Sam Caulder
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Image courtesy of © Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images For as good as the 2026 Chicago Cubs have been, they’ve certainly battled their fair share of injuries. The team has been dealing with a plethora of ailments for most of the year, with the pitching staff taking the biggest hit. Though, to be sure, the lineup has also been forced to navigate some notable absences. And yet, despite all of that, the Cubs remain well ahead of the pack in the NL Wild Card picture. Of course, every fanbase manages to complain about injuries and how banged up their team is over the course of a season. But good news, Cubs fans: We actually can! In a recent FanGraphs article examining which teams have suffered the most due to injuries, the Cubs landed tied for the seventh-most potential WAR lost in baseball. According to ZiPS projections, Chicago has lost 10.0 potential WAR to injuries this season, trailing only six teams. And it becomes even more interesting when looking at the other end of the equation. The Cubs also have the fifth-most potential injury WAR remaining in baseball, with another 3.6 WAR potentially still on the table. Only the Red Sox, Athletics, Tigers and Yankees have more. Now, it’s important to note that this isn’t saying the Cubs would actually have 10 additional wins if everyone had stayed healthy; they’re projections. Still, it’s a pretty remarkable number for a team that has still managed to play so well despite the absences. So, how exactly did Chicago get there? Cubs' Injury Onslaught Has Cost Them So Much Production What better place to start than the pitching staff? The Cubs have seen both their starting rotation and bullpen get absolutely obliterated by injuries this season. Cade Horton made one full start before leaving his second outing, eventually undergoing season-ending Tommy John surgery in April. Justin Steele, meanwhile, has missed the entire season, removing two important pieces from Chicago’s rotation before the year even had a chance to fully get going. Then there’s Ben Brown, Edward Cabrera and Matthew Boyd, all of whom have missed significant time at different points throughout the season. Cabrera is particularly notable because Chicago acquired him in the offseason with the expectation that he would be an important piece of the rotation. He made one start after returning from his previous injury before being sent right back to the injured list, where he’s expected to remain through at least the end of August. But if you thought that was bad, the bullpen has been equally (if not more) decimated. Daniel Palencia has missed most of the season, while Riley Martin and Gavin Hollowell have also spent significant time on the shelf. Phil Maton and Hoby Milner have each missed substantial portions of the year as well. Considering all of that, it’s honestly pretty impressive that the pitching staff has held together as well as it has. The Cubs have had to continually shuffle their depth chart, finding replacements and asking other arms to take on larger roles than originally expected. The fact that they’re still 20 games above .500 is a testament to the organization’s depth and its ability to survive these injuries. It’s also not like the offense has had a perfect bill of health, either. Matt Shaw has been out since late June with a sprained left hand, although he is now on a rehab assignment. Seiya Suzuki also missed time earlier in the season, while Dansby Swanson was recently placed on the injured list with a strained oblique. Swanson is the biggest concern at this point. He could potentially miss the remainder of the regular season, and depending on his recovery, there’s even a chance his injury could sideline the Cubs’ shortstop into the postseason. So, while the offense has been considerably healthier than its pitching staff, it certainly hasn’t been immune to the injury bug. And that brings us back to the FanGraphs list. They still have 3.6 projected WAR remaining on the injured list, which ranks fifth in the league. That number could obviously change quickly. Brown could return soon, Shaw is on the mend, and with the Cubs sitting pretty in the playoff picture, they can afford to be a little more patient. But Horton is done for the year, and there are still several bullpen arms sidelined. There’s a legitimate possibility that Chicago’s injury situation continues to be a factor all the way into September and October. View full article
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- cade horton
- justin steele
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For as good as the 2026 Chicago Cubs have been, they’ve certainly battled their fair share of injuries. The team has been dealing with a plethora of ailments for most of the year, with the pitching staff taking the biggest hit. Though, to be sure, the lineup has also been forced to navigate some notable absences. And yet, despite all of that, the Cubs remain well ahead of the pack in the NL Wild Card picture. Of course, every fanbase manages to complain about injuries and how banged up their team is over the course of a season. But good news, Cubs fans: We actually can! In a recent FanGraphs article examining which teams have suffered the most due to injuries, the Cubs landed tied for the seventh-most potential WAR lost in baseball. According to ZiPS projections, Chicago has lost 10.0 potential WAR to injuries this season, trailing only six teams. And it becomes even more interesting when looking at the other end of the equation. The Cubs also have the fifth-most potential injury WAR remaining in baseball, with another 3.6 WAR potentially still on the table. Only the Red Sox, Athletics, Tigers and Yankees have more. Now, it’s important to note that this isn’t saying the Cubs would actually have 10 additional wins if everyone had stayed healthy; they’re projections. Still, it’s a pretty remarkable number for a team that has still managed to play so well despite the absences. So, how exactly did Chicago get there? Cubs' Injury Onslaught Has Cost Them So Much Production What better place to start than the pitching staff? The Cubs have seen both their starting rotation and bullpen get absolutely obliterated by injuries this season. Cade Horton made one full start before leaving his second outing, eventually undergoing season-ending Tommy John surgery in April. Justin Steele, meanwhile, has missed the entire season, removing two important pieces from Chicago’s rotation before the year even had a chance to fully get going. Then there’s Ben Brown, Edward Cabrera and Matthew Boyd, all of whom have missed significant time at different points throughout the season. Cabrera is particularly notable because Chicago acquired him in the offseason with the expectation that he would be an important piece of the rotation. He made one start after returning from his previous injury before being sent right back to the injured list, where he’s expected to remain through at least the end of August. But if you thought that was bad, the bullpen has been equally (if not more) decimated. Daniel Palencia has missed most of the season, while Riley Martin and Gavin Hollowell have also spent significant time on the shelf. Phil Maton and Hoby Milner have each missed substantial portions of the year as well. Considering all of that, it’s honestly pretty impressive that the pitching staff has held together as well as it has. The Cubs have had to continually shuffle their depth chart, finding replacements and asking other arms to take on larger roles than originally expected. The fact that they’re still 20 games above .500 is a testament to the organization’s depth and its ability to survive these injuries. It’s also not like the offense has had a perfect bill of health, either. Matt Shaw has been out since late June with a sprained left hand, although he is now on a rehab assignment. Seiya Suzuki also missed time earlier in the season, while Dansby Swanson was recently placed on the injured list with a strained oblique. Swanson is the biggest concern at this point. He could potentially miss the remainder of the regular season, and depending on his recovery, there’s even a chance his injury could sideline the Cubs’ shortstop into the postseason. So, while the offense has been considerably healthier than its pitching staff, it certainly hasn’t been immune to the injury bug. And that brings us back to the FanGraphs list. They still have 3.6 projected WAR remaining on the injured list, which ranks fifth in the league. That number could obviously change quickly. Brown could return soon, Shaw is on the mend, and with the Cubs sitting pretty in the playoff picture, they can afford to be a little more patient. But Horton is done for the year, and there are still several bullpen arms sidelined. There’s a legitimate possibility that Chicago’s injury situation continues to be a factor all the way into September and October.
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- justin steele
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The Cubs have dramatically improved their starting rotation since Opening Day, adding Kevin Gausman and Clay Holmes at the deadline to complement Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, and Edward Cabrera. But when you compare them to the Dodgers, Brewers, Phillies, and Braves, there’s still plenty of reason to question their October ceiling. View full video
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- matthew boyd
- shota imanaga
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The Cubs have dramatically improved their starting rotation since Opening Day, adding Kevin Gausman and Clay Holmes at the deadline to complement Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, and Edward Cabrera. But when you compare them to the Dodgers, Brewers, Phillies, and Braves, there’s still plenty of reason to question their October ceiling.
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- matthew boyd
- shota imanaga
- (and 4 more)
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Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images I don't think it's hard to argue that the Chicago Cubs’ starting rotation has been one of the more fascinating groups to follow around the league during the 2026 calendar year. After acquiring Edward Cabrera back in January, it looked like the North Siders would enter the season with, hopefully, four quality starting pitchers: Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga, Cabrera, and a promising young arm in Cade Horton. But as we all know, things move fast in professional sports... and they didn’t necessarily move in the Cubs’ favor. Horton made just two starts before undergoing Tommy John surgery, and after Ben Brown flashed as a starter following a move to the rotation in May, he was placed on the IL just a month later and has yet to return. Not to mention, Cabrera, who missed about two months earlier in the year, is now back on the IL with a blister issue; likewise, Boyd missed nearly two months himself. It’s been a rocky road for the pitching staff, but rather than fold, the front office became aggressive. Chicago added a trio of starting pitchers at the trade deadline in Kevin Gausman, Clay Holmes, and Braxton Garrett, who’s currently with the Iowa Cubs. With the team’s eyes set on October baseball, addressing the starting rotation was a huge point of emphasis, and there’s no question that unit is in a better place now. Boyd-Gausman-Imanaga-Holmes-Cabrera, when healthy, is a strong unit, and odds are good one of those names (presumably Cabrera) will get moved to a relief role come October. But how does the Cubs’ starting rotation stack up to other NL contenders? This team currently holds the top Wild Card spot in the National League, with a record of 74-54 The three teams above them in the standings are the Milwaukee Brewers, Atlanta Braves, and Los Angeles Dodgers, while everyone else is fighting beneath them for of the other two Wild Cards. And just to get it out of the way now: I’m not going to pretend that anyone has a better rotation than the Dodgers. Tarik Skubal and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are two of the top pitchers in the entire league, and there’s an absurd amount of depth behind them. When healthy, this is a team with six or seven names that could start in the postseason. Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, Justin Wrobleski, and Kris Bubic are all names that I’d feel good about taking the mound in October, and no other team has that combination of top-end talent and depth within their starting rotation. Injuries could sink them, but notice how I didn't even need to mention Shohei Ohtani's name in this paragraph to get my point across; these guys are just absurdly good on paper. The Braves and Brewers, however, are much more comparable. Obviously, both teams have legitimate aces in Jacob Misiorowski and Chris Sale. Behind them, though, things are a little thinner. Starting with the Braves: Martín Pérez has been great. However, his 4.29 expected ERA and poor underlying metrics would indicate his performance has been helped by some good luck. Grant Holmes and Bryce Elder have both been solid middle-to-back-end rotation options, but both have little, or no, postseason experience, and both have poor underlying metrics. Those tend to catch up to you in October against the best teams in the league. Spencer Strider is likely to be back soon, and Tyler Mahle has made a couple nice starts since Atlanta acquired him at the deadline. But this version of Strider is not nearly the same as he was a few years ago, and on the year, Mahle is sporting a 4.64 ERA. It’s a comparable unit to Chicago’s, and Sale is the ace the Cubs don’t have. But you have to prefer the Cubs' depth over Atlanta’s, and if I had to choose a rotation to run with for the postseason, I would take Chicago’s. The Brewers are a little scarier. Jacob Misiorowski is the heavy favorite to take home the National League Cy Young Award, and if there’s any team that’s gonna get the most out of their rotation, it’s Milwaukee. They’ve added a trio of starters via trade over the last six-ish months. They acquired left-handers Kyle Harrison and Shane Drohan from Boston back in February, as well as Dustin May from St. Louis at the deadline. Harrison has been a quality No. 2 starter for the Brewers this year, and has one of the highest strikeout rates in the league at 29.7%. Drohan and May have both pitched like serviceable middle-to-back-end rotation options, and the underlying metrics like them both even more than the surface-level numbers. And all of this is without mentioning Logan Henderson; he’s sporting a 2.70 ERA across 63 1/3 innings, and he’s striking out north of six batters for every walk he allows. His expected ERA, as well as both of his strikeout and walk rates, rank in the 94th percentile or higher among MLB pitchers. The Brewers have allowed the fewest runs of any National League team, and I hate to say it about a division rival, but the Cubs’ rotation simply doesn’t stack up. As far as the two other teams that are currently in the NL Wild Card, the Phillies and Padres, let's put it like this: The Phillies scare me, the Padres don’t. Philadelphia’s top three of Cristopher Sánchez, Zack Wheeler, and Jesús Luzardo can shut down any given lineup on any given night. They also have Aaron Nola in there as well. That’s a starting rotation that could make the Phillies a legitimate contender, even if they finish as a Wild Card team. As for the Padres, Michael King is a quality starter, but there are a lot of question marks behind him. They added a pair of starters at the deadline in Casey Mize and Robbie Ray, but both have been up and down since arriving in San Diego. Randy Vásquez and Walker Buehler are decent back-end starters, but neither poses as a huge postseason weapon. So I’d comfortably take the Cubs’ rotation in this hypothetical matchup. Pitching wins games in October, and the Cubs have positioned themselves to go into the postseason with an improved starting rotation. But compared to teams like the Dodgers, Brewers, and Phillies, I’m just not sure they’re there yet. That's going to put a huge onus on the offense to bridge the gap, which they've proven capable of doing to this point. View full article
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Comparing Cubs' Improved Rotation Against Other National League Contenders
Sam Caulder posted an article in Cubs
I don't think it's hard to argue that the Chicago Cubs’ starting rotation has been one of the more fascinating groups to follow around the league during the 2026 calendar year. After acquiring Edward Cabrera back in January, it looked like the North Siders would enter the season with, hopefully, four quality starting pitchers: Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga, Cabrera, and a promising young arm in Cade Horton. But as we all know, things move fast in professional sports... and they didn’t necessarily move in the Cubs’ favor. Horton made just two starts before undergoing Tommy John surgery, and after Ben Brown flashed as a starter following a move to the rotation in May, he was placed on the IL just a month later and has yet to return. Not to mention, Cabrera, who missed about two months earlier in the year, is now back on the IL with a blister issue; likewise, Boyd missed nearly two months himself. It’s been a rocky road for the pitching staff, but rather than fold, the front office became aggressive. Chicago added a trio of starting pitchers at the trade deadline in Kevin Gausman, Clay Holmes, and Braxton Garrett, who’s currently with the Iowa Cubs. With the team’s eyes set on October baseball, addressing the starting rotation was a huge point of emphasis, and there’s no question that unit is in a better place now. Boyd-Gausman-Imanaga-Holmes-Cabrera, when healthy, is a strong unit, and odds are good one of those names (presumably Cabrera) will get moved to a relief role come October. But how does the Cubs’ starting rotation stack up to other NL contenders? This team currently holds the top Wild Card spot in the National League, with a record of 74-54 The three teams above them in the standings are the Milwaukee Brewers, Atlanta Braves, and Los Angeles Dodgers, while everyone else is fighting beneath them for of the other two Wild Cards. And just to get it out of the way now: I’m not going to pretend that anyone has a better rotation than the Dodgers. Tarik Skubal and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are two of the top pitchers in the entire league, and there’s an absurd amount of depth behind them. When healthy, this is a team with six or seven names that could start in the postseason. Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, Justin Wrobleski, and Kris Bubic are all names that I’d feel good about taking the mound in October, and no other team has that combination of top-end talent and depth within their starting rotation. Injuries could sink them, but notice how I didn't even need to mention Shohei Ohtani's name in this paragraph to get my point across; these guys are just absurdly good on paper. The Braves and Brewers, however, are much more comparable. Obviously, both teams have legitimate aces in Jacob Misiorowski and Chris Sale. Behind them, though, things are a little thinner. Starting with the Braves: Martín Pérez has been great. However, his 4.29 expected ERA and poor underlying metrics would indicate his performance has been helped by some good luck. Grant Holmes and Bryce Elder have both been solid middle-to-back-end rotation options, but both have little, or no, postseason experience, and both have poor underlying metrics. Those tend to catch up to you in October against the best teams in the league. Spencer Strider is likely to be back soon, and Tyler Mahle has made a couple nice starts since Atlanta acquired him at the deadline. But this version of Strider is not nearly the same as he was a few years ago, and on the year, Mahle is sporting a 4.64 ERA. It’s a comparable unit to Chicago’s, and Sale is the ace the Cubs don’t have. But you have to prefer the Cubs' depth over Atlanta’s, and if I had to choose a rotation to run with for the postseason, I would take Chicago’s. The Brewers are a little scarier. Jacob Misiorowski is the heavy favorite to take home the National League Cy Young Award, and if there’s any team that’s gonna get the most out of their rotation, it’s Milwaukee. They’ve added a trio of starters via trade over the last six-ish months. They acquired left-handers Kyle Harrison and Shane Drohan from Boston back in February, as well as Dustin May from St. Louis at the deadline. Harrison has been a quality No. 2 starter for the Brewers this year, and has one of the highest strikeout rates in the league at 29.7%. Drohan and May have both pitched like serviceable middle-to-back-end rotation options, and the underlying metrics like them both even more than the surface-level numbers. And all of this is without mentioning Logan Henderson; he’s sporting a 2.70 ERA across 63 1/3 innings, and he’s striking out north of six batters for every walk he allows. His expected ERA, as well as both of his strikeout and walk rates, rank in the 94th percentile or higher among MLB pitchers. The Brewers have allowed the fewest runs of any National League team, and I hate to say it about a division rival, but the Cubs’ rotation simply doesn’t stack up. As far as the two other teams that are currently in the NL Wild Card, the Phillies and Padres, let's put it like this: The Phillies scare me, the Padres don’t. Philadelphia’s top three of Cristopher Sánchez, Zack Wheeler, and Jesús Luzardo can shut down any given lineup on any given night. They also have Aaron Nola in there as well. That’s a starting rotation that could make the Phillies a legitimate contender, even if they finish as a Wild Card team. As for the Padres, Michael King is a quality starter, but there are a lot of question marks behind him. They added a pair of starters at the deadline in Casey Mize and Robbie Ray, but both have been up and down since arriving in San Diego. Randy Vásquez and Walker Buehler are decent back-end starters, but neither poses as a huge postseason weapon. So I’d comfortably take the Cubs’ rotation in this hypothetical matchup. Pitching wins games in October, and the Cubs have positioned themselves to go into the postseason with an improved starting rotation. But compared to teams like the Dodgers, Brewers, and Phillies, I’m just not sure they’re there yet. That's going to put a huge onus on the offense to bridge the gap, which they've proven capable of doing to this point. -
Image courtesy of Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images Michael Busch’s 2026 campaign has been far from consistent. It’s been a year of runs for the Cubs’ first baseman, and right now, he’s running cold. Since the All-Star break, Busch is slashing .250/.293/.364—an anemic showing for a bat-first player, and a rough change after a first half in which he had a 118 wRC+. The surface-level numbers are troubling enough, but one thing immediately jumps off the page when you look under the hood. Busch's walk rate is down to just 5%, after sitting at 15% before the All-Star break. That’s a pretty significant development for a player whose ability to work quality at-bats and reach base via the free pass has been a big part of his game over multiple productive seasons. With that part of his game currently absent, it’s no surprise that he’s in a slump. In fact, it’s gotten to the point where his production lines up closely with his abysmal April showing. In 132 plate appearances through the end of April, Busch hit just .193/.295/.281. He struck out 30 times while drawing 15 walks. That was, without question, the ugliest stretch of Busch’s 2026 season. But there’s an interesting distinction between what happened in April and what’s happening right now. April Busch simply wasn't hitting. He still had the ability to draw walks, which kept his on-base percentage from completely bottoming out. The current version of Busch isn’t giving himself that same cushion. After he seemed not to be able to execute his swing in the frigidity of April and early May, Busch is swinging the bat better, even now. His approach, however, has gone sideways. There’s also a power component to this slump that can’t be ignored, though. Busch hit 34 home runs and slugged .523 last year; it's a long way down from there to his sub-.390 slugging for this season. His hard-hit rate has fallen to just 33% since the All-Star break, well below his 38.3% mark for the season as a whole and an even more significant drop from the 47.3% mark he posted last year. Hitting for power is made up of four essential skills: Swing decisions: You have to work for a pitch you can drive; swinging at everything leads to too many balls in play that come on pitches unsuited to the slugger's purpose. Elevating: There's no slug on the ground, no matter how hard you hit it. You have to create some plane and lift the ball. Bat speed: This might seem the most obvious and elemental, but it's just one piece of the picture. That said, the faster you swing, the greater your margin for error in terms of hitting for power. The slower you swing, the more perfect you have to be, which brings us to Squaring up the ball: This matters almost as much as bat speed, and is where Busch has thrived in the past. If you can line up the ball and hit it squarely enough, a slower-than-average swing can frequently produce a faster-than-average batted ball. Do that on the right plane, and it'll go a long way. Busch's bat speed is down this year; that much is undeniable. It was especially low early, and has trended upward, but it's still lower than it was for much of last season—and even last season, he had below-average bat speed. That's one problem that has led to less frequent hard contact and (therefore) less pop from Busch of late. The more important one, though, is that he's also not squaring the ball up—and that aspect of his game is still trending the wrong way, and shows a greater separation from what he did last year. Busch still lifts the ball a lot. However, on that four-item power checklist, he's gone from having three of four boxes checked (lacking only plus bat speed) last season, down to just one. He's not making good swing decisions, and (partially because of that) he's not hitting the ball nearly as soundly when he does swing. The saving grace, to the extent that there's been one, is Busch's feel for contact. He's not whiffing as much as he did last year or early this year, which has reduced his strikeout rate. It's also cost him chances to hit a ball better and deep counts wherein he might have drawn more walks, but given what he's showing (and not showing) lately, that's fine. He's not doing enough things well in the batter's box right now to make anyone wish he were trading more contact for power; he needs to keep putting the ball in play. Soon, though, he needs to start doing it with much more authority, and that might prove impossible. In each season of his Cubs tenure, Busch has had at least one significant slump. That makes it easier to dream on him pulling out of this one. For now, though, he's mired deep. The lack of walks is certainly the biggest red flag, but the batted-ball data only exacerbates the concern. If Busch isn’t getting on base via the walk and isn’t consistently hitting the ball hard when he does make contact, there aren’t many paths to productive at-bats. This may not be as ugly as Busch’s April stretch was, but there are enough similarities—and some new underlying concerns—to make it worth watching closely. For a Cubs lineup that needs Busch to provide both on-base ability and power from the middle of the order, getting him back to his first-half version is crucial. Failing that, some of his playing time might soon need to go to Matt Shaw, Carson Kelly or newcomer Gabriel Arias. View full article
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Michael Busch is Slumping Again, But This Time, It’s Different
Sam Caulder posted an article in Cubs
Michael Busch’s 2026 campaign has been far from consistent. It’s been a year of runs for the Cubs’ first baseman, and right now, he’s running cold. Since the All-Star break, Busch is slashing .250/.293/.364—an anemic showing for a bat-first player, and a rough change after a first half in which he had a 118 wRC+. The surface-level numbers are troubling enough, but one thing immediately jumps off the page when you look under the hood. Busch's walk rate is down to just 5%, after sitting at 15% before the All-Star break. That’s a pretty significant development for a player whose ability to work quality at-bats and reach base via the free pass has been a big part of his game over multiple productive seasons. With that part of his game currently absent, it’s no surprise that he’s in a slump. In fact, it’s gotten to the point where his production lines up closely with his abysmal April showing. In 132 plate appearances through the end of April, Busch hit just .193/.295/.281. He struck out 30 times while drawing 15 walks. That was, without question, the ugliest stretch of Busch’s 2026 season. But there’s an interesting distinction between what happened in April and what’s happening right now. April Busch simply wasn't hitting. He still had the ability to draw walks, which kept his on-base percentage from completely bottoming out. The current version of Busch isn’t giving himself that same cushion. After he seemed not to be able to execute his swing in the frigidity of April and early May, Busch is swinging the bat better, even now. His approach, however, has gone sideways. There’s also a power component to this slump that can’t be ignored, though. Busch hit 34 home runs and slugged .523 last year; it's a long way down from there to his sub-.390 slugging for this season. His hard-hit rate has fallen to just 33% since the All-Star break, well below his 38.3% mark for the season as a whole and an even more significant drop from the 47.3% mark he posted last year. Hitting for power is made up of four essential skills: Swing decisions: You have to work for a pitch you can drive; swinging at everything leads to too many balls in play that come on pitches unsuited to the slugger's purpose. Elevating: There's no slug on the ground, no matter how hard you hit it. You have to create some plane and lift the ball. Bat speed: This might seem the most obvious and elemental, but it's just one piece of the picture. That said, the faster you swing, the greater your margin for error in terms of hitting for power. The slower you swing, the more perfect you have to be, which brings us to Squaring up the ball: This matters almost as much as bat speed, and is where Busch has thrived in the past. If you can line up the ball and hit it squarely enough, a slower-than-average swing can frequently produce a faster-than-average batted ball. Do that on the right plane, and it'll go a long way. Busch's bat speed is down this year; that much is undeniable. It was especially low early, and has trended upward, but it's still lower than it was for much of last season—and even last season, he had below-average bat speed. That's one problem that has led to less frequent hard contact and (therefore) less pop from Busch of late. The more important one, though, is that he's also not squaring the ball up—and that aspect of his game is still trending the wrong way, and shows a greater separation from what he did last year. Busch still lifts the ball a lot. However, on that four-item power checklist, he's gone from having three of four boxes checked (lacking only plus bat speed) last season, down to just one. He's not making good swing decisions, and (partially because of that) he's not hitting the ball nearly as soundly when he does swing. The saving grace, to the extent that there's been one, is Busch's feel for contact. He's not whiffing as much as he did last year or early this year, which has reduced his strikeout rate. It's also cost him chances to hit a ball better and deep counts wherein he might have drawn more walks, but given what he's showing (and not showing) lately, that's fine. He's not doing enough things well in the batter's box right now to make anyone wish he were trading more contact for power; he needs to keep putting the ball in play. Soon, though, he needs to start doing it with much more authority, and that might prove impossible. In each season of his Cubs tenure, Busch has had at least one significant slump. That makes it easier to dream on him pulling out of this one. For now, though, he's mired deep. The lack of walks is certainly the biggest red flag, but the batted-ball data only exacerbates the concern. If Busch isn’t getting on base via the walk and isn’t consistently hitting the ball hard when he does make contact, there aren’t many paths to productive at-bats. This may not be as ugly as Busch’s April stretch was, but there are enough similarities—and some new underlying concerns—to make it worth watching closely. For a Cubs lineup that needs Busch to provide both on-base ability and power from the middle of the order, getting him back to his first-half version is crucial. Failing that, some of his playing time might soon need to go to Matt Shaw, Carson Kelly or newcomer Gabriel Arias. -
Image courtesy of © Geoff Burke-Imagn Images There’s a common saying in the world of sports: “Defense wins championships.” That’s certainly true in baseball. If you don’t play clean defense, bad things usually tend to follow. But when the calendar flips to October, postseason baseball is often won and lost in the hands of a pitching staff. One bad inning can completely change the complexion of a series, and one blown lead can be the difference between moving on and going home. That’s why it’s going to be important for Chicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell to have a strong understanding of who he can trust in late-inning, high-leverage situations. Fortunately for him, multiple bullpen arms have made a compelling case to handle those spots. We’ll start with the obvious one: Jacob Webb. Webb comfortably leads the Cubs in both saves (8) and save opportunities (12). Some of that can likely be attributed to the absence of Daniel Palencia, who should be returning in the near future from elbow inflammation. But regardless of the circumstances, Counsell has clearly shown that he trusts Webb when the game is on the line. And barring a catastrophic end to the regular season, that shouldn’t be any different once October arrives. Webb’s underlying numbers help explain why. His 95th-percentile whiff rate and 87th-percentile chase rate highlight just how nasty his stuff can be. He has the type of arsenal that can miss bats when he needs a strikeout and get hitters to expand the zone when he’s ahead in the count. That’s exactly the kind of arm you want available in the biggest spots of a postseason game. Even if Webb eventually loses the primary closer role when Palencia returns, that doesn’t mean his importance to the Cubs’ bullpen will diminish. In fact, it could allow Counsell to deploy him more strategically, using him whenever the most dangerous part of an opposing lineup comes to the plate. Speaking of Palencia, he should immediately factor into that equation once he’s healthy. A flame-throwing right-hander with a wipeout slider who is 26-for-30 in save opportunities over his career feels like a pretty safe bet to be trusted in high-leverage situations down the stretch. The biggest question is simply whether he can stay healthy. When he’s on the mound, there’s plenty to like. Palencia has the swing-and-miss stuff necessary to put away hitters; he has been significantly better this season at generating soft contact, and walks haven’t been a major concern. The sample size is admittedly small — he’s thrown just 16 2/3 innings this season — but the early results have been encouraging. And even if Palencia doesn’t immediately reclaim the ninth-inning role, he feels like a very safe bet to become one of Counsell’s most trusted high-leverage arms once he returns. The same can be said for one of Chicago’s recent trade deadline acquisitions: Ryan Zeferjahn. The Cubs surrendered Moisés Ballesteros and Mason McGwire to acquire Zeferjahn, and it’s pretty clear how they intend to use him. All four of his appearances with Chicago have come in the eighth inning, which is pretty tough to chalk up as coincidence. Zeferjahn’s sweeper-four-seam combination generates plenty of whiffs, while he has also shown an ability to generate soft contact. Those traits give him the type of profile that makes sense in a setup role, particularly when Counsell needs someone capable of navigating the heart of an opposing lineup. There’s no guarantee that bullpen roles remain completely rigid over the final weeks of the season, but Zeferjahn seems like about as safe a bet as there is to continue receiving important eighth-inning opportunities. Then there’s Ryan Rolison. The biggest difference between Rolison and the other three names mentioned is obvious: He’s left-handed. But that’s also part of what makes him valuable. The Cubs don’t necessarily need Rolison to be the guy they turn to for the final three outs of a game. What he has done is earn himself an opportunity to be trusted when the game is hanging in the balance. Rolison’s 2.28 ERA is the lowest among Cubs relievers, excluding Riley Martin, who has thrown only 8 1/3 innings. His underlying numbers don’t jump off the page in the same way Webb, Palencia or Zeferjahn’s do, but that doesn’t make him any less useful. Rolison has done a good job keeping the ball on the ground, and his presence gives Counsell a different type of weapon to deploy late in games. A bullpen doesn’t need four identical dominant arms to be effective. Ideally, a manager has different looks available depending on the situation, matchup and part of the lineup he’s trying to navigate. Rolison provides that versatility. You probably don’t want him closing out a game in the ninth inning with the season on the line, but he has earned a late-inning role down the stretch. Webb has already established himself as a trusted late-inning option. Palencia should add another explosive arm once he returns. Zeferjahn looks increasingly comfortable in the setup role, while Rolison gives Counsell a valuable left-handed option. There may not be one perfect answer for every late-game situation. But heading into the stretch run, the Cubs have something nearly as valuable: options. And come October, Counsell will need every one of them. 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There’s a common saying in the world of sports: “Defense wins championships.” That’s certainly true in baseball. If you don’t play clean defense, bad things usually tend to follow. But when the calendar flips to October, postseason baseball is often won and lost in the hands of a pitching staff. One bad inning can completely change the complexion of a series, and one blown lead can be the difference between moving on and going home. That’s why it’s going to be important for Chicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell to have a strong understanding of who he can trust in late-inning, high-leverage situations. Fortunately for him, multiple bullpen arms have made a compelling case to handle those spots. We’ll start with the obvious one: Jacob Webb. Webb comfortably leads the Cubs in both saves (8) and save opportunities (12). Some of that can likely be attributed to the absence of Daniel Palencia, who should be returning in the near future from elbow inflammation. But regardless of the circumstances, Counsell has clearly shown that he trusts Webb when the game is on the line. And barring a catastrophic end to the regular season, that shouldn’t be any different once October arrives. Webb’s underlying numbers help explain why. His 95th-percentile whiff rate and 87th-percentile chase rate highlight just how nasty his stuff can be. He has the type of arsenal that can miss bats when he needs a strikeout and get hitters to expand the zone when he’s ahead in the count. That’s exactly the kind of arm you want available in the biggest spots of a postseason game. Even if Webb eventually loses the primary closer role when Palencia returns, that doesn’t mean his importance to the Cubs’ bullpen will diminish. In fact, it could allow Counsell to deploy him more strategically, using him whenever the most dangerous part of an opposing lineup comes to the plate. Speaking of Palencia, he should immediately factor into that equation once he’s healthy. A flame-throwing right-hander with a wipeout slider who is 26-for-30 in save opportunities over his career feels like a pretty safe bet to be trusted in high-leverage situations down the stretch. The biggest question is simply whether he can stay healthy. When he’s on the mound, there’s plenty to like. Palencia has the swing-and-miss stuff necessary to put away hitters; he has been significantly better this season at generating soft contact, and walks haven’t been a major concern. The sample size is admittedly small — he’s thrown just 16 2/3 innings this season — but the early results have been encouraging. And even if Palencia doesn’t immediately reclaim the ninth-inning role, he feels like a very safe bet to become one of Counsell’s most trusted high-leverage arms once he returns. The same can be said for one of Chicago’s recent trade deadline acquisitions: Ryan Zeferjahn. The Cubs surrendered Moisés Ballesteros and Mason McGwire to acquire Zeferjahn, and it’s pretty clear how they intend to use him. All four of his appearances with Chicago have come in the eighth inning, which is pretty tough to chalk up as coincidence. Zeferjahn’s sweeper-four-seam combination generates plenty of whiffs, while he has also shown an ability to generate soft contact. Those traits give him the type of profile that makes sense in a setup role, particularly when Counsell needs someone capable of navigating the heart of an opposing lineup. There’s no guarantee that bullpen roles remain completely rigid over the final weeks of the season, but Zeferjahn seems like about as safe a bet as there is to continue receiving important eighth-inning opportunities. Then there’s Ryan Rolison. The biggest difference between Rolison and the other three names mentioned is obvious: He’s left-handed. But that’s also part of what makes him valuable. The Cubs don’t necessarily need Rolison to be the guy they turn to for the final three outs of a game. What he has done is earn himself an opportunity to be trusted when the game is hanging in the balance. Rolison’s 2.28 ERA is the lowest among Cubs relievers, excluding Riley Martin, who has thrown only 8 1/3 innings. His underlying numbers don’t jump off the page in the same way Webb, Palencia or Zeferjahn’s do, but that doesn’t make him any less useful. Rolison has done a good job keeping the ball on the ground, and his presence gives Counsell a different type of weapon to deploy late in games. A bullpen doesn’t need four identical dominant arms to be effective. Ideally, a manager has different looks available depending on the situation, matchup and part of the lineup he’s trying to navigate. Rolison provides that versatility. You probably don’t want him closing out a game in the ninth inning with the season on the line, but he has earned a late-inning role down the stretch. Webb has already established himself as a trusted late-inning option. Palencia should add another explosive arm once he returns. Zeferjahn looks increasingly comfortable in the setup role, while Rolison gives Counsell a valuable left-handed option. There may not be one perfect answer for every late-game situation. But heading into the stretch run, the Cubs have something nearly as valuable: options. And come October, Counsell will need every one of them.
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Image courtesy of USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect Cubs outfield prospect Kane Kepley has one of the more intriguing profiles that you’ll come across in the minor leagues. Chicago used their second-round pick in the 2025 MLB Draft on Kepley out of the University of North Carolina, and he's quickly established himself as one of the more interesting young players in the organization. He currently ranks as North Side Baseball’s No. 5 prospect, and while he might not have 30-homer upside, there’s a lot more to his offensive profile than raw power. In fact, what Kepley lacks in that department, he makes up for in just about every other area. Across 98 games between High-A South Bend and Double-A Knoxville, Kepley is hitting just .253. That number obviously isn’t going to jump off the page, especially for a prospect who ranks inside the Cubs’ top five. But look a little deeper, and the picture becomes considerably more interesting. Kepley’s on-base percentage sits at .436, while his OPS is at .853. Those numbers are being driven largely by one of the most impressive traits in his game: his plate discipline. His walk rate currently sits at an outstanding 21.3%. He’s averaging more than a walk per game. It often feels like opposing pitchers don’t even want to give him anything to hit; they're too frustrated to bear down on the hard task of getting him out. He’s swinging at just 34.4% of the pitches he sees, so he’s taking nearly two-thirds of everything thrown his way. For context, most hitters are swinging at nearly half of the pitches they see. Kepley doesn’t chase very often, and that level of selectivity is extremely encouraging for a young hitter—particularly one who’s still adjusting to professional pitching. He isn’t getting himself out by expanding the zone, and when he does reach base, he has the skill set to make opposing teams pay for it. That brings us to another huge part of what makes Kepley so interesting: his speed. After stealing 45 bases in his final season with the Tar Heels, it was fair to wonder how much of that athleticism would translate once he started facing professional competition. The answer has been pretty emphatic. Kepley has already logged 53 stolen bases on 58 attempts this season. If you walk him, you better be prepared for him to take second. And if he reaches on a single, there’s a good chance he’s already thinking about how he can turn it into something more. That speed is a massive part of his overall profile. Obviously, being a center fielder makes that speed even more valuable. Kepley has the range to run down balls in the gaps, and his instincts and reaction time allow him to get to plenty of balls that other outfielders simply wouldn’t. He can cover a ton of ground, and while he likely won’t be needed in center field long-term (with Pete Crow-Armstrong already there), his defensive ability will still be extremely valuable. In fact, the two could eventually form one of the best defensive outfield tandems in baseball. Kepley’s speed doesn’t only show up defensively, or when he’s running the bases. He’s also a legitimate threat to take the extra base when he puts the ball in play. He has already recorded seven triples this season, along with 34 total extra-base hits. He might not be a traditional power threat, but he can absolutely drive the ball into the gaps and turn his speed into extra bases. And, interestingly enough, his power has improved since joining the Cubs. Kepley hit just 13 home runs over the course of his three-year college career. He's already hit eight this season, and that’s after making the transition from a metal bat to a wood bat. Obviously, that uptick in power is over a fairly small sample, and it would be premature to suddenly project significant home run power onto his profile. But it’s certainly an encouraging development, especially when you consider that the rest of his offensive game is already built around getting on base and creating pressure once he does. He might not have the highest ceiling among the Cubs’ top prospects. There are players in the organization with considerably more raw power, louder tools and a clearer path toward becoming middle-of-the-order hitters. But prospects aren’t only about the ceiling outcome. Sometimes, the players with the highest floors can become incredibly valuable major leaguers, and Kepley feels like one of those players. He has great speed, he’s a terrific defender, and he has plate discipline that’s clearly well beyond his years. He can steal bases, take extra bases, and drive the ball into the gaps, and he has even shown signs that his power could be developing into more than initially expected. There are still things he’ll need to prove, particularly as he continues climbing through the upper levels of the minor leagues. His batting average shows that there is still plenty of room for improvement as a hitter, and his long-term power ceiling remains a question. But there are enough established strengths in his game to make him one of the more fascinating prospects in the Cubs’ system. Kepley might not be the prospect with the highest upside. He might, however, be one of the prospects with the highest floor. And if he continues to show this kind of discipline, speed and defensive ability while refining the rest of his offensive game, it’s entirely possible that we see him in the majors at some point in 2027. View full article
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Cubs outfield prospect Kane Kepley has one of the more intriguing profiles that you’ll come across in the minor leagues. Chicago used their second-round pick in the 2025 MLB Draft on Kepley out of the University of North Carolina, and he's quickly established himself as one of the more interesting young players in the organization. He currently ranks as North Side Baseball’s No. 5 prospect, and while he might not have 30-homer upside, there’s a lot more to his offensive profile than raw power. In fact, what Kepley lacks in that department, he makes up for in just about every other area. Across 98 games between High-A South Bend and Double-A Knoxville, Kepley is hitting just .253. That number obviously isn’t going to jump off the page, especially for a prospect who ranks inside the Cubs’ top five. But look a little deeper, and the picture becomes considerably more interesting. Kepley’s on-base percentage sits at .436, while his OPS is at .853. Those numbers are being driven largely by one of the most impressive traits in his game: his plate discipline. His walk rate currently sits at an outstanding 21.3%. He’s averaging more than a walk per game. It often feels like opposing pitchers don’t even want to give him anything to hit; they're too frustrated to bear down on the hard task of getting him out. He’s swinging at just 34.4% of the pitches he sees, so he’s taking nearly two-thirds of everything thrown his way. For context, most hitters are swinging at nearly half of the pitches they see. Kepley doesn’t chase very often, and that level of selectivity is extremely encouraging for a young hitter—particularly one who’s still adjusting to professional pitching. He isn’t getting himself out by expanding the zone, and when he does reach base, he has the skill set to make opposing teams pay for it. That brings us to another huge part of what makes Kepley so interesting: his speed. After stealing 45 bases in his final season with the Tar Heels, it was fair to wonder how much of that athleticism would translate once he started facing professional competition. The answer has been pretty emphatic. Kepley has already logged 53 stolen bases on 58 attempts this season. If you walk him, you better be prepared for him to take second. And if he reaches on a single, there’s a good chance he’s already thinking about how he can turn it into something more. That speed is a massive part of his overall profile. Obviously, being a center fielder makes that speed even more valuable. Kepley has the range to run down balls in the gaps, and his instincts and reaction time allow him to get to plenty of balls that other outfielders simply wouldn’t. He can cover a ton of ground, and while he likely won’t be needed in center field long-term (with Pete Crow-Armstrong already there), his defensive ability will still be extremely valuable. In fact, the two could eventually form one of the best defensive outfield tandems in baseball. Kepley’s speed doesn’t only show up defensively, or when he’s running the bases. He’s also a legitimate threat to take the extra base when he puts the ball in play. He has already recorded seven triples this season, along with 34 total extra-base hits. He might not be a traditional power threat, but he can absolutely drive the ball into the gaps and turn his speed into extra bases. And, interestingly enough, his power has improved since joining the Cubs. Kepley hit just 13 home runs over the course of his three-year college career. He's already hit eight this season, and that’s after making the transition from a metal bat to a wood bat. Obviously, that uptick in power is over a fairly small sample, and it would be premature to suddenly project significant home run power onto his profile. But it’s certainly an encouraging development, especially when you consider that the rest of his offensive game is already built around getting on base and creating pressure once he does. He might not have the highest ceiling among the Cubs’ top prospects. There are players in the organization with considerably more raw power, louder tools and a clearer path toward becoming middle-of-the-order hitters. But prospects aren’t only about the ceiling outcome. Sometimes, the players with the highest floors can become incredibly valuable major leaguers, and Kepley feels like one of those players. He has great speed, he’s a terrific defender, and he has plate discipline that’s clearly well beyond his years. He can steal bases, take extra bases, and drive the ball into the gaps, and he has even shown signs that his power could be developing into more than initially expected. There are still things he’ll need to prove, particularly as he continues climbing through the upper levels of the minor leagues. His batting average shows that there is still plenty of room for improvement as a hitter, and his long-term power ceiling remains a question. But there are enough established strengths in his game to make him one of the more fascinating prospects in the Cubs’ system. Kepley might not be the prospect with the highest upside. He might, however, be one of the prospects with the highest floor. And if he continues to show this kind of discipline, speed and defensive ability while refining the rest of his offensive game, it’s entirely possible that we see him in the majors at some point in 2027.
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Image courtesy of © Cody Scanlan/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images Jaxon Wiggins has long been a polarizing name within the Chicago Cubs organization, and that was true even before he ever threw a professional pitch. The Cubs selected Wiggins with the 68th overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, taking a chance on a pitcher who had missed the entire season at the University of Arkansas while recovering from Tommy John surgery. There was plenty to like about the selection, though. Wiggins’ raw stuff was — and still is — extremely impressive, and the Cubs were betting that his upside would ultimately outweigh the risk that came with his injury history and inconsistent command. Since making his professional debut in 2024, there have been plenty of highs and plenty of lows. Unfortunately, the lows have become increasingly difficult to ignore. The pure stuff with Wiggins is electric. Standing at 6-foot-6, the right-hander has an upper-90s fastball with elite life, giving hitters an extremely difficult pitch to square up when he’s able to locate it. He also has a hard slider that generates plenty of swings and misses, particularly when he gets it out of the strike zone. Those two pitches are a big reason why Wiggins is currently ranked as the Cubs’ top pitching prospect, according to North Side Baseball. There’s a legitimate major-league starter hiding somewhere in that arsenal. The problem is finding him consistently. Through 23 innings at Triple-A Iowa this season, Wiggins owns an ugly 9.39 ERA and a 2.09 WHIP. He has allowed more than a hit per inning while also averaging more than a walk per inning, which paints a pretty clear picture of the biggest issue holding him back. Wiggins simply isn't throwing enough strikes, and this isn't exactly a new problem. Even going back to his college career at Arkansas, Wiggins struggled to consistently command the strike zone. Across 89 innings over two collegiate seasons, he walked 57 batters. That spotty control has followed him into professional baseball. His walk rate at Triple-A this season has skyrocketed to 20.4%. That’s comfortably higher than where he’s been throughout the rest of his professional career, but it’s worth noting that Wiggins has generally hovered around an 11-14% walk rate. Young pitchers obviously can struggle with command as they work their way through the minor leagues. Learning how to consistently locate a fastball, especially while also developing secondary pitches, is one of the more difficult parts of becoming a successful major-league starter. But Wiggins isn't a 20-year-old trying to figure everything out in his first professional season. He's 24 years old and will turn 25 during the postseason. That changes the conversation quite a bit. I think a lot of people, myself included, went into this season assuming Wiggins would make his MLB debut at some point during the summer. The stuff has always been good enough to make that possibility enticing, and his development had reached the point where the Cubs could reasonably have been expected to give him an opportunity if he showed he was ready. At this point, though, the odds of that happening are considerably slimmer. The Cubs made that pretty clear at the trade deadline. They added added three starting pitchers in Kevin Gausman, Clay Holmes and Braxton Garrett. Injuries to the rotation obviously played a major role in those decisions, and it would be unfair to suggest that the Cubs simply went out and acquired three starters because they had no faith in Wiggins. But it’s difficult to believe they would have been quite that aggressive if they felt confident that their top prospect could step into the rotation and provide meaningful innings down the stretch. The timing is particularly notable because Wiggins was already close enough to the majors that this was supposed to be a potential opportunity for him. Instead, the Cubs looked elsewhere for reinforcements. There’s still a possibility that Wiggins could be brought up as a bullpen option at some point. His stuff would certainly play in a relief role, and moving to shorter outings could potentially allow him to attack hitters more aggressively without worrying as much about pacing himself through five or six innings. Even that path, however, isn't particularly straightforward. The Cubs currently have six right-handed relievers on their roster, and Daniel Palencia isn't far away from returning to the bullpen. Adding another right-handed arm to that mix would make an already crowded situation even tighter. None of these additions necessarily change Wiggins' long-term outlook. The Cubs still have plenty of reasons to believe in what he can become. A 6-foot-6 right-hander who can throw an upper-90s fastball with elite movement and pair it with a nasty slider is going to get plenty of opportunities. But the moves made at the deadline do say something about where the organization believes Wiggins is right now. Clearly they don't think he's ready yet, and frankly, it's hard to blame them. View full article
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Jaxon Wiggins Remains A Frustratingly Polarizing Prospect
Sam Caulder posted an article in Minor Leagues
Jaxon Wiggins has long been a polarizing name within the Chicago Cubs organization, and that was true even before he ever threw a professional pitch. The Cubs selected Wiggins with the 68th overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, taking a chance on a pitcher who had missed the entire season at the University of Arkansas while recovering from Tommy John surgery. There was plenty to like about the selection, though. Wiggins’ raw stuff was — and still is — extremely impressive, and the Cubs were betting that his upside would ultimately outweigh the risk that came with his injury history and inconsistent command. Since making his professional debut in 2024, there have been plenty of highs and plenty of lows. Unfortunately, the lows have become increasingly difficult to ignore. The pure stuff with Wiggins is electric. Standing at 6-foot-6, the right-hander has an upper-90s fastball with elite life, giving hitters an extremely difficult pitch to square up when he’s able to locate it. He also has a hard slider that generates plenty of swings and misses, particularly when he gets it out of the strike zone. Those two pitches are a big reason why Wiggins is currently ranked as the Cubs’ top pitching prospect, according to North Side Baseball. There’s a legitimate major-league starter hiding somewhere in that arsenal. The problem is finding him consistently. Through 23 innings at Triple-A Iowa this season, Wiggins owns an ugly 9.39 ERA and a 2.09 WHIP. He has allowed more than a hit per inning while also averaging more than a walk per inning, which paints a pretty clear picture of the biggest issue holding him back. Wiggins simply isn't throwing enough strikes, and this isn't exactly a new problem. Even going back to his college career at Arkansas, Wiggins struggled to consistently command the strike zone. Across 89 innings over two collegiate seasons, he walked 57 batters. That spotty control has followed him into professional baseball. His walk rate at Triple-A this season has skyrocketed to 20.4%. That’s comfortably higher than where he’s been throughout the rest of his professional career, but it’s worth noting that Wiggins has generally hovered around an 11-14% walk rate. Young pitchers obviously can struggle with command as they work their way through the minor leagues. Learning how to consistently locate a fastball, especially while also developing secondary pitches, is one of the more difficult parts of becoming a successful major-league starter. But Wiggins isn't a 20-year-old trying to figure everything out in his first professional season. He's 24 years old and will turn 25 during the postseason. That changes the conversation quite a bit. I think a lot of people, myself included, went into this season assuming Wiggins would make his MLB debut at some point during the summer. The stuff has always been good enough to make that possibility enticing, and his development had reached the point where the Cubs could reasonably have been expected to give him an opportunity if he showed he was ready. At this point, though, the odds of that happening are considerably slimmer. The Cubs made that pretty clear at the trade deadline. They added added three starting pitchers in Kevin Gausman, Clay Holmes and Braxton Garrett. Injuries to the rotation obviously played a major role in those decisions, and it would be unfair to suggest that the Cubs simply went out and acquired three starters because they had no faith in Wiggins. But it’s difficult to believe they would have been quite that aggressive if they felt confident that their top prospect could step into the rotation and provide meaningful innings down the stretch. The timing is particularly notable because Wiggins was already close enough to the majors that this was supposed to be a potential opportunity for him. Instead, the Cubs looked elsewhere for reinforcements. There’s still a possibility that Wiggins could be brought up as a bullpen option at some point. His stuff would certainly play in a relief role, and moving to shorter outings could potentially allow him to attack hitters more aggressively without worrying as much about pacing himself through five or six innings. Even that path, however, isn't particularly straightforward. The Cubs currently have six right-handed relievers on their roster, and Daniel Palencia isn't far away from returning to the bullpen. Adding another right-handed arm to that mix would make an already crowded situation even tighter. None of these additions necessarily change Wiggins' long-term outlook. The Cubs still have plenty of reasons to believe in what he can become. A 6-foot-6 right-hander who can throw an upper-90s fastball with elite movement and pair it with a nasty slider is going to get plenty of opportunities. But the moves made at the deadline do say something about where the organization believes Wiggins is right now. Clearly they don't think he's ready yet, and frankly, it's hard to blame them. -
Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images The Chicago Cubs knew exactly what they were getting when they signed Alex Bregman to a five-year, $175 million contract this winter: a proven veteran, an excellent defender, a consistent offensive contributor and, perhaps most importantly, someone who has already experienced the pressure of playing meaningful October baseball. Unfortunately for the Cubs, Bregman’s North Side career did not get off to the strongest of starts. Through the first half of the season, the third baseman was slashing just .241/.336/.359, which added up to a .696 OPS. With a 97 wRC+, he was actually a below-average hitter for the first three-and-a-half months of the year. For a player making $35 million, that obviously wasn't what the Cubs were hoping to see. Luckily, things appear to be trending in the right direction at exactly the right time. Across 86 plate appearances since the All-Star Break, Bregman has looked much more like the player Cubs fans expected to see when he signed his massive contract. He’s slashing .283/.347/.467, good for an .814 OPS and a 126 wRC+. That’s a pretty significant difference from what Bregman was doing earlier in the year. And perhaps even more encouragingly, there are some clear signs that his approach is changing. Bregman has been really leaning into his pull-side power lately; his pull-rate is above 50% in the second half thus far, including a huge 54.8% mark in August. This has always been his key to success, and it's a good sign that he's rediscovering it now. Despite the team's overall success throughout the year (even as Bregman has struggled), it's clear that the Cubs will need him at the peak of his power if they want to win in the playoffs. As the Cubs get closer to October baseball, Bregman has something that is incredibly difficult to find: an abundance of postseason experience. They have a firm hold of the top National League Wild Card spot and might even be able to make a run at the NL Central title. And after bolstering their pitching staff at the trade deadline with additions such as Kevin Gausman and Ryan Zeferjahn, it’s pretty clear what this team is trying to accomplish. The Cubs want to make a deep postseason run. Bregman knows a thing or two about doing exactly that. The veteran won two World Series championships during his time with the Houston Astros, and he wasn’t simply along for the ride. He was a crucial part of why Houston was able to bring home those championships. During the Astros’ 2017 championship run, Bregman recorded seven extra-base hits across 18 postseason games as a 23-year-old. Then, during Houston’s 2022 run, he posted an impressive .948 OPS throughout the playoffs. That experience matters. That was part of the appeal for Chicago when it signed him. Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer made that clear when discussing the decision to bring Bregman to Chicago during the introductory press conference: “He plays good defense. He makes great contact. He has power. He makes good decisions. On top of that, I think he provides a level of leadership to a team that's ready to win. I think that's really important. He wants to make other guys better. He wants to lead. And I think that there's not a lot of guys like that in the game that want that responsibility.” The Cubs have a roster capable of making a deep postseason run. Their offense has the talent, their pitching staff has been strengthened, and they’ve put themselves in a strong position to secure a playoff spot. What they didn’t necessarily have last year was a player with Bregman’s combination of postseason experience and proven leadership (and no, that's not a shot at Kyle Tucker). Now they do, and Bregman appears to be heating up at exactly the right time. His first half was disappointing, especially considering the expectations that came with his contract. But if this recent stretch is an indication of what’s to come, Chicago could be getting the version of Bregman they expected when they handed him $175 million. View full article
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The Chicago Cubs knew exactly what they were getting when they signed Alex Bregman to a five-year, $175 million contract this winter: a proven veteran, an excellent defender, a consistent offensive contributor and, perhaps most importantly, someone who has already experienced the pressure of playing meaningful October baseball. Unfortunately for the Cubs, Bregman’s North Side career did not get off to the strongest of starts. Through the first half of the season, the third baseman was slashing just .241/.336/.359, which added up to a .696 OPS. With a 97 wRC+, he was actually a below-average hitter for the first three-and-a-half months of the year. For a player making $35 million, that obviously wasn't what the Cubs were hoping to see. Luckily, things appear to be trending in the right direction at exactly the right time. Across 86 plate appearances since the All-Star Break, Bregman has looked much more like the player Cubs fans expected to see when he signed his massive contract. He’s slashing .283/.347/.467, good for an .814 OPS and a 126 wRC+. That’s a pretty significant difference from what Bregman was doing earlier in the year. And perhaps even more encouragingly, there are some clear signs that his approach is changing. Bregman has been really leaning into his pull-side power lately; his pull-rate is above 50% in the second half thus far, including a huge 54.8% mark in August. This has always been his key to success, and it's a good sign that he's rediscovering it now. Despite the team's overall success throughout the year (even as Bregman has struggled), it's clear that the Cubs will need him at the peak of his power if they want to win in the playoffs. As the Cubs get closer to October baseball, Bregman has something that is incredibly difficult to find: an abundance of postseason experience. They have a firm hold of the top National League Wild Card spot and might even be able to make a run at the NL Central title. And after bolstering their pitching staff at the trade deadline with additions such as Kevin Gausman and Ryan Zeferjahn, it’s pretty clear what this team is trying to accomplish. The Cubs want to make a deep postseason run. Bregman knows a thing or two about doing exactly that. The veteran won two World Series championships during his time with the Houston Astros, and he wasn’t simply along for the ride. He was a crucial part of why Houston was able to bring home those championships. During the Astros’ 2017 championship run, Bregman recorded seven extra-base hits across 18 postseason games as a 23-year-old. Then, during Houston’s 2022 run, he posted an impressive .948 OPS throughout the playoffs. That experience matters. That was part of the appeal for Chicago when it signed him. Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer made that clear when discussing the decision to bring Bregman to Chicago during the introductory press conference: “He plays good defense. He makes great contact. He has power. He makes good decisions. On top of that, I think he provides a level of leadership to a team that's ready to win. I think that's really important. He wants to make other guys better. He wants to lead. And I think that there's not a lot of guys like that in the game that want that responsibility.” The Cubs have a roster capable of making a deep postseason run. Their offense has the talent, their pitching staff has been strengthened, and they’ve put themselves in a strong position to secure a playoff spot. What they didn’t necessarily have last year was a player with Bregman’s combination of postseason experience and proven leadership (and no, that's not a shot at Kyle Tucker). Now they do, and Bregman appears to be heating up at exactly the right time. His first half was disappointing, especially considering the expectations that came with his contract. But if this recent stretch is an indication of what’s to come, Chicago could be getting the version of Bregman they expected when they handed him $175 million.
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Alex Bregman’s bat is heating up, but his value to the Cubs goes far beyond his numbers. As October approaches, his championship experience could become Chicago’s biggest advantage.
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