Cody Bellinger Opts In To Contract, Will Remain a Chicago Cub In 2025

First of all, the impact on the Cubs and their budget. Tom Ricketts has stated the Cubs will live around the luxury tax. With the Cubs apparently accidentally going over the tax last season, likely, they will not want to exceed the tax this season unless they are in contention. Without arbitration tenders available, their space under the tax is $58 million, according to Spotrac. Several players, such as Isaac Paredes, Justin Steele, and Nate Pearson, will surely be tendered, and projections by MLB Trade Rumors project a final total for the Cubs at 40 million dollars under the luxury tax.

Of course, fans do not need to care about how much money the Cubs spend. The luxury tax is designed to help small market teams compete, not to add money to the coffers of franchises in major markets. Tom Ricketts, though, has set his limits, and $40 million is not enough to add the impact bat, high-level pitcher, and reliable relief arms the team has lacked for years. Jed Hoyer is surely not pleased to have this loss of flexibility in his lame-duck season.

On the field, this is not the worst-case scenario. Cody Bellinger slashed a solid .266/.325/.426, good for a 109 WRC+ and 2.2 WAR. He's not the reason the Cubs are stuck on 83 wins. Defensively, his value is declining, and he'll mostly be confined to right field and first base. Bellinger looks to be a lock for the third spot in the Cubs lineup. Health, while having eleven injuries in the past four years, is also a concern, but he did play 130 games last season.

The opportunity cost for Bellinger's return is possibly high. Kevin Alcantara and Owen Caissie will languish in Iowa for a second season with no openings on the roster for consistent at-bats. The Cubs also will not be able to afford a true masher for the middle of their lineup; they'll have to hope for Bellinger to repeat his 2023.

This probably isn't the news the Cubs wanted, but it is nice to have some clarity on the offseason and the Cubs' path going forward. Congratulations are due to the Bellinger household and the generational wealth they've just locked into.