Banks-Williams

Willie Castro is surely showing Hoyer his mistake for letting him get away. For some unexplained reason, Hoyer spent a fortune on the cheater Bregman who doesnt hit as good, has no speed, isn’t anywhere near as versatile, and wasnt even needed with Shaw’s abilities at 3rd.

I’d like to see Shaw and PCA as number 1 and 2 hitters. Both are hot and both have speed to move around the bases when they get on base. When Hoerner gets hot again, you can throw him into the mix. Cubbies are a team that hits homers but can also manufacture runs. Put Busch, Happ, and Suzuki behind the hitters with speed and the runs will happen early in the game, giving the pitchers a nice buffer.

Swanson must change his swing. His stubborn insistence on using that leg kick has got him a batting average in the 180s. He’s paid millions of Federal Reserve Notes every year, but he hits like he’s from college or high school. Dansby — you can’t make good contact when you move your upper body so much. Do golfers do that? Okay, Aaron Judge is an exception. But he too has his share of strikeouts, and you’ll never have his power no matter how big a leg kick you strive for in the batters box.

Swanson is being paid big bucks, but he hits 189. Now he just struck out with bases loaded. His leg kick is ruining his hitting. Again, the upper body movement is creating another unnecessary variable. Why do such when you already have to deal with ball speed, break, and location.

They need to play Shaw more often. He’s an excellent fielder, has great speed, and was hitting very good in April and into May. He should be playing at least every other game. If Shaw did an Amaya/Ohtani swing without the leg kick he’d be hitting above 275. It is his upper body movement that is holding him back. It makes him have bad contact too often. It creates a whole ‘nother variable, which is completely unnecessary.

You want PCA or Hoerner or Shaw as lead off men. If they get on base, they can steal second, and advance to third on a single or a fly ball Or they may score on the single from one of the three next batters. The steal also eliminates the opportunity to get doubled up on a grounder. You can also put them in the #2 spot for that reason. But then they’re on first with one out already. You don’t want a slow player as lead or #2 since they can get doubled up. Use these three players as #1 and #2 while mixing it up to keep them rested.

Nice to see Counsel giving some players a rest and mixing up the line-up. Great move Craig! Rested players perform much better. Don’t want to do another ‘69 Durocher.

Counsell and the media like to blame the Cubs losses on the weather, saying the Cubs haven’t had the best hitting conditions. Talk about ridiculous reasoning! Both teams play under the same weather. It is not like it changes from the top of the inning to the bottom. The reason the Cubs are losing is two-fold: (1) they’re leaving men on base, particularly yesterday against the Pirates, and (2) they’re leaving men bullpen is giving up too many runs. Swanson, Bregman, and Busch have not been hitting well. Futher, Jed Hoyer and Carter Hawkins spent too much money on the cheater Bregman, which could have been used to build a bullpen following the losses of Brad Keller and Drew Pomeranz. Riley Martin looks like he’s going to do good things in 2026, but now that Maton and others are on the IL the bullpen is hurting.

Bat speed is mainly important for the long ball. Higher bat speed increases the velocity of the ball towards the fence. Pitch speed also increases velocity of the ball towards the fence. But good contact contributes as well. Amaya has improved contact. That’s why his bat speed is not so important. Amaya has turned into a great hitter because he has improved contact. He is now doing something different from 95% of the hitters. I will not reveal what his secret is to improving contact, but I will tell you this: it is a function of physics and mathematics. Nearly all batters and batting coaches focus on irrelevant things to improve hitting. I focus on the actual science. It is understanding the science that makes hitters great. Amaya — whether he knows the reason or not — is using th key to great hitting. The Cub batters who don’t hit well, like Swanson, Bregman, Busch, and Shaw, all do the opposite of what Amaya does. They too could be great, but they’d have to have the science explained to them and they’d have to choose to implement it.

Mathew Boyd certainly deserves the opening day game. His pitching in 2025 was exceptionally good to say the least. Although he did get battered in game one of the NLDS, that wasn’t his doing. Counsell made the decision to pitch him on only 3 days rest even though he had a fully rested Asad ready to go. A fully-rested Boyd did a vintage performance in the Series on game 4, sending the series to game 5.

Javier Assad is picking up where he left off in the 2025 regular season. He is pitching exceptionally well: https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/baseball/world-classic-total-domination-javier-assad-delivers-a-masterful-start-in-mexico-vs-great-britain/ar-AA1XGoOu Had Assad got to pitch in the 2025 NLDS, things could have turned out better for the Cubs. Craig Counsell picked Mathew Boyd to pitch game 1 on only 3 days rest even though Assad was pitching better than Boyd at the end of the regular season, and Assad had a full 5 days rest. Milwaukee took advantage of Counsell’s poor decision, battering the Cubbies for 9 runs in the first two innings. Boyd only lasted 0.2 innings; six runs came in. And with men on base Counsell brought in the untested Soroka (he had only pitched 8.1 innings for the Cubs) who gave up 3 earned runs. But for reasons further unknown, Counsell choose not only to not pitch Assad, but he removed him from the roster all together even though Assad was best at keeping men on base from scoring — that is, Assad could have at least been used in relief. Counsell then doubled down on the Boyd-choice mistake by pitching Imanaga in game 2 even though Imanaga was a league leader in giving up home runs. Again the Cubs were pummeled: Imanaga gave up 5 hits — two of them homers —for four earned runs in 2.2 innings. The Cubs, despite a valiant effort, could not recover from the 0-2 deficit. Milwaukee took the NLDS 3-2. Hopefully Assad stays healthy so he can again assist in bringing some October games to Chicago. If he does so and keeps pitching like he’s doing, he’ll no doubt make the October roster in 2026, provided the bats don’t fade in July and August and the bullpen gets rebuilt.

One thing I should also have mentioned here is “lost opportunity cost”. When you put $175M into single person who isn’t really needed because your present guy is doing well — and because he’s young and will likely outperform in the coming years — you don’t have the means to pay for other players who are in fact needed. I just demonstrated that Bregman is not much better, if he is any better at all, than Shaw. Bregman is well behind Shaw in delivering “Effective Doubles”. And in other categories he isn’t much better. He certainly is not a better fielder, perhaps on par now, but even if so, Bregman is aging while Shaw is ripening. So … there was no need to blow $175M on a 3rd baseman. The Cubs needed two things for 2026: (1) a great utility player — a guy who could play most days at most positions to keep the team rested in the hot days of July and August. They didn’t get Castro until ~August 1 last year, after the Cubs began their slide in the summer heat. Counsell was playing his regulars too often. In short, Hoyer and Hawkins made Counsell do a 1969 Durocher. They needed someone like Davey Lopes. Enter Brendan Donovan. They also needed (2) to fill the bullpen. They could have kept Keller but evidently didn’t have the funds. They also could have purchased a couple more reliable guys like Keller. Instead of getting Donovan and three good relievers, they spent $175M on one guy who wasn’t even needed. And they’ve now got Counsell teaching their best defensive 3rd baseman how to play RF That is why I say, if Hoyer and Hawkins were managing my money like that, they’d both be gone. I don’t think the Cubs will win the division this year. They put too much money into ineffectual players like Bregman and Imanaga. Now they’re lacking in relief in the bullpen and, once again, in the field (come July and August). The July and August heat does take its toll on even the best players.

I never said it was the same as a double. That is why is it called an “effective” double. And yes, I have seen a base stealer bring the guy on second and/or third home many times. A base stealer does many beneficial things outside of a true double, like make the pitcher uneasy, which benefits the batter and the base runners. The pitcher is more likely to make a mistake when worrying about the guy on first, thereby allowing a home run or hit off the wall or in the gap. Further, the base stealer has the ability to get the pitcher, the catcher, and the fielders to make errors, enabling the base runners to advance and score in that manner. In other words, base stealers make things happen, and they do create runs. And most importantly, they make the game more exciting for the fans.

Just to show you how poor Hawkins and Hoyer are at their jobs, look at this: Bregman: Cost: $175m/5 = $35,000,000/year 2025 AB = 434, 2B = 28, SB = 1 effective 2B = 2B + SB = 29 Shaw: cost: $760k 2025, pre-arb 2026 2025 AB = 393, 2B = 21, SB = 17 effective 2B = 38; 2B adjusted for more Bregman ABs = 42. If Shaw had as many ABs as Bregman’s, he’d have ~42 effective 2B. That’s 45% more than Bregman in one season. Yet Hoyer and Hawkins pay > 40x more for Bregman, and Bregman is not a better defensive 3rd baseman than Shaw. If I owned the Cubs, both these guys would be relieved in short order.