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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
    1000% this. Especially with the Sox finally becoming as fun as they have
  2. Bertz
    Why yes I will take our 20 year old infielder with 70 grade raw power cutting his K rate by a third thank you so much
  3. Bertz
  4. Bertz
  5. Bertz
    Klaw Obviously no at 23 bu a name to stash for later
  6. Bertz
    FWIW if I were doing a farm ranking today it'd look something like this (not necessarily in order within tiers) Tier 1: Hartshorn, Rojas Tier 2: Wiggins, Conrad, Ayers Tier 3: Kepley, Sanders, Wing, Caple Tier 4: McGwire, Beck, Southisene, Cepeda, Reid Tier 5 would be where it really opens up and I don't feel like listing every name, but a combo of lower ceiling guys closer to the majors (Long, Triantos, Trice) and higher ceiling guys a million miles away (Lovich, Mule, the complex league guys, etc.) Our first rounder will almost certainly slot into that Tier 2, even if it's someone they underslot. From there, especially with the comp pick, they should end up with 5ish guys across Tiers 3&4, ideally three of each. Broadly IMO a 7 figure bonus and a draft ranking in the 50-100 range would be T3, a $500K+ bonus and a draft ranking in the 100-200 range would be a T4. We all have preferences in terms of demographics and player styles, but just broadly from a value standpoint this is what the expectation should be IMO. And with Kantrovitz's talk about just trying to add wins, I presume this is roughly how the team is thinking about it.
  7. Bertz
    On the one hand the big league team is good, the farm is in pretty good shape, catcher in particular is not a huge org worry in the short or long term, what better time to take a big swing for a potential super-duper star? On the other hand I thought Kantrovitz laid out a pretty compelling argument about banking some wins to allow yourself to load up on pitching. Feels like a guy whose hit tool is this problematic is not setting that floor? On yet another hand Mike Zunino had a deceptively good career and that feels like a very attainable bar to clear....so maybe he is high floor?
  8. Bertz
    Longenhagen has you covered
  9. Bertz
    I think that 1st simply gassed him. He was 96.6 in the 1st and hovering just over 95 in the 2nd and 3rd. I would expect it to take another couple starts before he's back at something resembling full strength.
  10. Bertz
    For sure, there's a good chicken/egg type question about the Cubs pitching dev. I was looking at some of the recent draft classes and the slot values of the pitchers they took and it felt pretty good on a rate/efficiency basis? But is that a positive sign they should scale that out, or a scary sign that even when being pretty choosy and deliberate with their opportunities they're not completely crushing it? There's also the Zombro of it all, decent argument that we still don't know, good or bad, how the team is at developing minor league pitching since most guys in the org were acquired and developed either under Breslow or in the Breslow/Zombro interim.
  11. Bertz
  12. Bertz
    Greene is awesome but was clearly rusty his first outing. Hopefully it takes one more outing before he finds his footing. We tend to either whoop his ass or he whoops ours, not a lot of 5 IP 2ER type of outings.
  13. Bertz
    Yeah each of those guys in isolation I was like "okay yeah fair enough I get it". But I think you've gotta get at least one college SP in these top 3 picks. There's usually a bit more supply than demand on HS kids but if you wait til after pick 100 to grab a college arm you're guys with at least one major limitation I'm okay going under slot for a bat at 23, we just can't keep punting on pitching. Like I mentioned above if you dont take a college SP with one of those top 3 picks you're probably not getting a really good one. I think, considering the extra comp pick, we need to leave this draft with 4 pitchers who are unequivocally in our top 30, plus the usual assortment Coppola/Jerzembeck types who have plenty of upside but just as many warts. And especially if we're cutting a deal at 23 I want something like the 2026 equivalent of Jaxon Wiggins and the 2026 equivalent of Kaleb Wing as part of our haul. Wings are easy to get in the middle rounds if you've got extra cash to burn but college SPs get picked over fast.
  14. Bertz
    https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7435150/2026/07/10/mlb-draft-final-mock-draft-grady-emerson-vahn-lackey-roch-cholowsky/?source=user_shared_article&unlocked_article_code=1.wlA.f2Uz.JQSXy1NIei7y&smid=ta-android-share KLaw's last mock still has the Cubs taking Rose, but also seconds Hughes as a fit
  15. Bertz
    If thia team doesn't take a pitcher with one of their top 3 picks I will turn into the shocker I swear (Willits is actually a pretty fun 3rd/4th rounder though tbh)
  16. Bertz
    Coming into tonight had a 128 wRC+ and 7 dongs since June 5th I really wonder if he was a bit hobbled in April/May. Some team with nothing going on at 1B should take a flyer. Arizona for Ginkel?
  17. Bertz
    Aaron. Bummer is not pitching well, but he's sitting around 92 which is honestly probably more important.
  18. Bertz
    The Cespedes BBQ guys are not the most venerable draft experts, but they're good writers and are pretty keyed in on college BB so they've got some perspective. Feels like especially if you're jumping in at the 11th hour this would be the writeup I'd personally recommend
  19. Bertz
    I'm going to need Conrad and this new Jose Silva character in the lineup together please and thank you I see Derik Alcantara is back too, curious if there's any improvement there that predicated that. Because it's definitely not popping on his ACL slash line
  20. Bertz
    Ummm....I think I love this idea? 1. There are very few bats that upgrade this lineup meaningfully enough to be noticeable without just robbing Peter to pay Paul on defense, but Trout threads that needle 2. The outfield is in an awkward spot this winter where it *needs* a starter but you don't want to block our higher end prospects in '28 and beyond with just a guy. Mike Trout will either be an impact player on the field or out of the way in the infirmary 3. Trout's contract is bad but not completely underwater, so you defray the cost of Detmers significantly but this shouldn't be an albatross we're taking on 4. It's Mike horsefeathering Trout! I had recently started thinking avout Byron Buxton with similar rationale in mind but I like this a lot more.
  21. Bertz
    Thornton doing what he's done with that strikeout rate is completely unsustainable, full stop. You would need a groundball rate probably north of 70% to get away with those K/BB numbers on a consistent basis. I think if you want some signs of optimism and a hint as to why Counsell's given him more leash than you'd think, I think it comes down to two things: 1. He's probably getting bad luck on the strikeout front. His contact, chase, and first strike rates are all pretty average. He should almost certainly have a strikeout rate over 20% rather than the 12% hes stuck on. I don't know that it totally cancels out the BABIP luck but it certainly undercuts it significantly 2. The stuff is ticking up as the season goes along. Over the last month or so his velo is now sitting north of 95 consistently and both stuff metrics are arrow up accordingly. Now these numbers don't indicate some secret stuff-monster, but they do paint the picture of a fairly generic middle reliever. And given the nature of the injury he's coming back from I think it's reasonable to think the more recent vintage of Thornton is real, and maybe there's even a bit more in the tank as he re-adds strength He's not great or anything, but I'm no longer fearing the worst when he comes in. I suspect he does not survive the roster crunch over the next month, but he's fine to run out there in the meantime.
  22. Bertz
    I'm curious if this was Rea's last outing in the rotation. Taillon’s slated to return the first turn through after the break. Assad and Rea aren't that different from each other true talent wise, but Assad is pitching much better than Rea lately (even if he's not actually pitching well).
  23. Bertz
    LMG can rejoin Tenn after the ASB and to free up space Beck can make his way to Iowa
  24. Bertz
    I assumed with him playing yesterday it was going to be another week and they wanted him to string a few more back-to-backs together Yay!
  25. Bertz
    Aside from hitting well at the cape Robbins doesn't feel like this FO's type of guy. They like athletes and they like the hit tool.
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