2022-23 Offseason Thread (Cubs)

[Have a seat, Neifi]

Would honestly rather just pass on Swanson than give him 10/280 or whatever, but admittedly that’s probably just the meatball in me talking.

[Andy]

Would honestly rather just pass on Swanson than give him 10/280 or whatever, but admittedly that’s probably just the meatball in me talking.

Call me a meatball then, I don't think Swanson is gonna make enough of a difference to bother and I don't want to overpay the 5th best SS just to pretend we care about winning this year.

[WrigleyField 22]

So what does the projected 25/40 man depth roster even look like? They have lots of optionable guys right. If they don't sign Swanson, what are the likely holes they're filling with the leftover FA.

[gflore34]

That's Jed's only hope left - swing a blockbuster trade or two. Ohtani, Jansen, Lopez, Reynolds, Deevers, Varsho, etc. might be available for the right package of prospects.

 

I’m old enough to remember when Correa was the Only Hope left

 

Not that I’m getting all my hopes up but the meat of the offseason I wanted is still available: Swanson, Rodon, Varsho, Luzardo, prbly Ohtani, and even Matt Moore

 

Given what we've thus far seen of Hoyer do you really think it possible that he'll execute the overpay required to sign any of available big-name FAs? Overpaying seems very much to be Hoyer' kryptonite, a hard line he will not cross. The Cubs market is more like Chad Green, Jed Lowrie and whatever mediocre to bad players are in the bargain bin.

Edited December 14, 2022 by gflore34

[CubinNY]

So what does the projected 25/40 man depth roster even look like? They have lots of optionable guys right. If they don't sign Swanson, what are the likely holes they're filling with the leftover FA.

They have a pretty good SS right now. They have a good system with lots of prospects just below the horizon. Now was the perfect time to sign someone like Correra. They signed Belligner who is a placeholder, flip candidate. They have essentially the same team as last year. They needed to sign a TOR pitcher and a star quality position player. I expect that they will be around .500 with a chance to sneak into the playoffs with an overpay or two at the trade deadline. They need a 2nd baseman, a 1st baseman, and most importantly a catcher. They probably also need a 3rd baseman too.

 

I'm still hung up on why they let Contreras go.

[Irrelevant Dude]

 

Jesse Rogers again reiterating that the plan is to build from within first, then spend. The massive flaw in that strategy is, what happens if building from within doesn't pan out? While the minor league system is substantially improved over a few years ago, I still have concerns with how the current crop of minor leaguers are going to translate to Major League success. PCA is the consensus top prospect in the system and he might turn out to be a very good player, but does anyone really think he has a high enough ceiling to be a star? Beyond that, there are still a lot of question marks. Injuries have taken their toll on several other key prospects (including Brennen Davis), and those things happen and will continue to happen. There is unquestionably a lot of depth in the system, but if that depth ends up producing primarily relief pitchers, 5th starters, and 4th outfielders, then how much have we really improved from within?

 

I just can't shake the feeling that Jed is operating under a plan that relies on a perfect confluence of circumstances. First, we are dependent on developing a core of minor league players that can contribute at the major league level. That may take a couple more years, five years, or even longer. There are no Kris Bryant's coming this time, and the team likely won't be anywhere near a draft position again to pick another player of that caliber. Then, we have a window where we can spend money on long term deals and hope that players are available who fill the holes on the roster. Then, we compete for a few years and are back to dealing with the fallout of an aging core, because our front office seemingly doesn't know any other way.

 

It remains possible that Jed will execute the perfect plan and everything works out, but what is Plan B when it doesn't? Does Jed have the capability to stray from the course and get creative when other opportunities arise, or does he become paralyzed with inaction by continuing to follow a rigid plan for building a mid-market team.

[Andy]

If that really is the plan then it's starting to look like we were butt horsefeathering lucky to stumble into maybe the most quickly developing and successful core of prospects I can ever remember in baseball because our ceiling would've been 85 wins without it.

[CubinNY]

 

Jesse Rogers again reiterating that the plan is to build from within first, then spend. The massive flaw in that strategy is, what happens if building from within doesn't pan out? While the minor league system is substantially improved over a few years ago, I still have concerns with how the current crop of minor leaguers are going to translate to Major League success. PCA is the consensus top prospect in the system and he might turn out to be a very good player, but does anyone really think he has a high enough ceiling to be a star? Beyond that, there are still a lot of question marks. Injuries have taken their toll on several other key prospects (including Brennen Davis), and those things happen and will continue to happen. There is unquestionably a lot of depth in the system, but if that depth ends up producing primarily relief pitchers, 5th starters, and 4th outfielders, then how much have we really improved from within?

 

I just can't shake the feeling that Jed is operating under a plan that relies on a perfect confluence of circumstances. First, we are dependent on developing a core of minor league players that can contribute at the major league level. That may take a couple more years, five years, or even longer. There are no Kris Bryant's coming this time, and the team likely won't be anywhere near a draft position again to pick another player of that caliber. Then, we have a window where we can spend money on long term deals and hope that players are available who fill the holes on the roster. Then, we compete for a few years and are back to dealing with the fallout of an aging core, because our front office seemingly doesn't know any other way.

 

It remains possible that Jed will execute the perfect plan and everything works out, but what is Plan B when it doesn't? Does Jed have the capability to stray from the course and get creative when other opportunities arise, or does he become paralyzed with inaction by continuing to follow a rigid plan for building a mid-market team.

Plan B -Count da money and continue to buy land around Wrigley to soak the out of towners. The Ricketts have a gold mine at Clark and Addison. It is very clear that winning baseball games is not a priority.

[Bertz]

So what does the projected 25/40 man depth roster even look like? They have lots of optionable guys right. If they don't sign Swanson, what are the likely holes they're filling with the leftover FA.

 

A no shortstop offseason would have been a lot more viable if it was the plan from the beginning. Add an Abreu or Bell, go harder on SP, etc.

 

I think at this point the top tier no SS offseason is probably something like

 

- Trade for Danny Jansen

- Sign Nate Eovaldi

- Sign the best DH option available (Michael Brantley?)

- Sign someone who can cover 3B and/or SS. I'd prioritize offense and do someone like Justin Turner

- Go fairly hard on the bullpen, but guys who are already good rather than those you think you can make good, something like Taylor Rogers and Adam Ottavino

 

But like if they're drawing such a hard line on keeping the powder dry, even the above plan you have to have doubts around Jed's appetite for the modest prospect costs of Jansen and Eovaldi's QO.

[Tryptamine]

 

Jesse Rogers again reiterating that the plan is to build from within first, then spend. The massive flaw in that strategy is, what happens if building from within doesn't pan out? While the minor league system is substantially improved over a few years ago, I still have concerns with how the current crop of minor leaguers are going to translate to Major League success. PCA is the consensus top prospect in the system and he might turn out to be a very good player, but does anyone really think he has a high enough ceiling to be a star? Beyond that, there are still a lot of question marks. Injuries have taken their toll on several other key prospects (including Brennen Davis), and those things happen and will continue to happen. There is unquestionably a lot of depth in the system, but if that depth ends up producing primarily relief pitchers, 5th starters, and 4th outfielders, then how much have we really improved from within?

 

I just can't shake the feeling that Jed is operating under a plan that relies on a perfect confluence of circumstances. First, we are dependent on developing a core of minor league players that can contribute at the major league level. That may take a couple more years, five years, or even longer. There are no Kris Bryant's coming this time, and the team likely won't be anywhere near a draft position again to pick another player of that caliber. Then, we have a window where we can spend money on long term deals and hope that players are available who fill the holes on the roster. Then, we compete for a few years and are back to dealing with the fallout of an aging core, because our front office seemingly doesn't know any other way.

 

It remains possible that Jed will execute the perfect plan and everything works out, but what is Plan B when it doesn't? Does Jed have the capability to stray from the course and get creative when other opportunities arise, or does he become paralyzed with inaction by continuing to follow a rigid plan for building a mid-market team.

 

So it sounds like the plan is to try and replicate the historically great farm the Cubs had in 2014/2015 before going all in. A totally reasonable scenario and not at all completely unrealistic.

[Irrelevant Dude]

 

Jesse Rogers again reiterating that the plan is to build from within first, then spend. The massive flaw in that strategy is, what happens if building from within doesn't pan out? While the minor league system is substantially improved over a few years ago, I still have concerns with how the current crop of minor leaguers are going to translate to Major League success. PCA is the consensus top prospect in the system and he might turn out to be a very good player, but does anyone really think he has a high enough ceiling to be a star? Beyond that, there are still a lot of question marks. Injuries have taken their toll on several other key prospects (including Brennen Davis), and those things happen and will continue to happen. There is unquestionably a lot of depth in the system, but if that depth ends up producing primarily relief pitchers, 5th starters, and 4th outfielders, then how much have we really improved from within?

 

I just can't shake the feeling that Jed is operating under a plan that relies on a perfect confluence of circumstances. First, we are dependent on developing a core of minor league players that can contribute at the major league level. That may take a couple more years, five years, or even longer. There are no Kris Bryant's coming this time, and the team likely won't be anywhere near a draft position again to pick another player of that caliber. Then, we have a window where we can spend money on long term deals and hope that players are available who fill the holes on the roster. Then, we compete for a few years and are back to dealing with the fallout of an aging core, because our front office seemingly doesn't know any other way.

 

It remains possible that Jed will execute the perfect plan and everything works out, but what is Plan B when it doesn't? Does Jed have the capability to stray from the course and get creative when other opportunities arise, or does he become paralyzed with inaction by continuing to follow a rigid plan for building a mid-market team.

 

So it sounds like the plan is to try and replicate the historically great farm the Cubs had in 2014/2015 before going all in. A totally reasonable scenario and not at all completely unrealistic.

Don't forget the once-in-a-lifetime Arrieta trade where the Cubs lucked into a cheap ace for free. 2016 doesn't happen without that complete freak anomoly of a trade.

[soccer10k]

If I'm Jed, I'm calling the Angels and saying pick your five favorites.

 

Devers is the guy I want with Boston seemingly having no desire to retain marquee guys.

 

EDIT: At first I thought you meant Trout but then I remembered Ohtani existed. Ohtani would be amazing also.

Edited December 14, 2022 by soccer10k

[fromthestretch]

So what does the projected 25/40 man depth roster even look like? They have lots of optionable guys right. If they don't sign Swanson, what are the likely holes they're filling with the leftover FA.

 

A no shortstop offseason would have been a lot more viable if it was the plan from the beginning. Add an Abreu or Bell, go harder on SP, etc.

 

I think at this point the top tier no SS offseason is probably something like

 

- Trade for Danny Jansen

- Sign Nate Eovaldi

- Sign the best DH option available (Michael Brantley?)

- Sign someone who can cover 3B and/or SS. I'd prioritize offense and do someone like Justin Turner

- Go fairly hard on the bullpen, but guys who are already good rather than those you think you can make good, something like Taylor Rogers and Adam Ottavino

 

But like if they're drawing such a hard line on keeping the powder dry, even the above plan you have to have doubts around Jed's appetite for the modest prospect costs of Jansen and Eovaldi's QO.

 

 

In this scenario, which is far from ideal, do you get someone like Segura for 2B (keeping Hoerner at SS), or do you sacrifice a live chicken in the hopes that it wakes up Madrigal's bat?

[JeffH]

In this scenario, which is far from ideal, do you get someone like Segura for 2B (keeping Hoerner at SS), or do you sacrifice a live chicken in the hopes that it wakes up Madrigal's bat?

 

Play Morel at 2B every day to start the season. If Madrigal shows up with a reworked body and performs in the minor leagues, then you can perhaps readjust depending on how Morel is doing.

[Derwood]

In this scenario, which is far from ideal, do you get someone like Segura for 2B (keeping Hoerner at SS), or do you sacrifice a live chicken in the hopes that it wakes up Madrigal's bat?

 

Play Morel at 2B every day to start the season. If Madrigal shows up with a reworked body and performs in the minor leagues, then you can perhaps readjust depending on how Morel is doing.

 

Nico Hoerner exists

[Bobson Dugnutt]

In this scenario, which is far from ideal, do you get someone like Segura for 2B (keeping Hoerner at SS), or do you sacrifice a live chicken in the hopes that it wakes up Madrigal's bat?

 

Play Morel at 2B every day to start the season. If Madrigal shows up with a reworked body and performs in the minor leagues, then you can perhaps readjust depending on how Morel is doing.

 

Nico Hoerner exists

[Derwood]

 

Play Morel at 2B every day to start the season. If Madrigal shows up with a reworked body and performs in the minor leagues, then you can perhaps readjust depending on how Morel is doing.

 

Nico Hoerner exists

 

How many times do I need to tell you....I DON'T READ POSTS

[imb]

 

Nico Hoerner exists

 

I DON'T ... POST

 

if only. just kidding.

[Tryptamine]

So what does the projected 25/40 man depth roster even look like? They have lots of optionable guys right. If they don't sign Swanson, what are the likely holes they're filling with the leftover FA.

 

A no shortstop offseason would have been a lot more viable if it was the plan from the beginning. Add an Abreu or Bell, go harder on SP, etc.

 

I think at this point the top tier no SS offseason is probably something like

 

- Trade for Danny Jansen

- Sign Nate Eovaldi

- Sign the best DH option available (Michael Brantley?)

- Sign someone who can cover 3B and/or SS. I'd prioritize offense and do someone like Justin Turner

- Go fairly hard on the bullpen, but guys who are already good rather than those you think you can make good, something like Taylor Rogers and Adam Ottavino

 

But like if they're drawing such a hard line on keeping the powder dry, even the above plan you have to have doubts around Jed's appetite for the modest prospect costs of Jansen and Eovaldi's QO.

 

 

In this scenario, which is far from ideal, do you get someone like Segura for 2B (keeping Hoerner at SS), or do you sacrifice a live chicken in the hopes that it wakes up Madrigal's bat?

 

Not that it's great, but after his return from injury on 8/4 he did put up a 95 wRC+. That's greatly improved from the 47 wRC+ he put up in the 115 PAs before that. As a 100-105 w RC+ guy he's probably a 3 fWAR player.

[Bertz]

In this scenario, which is far from ideal, do you get someone like Segura for 2B (keeping Hoerner at SS), or do you sacrifice a live chicken in the hopes that it wakes up Madrigal's bat?

 

Play Morel at 2B every day to start the season. If Madrigal shows up with a reworked body and performs in the minor leagues, then you can perhaps readjust depending on how Morel is doing.

 

My intention was to have Madrigal in the lineup in pencil to start out, with Morel nipping at his heels, and also playing a decent amount of 3B since Turner's a bit iffy over there already and at his age could quickly go from kinda bad to really bad. But having it the other way around and making Madrigal earn his way into the lineup is plenty fair.

 

But yeah, the non-Swanson outcomes are ugly. The fact that the above is pretty much the best realistic scenario I can dream up is dark.

[Backtobanks]

That's Jed's only hope left - swing a blockbuster trade or two. Ohtani, Jansen, Lopez, Reynolds, Deevers, Varsho, etc. might be available for the right package of prospects.

 

I’m old enough to remember when the Only Hope was Carlos Correa

 

Not that I’m super optimistic but the meat of the ideal offseason, as I saw/sees it, is available…Swanson, Rodon, Varsho, Luzardo, Ohtani, even Matt Moore

 

Edit: Phone is trying to get me to buy a new one…weird

 

I meant Jed's only hope to possibly save his job, not the only hope to build a championship team (because that ain't happening)

[Transmogrified Tiger]

So what does the projected 25/40 man depth roster even look like? They have lots of optionable guys right. If they don't sign Swanson, what are the likely holes they're filling with the leftover FA.

 

A no shortstop offseason would have been a lot more viable if it was the plan from the beginning. Add an Abreu or Bell, go harder on SP, etc.

 

I think at this point the top tier no SS offseason is probably something like

 

- Trade for Danny Jansen

- Sign Nate Eovaldi

- Sign the best DH option available (Michael Brantley?)

- Sign someone who can cover 3B and/or SS. I'd prioritize offense and do someone like Justin Turner

- Go fairly hard on the bullpen, but guys who are already good rather than those you think you can make good, something like Taylor Rogers and Adam Ottavino

 

But like if they're drawing such a hard line on keeping the powder dry, even the above plan you have to have doubts around Jed's appetite for the modest prospect costs of Jansen and Eovaldi's QO.

 

If you whiff on a SS, then to me the priority is taking as many swings as you can on guys who have at least some chance of giving you star level production, preferably beyond 2023. Since you haven't signed a QO guy and you've gotten your Willson pick, I think you need to be aggressive in the trade market, which coincidentally is the best place to do that.

 

You mentioned Jansen, he would qualify and is probably the only realistic C option.

 

Rogers and Luzardo from the Marlins would be natural places to shop for SP, as would Bieber if the Indians are making him available(seems doubtful at the moment).

 

With trade targets you don't have to sell a player on PT so you can look to the OF for the bat-first player if you want. Kelenic, Pratto, maybe one of the Twins excess bats.

 

At third base the obvious first stop is Devers, especially if the Red Sox keep striking out on FA targets(remember Mookie was traded in February). You also need to really understand what you think of Morel, because if you're gonna bet on him then that could limit the MLB caliber pieces you have and therefore your potential trade partners.

[SouthSideRyan]

 

Nico Hoerner exists

 

How many times do I need to tell you....I DON'T READ POSTS

 

People bitched for years about Ryan Theriot, playing somebody at SS just gives Jed/Ricketts the excuse to not play somebody at SS going forward.

[Post Count Padder]

I need something to happen. Does Caissie and Luke Little get it done for Danny Jansen? How about Christian Hernandez and Triantos for Varsho? Give Rodon 7 years. Idk I'm just spit balling.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

One other trade situation worth monitoring is the Rays middle infield. Are they bearish on Lowe after his poor injury-hampered 2022? Are they willing to cut bait on Brujan's tools considering he's buried on the depth chart and they have multiple top 100 infielders getting close?