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squally1313

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Everything posted by squally1313

  1. squally1313
    They won 92 games with a 4.5 win right fielder. If it’s World Series or bust, fine, then the people who complain about everything will be proven right 97% of the time. But it was very cool having those three playoff games at wrigley and winning the series and Tucker was absolutely a key part of that.
  2. squally1313
    They traded for a 4-5 win baseball player who put up 4.5 wins and we won home field advantage for the wild card by 2 games and then won that series and it was really cool. I know that stuff is in the past and therefore doesn’t matter or whatever, but we really need to stop fetishizing banking future wins at the expense of being good now. Bellinger at $25m vs Tucker (a better player) at $16m is maybe Matt Boyd in terms of the difference in salary.
  3. squally1313
    Feel like the one thing we’re missing this series, probably because he’s a bad hitter playing a premium offensive position, is some big Cam Smith moment so that people can complain about trading for the 4.5 fWAR guy last year again.
  4. squally1313
    I really think you need to conceptualize how bad today’s offenses are compared to the offenses the majority of us grew up with. for the overall season, we are the 4th or 5th best offense in baseball. I would assume ‘cubs offense in the games we lose’ would be roughly in line with ‘other teams offense in the games they lose’. The general opinion here seems to be ‘this was a historically amazing offense for a month, with the same players that were a top 5 offense last year, but actually it sucks’ which seems a little crazy to me.
  5. squally1313
    Lineup construction doesn’t matter but I would love to have someone explain PCA in the lead off spot
  6. squally1313
    The team that is the worst lineup in baseball an overwhelming majority of the time is 4th or 5th in wRC/wOBA this year, so those brief moments that aren’t the overwhelming majority, they must be the greatest offense in baseball/sports history
  7. squally1313
    Well the multiple 10 game winning streaks were really cool, hopefully you caught those, and showed that, when they time everything right, they’re capable of being one of the best teams in baseball. This is a really ****** stretch and there are some very obvious holes in the roster, both self inflicted and injury driven, but better to this in may than in October. since the beginning of last year they’re 121-93 (besides the .500 record in playoff games). Could be better, sure, could be a lot worse.
  8. squally1313
    Yay small ball
  9. squally1313
    (Our bad pitchers pitch badly) what if we switch the batting order up and also maybe execute Ian Happ
  10. squally1313
    It’s always Happ and Swanson though, isn’t it? they had a day off yesterday. Whatever arguments you can make about a breather helping is countered by the concept of needing to see continued PAs. We also want to win baseball games and the guys that are playing are pretty definitely the best options compared to the alternatives. Did we bench Michael Busch for multiple games?
  11. squally1313
    Kevin alcantara is still a cub because A. Jed is overly risk averse and B. PCA has an injury prone profile, and he can moonlight as a worse version of PCA. Him playing corner outfield in the major leagues is a lot like playing Matt Shaw out there. You’re wasting his best talent (good defense at a premium position) and he can’t hit nearly good enough to justify the spot. But Matt Shaw is probably a better hitter.
  12. squally1313
    Yeah we should bench the 123 wRC guy because of his 33.0% strikeout rate. That’s just too many strikeouts. In his place, let’s bring up the guy who has a 33.3% strikeout rate against significantly worse pitching. This is smart decision making.
  13. squally1313
    There’s some monkey paw horsefeathers about the 2025 cubs refusing to get swept and winning 5.5 of every 10 games and people complaining about the competent mediocrity and then them doing this so far this year.
  14. squally1313
    We need to keep him around to be a backup infielder in case of injury??? Have you seen our rotation?
  15. squally1313
    I can find them just fine, taking advantage of them is a different story am I right fellas
  16. squally1313
    -1 outs above average in 1040 innings at third. Are you talking about trading someone else? also like, that article implies heavily that we’d need to beat out preller and Friedman being irrational. That goes both ways right? ‘Hey everyone, we’re trading Matt Shaw for two months of skubal. Does anyone want to offer anything better? He’s valuable-ish but we have no real use for him’
  17. squally1313
    Yeah I struggle to think of a trading partner where the other team gives up a piece that noticeably improves our team and also has multiple years of control and all they get back is a league average hitter (generously) with positional flexibility. If he can get you a needle mover, even if it's a 10 week needle mover, this is the time/year to do it.
  18. squally1313
    https://fansided.com/mlb/mlb-insider-what-could-the-detroit-tigers-get-in-a-tarik-skubal-trade
  19. squally1313
    Come on man. 29-21 without Steele. 26-17 without Horton. Cabrera has a blister. You will find no bigger ally on ‘the pitching staff is a disaster’ than me, but it’s been a disaster and we’re on a 94 win pace a third of the way through the year. The offense/defense combo is really, really good. If you’re going to say we played like the worst team in the NL for 27 games (probably statistically true) then you also have to say we played like the best team in baseball history for the other 23. The solution to the problems of a 29-21 team are right in front of everyone. For what it’s worth, we’re +380 to miss the playoffs. We’re (slight) betting favorites to win the division, even though we’re apparently cursed by beer cheese or whatever.
  20. squally1313
    The padres/brewers were projected to be good teams and have so far played above projections through a third of the season. If you only look at the games they lost though, they’re actually pretty terrible, so maybe we should look to see who they might be selling.
  21. squally1313
    Is it really a huge assumption though
  22. squally1313
    This is maybe over generalizing here, but everything discussed above is simultaneously valid evidence for why we’re only 9 games over 500 through 50 games and not, say, 11 or 12 games over, and good, predictive signs that we’ll score more runs in those situations in the future.
  23. squally1313
    I don't really care about 'shaking things up' and don't really see any point in yanking people up and down over sample sizes of 2-3 weeks. That being said, the best hitters on your team, based on large sample sizes, are Busch, Suzuki, Bregman, and Happ, and they should get more PAs than anyone else (setting aside handedness concerns).
  24. squally1313
    I was surprised that he's only had 24 PAs in May. That seems low after his start but....that's why he's the 10th man. The numbers in those 24 PAs are really bad (045/125/045), which I think is a combination of: BABIP, it being really hard to hit in limited opportunities, and him being a career 93 wRC, .301 wOBA/.301 xwOBA hitter. On the last point, obviously you shouldn't expect him to hit .045, but it justifies his current position as the odd man out because there are 9 guys on the roster (besides Conforto, whatever is going on there) that are better hitters than he is.
  25. squally1313
    Yeah theoretically there's no reason why a team can't rip off two ten game win streaks and then also win 5.86 (95 win pace divided by 162) of every 10 games besides that. But....there's not a lot of teams that have won 103 games in a season, so at some point you have to realize that's just, based on mountains and mountains of data, not how it works.
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