2022-23 Offseason Thread (Cubs)

[Cubswin11]

I’d rather have Segura than Dansby considering the price and just keep Nico at SS and Segura at 2B/3B.

[Tryptamine]

If we're down to filling out the team with Brandon Belt and Jean Segura then just go full tank, that team would need an absurd amount of variance to sneak into the playoffs.

[17 Seconds]

I’d rather have Segura than Dansby considering the price and just keep Nico at SS and Segura at 2B/3B.

 

jesus this offseason is a nightmare

[CubinNY]

If we're down to filling out the team with Brandon Belt and Jean Segura then just go full tank, that team would need an absurd amount of variance to sneak into the playoffs.

I think they can sneak into the playoffs right now without adding another player with playoff expansion. The Cardinals appear to be the only team in the division actively trying to win in addition to the Cubs, more or less.

 

It use to drive me crazy when Hendry and MacPhail would say they wanted to be competitive within the division, but the more things change the more they stay the same (See, Carlos Beltran, 2005)

[mias_tisg]

If we're down to filling out the team with Brandon Belt and Jean Segura then just go full tank, that team would need an absurd amount of variance to sneak into the playoffs.

They're not making the playoffs with Swanson either so just punt another season if that's the plan

[Tryptamine]

If we're down to filling out the team with Brandon Belt and Jean Segura then just go full tank, that team would need an absurd amount of variance to sneak into the playoffs.

I think they can sneak into the playoffs right now without adding another player with playoff expansion. The Cardinals appear to be the only team in the division actively trying to win in addition to the Cubs, more or less.

 

It use to drive me crazy when Hendry and MacPhail would say they wanted to be competitive within the division, but the more things change the more they stay the same (See, Carlos Beltran, 2005)

 

How? The offense has gotten worse, the pitching is only marginally better from a team that finished 19 games out of the division and 13 games out of the WC last year.

[17 Seconds]

If we're down to filling out the team with Brandon Belt and Jean Segura then just go full tank, that team would need an absurd amount of variance to sneak into the playoffs.

They're not making the playoffs with Swanson either so just punt another season if that's the plan

 

swanson will be on the cubs for more than 1 year, they still need to add talent and get closer

[mias_tisg]

If we're down to filling out the team with Brandon Belt and Jean Segura then just go full tank, that team would need an absurd amount of variance to sneak into the playoffs.

I think they can sneak into the playoffs right now without adding another player with playoff expansion. The Cardinals appear to be the only team in the division actively trying to win in addition to the Cubs, more or less.

 

It use to drive me crazy when Hendry and MacPhail would say they wanted to be competitive within the division, but the more things change the more they stay the same (See, Carlos Beltran, 2005)

 

How? The offense has gotten worse, the pitching is only marginally better from a team that finished 19 games out of the division and 13 games out of the WC last year.

Keep in mind, you don't play your division as much with the new schedules. The Cubs aren't going to be able to rack up wins against the Reds and Pirates like years past. I think it's just 2 series each home and road.

[Cubswin11]

If we're down to filling out the team with Brandon Belt and Jean Segura then just go full tank, that team would need an absurd amount of variance to sneak into the playoffs.

They're not making the playoffs with Swanson either so just punt another season if that's the plan

 

swanson will be on the cubs for more than 1 year, they still need to add talent and get closer

Swanson is a 2.5-3.5 win player most likely and committing 9 figures to him in a lost season when he’s getting closer to 30 makes little sense to me. He’s not a guy and there’s ways to create his value for cheaper and try and thread a needle vs having him hamstring you when maybe we’re good in 2-3 years.

[17 Seconds]

They're not making the playoffs with Swanson either so just punt another season if that's the plan

 

swanson will be on the cubs for more than 1 year, they still need to add talent and get closer

Swanson is a 2.5-3.5 win player most likely and committing 9 figures to him in a lost season when he’s getting closer to 30 makes little sense to me. He’s not a guy and there’s ways to create his value for cheaper and try and thread a needle vs having him hamstring you when maybe we’re good in 2-3 years.

 

well i guess i'm just not down with giving up for 2-3 more years

[Bertz]

We are not even close to being that far off. I mean the team would project a smidge over .500 even if you just filled out the roster with boring dudes on 1 year deals.

[UMFan83]

Sorry for posting DOM, he's the only one I've seen recap this interview

 

 

Jed does know that he won't be here to see the 2018 scenario play out if he doesn't pull the trigger on these deals right? What I don't get is, if he's so scared of that scenario happening, why did he even take the job? Were they in alignment that he could run the team like a mid-market team while they went through this rebuild and fan angst has caused them to change their tune? Not defending Jed but he's gotta be frustrated that they deflected all the pressure onto him.

Edited December 12, 2022 by UMFan83

[17 Seconds]

theo is the big winner here

[mias_tisg]

Here's the thing though, if you're scared about the money down the line, then trade for Sean Murphy. The Cubs front office has never been creative enough to trade for good hitters with team control left like other good front offices do.

[mias_tisg]

Sorry for posting DOM, he's the only one I've seen recap this interview

 

 

Jed does know that he won't be here to see the 2018 scenario play out if he doesn't pull the trigger on these deals right? What I don't get is, if he's so scared of that scenario happening, why did he even take the job? Were they in alignment that he could run the team like a mid-market team while they went through this rebuild and fan angst has caused them to change their tune? Not defending Jed but he's gotta be frustrated that they deflected all the pressure onto him.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

We are not even close to being that far off. I mean the team would project a smidge over .500 even if you just filled out the roster with boring dudes on 1 year deals.

 

Even with modest projections for their offense, I think it's understated just how dramatic an upgrade Swanson and Mervis would be over the production they got from those positions last year. They were 25th in CF WAR. If they're at all right about how much Willson was giving back defensively and they add a C with a better bat than Gomes they may very well have parity there too.

 

I would rather they sign Correa regardless, but a lot of my view on the offseason hinges on if ownership actually has the appetite to go over the LT this year. If they don't, then the likely outcome here isn't exactly how I would play it out, but with the number of holes and the market being higher than expected I can at least appreciate the logic. That starts with Swanson being the 'settling' outcome though, you can't whiff on a SS.

[17 Seconds]

how long until some variation of "it takes 2 sides to make a deal" comes out of jed's mouth?

[NOLA]

[Cubswin11]

 

swanson will be on the cubs for more than 1 year, they still need to add talent and get closer

Swanson is a 2.5-3.5 win player most likely and committing 9 figures to him in a lost season when he’s getting closer to 30 makes little sense to me. He’s not a guy and there’s ways to create his value for cheaper and try and thread a needle vs having him hamstring you when maybe we’re good in 2-3 years.

 

well i guess i'm just not down with giving up for 2-3 more years

Signing Swanson really doesn’t help the next 2-3 years if they don’t add a real star and the 1-2 year vet deals can bring as much value without the money outlay for a guy who’s just a guy, imo. Maybe things break right enough they make a WC game and done have a burden of 9 figures on Swanson.

[Tim]

Here's the thing though, if you're scared about the money down the line, then trade for Sean Murphy. The Cubs front office has never been creative enough to trade for good hitters with team control left like other good front offices do.

Jansen is still out there.

[Tryptamine]

They're not making the playoffs with Swanson either so just punt another season if that's the plan

 

swanson will be on the cubs for more than 1 year, they still need to add talent and get closer

Swanson is a 2.5-3.5 win player most likely and committing 9 figures to him in a lost season when he’s getting closer to 30 makes little sense to me. He’s not a guy and there’s ways to create his value for cheaper and try and thread a needle vs having him hamstring you when maybe we’re good in 2-3 years.

 

I'm not thrilled on Swanson, but this is pretty hard underselling him. He was worth 3.4 fWAR in 2021 when he put up a .297 babip, 50 points below what he's done in '20 and '22. In 22 he put up a 6.4fWAR and in '20 he put up 2.3fWAR in 60 games.

[mias_tisg]

The best way to build a roster in baseball is to draft and sign young talent and develop that talent. And then after that talent is developed, you take that talent and either supplement your roster or you trade that talent for established talent with years of team control left. That's why I've always thought Theo and Jed were the problem (post 2016) and not the owners. Even if the owners aren't spending what we want, you can still acquire talent via trades, especially since the Cubs prospect pool is actually deep as hell now. Spending crazy money in free agency should really only be a last case scenario to finish off a team that is a contender.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Swanson is a 2.5-3.5 win player most likely and committing 9 figures to him in a lost season when he’s getting closer to 30 makes little sense to me. He’s not a guy and there’s ways to create his value for cheaper and try and thread a needle vs having him hamstring you when maybe we’re good in 2-3 years.

 

well i guess i'm just not down with giving up for 2-3 more years

Signing Swanson really doesn’t help the next 2-3 years if they don’t add a real star and the 1-2 year vet deals can bring as much value without the money outlay for a guy who’s just a guy, imo. Maybe things break right enough they make a WC game and done have a burden of 9 figures on Swanson.

 

If you want to bank a consistently 3+ win player for several years and he's not post-prime already, it's gonna cost you 20+ million in this market. We can talk about how it'd be better to get Correa or have been more aggressive for Bogaerts/Turner, and I'm sure if they sign Swanson we won't be in love with the AAV, but the downside of taking on Swanson's risk is a marginal one. Even without payroll changing they've got 70 million to replace 2 OF and 1 SP next year(with multiple top 100-caliber prospects as internal options for all 3) so this isn't their only bite at the apple too.

[17 Seconds]

 

pulling the rug out from theo right before harper was so bad that it is in our GM's head several years later

[champaignchris]

 

pulling the rug out from theo right before harper was so bad that it is in our GM's head several years later

 

I can't really say I blame him. Although as was asked up thread, why did he even take the job if this were the case?

 

I don't know what happened in October/November of 2018, but everything about this franchise seemed to change then. I'm sure it will someday make for a great book. Anyway, this has been a relentlessly fiscally conservative franchise ever since. But it's been penny smart, pound foolish the whole time.