squally1313
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Everything posted by squally1313
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Luck (BABIP, sequencing) and defense
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How will this team ever overcome mediocre pitching against elite pitchers
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Just weather the storm until burns comes out
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3/$27.5m after this year
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I think you guys are tilting at windmills trying to throw FG ratings at him, so in a...misguided attempt to engage.... I assume the implication here is that Dawson was pitched around because the rest of his team was terrible. If that's the case, why does he have so few walks? I suspect I'll probably lose you here, but in a non-metric/analytic way, the most important thing an offensive player can do in an at bat is not make an out. The league average OBP in 1987 was .331. Dawson's was .328. He was worse than league average at not making an out. Pete has a .375 OBP v a league average of .319. That's significantly better.
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setting up an alarm to drop 'maybe if they would have watched tape instead of watching horses they could have scored there' after they go 1-2-3 in the first
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It just came to me that I was forgetting about Boyd in these permutations. Then there's always the mysterious case of Justin Steele (no, Jason, I don't want you to tell me it's not going to happen)
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Looking ahead through the rotation, game 1 of the playoffs is 9/29 and Holmes last start is scheduled for 9/24, so if they want, they can throw him on normal rest in game 1. The only way things get a bit weird is if the last game of the year matters, which is scheduled to be Gausman. Would love to have that be Assad so that Holmes, Shota, Gausman are on 5, 6, 7 days rest, respectively.
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I think there will be plenty of Ohtani votes. I don't agree with it, but I can see it in a way. 85 innings at 2.9 is exceeding good. It's like, would you trade an all world defensive centerfielder with no bat for Adrian Morejon? You'd consider it right? And some people would do it in a heartbeat. But PCA just ran away with the offensive battle in the last couple months, more than enough to offset it.
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Opener isn't a bad idea. Probably depends on how much they trust Thielbar. Rolison has been very good against LHB, Thielbar much more of a mixed bag/tightrope act. I just wouldn't want to be left with one reliable LHP in the event we need to go to the pen in like, the 5th inning.
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Yeah I think the general message here is something that's giving me hope. Relievers are a fickle bunch. Maybe it's finding a grip or an arm slot, maybe it's rest, maybe it's pure BABIP/sequencing/dumb baseball luck. But Zeferjahn looked unpitchable right around the Chourio home run....and he's pitched 5 1/3 innings with 1 run and a 2.53 FIP since then. Not me saying that they are or could be good, or even average. But it doesn't seem to take much for a guy to put together a couple 'whoa' appearances. Just got to trust Counsell to keep cycling the guys and find who it's going to be in 12 days.
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The Phillies are interesting in that their 2 best hitters (Schwarber and Harper) are LHB, but Schwarber is pretty split neutral and then most of their other (bad hitters) are better against LHP, to the extent that they are 16th in wRC against LHP vs 28th in wRC against RHP. Maybe it was just me, but when I think Phillies offense I think those two, and I was trying to figure out how to stack LHPs while still using our top 2 starters. But really, I think it's pretty straightforward. Holmes then Gausman pretty normally, with Peterson and Rolison getting the top of their order at least once, and then Shota sees 12 guys and has a short leash from there.
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This is correct as written
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Yeah I'm sure that's a good bit of it. 121 HRs and a .316 wOBA against at home v 106 HRs and a .324 wOBA against on the road. 114/97 home/away HRs for the offense, 124/106 wRC home/away
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This is all fair. Probably painting with a broad brush, though I was particularly annoyed yesterday as we were watching (another) historic PCA performance, scoring a bunch of runs, and, most importantly to me, winning a three game series against a really good NL East team. Like....that was it, that was the path. And yet we threw Webb into a clearly low leverage position to try and get him right, he gave up a couple runs, and it was just endless 'well obviously this can't be successful' as I'm staring at a 5 run lead in the scorebug. We've given up more than 4 runs once in the last six games. The Brewers in the 7 games against us averaged a little under 6 runs, we held them to 4 or less 4 of the 7 times. The Brewers are really good, it's going to be tough if we play them. The Phillies aren't.
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I'm not totally sure how this whole 'most games with a home run given up' thing caught traction. It's a really hard stat to track down in terms of historic data, but I don't doubt whatever has been thrown out there (though if someone says it was AI then I will absolutely doubt it). But just to put a number on this, the Cubs are on pace to give up the 19th most home runs as a team since 2000. Certainly terrible, but I wouldn't call it 'historic' in the way that, say, the offense or PCA is performing.
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This isn't necessarily a counter, but am I reading it right that there have been 3 games since August 21st where the Cubs didn't have a lead?
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Luzurdo and Sanchez don't spend a lot of time going up against teams that have a 123 wRC against LHP. The four times they did, the Phillies went 1-3 and gave up 33 runs. Do they get different balls in October or something?
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It's hard to find historic comparisons. Yes, it's exceedingly rare for a team with this bad of pitching to have any success at all, much less postseason success. But if we accrue 1.1 more fWAR in the next 9 games (have 36.2 so far this year, so likely), this will be the fourth best offensive group this century.
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Yeah I'm not going to sit here and say that they're somehow going to be Good. But winning baseball games does not require a shutdown pen. All this specific complaining coming in a game thread where we beat an 89 win team (to win the series 2-1) in a game where our bullpen gave up 3 earned in 3 innings but it was fine because we scored 8 runs is like the perfect encapsulation.
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Close. The bullpen will pitch to a double digit ERA the rest of the year and also especially in the playoffs.
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The Phillies have given up 650 runs this year. Pitching is very good, Defense is mediocre (17th in baseball). The Cubs have scored 817 runs. Split the difference? 730ish. The pitching staff that the Cubs will never be able to overcome has given up 674 runs this year for us. The Phillies, facing an assortment of league pitching, have scored all of 681. The Cubs are just absolutely a better team, no matter what version of baseball you think they're playing. Here are the ten Phillies with the most PAs this year. It's gross.
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99.9% playoff odds. Though the goalposts have apparently moved from 'we're going to miss the playoffs' to 'we can't beat either of the two best teams in baseball in the NLDS' so that's fun. The important thing is to never admit they're good.
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This is so tiring. Why can’t we score a lot of runs in the playoffs? Because the average amount of runs scored goes down? But not for the teams we’re going to play, apparently?
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Speak for yourself. Our amazing offense was awesome, our incredible MVP was even more awesome. seriously, beating a good team 8-4 or 8-5 or whatever is basically the game plan for this team winning playoff games.
