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Bertz

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Everything posted by Bertz

  1. Bertz
  2. Bertz
    Like others I like Detmers. He feels like the closest analogue to where Cabrera/Gore/Ryan were at this time last year. I like getting someone with control because like last year you need them now and you already know you need to trade for a SP next winter too. And with the lockout this winter I'm not sure you can just wait it out like you could a year ago. Sonny Gray's my guy as far as rentals, though I hope we don't have to settle for a rental. Pie in the sky...Chase Dollander? He'd cost a shitload, but Depodesta's probably clear-eyed about how much farther he has to go in this rebuild and the odds of Dollander surviving through all of that. And because they are that bereft of talent a 5 for 1 is probably much more on the table than it might be with some other partners.
  3. Bertz
    All teams are streaky, not just the Cubs
  4. Bertz
    Yeah after clearing up some of the infield logjam Kepley sould be next on the sell high list. To your point it's not totally fair but the existence of PCA does materially impact how much value he can provide here. I don't know if it's bad swing decisions/passivity or if it's good swing decisions but a swing that's mediocre. I think you look at what he's doing and you can see paths to something like Brett Gardner, Steven Kwan, or Nico Hoerner. But I think you can also see what he's doing and imagine some Sal Frelick/Chad Durbin type who has a little success and implodes once pitchers start challening him consistently. The defense and baserunning provide some floor even in that scenario, but I'm nervous enough about the bat that when I rank guys in the system I definitely have Kepley much closer to 10 than 1 despite the production to date.
  5. Bertz
    I think you have to be a little worried he's not hitting. Like his offense is plus because he's walking like crazy, but when you make him actually swing the bat he's been...fine. And better pitchers will force him to do much more. Kepley has an 86% contact rate, that's very good but it's not elite. He's hot a 45% groundball rate which is high but not quite problematic. He's got 14 XBHs including two dongs. Jeff McNeil, who the big club just saw, has an 86% contact rate, 45% groundball rate, and 11 XBHs including two dongs. Now good CF defense and a 50+ steal pace would changs the calculus even there, but it's worth noting that it's not all sunshine and rainbows even with his production so far.
  6. Bertz
    It's still a tiny sample, today makes 9 games, but Eli Lovich breaking out the instant Hartshorn got promoted is one of my favorite stories on the farm this year. What a weird season, he started off really well, then went into a deeeeep slump, and now he's looking amazing.
  7. Bertz
    The spring breakout game with the huge promise but the wild inconsistency *even within an inning* was fun and exciting. Now he's consistently throwing strikes and, while we don't have pitch tracking, seemingly having fewer dips in stuff. It's only been 2.5 months. Really exciting.
  8. Bertz
    Matt Shaw is rehabbing with Iowa. If he was a full time guy Id assume he'd be back at Wrigley on Friday but given he could use some ABs I wonder if he spends a full week down there.
  9. Bertz
    He gave up 1 run over 15 innings in his three starts prior to getting called up. He's got 37 starts at Iowa in his career. I don't see any developmental point to him being at Iowa. Like I agree it's ultimately a confidence issue but IMO you break through that with the Ben Brown playbook. Throw him at the end of the pen in long relief, slowly ratcheting up the leverage as he earns more rope. It probably won't progress as quickly as it did for Brown but that's okay.
  10. Bertz
    Rolison should go back to Iowa. The pixie dust has clearly worn off there, and with Milner looking fixed and Thielbar healthy he's been relegated to garbage time. Even if you don't like Wicks the team is better served with a legitimate long guy. And frankly I don't think Jordan Wicks optimism takes a ton of mental gymnastics.
  11. Bertz
    Almost certainly is coming up for Wicks, which annoys me.
  12. Bertz
    Yeah homerun rates are mostly noise but even level-setting that the xFIP you site shows he's still been very bad. I think he goes on the IL when Boyd is back. The team shouldn't DFA any warm arm but he clearly can't keep going every 5 days like this. What's been most interesting to me is he's gotten his 2025 velo back over the last few starts and not only has it not helped it's made things worse.
  13. Bertz
    This will be the Cubs' fifth series of the year against a team that is as of today under .500
  14. Bertz
    Oh and Devers became a star bat post WS, he had a 90 wRC+ in '18
  15. Bertz
    Turner and Bogaerts were star caliber players but not star caliber bats. I thought our problem was we needed a star caliber bat?
  16. Bertz
  17. Bertz
    This explains a lot
  18. Bertz
    We know the Angels like close to the majors prospects too so if you're wanting to use the Shaws and Alcantaras of the world instead of the Hartshorns and Conrads they're probably a good partner.
  19. Bertz
    The disconnect is between things you find aesthetically pleasing and things that impact results.
  20. Bertz
    How is 1st in defense and 6th in runs scored not balanced?
  21. Bertz
    Sonny Gray had a pretty rough start to his season but since he came off the IL he's been pretty vintage. He's also got a pretty hefty salary this season, so you could probably get a deal done without absurd prospect cost.
  22. Bertz
    Busch and PCA are both currently projected to match or exceed what they did last year. Seiya Suzuki was worth 2.6 WAR last year.
  23. Bertz
    They're in last place in what is probably still the worst division in baseball and Skubal/Mize/Torres all walk at the end of the year. I'd guess they won't because of that aforementioned division but there's a decent argument that they should blow it to smithereens and be open for business on anyone but Mcgonigle.
  24. Bertz
    Since the start of '24 when Greene broke out he has a 129 wRC+. Seiya has a 127 over that same period.
  25. Bertz
    Riley Greene is left handed Seiya Suzuki, which is not a bad thing the winter before we lose three veteran corner outfielders, but is a far cry from some mythical "elite" bat that would make the offense magically not streaky.
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