, but the approach they have taken is vastly different. In hindsight, metrics did agree with Morel being a solid player. He just lacked the bat control to make consistent contact. Crow-Armstrong does not lack bat control. He simply lacks a command of the strike zone, and his approach is to seek and destroy any pitch, not wait for his. Yes, the second-half slump stings. But Crow-Armstrong’s combination of defense, speed, and a unique swing profile makes him a different case than Morel. If he finds even league-average discipline at the plate, the MVP chatter that briefly swirled in the first half could return for good. View full article

Image courtesy of © Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images Daniel Palencia, newly minted Closer With Entrance Music™️, left Sunday's loss to the Nationals with what has been diagnosed as a posterior scapular strain in his throwing shoulder. The Cubs will be forced to scramble to fill bullpen roles in the last month of the season and (in all likelihood) the postseason. What will they do to patch the hole? Strains in the area where Palencia suffered his generally require weeks to heal, followed by ramp-up and rehab. If you remove injuries like this one that happened in September (to avoid the bad data of players whose time missed was artificially curtailed by the end of the season), the average return time is roughly 10 weeks, and the median is eight weeks. Game 7 of the 2025 World Series is just under eight weeks from now; Palencia's season is almost certainly over. Palencia has been struggling since August, when his ERA hit its lowest mark of 1.36 and he was maintaining a .174 batting average against. Since then, his ERA has been 8.74 ,with a .377 batting average against; it's fair to wonder if this has been an issue since then. Craig Counsell also alluded to a previous shoulder ailment that wasn't a "big deal," but it's become a big deal this time. The Cubs do have options, but it will require a shuffling of roles. BRAD KELLER Keller has been a complete revelation this season, but really found his groove in August. Since August 1, he's struck out 20 of the 55 batters he's faced; allowed just nine baserunners; and given up no earned runs. He doesn'tt have concerning split numbers (.451 OPS vs. right-handed bats, .576 vs. left-handed ones). He's been the relief ace who doesn't pitch in the ninth inning, allowing Counsell to utilize him in the highest-leverage situations. It would be a fitting decision to slot him as closer, but understandable if they utilize him in the role in which he's excelled all season. ANDREW KITTREDGE At 34, Kittredge has never filled a full-time closer role, but that doesn't mean he's incapable of it. He does have wipeout stuff, as evidenced by 18 strikeouts in his 14 innings as a Cub. Home runs have led to his two poor outings, leading to a blown save (which the Cubs eventually won on August 22 vs. the Angels) and a complete meltdown on August 5 vs. the Reds. Besides these, he's been a solid reliever. He has tallied two saves on the team, as well. Paired with his high-leverage usage, six holds and an extra-innings win last week, the case could be made that Counsell will trust him first to man the ninth. CALEB THIELBAR Thielbar's performance would merit a look in the later innings. A 2.12 ERA with a WHIP of 0.82 plays in any inning, especially the ninth. Thielbar is a lefty, though, and has allowed only a .132 batting average to lefty batters. The Cubs will continue to deploy him as their lefty destroyer, giving them flexibility in the earlier innings. JAVIER ASSAD This won't happen, but remember those games in the World Baseball Classic? Assad was used as a reliever, and was electric in his short bursts, hitting 97 and fist pumping his way around the mound. As the cool kids say, he had aura. It's unlikely—they'll need bulk innings from him—but it would be a fun option. JAXON WIGGINS Brett Taylor at Bleacher Nation wrote on this possibility, and it is interesting, but terrifying. The Athletic reported that Counsell watched Wiggins's last start in Iowa. Wiggins debuted this season in High A, and has made it to the Triple-A level. He's a top-100 prospect who would routinely hit 100 miles per hour with his heater out of the pen. There are some famous, recent examples of top prospects coming and helping in playoff runs: 2002 Francisco Rodriguez: 5 IP in regular season, 18.2 in playoffs as the Angels won the World Series 2008 David Price: 14 IP in regular season, pitched in 5 of the Rays' wins in their postseason run Wiggins would be fun, exciting, and extremely risky. Given the caution used in playing time for youngsters like Owen Caissie and Moisés Ballesteros, this would be a Hail Mary move from an organization that typically eschews such nonsense. The reality is that the team will probably just backfill with one of their returning, injured starter types (Jameson Taillon and/or Michael Soroka) and shove everyone up the bullpen ladder one rung, without Palencia. It's a huge bummer to think about, but baseball can be a series of bummers. The Cubs are blessed with a great bullpen. No team wants this type of disruption, but the Cubs are well suited to handle it. Expect Kittredge to get the first crack at the ninth, with Keller waiting in the wings and Thielbar as the matchup weapon. Losing Palencia stings, but this bullpen is built to survive September turbulence. We can all hope that it further solidifies the Cubs' ability to perform under suboptimal circumstances. View full article

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images Outstanding ESPN reporter Kiley McDaniel published earlier this week that has quite a lot to say about the state of Major League Baseball. It's an outstanding read, focusing on the core talent that MLB teams have locked in for two full seasons after this one. The Cubs did not fare particularly well in this. The article placed them 17th, in the bottom half of teams in the league. Players are broken down into the following tiers: Elite (5+WAR, All-Star talent, MVP potential), Plus (3-5 WAR types), and Solid (1-3 WAR, solid starter or good role player). The Cubs had one Elite (Pete Crow-Armstrong), two Plus (Dansby Swanson and Michael Busch), and 13 Solid players (too numerous to place a cumbersome list in front of you). Of the solid players, seven of the 13 are prospects, one is an injured Justin Steele, and Miguel Amaya is a debatable add given his struggles to stay on the field. The first takeaway here is that the Cubs have a ton of work to do on this front. They only have three players in their lineup in the top two tiers that are under control beyond 2026. Given past history, it's quite unlikely that Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, and Kyle Tucker make up the Cubs outfield in 2027. The rotation is similarly not locked up, with only Cade Horton guaranteed to be around at that time (who McDaniel grossly underestimates as a "Solid" piece). This season has (mostly) been a pleasure to watch, but there's always been a bit of a stain to it; since the beginning, it has felt like a one-year situation. The position players whose contracts are ending soon are going to be over 30, not the type of players that Jed Hoyer typically invests in. A quick look at the pitching staff reveals mostly the same. Matthew Boyd, Caleb Thielbar, and the parade of elderly relievers have been great, but is this repeatable? The stench of a one-year wonder in the vein of the 2021 Giants or the White Sox of that same season follows this team. Hoyer surely planned to have the farm system replace the aging veterans. That system has produced some great talent, but it hasn't kept up with graduations and trades, getting ranked 19th by ESPN and 22 by Fangraphs in mid-season updates. None of the prospects according to the Fangraphs' Future Value system project to have more WAR than the players currently on the roster. Players like Jonathan Long, Owen Caissie, and Jefferson Rojas simply don't project to outperform Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner, and Seiya Suzuki, though they do at least have relatively high ceilings. Pitching development, a major plank in the Cubs' platform, has basically failed in the minors. Look at the top prospects in pitching for Chicago: Brandon Birdsell: Injured after just eight starts and 32 innings, likely to miss most or all of 2026 Jordan Wicks: 8.71 ERA while riding the Iowa to Chicago shuttle Jaxon Wiggins: missed significant time with injury, which is to be expected with a 100 MPH fastball The rest of the top 30 organizational prospects are toiling in the low minors. The Cubs will have to roll the dice and try to find the next Matthew Boyd. They'll also have to pray Cade Horton stays healthy, an iffy proposition given his past. The pipeline is otherwise dry as far as pitching in the minors. With the farm system drying up, the Cubs will have to adjust their spending strategy. In short, they will have to maybe pass the arbitrary line that the IVY model spits out for contracts. It's probably asking too much for, say, Kevin Alcantara to come in and do what Ian Happ did, especially given his struggles against breaking balls. This farm system does not look to be ready to replace what will be leaving. This is the major challenge the Cubs will have after this year. "Contention Window" needs to be a phrase this organization does not use. Every year should be an attempt to contend in a market like Chicago. Hopefully, Jed Hoyer and the front office will be able to pull a rabbit out of their hats and prove ESPN wrong. View full article

Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images The Cubs are in an enviable position this September. As a fan, it's understandable to feel some fatigue, watch some football, and forget all of this. After all, there's no stress, and the stakes don't really rise until September 30 now, right? Wrong. The Cubs are setting themselves up for October. Here is a watcher's guide to the Cubs in September. 1: POSTSEASON ROSTER The Cubs can keep 26 on their postseason roster. With the Wild Card Series being only three games, pitching depth is less important. They can keep 13, but may just opt to keep 11 or 12 arms, especially for that first series. The roster locks are obvious: Kyle Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Michael Busch, Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson, Matt Shaw, and Carson Kelly will start. Willi Castro, Justin Turner, and Reese Maguire comprise the established depth. Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, and Cade Horton are likely to be the starters in a three-game series. Similarly, Daniel Palencia, Caleb Thielbar, Andrew Kittridge, and Brad Keller will comprise the back end of the bullpen. At this point, there are 19 stone-cold locks for the postseason. That leaves: Position Player Competition: Carlos Santana, Owen Caissie, Kevin Alcántara Pitching Competition: Drew Pomeranz, Colin Rea, Javier Assad, Taylor Rogers, Jameson Taillon, Porter Hodge, Ryan Brasier, Ben Brown September performances and health will dictate the postseason roster. Alcántara would seem to be a hedge on a Crow-Armstrong substitution, and Santana an extra bat in that situation, leaving Caissie off. That would leave five pitchers from the above list of eight, with three being left off. Pitching Questions to answer: Is Ben Brown reliable enough for the postseason? Is Brasier cooked? Are Taillon and Assad healthy enough? Is Rea good enough? It seems very likely that at least one of Taillon and Assad makes the squad. Rea and Brown have been bulk-innings guys for the team, but if they end up on the playoff roster, it will almost certainly be as short relievers. Can they demonstrate that their stuff can play up under those constraints? 2: AUGUST SLUMPERS Will Pete Crow-Armstrong rebound? The starting center fielder's .446 OPS in August needs to come up if the Cubs are going to have confidence in him. His .188/.218/.388 slash line against left-handed pitching this year will also impact planning for the playoff run. The former MVP candidate has fallen into a deep, long slump. Coming out in October is crucial for the lineup. Will Seiya Suzuki recapture his career form? Suzuki's approach has been inconsistent in 2025. You can see it in his walk rate. In August, he did tally 21 walks, good for a .375 OBP, but he only totaled 18 in June and July combined. The real problem, of course, is that the walks he did collect last month appear to be a symptom of an inability to drive the ball. Since the All-Star break, Suzuki's slugging average is a lowly .271. Long gone are the days when we wondered if he could reach 150 RBIs. The Cubs need him to get right, even if that means something less than what he did during the first half. WHO WILL HIT LEADOFF? The leadoff spot has not been kind to Michael Busch. Maybe he'd have slumped either way, but ever since Craig Counsell pressed him into leadoff duty because of other players' struggles, he's gone from red-hot to ice-cold. He has a .264 OBP in the last 30 days. Nico Hoerner snagged a start at leadoff on September 3 against Atlanta, and his OBP is comparable to that of other bats in the lineup. Matt Shaw has done well, but moving a rookie out of his comfortable spot seems too risky. FINAL THOUGHTS I implore you to not stress about an individual game or performance down the stretch. The Cubs are playing the long game and trying to optimize their roster for what is to come. Guys will be taken out of no-hitters in the sixth inning. Others will sit games for slight tightness, in order to avoid long-term injuries. It's all fine. Annoyance is fine, of course. It is the Cubs, and they can be annoying. The Cubs are trying to win games, but the subplots here will take precedence. You need to run Hodge out there to see if he can recapture last year's magic, for example. If and as Michael Soroka gets healthy, the team will want to see what he can do, too. The Cubs are good and they're going to the playoffs. Let's give them some space to make the best decisions about who to bring along. View full article

Image courtesy of © Cody Scanlan/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images It's time to forget about the most recent game, the Cubs' possible pitching woes, and Craig Counsell's game management for a second. The Cubs are 76-58, 18 games over .500 and just 1.0 games out from having the second-best record in the National League. Fangraphs gives the squad a 99.6% chance of making the playoffs. Barring an epic collapse, we will be watching the Cubs in October. As such, there are a number of scenarios that could await the Cubs once the postseason begins. We'll go from the best-case scenario first and then get progressively worse after that. First of all, a quick refresh on the playoff system. Wild Card series are best-of-three, and played in the home stadium of the higher seeded team. The NLDS will be a best-of-five series, with three games played in the higher seed's home. All other series are best of seven, with four games in the higher seeded park. Scenario 1: Cubs win NL Central Fangraphs does have Milwaukee at 92.8% projected odds to win the division, so this is rather unlikely. However, the Cubs in 2023 had similar odds to make the playoffs and, of course, did not. The Brewers are dealing with a bit of adversity as well. While winning four of their last ten games is less than ideal for them, losing closer Trevor Megill due to a flexor strain makes it sting just a bit more. Andrew Vaughn has a .595 OPS over the past fourteen days and likely will return to the bench when Rhys Hoskins returns. However, they should be buoyed by Jackson Chourio's return, and the bullpen figures to have the depth to manage. This is unlikely, but if it does work out that the Cubs win their division, they likely would finish with the top seed in the Senior Circuit, meaning they'd get a bye in the Wild Card Round. There's only a 7% chance here, but baseball is baseball and it could happen. The team they would be hosting would be dictated by the Wild Card Round results. Scenario 2: Cubs nail down first NL Wild Card This is the most likely based on statistical projections. They would then face the fifth seed in the National League. Currently, that team is the San Diego Padres, two games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers. The New York Mets lurk, with a 4.5-game lead over the nearest contender, the Cincinnati Reds. This seems like a good time to see how the Cubs match up with all three of these squads. LOS ANGELES DODGERS This is the worst-case scenario for Chicago. The Dodgers have had a post-Series slump all season and haven't seemed truly locked in to their true talent projections. At this point, they are healthy in their starting rotation and it's truly fearsome. Imagine the hitters' meetings going in to a series facing these pitchers: Game 1: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: .2.90 ERA, 157 K in 139 2/3 IP Game 2: Tyler Glasnow: 3.36 ERA, 75 K in 62 IP Game 3: Blake Snell: 1.97 ERA in his healthy six games Game 4: Shohei Ohtani, Clayton Kershaw, and the bullpen. Do you see my point here? This is a championship-level rotation if they stay healthy. The Cubs, featuring Matthew Boyd, rookie Cade Horton, and Shota Imanaga have room in the discussion, but they are blown out of the water by this group. Offensively, the lineup is still top-heavy, with Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith having typical seasons. Mookie Betts and Teoscar Hernandez loom as dangerous hitters with playoff experience, despite their batting averages still hanging out in the .240 range. Max Muncy has also been resurgent since he started wearing glasses. Really, only Michael Conforto has failed to contribute. Breathe here, people, just a bit. As things currently stand, Cubs would not face this team until the NLCS. In that world, if the Cubs were to defeat the Padres (more coming on them momentarily), the Brewers would stand in their way. Daunting, perhaps, but the Cubs can enter that series with confidence that they are on the same level. SAN DIEGO PADRES The Padres are a bit of a harder team to figure out. The name brand value of their players is quite high. The production for nearly every player is slightly lower than you would expect. For sure, though, they would be a tough matchup. Look at this rotation, and keep in mind that the Wild Card series is, at most, just three games long: Dylan Cease: 4.82 ERA but 3.73 FIP, 11.6 K/9 innings Nick Pivetta: 2.82 ERA and 0.94 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 Michael King (currently out with knee injury): 2.81 ERA, 1.09 WHIP That's a formidable trio. Now factor in that they only may need 4-5 innings from a starter with this elite bullpen: Jason Adam, Wandy Peralta, former Cub Jeremiah Estrada, Adrian Morejon, and closer Robert Suarez. Adam, Suarez, and Morejon were named to the All-Star team this year, Estrada has a 12.7 K/9, and Peralta a 2.73 ERA. Oh, and they acquired human flamethrower Mason Miller at the trade deadline. Pitching would make the Padres a tough out for the Cubs. The lineup is solid, featuring bats like Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis, Jr. Jackson Merrill has had an injury-plagued campaign, but the talent is electric. It's not hard to imagine him making noise in October. Add experienced bats in Xander Bogaerts, hit merchant Luis Arraez, and solid former Orioles Ramon Laureano and Ryan O'Hearn, and this would be a toss-up at best in a three-game series. The New York Mets seem to have a lock on the sixth seed. At this point, the Cubs are unlikely to face them in the first round. If the Phillies phalter (sorry) with the loss of Zach Wheeler and decline of Bryce Harper and Aaron Nola continuing, the positions could flip. My brain can't handle these permutations right now, though, so it seems like it's the Padres, then possibly the Dodgers. The time to worry about the Phillies or Mets is not now. The Padres could pass the Cubs, as they are only 1.0 game behind. This would be significant if you are just now learning that the entire series is in the higher seed's home park. Tom Ricketts is likely dreaming of this event; picture him swimming Scrooge McDuck-style through the piles of revenue this would generate. Surely he would repurpose the money earned from a Wild Card into the team next season, blowing past the luxury tax, right? Cub fans, you have permission to get excited. For the first true season since 2018, the Cubs are going to be in the playoffs. It will be a tough hill to climb, as it always is. Just keep this reality in mind the next time Counsell has a dumb lineup, Dansby Swanson leaves men on base, or a reliever blows a lead. Prediction: Feel free to keep receipts. The Brewers fade a little bit, but a 6.5-game lead in September keeps them in the division race. The Dodgers and Phillies round out the division winners. The Padres likely win the home field advantage vs. the Cubs, cursing Cub fans with a 10pm eastern start time, or it could be at 4:07, right during work! The Mets easily win the sixth seed. So, here's the Cubs' most likely scenarios: Either a home series vs. the Padres, or a long trip to San Diego for a best-of-three with this solid squad. A division win and a bye are probably out of reach at this point, but it is still in the realm of possibility. Enjoy the last month of the season! October awaits. View full article

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images As has been thoroughly discussed, covered, and screamed about on talk radio, Kyle Tucker did indeed have a fracture on his hand in June. Everyone knows that he's been scuffling. Consensus has not been achieved, however, on whom to be angry at during this saga. Jed Hoyer? Tucker himself? The training staff? There's a combination of that group to be considered, and a little bit of nuance needed—as there is in most things. Tucker chose to play, and the Cubs chose to let him. Both sides knew about the injury. The training staff is not to blame here. It seems as if the fracture was diagnosed, and the stakeholders were all notified. They really had little to do with the decision to continue to run Tucker out there. Tucker took an enormous risk here, one that (if you believe this injury is the root cause of his problems) could cost him hundreds of millions of dollars if he doesn't get his season back on track. It's not hard to see why he would want to continue playing. First of all, missing time with another injury after missing half of last season would give teams pause about his durability during a long-term contract. Second. he slashed .311/.404/.578 in June, after he was diagnosed with the fracture. With his best month of the season in progress, he obviously wanted to continue playing. To fully heal, a hairline fracture requires a splint and 6-8 weeks of rest, according to the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons. This timeline would have had Tucker shelved for the guts of June and July, and even then, there would have been residual stiffness and/or swelling. A hairline fracture is essentially a stress fracture, and the violence of a swing would irritate the area even after the bone healed. Of course, in hindsight, Tucker probably should have sat for at least two or three weeks. (Again, we can't know for sure how big a role the injury has played in his slump, but it seems implausible that it wasn't a major factor.) But who would have filled in? This is another piece of the puzzle. Depth has been an issue all year, with the team's bench producing shockingly little. The Cubs really could have used an all-purpose substitute—one who can hit lefties, play all across the outfield, and have generally solid production. When your prized right fielder needs time off, it would behoove a team to have a solid, productive option to plug in. Obviously, the team could (and perhaps should) have found a way to bring up Kevin Alcántara or Owen Caissie much sooner, to fill in for Tucker. They also could have retained Cody Bellinger this winter, which would have interfered with some of their other late-winter spending but given them a stopgap solution behind Tucker (this injury), Pete Crow-Armstrong (overuse and a lack of plate discipline) and Ian Happ (a difficult season, overall). But Mike Tauchman was the true whiff here. The left-handed bat signed a $1.95-million deal with the crosstown White Sox, and has been exactly what the Cubs needed. He's played all three outfield spots and is sporting a solid .787 OPS and 123 WRC+, 23% above league average. The Cubs decided they didn't want to spend something closer to $3 million in arbitration, and were left with Vidal Bruján as their sole backup in the outfield. This is a Jed Hoyer issue. When Bellinger was dealt, the money was supposed to be repurposed. It simply wasn't. Quality depth was not added to augment the lineup, and days off have not been available. This recent offensive downturn comes on the heels of a 26 games-in-27 days stretch, and the team embarks on a West Coast trip after playing five games in four days with the Brewers. Hoyer had more money to spend than he succeeded in spending, failing to land (among others) Alex Bregman. Having thus faltered, he also didn't promote Alcántara or Caissie to give Craig Counsell more viable ways to rest Tucker. A stretch like this was always the danger. So, whom should we be mad at? Well, probably nobody, if you want to preserve your mental health. But if you have ire that must go somewhere, it should be directed at the front office. Their failure to spend their allocated money to keep solid players left them with little option but to go along with Tucker's wishes to continue playing. As previously stated, it's a complicated issue. With Tauchman in the fold, the Cubs could have insisted that Tucker shut it down at the first sign that the injury was hurting his performance. But too soon, and the Cubs risked missing his best stretch of the season, and (in Tucker's perspective) costing him multiple millions. It's possible this was an unavoidable problem, but that won't satisfy anyone—and it shouldn't, either. Tell me in the comments. Who should we cast our blame upon? View full article

Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images In baseball, as in the general state of human existence, reputations can be hard to shake. Whether good or bad, what other people think of you sticks, well beyond the period where it may apply. The Cubs' defense is no exception. Around the league, they have a tremendous rep with the glove. Does it hold up? Statcast OAA, or Outs Above Average, was the inspiration for this article. Pete Crow-Armstrong (18) and Nico Hoerner (11) have stellar numbers. However, no other Cub has registered more than two. Of the regulars, only Dansby Swanson has a positive number, and even his is reduced from last season. Gold Glove winners Ian Happ and Kyle Tucker have a negative value, as does youngster Matt Shaw. What in the name of Clark the Cub is going on with these defensive numbers? DANSBY SWANSON Well, this is disturbing, isn’t it? An average bat, paid handsomely for his glove, needs to be that glove guy. Fangraphs' defensive value ranks him as the 35th-best defensive player in baseball, a far cry from the top ten he usually is. Swanson’s nearest shortstop peer is Corey Seager on their metric. To the more traditionally-minded fan, his six errors lead the team. Of course, defensive metrics in a 100 game or so sample aren’t wholly reliable, but one seems to be confirming the eye test: Dansby Swanson has seen his range diminish. In 2024, Statcast ranked him in the 98th percentile for defense; he’s down to the 69th this season overall. His range is reduced 18 points by the same system. Baseball Reference’s Total Zone Rating has decreased from 17 two seasons ago to a -1 this season, and his Range Factor per Nine is the second-lowest of his career. Unfortunately, Swanson cannot explain his slight decline last season on his abdominal injury. He might just, as he enters his 30s, be slowing down. He’s still a heady, sure-handed shortstop, but with eight shortstops ahead of him statistically, he’s no longer a Gold Glove one. CORNER OUTFIELDERS This one is not as concerning. OAA does not have a positional adjustment, so Kyle Tucker and Ian Hall in this statistic are being graded on the same curve as center fielders. Fangraphs, who does scale by position, has both of these players as above average. DRS also looks favorably upon these two, For left and right field, Kyle Tucker and Ian Happ are just fine defensively. CATCHERS Carson Kelly has some solid metrics as well, but is knocked down for his pitch framing. Anecdotally, I’m writing this watching Kelly catch, and his pitch framing just seems like it does more harm than good. His glove moves farther than any catchers' I have seen this year. How can the umpire call a close pitch when it’s being jerked into the zone that far? It used to be pitch framing was subtle, like holding the pitch and maybe, just maybe moving the ball subtly into the zone. Kelly is too extreme with his framing, and the metrics support it. It’s not easy to measure a catcher and his defensive impact, and he’s been solid in other areas. Just stop jerking that glove around, Carson! So, there’s no need to fret about your viewing acumen. Your eyes aren’t deceiving you. The Cubs actually are a good defensive team, Pete Crow-Armstrong is a top defender in the game, and all is well in the field. Enjoy a top flight defensive team, and hope Swanson can find that missing range for October. View full article

Image courtesy of Thieres Rabelo The Cubs' lineup in July was a bit of a whack-a-mole. One guy would heat up, and another would slump. Despite losing a share of first place in the NL Central, a 14-9 record on the month is still solid, and the position group top to bottom is as good as there is in the league. Despite a middling trade deadline performance, the architect of this team was extended for several years. Whatever you think of Jed Hoyer, he will be the head of this ship. So, each person for this month was selected first and foremost for his July performance, but also for how their performance helped Hoyer get his extension. 3rd Place: Nico Hoerner (.284/.347/.375, 107 wRC+) Hoerner was a steadying force in the lineup. He’s now the leadoff hitter against lefties, and slashed .284/.347/.375 in July. Power obviously isn’t part of the profile, but extreme bat control is. All season long, Hoerner has been at the top of the percentile rankings for strikeout and whiff rate. He simply has a tremendous understanding of the strike zone to pair with his otherworldly hand-eye coordination, and surely is frustrating to pitch to. One of the first big moves in the incremental rebuild that was never called a rebuild centered around Hoerner. He’s a solid shortstop. Good, even. In 2022, he was worth a whopping 13 Outs Above Average, which gave him significant value towards his 4.2 WAR. His main position that year was short, and the Cubs could have continued with a solid shortstop for years to come. But opportunity arose to sign Dansby Swanson, a superior defender, to an (expensive) deal. Nico slid to second, and has played Gold Glove-caliber defense since, winning it in 2023. Jed Hoyer built the best middle-infield defense in the game. Months like July show why he was smart to do so. 2nd Place: Carson Kelly (.290/.370/.581, 162 wRC+) Alright Carson, settle down. We all thought you were going to collapse, and for a bit you did. But then, to quote Dumb and Dumber, you go and “totally redeem yourself!” A 3.2 WAR for Kelly this season is one of the many “over-performing projections” scenarios Jed Hoyer has hit on for this year. What a great signing for the Cubs, especially given how unexpected this performance has been in Miguel Amaya's stead. This incredible season from Kelly is emblematic of Hoyer’s hot free agent streak last offseason. Kelly has had a career year already, regardless of how he finishes. Matthew Boyd and Caleb Thielbar similarly have contributed with great baseball. Confidence is due to Hoyer as we go forward (at least in regard to bargain bin free agent signings), and the benefit of the doubt will be given by this writer. MVPete: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.308/.347/.637, 171 wRC+) Should we just rename the award at this point? It’s simply incredible, and he’s not slowing down. Do you see that slugging percentage? .637? It’s been a pleasure to be proved wrong by Crow-Armstrong. The position players have been ridden hard this season, and will continue to play as many innings as their bodies allowed. Willi Castro could provide rest to most of them, and is insurance against the Annual Seiya Suzuki Oblique Injury or some other calamity. Still, Craig Counsell is doing his best Tom Thibodeau impression with his starters this year. It's not entirely relevant to his brilliant month, but the fact that Javier Baez was dealt for Crow-Armstrong still stands as the best move the Cubs have made in a long time. The teardown in 2021 is still a flashpoint, but this one acquisition has been a success. Another oft-forgotten trade was Daniel Palencia coming in return for Andrew Chafin. Not every trade has returned that level of value, or any value for that matter. That’s not how teardowns work, and why they aren’t an enjoyable part of the fan experience. Tom Ricketts, however, is not completely opposed to the idea. In his mind, the return is already worth the sell-off. More than any other move made during his tenure, Hoyer earned his extension with this one. What do you think of our list? Are there any other players that you think deserve recognition for their excellent July performances? View full article

Image courtesy of © Geoff Burke-Imagn Images The trade deadline has come and gone. Our site has done a great job keeping current on the deals and the individual implications of each deal. This piece purports to update the depth chart implications. Willi Castro was not acquired to start. He will spell Matt Shaw, and act as insurance if he regresses to his pre-July level. Castro will also slot as the top backup at second base, and if Dansby Swanson needs a breather, Nico Hoerner can slide over with less of a drop-off. Castro is also a hedge against an outfield injury; he’s played the corner spots this year and even center in the past. In summary, Castro has become the top backup at four positions. Here’s how each position stands. LINEUP Catcher: Carson Kelly and Miguel Amaya (soon), Reese Maguire will lose out First Base: Michael Busch starts, Justin Turner against tough lefties Second Base: Nico Hoerner, Willi Castro top backup Shortstop: Dansby Swanson and Hoerner Third Base: Matt Shaw, Castro if he falters Left Field: Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki first backup Center Field: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Castro taking over from Suzuki as the backup you hope to use sparingly Right Field: Kyle Tucker, Suzuki backing up Designated Hitter: The oft-mentioned Suzuki, Turner, Castro Break Glass in case of emergency: Jon Berti ROTATION Shota Imanaga Matthew Boyd Michael Soroka Cade Horton Colin Rea The Cubs surely hope that Jameson Taillon and Javier Assad make their long-awaited return and supplement this group. Already, though, moving Brown back out of the rotation is a win, effected by the arrival of Soroka. Between Soroka, Taillon and Assad, the team will try to nudge Rea into more relief work down the stretch, but also to manage Horton's innings total. BULLPEN Ryan Pressly is now but a piece of Cubs obscurist lore, and will surely be a low percentage answer in Immaculate Grid. Closer: Daniel Palencia Wait. Full stop. It would be a fool's errand to predict the pecking order of this bullpen. Craig Counsell will deploy them in a manner reflecting their current performance. Andrew Kittridge and Trevor Rogers will join the stable of mid-30s relievers on expiring deals the Cubs have built their bullpen around. I would expect Brad Keller to man the eighth as often as anyone else, but roles will be fluid. It wasn't the seismic trade deadline many hoped for, but Castro, Soroka, Kittredge and Rogers will take the places of the four lowest-utility players: Vidal Bruján, Ben Brown, Pressly and Gavin Hollowell. They also push a few more of the players who have been stretched all season into roles where they can be more successful. The functionality of their roster rose sharply, although its potential to blaze a trail of light through October didn't change much. View full article

Image courtesy of © David Banks-Imagn Images As you've no doubt heard by now, Ryne Sandberg passed away at age 65, finally succumbing to cancer. The Hall of Famer, nine-time Gold Glove winner, ten-time All-Star, 1984 MVP, and franchise icon will be missed as an integral part of canon lore for millions of Cub fans. Our @Matthew Trueblood covered his legenary career well, and you should read his outstanding tribute to gain an appreciation of what Sandberg was as a player. This is not that type of article. This is purely a tribute from a fan. Growing up in Kenosha, Wisconsin, WGN was available over the airwaves, and that’s where Ryne Sandberg became a part of my story. I was seven when the Cubs stormed the NL in 1984 and, pre-lights, was baby sat by Harry CarAy and Steve Stone. They would always point out this MVP season Sandberg was having, and thus, a lifelong fan was born. It is impossible to quantify what he meant, and will always mean to Cubs fans. Here are three stories from my life that show my version of this. Hopefully, it can stir memories of Ryno for you. August 1989: On my birthday, the 23rd of this month (yes 23 is my favorite number), I was in day two of my new school. Day two was ROUGH. No part of me wanted to walk to that place, where I was convinced everyone was staring at the new kid. So, I donned my big head caricature Sandberg t-shirt, manned up, and went since truancy was illegal. With my best shirt, representing the confidence of the star of a playoff-bound team, I walked in with the strut I’d been practicing. “Nice shirt,” some kid said, and from there, I found several Cub fans and fellow baseball card collectors, and I was off, That afternoon, I was surprised by my parents with the only childhood cake I can remember. A baseball diamond, complete with the Sandberg Starting Lineup figure sliding into second. Even though it was out of the packaging and lost all of its value, I still have the figure, and the memories of that day. I made friends in a new school and had a great birthday, and Sandberg communal fandom was the reason. March, 1995: Finally, my senior year, I made varsity. Yes, I played second, mainly because of Ryno, but fortuitous given my noodle arm. Once again, my childhood insecurities manifested, and I looked to gain respect from my teammates, proving that I belonged. When it came time to pick a jersey number, the good ones were taken... except 23. Snatched it up, heard a couple cracks about Michael Jordan from the coach. “Nah, Sandberg” I responded. Several nods of respect from my teammates, coach gave an approving smile. My reputation was secure. If someone was a Sandberg fan, that person had to be a heady, reliable player. I mean, it wasn’t enough to get me playing time, but man, was I a reliable practice player, and when I made a smart play, coach would always make a Sandberg comment, even though he was taking his gap year. And yes, I imagined myself at Wrigley, manning second base, every single practice. Fast forward to August 2013. Now married with two young kids and a very understanding wife, I made the trek to Cooperstown with my dad and brother to celebrate Dad’s 60th birthday. Of course, before any of us could tour the museum, we had to go to the famous plaques. Not many people get to see their favorite athlete in any sport inducted. I don’t remember all the exhibits, but I do vividly recall the picture of Ryno and Wade Boggs on their big day, and of course, the first floor plaque. I bought but one souvenir that day, a postcard of Sandberg. It remains framed at my desk, in the center of my sports memorabilia. It towers in stature if not size over my Jon Scheyer autographed photo and even my framed cereal box of RizzOs. And it’s been a teaching tool. East Carolina University and their stellar baseball program (Jeff Hoffman, Alec Burleson, and Gavin Williams are notable alumni) is huge in the school I work in. Kids are naturally drawn to my decorations, and as a result, Sandberg is a go-t0 legend in MLB The Show for all of them. I delight I hearing about his console pixelated exploits, and am doing my small part to keep his legend alive. Thanks for reading this self-indulgent article. I wrote this to sort out my feelings and memories of Sandberg, and also hope to trigger similar memories for you guys. Would love to see some in the comments. Now to set up a Strat-O-Matic series, 1984 Cubs vs. 1989. Let’s get to it! View full article

ESPN posted a trade deadline piece, with many options and savvy moves posited. Cub fans can skip ahead to the juicy part: Could the Cubs be interested in Shane Bieber? Bieber, for all intents and purposes, missed the 2024 season (2 starts) with Tommy John surgery. After tearing up the lower levels to the tune of 14 strikeouts in seven innings, he threw 57 pitches in four innings, no walks, seven strikeouts, and eight whiffs in his latest appearance. His stuff seems ready, Bieber would be a flier similar to Matthew Boyd for Cleveland last season. He would not be an innings eater, but could be a lightning bolt similar to Rich Harden in 2008. Keep an eye on this possibility. View full rumor