Rcal10

Why is avoiding playing in Phillie more important than avoiding playing in SD. Phillies are actually better on the road. SD has a very good home record. What is your concern about Phillie.

Well at least both the Phillies and Padres have a tougher schedule the last 9 games than the Cubs. Phillies have Milwaukee while the Padres have the Dodgers. Both LA and Milwaukee could still be trying for best record. Then the last 3 games the Phillies have TB while SD, has Arizona. Kind of hope Arizona can win a few and stay within 3 of SD. At least stay jnterested for the first game and if they win, the next one too. Cubs have Boston who will be locked in the 5th spot when they play. As for TB, they have some incentive. Best record of the 2 teams in the WS gets home field. So they may want to win too. Not like they have to rest pitchers. They have a 4 day break at the end of the season.

While I agree with what you are saying about Palencia, Rolison & Webb, why are you leaving out Zeferjahn? Did you forget about him or purposely leave him out? Also, why can’t Civale work a high pressure 7,8 or even 9th inning. Doesn’t matter who. They just need to find guys who can get the job done.

But in the end, in the playoffs., all I care about is run prevention. I don’t care if a teams staff has a better WAR in the playoff than the Cubs. I care about the Cubs scoring more runs then that team in at least one more game then they score more than us. If it happens because the Cubs defense saves them or the opponents defense didnt make a play, I couldn’t care less. Don’t care how we get to not allowing runs. Just want them to not allow them.

And two of those starters the Cubs hit hard. Didn’t face wheeler.

The other reason I could see Shota going #3 in the divisional round is he probably won’t pitch against the Brewers. He is pretty bad against them. So use him 3rd and then when he comes up again, maybe it is Peterson. For that matter, if the Cubs win the first game, maybe Shota goes second. Would leave a possibility of Gausman and Boyd going the first two against Milwaukee.

To me, expectations is too strong a work. I don’t “expect” the Cubs to win the WS. I just disagree with fans who suggest there is no way they can. They are a very good, flawed, team. They deserve to be where they are and CAN beat anyone.

I don’t understand how the Phillies can have a pitching WAR of 29 and the Cubs team WAR is less than 2, while the Phillies have given up 24 less runs than the Cubs. To me, that means WAR is a flawed way to determine how many runs a team will give up. I get it as a tool to evaluate a staffs potential. However, when you factor in the defense the pitcher is pitching in front of, the ability for a team to prevent runs is more important to me. The Cubs prevent runs around leave average. Just a little worse than league average. The Phillies prevent runs just a little better than league average. So why isn’t that the focus, and not pitching staffs WAR? Why is a very slightly below league average staff suddenly going to give up 6 runs a game to average offenses? They still pitch in front of that elite defense. Cubs offense, or ability to score runs is far greater than the Phillies. For that matter, not just the Phillies. Better than any team they meet in the post season. I break it down to the Cubs have a great offense, great defense and slightly below average at preventing runs. Staff might suck, but great defense brings it all the way up to just slightly below average.

Going one step further, it is easy to find someone who posts his beliefs one day and then a week later the exact opposite belief. Then when something happens, say how he was right about his belief. Of course he was. He had 2 exact opposite beliefs. One has to be right. But what you said is also true. I don’t see anyone arguing it is obvious the Cubs will win the WS. I think even the positive people, like myself, understand because it is hard to win a WS, the Cubs probably won’t. For me, anyway, my argument is, they can. Not they will. I have read too much about how people feel it is impossible for them to win.

Yep. They are good. The sad part of this is, even good, winning a WS is hard. Most likely they won’t. And when they won’t the naysayers will be all over it about how they knew they couldn’t win because of…… pick the reason. I have seen the excuse that when they get to the playoffs they won’t hit good pitching. Excuse 1 ready to go. The pen is so bad they can’t hold a lead. Excuse 2, ready. No starting pitching. Excuse 3 also ready. CC is a terrible manager and cost the Cubs the series. Excuse #4 In the end, whatever goes wrong will be what the naysayers KNEW all along. But the reality is they can win. But so can several other teams. Which is why it is hard to win a WS.

To be fair, even if/when the Cubs had a decent to even good pen, I was never confident in it. Also, we keep speaking about the Cubs pitching WAR. And I get it, it sucks. But come playoff time no one is going to care if the Cubs pitching WAR is bad, but because of defense they only give up 3 or 4 runs a game. Cubs team era is 17th, I believe. So just a little under league average. Why are they going to go from giving up an average of right around 4 runs a game to now, in the playoffs, give up 7? None of the possible first round opponents are offensive powerhouses. All around average. WAR is a great stat to use to show how a team is expected to perform over the course of the season. Come the playoffs, what matters is actual runs. I don’t care if a team hits more balls hard then the Cubs or if their hit expectancy is higher than the Cubs in a particular day. They are hitting the ball into the best defense in baseball. As someone say, maybe even you, when they go against the Dodgers and Brewers is the biggest fear. And I agree with that. But as Jason pointed out, they can play with anyone in a 5 or 7 game series. In the end, the pessimistic fans will most likely be right. They will lose a series. But not because it is obvious they will. Because there are 11 other teams in the playoffs and only 1 wins. I guarantee you that winning team has a fanbase of doomsday fans right now suggesting they can’t win because of a flaw they have.

But the Phillies era was based on facing bad offensive teams and good offensive teams, wouldn’t it stand to reason if they only played the best team in baseball they would give up more runs? BTW, the Cubs defense actually turns the worst staff based on WAR to a middle of the pack pitching staff. Isn’t the most important thing run prevention? If the Cubs prevent runs because of a great defense covering for a poor staff, does it really matter, as long as they win?

Again, why do they have to score 8. Stop acting like they can’t win games. I agree I am not confident in the pen. But they can win. If they don’t it will most likely be the pen. But please stop acting like there is no way they can win in the playoffs. This isn’t just you. I am talking about all the people who know they can’t win.

Well, tbf, they only needed 5 today. And how many did Atlanta score on Monday?

Yep, impossible for a 90 win team to beat another 90 win team. I mean, no chance!!!!

Yep, he might be important in the playoffs.

Exactly how did you come up with 21.75%. Cubs scored over 800 runs. PCA scored 114. Cubs drove in 770 runs, PCA drove in 104.

I think Shota has pitched himself into the discussion of who starts in the playoffs. At least if they face a team bad against lefties. And if it is in Wrigley with the wind blowing in, he would probably be a good choice. How crazy would it be if we face a bad team against lefties if the Cubs went Boyd, Peterson and Shota? Save Holmes in the event we win the series and face Milwaukee. I am sure that wouldn’t happen, just a crazy thought.

I would say he has reached his 100% potential. And he is only 24.

Or if PCA just improved a little offensively from last year they would probably be a low 8O’s to 85 win team. Good offense, great defense and horrible pitching. He is amazing, but the rest of the team doesn’t suck.

The only guy they have is PCA. The rest all suck😬

What significance does this have? How good would any team be taking their MVP off the team. Cubs have a historically good offense and defense. Without Pete it would be good to very good. Their issue is pitching. And he can’t help that.

I realize we are looking at this after the fact. But really PCA should go on the 1st or 2nd pitch. At that time we don’t know he is 2-0 to Seiya. All he did up until then was walk the lead off hitter. 40 SB aside, Pete need to run on Atlanta. Busch stole a base Monday.

I think he thought they were going home with the throw. At least he didn’t keep going and get thrown out before Busch scored.

Of him signing a 32 year old bat. Wouldn't that suggest Seiya is a possibility this off season more than Skubal?