Sam Caulder

Michael Busch looked like a potential star after his breakout 2025 season, but his production took a significant step backward this year. Now, the Cubs have to figure out whether 2026 was simply a down year or a sign that we’ve already seen his peak. View full video

Image courtesy of Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images The Cubs’ season has come to an end, in disappointing fashion. Unfortunately, that word can also be used to describe the 2026 season of first baseman Michael Busch. After receiving MVP votes after an exceptional 2025 campaign, Busch took a step (or two) backward this season. There were some positives to take away from his year, but the overall numbers suggest the Cubs may have to start wondering whether last season was the beginning of something special, or simply an outlier. In 2025, Busch hit .261 with a .343 on-base percentage and a very strong .523 slugging average. He hit 34 home runs, which ranked sixth among all National League hitters. At the time, it looked like the Cubs had a star on their hands. But a lot can change in a year. This season, Busch’s batting average dropped to .242. His on-base percentage actually climbed to .352 (thanks in large part to a significant increase in his walk rate), but he slugged just .393. For a first baseman, that's anemic. A .745 OPS will certainly play, and with a 106 OPS+, he was still an above-average hitter this season. But it’s still a massive step backward from what Busch did a year ago, and some of the underlying numbers indicate that his production should have been even worse. Busch’s expected batting average was just .233, which puts him in the 23rd percentile among all big-league hitters. A year ago, there weren’t many hitters who punished baseballs quite like Busch did. His average exit velocity and barrel rate were both in the 90th percentile or higher, while his hard-hit rate was also in the top quartile of the league. When he got his bat on the ball, good things happened. That just wasn’t the case this season. His barrel rate dropped all the way to the 60th percentile, while both his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate fell below league-average marks. He went from consistently making some of the best contact in baseball to making relatively ordinary contact, and that difference showed up in the results. Someone like Busch, who doesn’t have the fastest bat in the world, needs to lean into his pull side to be as efficient as possible when it comes to producing power. That’s exactly what we saw from him in 2025, when both his fly-ball rate and pull rate reached career-high levels. When he was getting the ball in the air and pulling it, he was extremely dangerous. This year, though, he was getting on top of the ball more often, and his pull rate dropped to a career-low 40%. He still managed to hit 20 home runs, but it’s pretty clear when looking at the numbers that the decline in his pull-side power had a major impact on his overall production. I've done quite a bit of bashing so far in this article, so I feel like I should note that there were some positives, too. His walk rate jumped from 9.5% to 13%, which is a significant improvement—and something that could be especially valuable if he can pair it with the power production we saw in 2025. He also played strong defense at first base, giving the Cubs value on both sides of the ball. But offensively, his 2026 season lines up much more closely with his career numbers outside of that incredible 2025 campaign. Maybe 2025 was the real Michael Busch finally breaking out. Maybe this season was simply a down year for a player who still has plenty of room to grow. There’s really no way to know for sure right now. What we do know is that Busch showed us a very high ceiling last season. If he can get back to pulling the ball in the air like he did in 2025 while maintaining the double-digit walk rate he posted this year, there’s still "All-Star" written all over his offensive profile. But until we see him do that again, it’s fair to wonder if we’ve already seen Busch at his peak—and whether his decline phase is worthy of a locked-in lineup spot next year. View full article

Image courtesy of David Banks-Imagn Images Game 1 of the Wild Card Round is in the books. Let's just say I'm thankful that Game 2 is right around the corner. If the Chicago Cubs are going to force a Game 3 and remain alive in the Wild Card Round, they’re going to need a much more inspired performance than what we saw from them last night. Chicago was shut out, managed just six hard-hit balls, and struck out 11 times. Now, their season is officially on the line. So, with that in mind, here are a few specific things the Cubs will have to do differently tonight if they want to remain afloat and force a rubber match. Cubs Must Be More Aggressive Early In Game 2 For one, I think the Cubs need to be more aggressive early in counts. The Padres’ pitching staff, and Michael King specifically, was challenging hitters with a lot of fastballs during the first couple of pitches of at-bats. And Chicago didn’t offer at them. That’s not to say I don’t understand the approach. There’s certainly value in making the opposing starter work. Running up his pitch count and forcing the Padres to get into their bullpen earlier than they’d prefer can be a good strategy, especially in a playoff game. But that concept wound up failing as King took a no-hitter into the seventh inning, and the Cubs never really made him uncomfortable. Now, with their season on the line, they have to adjust. I’m looking for Chicago to be more aggressive early in counts tonight, especially if Padres starter Nick Pivetta gives them something to hit. And, frankly, with a fresh Padres bullpen regardless, running up Pivetta’s pitch count doesn’t matter nearly as much as it did coming into Game 1. This team needs to make something happen early in at-bats. Kevin Gausman Needs to Give Cubs Length Another thing that absolutely needs to happen is that the Cubs need to get a strong start out of Kevin Gausman. Matthew Boyd made it through just four innings in Game 1, forcing four different relievers to throw at least 16 pitches. Even with a deeper bullpen than they had during the regular season, Chicago can't afford to ask that group to cover another significant chunk of a game tonight. If Gausman can’t make it more than four innings, that’s a problem. Now, his workload could be monitored regardless; the right-hander is coming off a left shoulder injury he suffered last week, so the Cubs may have a limit in mind before he even takes the mound. But even if he’s capped at five or six innings, they need to be quality frames that limit chaos on the basepaths. There are still plenty of options available in the bullpen. Daniel Palencia and Ryan Zeferjahn are both available, and it wouldn’t shock me to see someone like Clay Holmes or Shota Imanaga work in relief in an elimination game. But those guys need a lead to work with. What Gausman gives the Cubs tonight will have a big part in determining whether they have one. Cubs Can't Let Nick Pivetta Get Settled And then, lastly, the Cubs need to jump on Nick Pivetta. I mean, my gosh. King was no-hitting this lineup through six innings last night, and the Padres’ pitching staff ultimately shut Chicago out. As I noted, the Cubs struck out 11 times as a team in Game 1, and just six of the 20 balls they put in play were hard-hit. That’s obviously not exactly a recipe for success, particularly against a Padres team just dying to get to the back end of their dominant bullpen. That last part is especially important because of what awaits Chicago if the game is close. San Diego has some fresh high-leverage arms available after Mason Miller, Adrián Morejón and Bradgley Rodriguez all avoided pitching in Game 1. That means the Cubs are likely to see at least a couple of those guys tonight. And if those relievers are entering the game with a lead, that’s not exactly promising for our hopes of extending the series. The Cubs need to create some separation before San Diego can turn things over to its best relievers. View full article

The Cubs have several options for their biggest postseason bullpen moments, including Jacob Webb, Daniel Palencia, Aaron Civale, Ryan Rolison, and Ryan Zeferjahn. But who should get the ball when the game is on the line? View full video

Ian Happ and Tyrone Taylor have very different offensive splits, but their strengths could complement each other perfectly. The Cubs may have an ideal left-field platoon for October. View full video

Image courtesy of Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images There’s a common saying in the sports world: defense wins championships. And even in what’s been a down offensive year for him, Ian Happ has displayed no shortage of defensive prowess. As a matter of fact, this has been Happ’s best defensive season ever. His 81st percentile fielding run value is the highest mark he’s ever posted, and he’s been a quality defender in left field in terms of his range. He may not have a rocket launcher attached to his right arm, but he knows how to make the most with what he's got, as shown by his elite 97th percentile arm value. That’s actually a higher mark than Pete Crow-Armstrong, just to put that into some context. Because of Happ’s defense in left field, as well as his ability to hit from both sides of the plate, he has a textbook profile for an everyday role in the postseason. But I’m going to argue he should not have one for the Cubs this year. As I mentioned, it’s been a down year offensively for Happ, by his standards. He’s hitting just .221 with a .745 OPS, which certainly isn’t bad by any means, but a far cry from what we're used to. And with a 104 OPS+, he’s still an above league-average hitter. But that’s not really where the problem lies. It comes down to the massive difference in his splits. As a left-handed hitter against right-handed pitchers, Happ is hitting .242 with an .815 OPS; 46 of his 54 extra-base hits have come from the left side of the plate, and his walk rate as a lefty is all the way up at 14.4%. That’s something you’ll take all day long. The problem is what he’s doing on the other side. As a right-handed hitter against left-handed pitchers, Happ has been, to put it bluntly, completely dreadful. He’s hitting just .148 with an OPS below .500, and he’s striking out in 35% of his plate appearances from the right side. He has a 127 wRC+ as a left-handed hitter this season. As a right-handed hitter, that number is 39. That might as well be two completely different players, and in no world should Happ be starting against left-handed pitchers in the playoffs when the matchups matter the most. Fortunately for the Cubs, they made a move at the trade deadline for a guy who can help solve that problem. Tyrone Taylor, whom Chicago acquired alongside Clay Holmes, has only logged 75 plate appearances since joining the team in early August. That’s going to need to change once the playoffs roll around. Taylor is hitting .308 against left-handed pitching with an OPS north of .900, giving the Cubs exactly what they need when a tough southpaw takes the mound. And it’s not like the Cubs would be sacrificing much defensively by making the switch—Taylor has been maybe slightly worse than Happ in left field, but not enough to truly feel the difference. Happ’s defense is still a major strength, but Taylor is still more than capable of holding his own out there. Happ is at his best when he’s hitting left-handed against righties. Taylor, meanwhile, has been at his best against lefties. That should, in theory, make the decision pretty simple. The Cubs, no matter who they face off against, are going to see quality left-handed pitching in the postseason. Chris Sale, Cristopher Sánchez, Tarik Skubal, Blake Snell, and Jesús Luzardo are just a few of the potential names this team could see depending on how the playoff matchups shake out. And frankly, there’s no reason for Happ to be in the starting lineup in those matchups. If one of those names is on the mound, put Taylor in left field. Even if it’s a left-handed reliever coming into the game late, I’d much rather see Taylor come off the bench in a pinch-hit situation, and then take over in left the following inning. Neither Happ nor Taylor has a particularly strong playoff track record, which makes playing the matchups even more important. This isn’t a situation where one player has years of postseason dominance that demands an everyday role. Instead, the Cubs have two outfielders who complement each other extremely well. Having already soft-launched this platoon throughout most of September, it's clearly a plan worth investing in once the playoffs roll around. View full article

Image courtesy of David Banks-Imagn Images The Chicago Cubs are less than a week away from playoff baseball. At this point in the season, you want to see your team playing at its peak level You want the things that have worked throughout the season to be clicking, and you certainly want to feel confident in the areas that are going to matter most in October. Unfortunately for the Cubs, their bullpen isn't quite where it needs to be. Chicago's late-game pitching has been a hot topic of discussion all season, and even with the bullpen as healthy as it has been in some time, the North Siders still haven't gotten enough consistency from the group. Over the last month, they've converted just five of their 12 save opportunities. While not every high-leverage situation in the playoffs will come in the ninth inning, that number is indicative of a larger question surrounding the team's late-game pitching. Jacob Webb is probably the biggest concern. Webb was brought in as more of a low-level, middle-relief option coming into the season, but injuries forced the Cubs to rely on him in much bigger situations. He's been their primary ninth-inning option for most of the season, but he's struggled mightily over the past month. He's sporting a 10.29 ERA during that span and hasn't recorded a save since Aug. 14, despite receiving plenty of opportunities to do so. In fact, Webb has blown four saves since his last conversion, with the long ball playing a major role in his struggles. His changeup and slider, which are his two primary secondary offerings, have been hit extremely hard recently, while the swing-and-miss that made him so effective earlier in the season simply hasn't been there. For a team about to enter the postseason, that's a significant problem. Webb wasn't necessarily supposed to be one of the Cubs' premier high-leverage arms coming into the year, but they've needed him to fill that role, and his recent performance hasn't exactly inspired confidence. The good news is that there are some positive developments elsewhere in the bullpen, starting with Daniel Palencia. The right-hander immediately struggled after returning from the injured list, allowing seven earned runs across just 4 1/3 innings, and more than half of the baserunners he's allowed since his return have come around to score. But he's looked like a completely different pitcher lately. In his last five outings, totaling 5 2/3 innings, he hasn't allowed a run or a hit. Even more impressively, he hasn't allowed a single baserunner over his last three appearances. His velocity and the shape of his fastball have also been improving, which is an extremely encouraging development for the Cubs. If Palencia can carry this recent stretch into October, he should be a major part of Craig Counsell's high-leverage plans. He's not the only pitcher trending in the right direction, either. Ryan Rolison and Ryan Zeferjahn have both been getting better lately, while Aaron Civale and Colin Rea have also looked sharp recently. Civale, in particular, seems like someone who could have a bigger role in the playoffs than he did over the course of the regular season. This isn't a case of the entire Cubs bullpen suddenly becoming unusable. There are plenty of capable arms in the group, and some of them are actually pitching better as the postseason approaches. The bigger issue is whether the organization has enough reliable options to get through the biggest moments of a playoff series. As a unit, the Cubs' bullpen ranks 19th among all 30 MLB teams with a 4.42 ERA over the last month. That's the worst mark among any National League playoff team, and the home run problem has been particularly glaring; Chicago's relievers have allowed 16 of them during that span. A team can survive giving up a couple of singles in an inning. A solo homer can change the complexion of a game, while a two- or three-run shot can erase an entire night's worth of work in one swing. And when you're heading into the postseason, you need to know who you can trust when those moments arrive. That's where the Cubs still have some questions to answer. If this were happening in June, there would be plenty of time to figure things out. If it were happening in July, the Cubs could add another arm or simply wait for some of their pitchers to find their form again. There isn't much time left now. They're less than a week away from the Wild Card Round, and they'll soon be playing games where one bad inning can end their season. The Cubs don't necessarily need their bullpen to become one of baseball's best overnight—they have the offense to survive a number of October tests. They just need enough reliable options for Craig Counsell to navigate the biggest moments. There are some encouraging signs, but with the postseason just days away, this group still feels like a potential problem waiting to happen. View full article

The Cubs have several options for their biggest postseason bullpen moments, including Jacob Webb, Daniel Palencia, Aaron Civale, Ryan Rolison, and Ryan Zeferjahn. But who should get the ball when the game is on the line? View full video