Is the Cubs' Defense as Good as Advertised?

In baseball, as in the general state of human existence, reputations can be hard to shake. Whether good or bad, what other people think of you sticks, well beyond the period where it may apply. The Cubs' defense is no exception. Around the league, they have a tremendous rep with the glove. Does it hold up?

Statcast OAA, or Outs Above Average, was the inspiration for this article. Pete Crow-Armstrong (18) and Nico Hoerner (11) have stellar numbers. However, no other Cub has registered more than two. Of the regulars, only Dansby Swanson has a positive number, and even his is reduced from last season. Gold Glove winners Ian Happ and Kyle Tucker have a negative value, as does youngster Matt Shaw. 

What in the name of Clark the Cub is going on with these defensive numbers?

DANSBY SWANSON

Well, this is disturbing, isn’t it? An average bat, paid handsomely for his glove, needs to be that glove guy. Fangraphs' defensive value ranks him as the 35th-best defensive player in baseball, a far cry from the top ten he usually is. Swanson’s nearest shortstop peer is Corey Seager on their metric. To the more traditionally-minded fan, his six errors lead the team. 

Of course, defensive metrics in a 100 game or so sample aren’t wholly reliable, but one seems to be confirming the eye test: Dansby Swanson has seen his range diminish. In 2024, Statcast ranked him in the 98th percentile for defense; he’s down to the 69th this season overall. His range is reduced 18 points by the same system. Baseball Reference’s Total Zone Rating has decreased from 17 two seasons ago to a -1 this season, and his Range Factor per Nine is the second-lowest of his career.

Unfortunately, Swanson cannot explain his slight decline last season on his abdominal injury. He might just, as he enters his 30s, be slowing down. He’s still a heady, sure-handed shortstop, but with eight shortstops ahead of him statistically, he’s no longer a Gold Glove one.

CORNER OUTFIELDERS

This one is not as concerning. OAA does not have a positional adjustment, so Kyle Tucker and Ian Hall in this statistic are being graded on the same curve as center fielders. Fangraphs, who does scale by position, has both of these players as above average. DRS also looks favorably upon these two, 

For left and right field, Kyle Tucker and Ian Happ are just fine defensively. 

CATCHERS

Carson Kelly has some solid metrics as well, but is knocked down for his pitch framing. Anecdotally, I’m writing this watching Kelly catch, and his pitch framing just seems like it does more harm than good. His glove moves farther than any catchers' I have seen this year. How can the umpire call a close pitch when it’s being jerked into the zone that far?

It used to be pitch framing was subtle, like holding the pitch and maybe, just maybe moving the ball subtly into the zone. Kelly is too extreme with his framing, and the metrics support it. It’s not easy to measure a catcher and his defensive impact, and he’s been solid in other areas. Just stop jerking that glove around, Carson!

So, there’s no need to fret about your viewing acumen. Your eyes aren’t deceiving you. The Cubs actually are a good defensive team, Pete Crow-Armstrong is a top defender in the game, and all is well in the field. Enjoy a top flight defensive team, and hope Swanson can find that missing range for October.