Rcal10

They may go Gray and Holmes. I just doubt Gray is the 3rd best pitcher they sign. Maybe Gray for 2 years and Holmes for 3. Then someone like Soroka, Taira or May for 3.

They don’t have the payroll for Gray to be their 3rd. I have a feeling, based on most of your posts, you are going to be very disappointed this off season. And this is even with them having a good off season.

Why? I mean I am fine with him on. Short deal. What what makes you think he is more likely a Cub than other pitchers? Not doubting you. Just curious as to your reasoning.

Of all the FA, he is the one I am most confident in saying the Cubs will not sign him.

But if they can do Skubal with some deferral money and bring him down to $40M for team payroll purposes that gives them $50M to work with. Holmes at $18-$20M, Taira, Soroka or Paterson, plus a few other options, at $12M-$15M leaves $15M to $20M. If they stick with Ayers at catcher and Shaw, Alcantara and Ramirez all are on the team they need 3 guys. One can be either BJ Murray it Triantos. Now we need 2 bench bats. They can probably fo something like Bauer and Ward and come in close $20M. But if not they can probably pick from guys like Conforto, Taylor, Ward, Robert, Bell and several others in the $6M to $10M range to fill 2 spots. That is a pretty good team and within budget. For Skubal I would like to see something like 7/$315 with a. 8th year at the same annual if he either pitches 1,000 over the 7 years with the team, 450 innings over the last 3 years of his contract or 150 innings the last year of his deal. If any of those happens the 8th year kicks in as an option for him. And again, enough deferred to lower the contract for team payroll purposes to $40M annually. Maybe they can go over a little and still sign someone like Civale as a swing option.

Anything that guarantees there will be action in November with FA is a positive, as far as I am concerned. At least by the lockout we will know if the Cubs have Taira or not.

This is pretty much how I see it too. If they do lose tonight and lose one division game and the game against the Bills that’s 5 losses. I would take my chances at 12-5. And, IMO, they would be favorite in any other games on their schedule. So take care of the division and win the games they’re supposed to win.

Of Taira is in that price level he works as well. There are a lot of guys they can go with as a 3rd pitcher. But Soroka’s baseball savant page has a lot of red.

If the Cubs don’t get it done with Skubal I would like to see Rogers, Holmes and Soroka. That should cost them $65M-$70M. That should give them enough money to add a few bats and give the last bench spot to someone like Triantos or Murray. If not Soroka there are guys like Peterson or May. A few others as well. Soroka seems to have the best stuff among the pitchers that shouldn’t cost $20M annually. He also might be willing to go short term to build his value. So playing with a great defense may appeal to him. Let Ayers be the back up catcher and Shaw, Ramirez and Alcantara all on the team.

How is that possible. What a game that must have been.

Was this necessary? Struck me as poor taste.

Hoping to see the lions win today against the Vikings, but if that happens and then bears lose in Seattle would they actually not be in the playoffs if the season ended this week? Kind of crazy to even consider such a thing.

Honestly, if Alcantara and maybe a pitcher in the low minors and maybe Triantos could land someone like Hancock or some other young pitcher making little money I wouldn’t object to something like that. Then maybe see about spending what you would have on a pitcher, on a bat instead. Maybe something like bringing Seiya back. Arozarena would be fine as wlll. Or see about Happ or Bauer in the $14M- $17M annual range. If you did that you can probably get away with adding guys like Ward, Robert, Taylor, Conforto (pick 2) as additional bats and then let that last spot be a kid in the system (Triantos- if not traded, or Murray, as examples) and they would still have anywhere between $50M and $65M to fill two pitching spots. Maybe even more. We really don’t know what Jed will be given to spend. I am just using $90M, give or take a few million, as a guide.

My issue is the pen is a place that fee fan bases loves. Period. Even if they add Morejon or Bednar I feel you and many others would complain every time the pen didn’t get the job done. And neither is a guarantee to be good next year. Brown in the pen could be just as good as Morejon or Bednar. I just don’t see value in passing a pen arm. Sure, if we KNEW he would be good, great. But we don’t.

Steele getting 170 innings is worthy of an eye roll. I’m not even sure he will be on the team.

I heard Sharma on the score this morning. He basically threw cold water on the Skubal idea. Did say he could see Holmes and/or Peterson signed and also look into King. He felt the team would be very active in trades. And he said he expects some consequencal moves in the next 30 days.

Health of Miller and Maton does add two pitchers to the pen. Zeferjahn coming over at the TDL does add to the pen. Garrett coming over at TDL adds to the pen. If Brown can’t start and has to pitch in the pen he also adds an arm. The pen wasn’t great. I agree. But health also played a part in its struggles. There is Riley Martin as well. There is enough there to be a good pen if healthy. Adding a pen arm doesn’t mean suddenly the pen will be good. I think good health in the pen will be what improves the pen more than another arm. Because even with another arm if they suffer the same amount of injuries as this past season it isn’t going to be good anyway. All pen arms come with concerns of consistency and/or health. Basically a middle reliever is that because he is too inconsistent to start or close. Or in the case of some good ones that are out there, there is an issue with being an injury risk or very old. So why would any FA be any different than what they already have?

Speaking of delusional, maybe I am doing the same thing. Maybe me thinking Webb, Zeferjahn, Palencia, Rolison and Brown is a solid core towards a lockdown pen, is delusional and trying to speak that into existence. Add Marton and Miller and maybe even Garrett and perhaps Jed already did the heavy lifting for this years pen.🤷 We obviously both want the same thing. A great Cubs team. And I think there is enough roads to that happening.

This would be a nice start.

I remember when I used to think like you do now. Then every off season they didn’t spend what I thought they would. Kind of tempers my enthusiasm a bit on them spending big. Especially since they extended out of their comfort last year. Maybe you are right. But I think I am going to side with the many who don’t agree with your idea of what they can or will spend. BTW, I do think they may spend $90M. I am not suggesting otherwise. But I don’t agree that is enough to get Skubal, spend another $20M on a top pitcher, $18M on a elite pen arm and $17M or so on a corner outfielder, and still have to fill 2 more bench spots and another starting pitcher. You are going to $115M+. I don’t see that. They can do some of this, but not all. And I don’t feel they have enough assets to pull of a trade of any consequence for a young starting pitcher. At least not without losing Shaw or Ramirez who I would rather keep.

You keep going back to putting together a bullpen on the cheap. I don’t think he is putting together a bullpen at all. I think he has it already. They have Zeferjahn, Palencia, Rolison and Webb all coming back. They have Maton and Miller who should be healthy. They have Garrett and Riley Martin to fight for a left handed spot in the pen. There is Assad for long relief. And if Brown can’t start but can pitch out of the pen that gives them another quality pen arm. Their pen is better equipped going into this off season than it has been in years. Those guys plus some guys like Hollowell, Ferguson, maybe Wiggins, maybe Horton come August, Roberts, maybe Hodge and that is the pen. Once we agree the pen isn’t going to be added to we are talking about around $50M to spend. Hopefully Skubal can have some deferral money in his contract bringing the cap total to $40M. If they have Ayers, Shaw, Alcantara and Ramirez all on the ML roster it leaves them with 3 spots to fill offensively. Maybe Triantos takes one. So they have 2 bats and 2 more starting pitchers to sign with $50M to work with. That should get them two bats from guys like Robert, Conforto, Taylor, Ward, Bell, etc…. One pitcher in the range of Holmes ($19-$22M) and one pitcher in the range of Peterson ($14-$16M) At most I can see someone like Civale brought back. But not because Jed is being cheap. Because he believes the pen is already pretty solid. Also a slight hedge against Steele and Brown coming back healthy and Cabrera becoming what they hoped he would be when they signed him.

I don’t the they have anything to trade to get a cheap good young pitcher. I would rather just sign a 3rd pitcher. If they sign just Skubal and Peterson they should have closer to $35-$40M to still spend.

That wasn’t really my point. I was just trying to figure out how they can maneuver $90M in additional payroll to get what they need after signing Skubal. Basically thinking out loud. And the pen isn’t a place I would spend money in anyway. I didn’t want to turn this into a Jed bashing of things he won’t do. I just hope the budget is $90M. If it is there are a lot of ways they can be good. And adding a pen arm would be way down my list.

Going to just respond to the last sentence. I absolutely agree. That is an awesome start. Then let’s watch the rest of the off season. I was just trying to see what a team could look like. And at $90M to spend they can make a very good team several different ways, even with Skubal taking a large chuck. Wasn’t meant to be doom and gloom “Jed won’t do anything after”. It was thinking outloud as to what they can do once they sign him.

He traded for Tucker and then traded Bellinger for nothing but salary relief. That is the definition of making a big move and then following it up with punting. Why not trade Bellinger for a pitcher who might make the same amount of money. If he was going all in he would do that. They have a budget. He will stick to it. I just hope it is a budget he can add $90M this season. I am not saying he will punt if he gets Skubal. I am just saying I hope the budget is where he can add $90M. Because if all it is, is Skubal and the. A bunch of cheap signings it will not be enough. I do believe Jed will do what he can and generally does a decent job in the off season. But if they sign Skubal I hope it signals they plan on living in the high end of what we hope they spend.