2022-23 Offseason Thread (Cubs)

[mias_tisg]

I'm going to puke when the Cubs give Dansby Swanson 8+ years

[Thusly Boned]

So another of the SS goes for 11 years. Jed still drawing a hard line in the sand at 6 years?

 

I don't know, but 11 years for a 30 year old SS seems...ill advised to me.

 

I'm going to puke when the Cubs give Dansby Swanson 8+ years

 

I don't want Swanson, but I'd rather give him 8 years than Bogaerts 11.

 

Here's hoping for Correa, but if teams are handing out 10 and 11 year deals to 30 year old SS, I don't think there's much chance he goes for fewer than 12.

[SpongeWorthy]

Is there a reason why everyone on Twitter is all the sudden extremely negative about the cubs chances at the SS? Maybe I missed something.

 

It’s one thing to say “oh no the rumors dried up today” but it seems like people are already doing a post mortem on why the cubs didn’t get any of them

 

Mostly because people on Twitter are super melodramatic. Also at the moment it seems like the most likely to be a Cub is Swanson, which some people are varying to degrees of unhappy with.

also because cubs fans can twist themselves into knots and take shrapnel for billionaires who don’t know they exist while the padres can shoot the money cannon

[sweetpeteman]

Correa is going to be asking at least $350m at this point.

 

I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up 400/12.

 

 

I don't know if I expect that, but I wouldn't be surprised.

[SpongeWorthy]

Correa is going to be asking at least $350m at this point.

 

I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up 400/12.

 

 

I don't know if I expect that, but I wouldn't be surprised.

the cubs paying 400/12 for Correa and him not living up to the deal will have no effect on your life

[sweetpeteman]

Correa is going to be asking at least $350m at this point.

 

I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up 400/12.

 

 

I don't know if I expect that, but I wouldn't be surprised.

the cubs paying 400/12 for Correa and him not leaving up to the deal will have no effect on your life

 

 

At what point did I say it would?

[SpongeWorthy]

because the padres are demonstrating all this management speak for responsible spending, sustainability blah blah is just propaganda

[soccer10k]

Is there a reason Swanson is even being mentioned in the same breath as the other three SS other than they're all SS? Because he's been significantly worse than the other three over the course of his career.

 

If he gets anywhere close to the money/years these other guys are getting, I don't want the Cubs anywhere near him.

[Thusly Boned]

Correa is going to be asking at least $350m at this point.

 

I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up 400/12.

 

 

I don't know if I expect that, but I wouldn't be surprised.

the cubs paying 400/12 for Correa and him not living up to the deal will have no effect on your life

 

I mean it would insofar as it would dissuade our stingy owners from making similar expenditures, and potentially hamstring the front office's ability to do things. Which would make it harder for my favorite team to do well. So yeah, it'd kinda have an effect.

 

Should it? Of course not, but it would, because stingy gonna be stingy. It's the reality we're living in.

[soccer10k]

So another of the SS goes for 11 years. Jed still drawing a hard line in the sand at 6 years?

 

I don't know, but 11 years for a 30 year old SS seems...ill advised to me.

 

I heard it suggested somewhere that the extra couple years are to get the AAV down. If a player wants $250M, he knows he's unlikely to get another deal at 38 or 40 regardless. So stretch it over 11 years instead of 8.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The Padres were plenty luxury tax conscious with their moves over the summer, and also they haven't won 90 games since 2010, so I'm more than a little skeptical of the framing that they're the ones working the league by not playing by the ownership class's rules.

[WrigleyField 22]

So another of the SS goes for 11 years. Jed still drawing a hard line in the sand at 6 years?

 

I don't know, but 11 years for a 30 year old SS seems...ill advised to me.

 

I heard it suggested somewhere that the extra couple years are to get the AAV down. If a player wants $250M, he knows he's unlikely to get another deal at 38 or 40 regardless. So stretch it over 11 years instead of 8.

Yea at a certain point the years on these deals are just window dressing. And at least a lower AAV lowers the annual amount towards the tax cap right?

[Bertz]

That's honestly like $100M more than I'd be willing to give Bogaerts. What an absolutely silly contract. Especially after Trea Turner's deal, and especially with how loaded the Padres were in the infield already.

 

You have to wonder about a trade. I mentioned a week or two ago when the Padres SS rumors first picked up, but Machado with his opt out after this year would seem to be the most obvious choice. And while he's not a capable full time SS anymore he'd still fit most of what the Cubs are looking for. Similarly if Jake Cronenworth (assuming he can play left side of the IF) and Trent Grisham both make a lot of sense.

[chopsx9]

 

I don't know, but 11 years for a 30 year old SS seems...ill advised to me.

 

I heard it suggested somewhere that the extra couple years are to get the AAV down. If a player wants $250M, he knows he's unlikely to get another deal at 38 or 40 regardless. So stretch it over 11 years instead of 8.

Yea at a certain point the years on these deals are just window dressing. And at least a lower AAV lowers the annual amount towards the tax cap right?

 

It's like its semi-deferred and if he's still useful over the last few years its a bonus. What if he retires? They're off the hook right?

[chopsx9]

That's honestly like $100M more than I'd be willing to give Bogaerts. What an absolutely silly contract. Especially after Trea Turner's deal, and especially with how loaded the Padres were in the infield already.

 

You have to wonder about a trade. I mentioned a week or two ago when the Padres SS rumors first picked up, but Machado with his opt out after this year would seem to be the most obvious choice. And while he's not a capable full time SS anymore he'd still fit most of what the Cubs are looking for. Similarly if Jake Cronenworth (assuming he can play left side of the IF) and Trent Grisham both make a lot of sense.

 

I'd wondered earlier if they would dangle Tatis for a potential Ohtani trade.

[CubinNY]

That's honestly like $100M more than I'd be willing to give Bogaerts. What an absolutely silly contract. Especially after Trea Turner's deal, and especially with how loaded the Padres were in the infield already.

 

You have to wonder about a trade. I mentioned a week or two ago when the Padres SS rumors first picked up, but Machado with his opt out after this year would seem to be the most obvious choice. And while he's not a capable full time SS anymore he'd still fit most of what the Cubs are looking for. Similarly if Jake Cronenworth (assuming he can play left side of the IF) and Trent Grisham both make a lot of sense.

 

I'd wondered earlier if they would dangle Tatis for a potential Ohtani trade.

How are they able to stay under the LT threshold?

[Bertz]

So to level set post meetings:

 

- The Cubs seem to be the clear favorites for Swanson, and maybe not quite so clear but favorites for Christiam Vazquez

- Correa seems to be on the table, but only Gordon Wittenmeyer is emphatically banging that drum so they're likely on the periphery

- With Bogaerts signing in SD, the dual SS scenario appears dead

- Since the Taillon signing, I don't believe we've seen a link to any other SPs except maybe Senga. So I don't think we have a great feel for how big they're going on the other SP

- Post Bellinger, there haven't been any updates on the 1b/DH options being looked at, so again how big are they going here

 

Things are at sort of an interesting point. If the team pulls down Swanson and Vazquez as expected, there's only a bit over $20M left to spend under the Luxury Tax. That's kind of an awkward spot for us on the outside, because it's enough that you could reasonably fill out the rest of the roster if you skimp, but like you'd be sacrificing quite a bit on the margins. Spending a bit of a premium on Taillon and Bellinger just to end up here doesn't seem very Jed-like, but it's a real enough possibility that you have to stay mindful of it. After all I think many of us said the same thing after the team picked up Cole Hamels' option in 2019, and we all know how things proceeded from there.

[fromthestretch]

That's honestly like $100M more than I'd be willing to give Bogaerts. What an absolutely silly contract. Especially after Trea Turner's deal, and especially with how loaded the Padres were in the infield already.

 

You have to wonder about a trade. I mentioned a week or two ago when the Padres SS rumors first picked up, but Machado with his opt out after this year would seem to be the most obvious choice. And while he's not a capable full time SS anymore he'd still fit most of what the Cubs are looking for. Similarly if Jake Cronenworth (assuming he can play left side of the IF) and Trent Grisham both make a lot of sense.

 

I'd wondered earlier if they would dangle Tatis for a potential Ohtani trade.

How are they able to stay under the LT threshold?

 

Keep in mind, they have a decent chunk of salary coming off the books after 2023, with Darvish and Snell hitting free agency and Machado most likely opting out. I doubt they'll lose much sleep if they go over it for one season.

[Rex Buckingham]

Seems like we need a sort of consolidation trade - a few lower level pitchers and/or bats for a ML bat or a SP we can put at the top of the rotation

[We Got The Whole 9]

So to level set post meetings:

 

- The Cubs seem to be the clear favorites for Swanson, and maybe not quite so clear but favorites for Christiam Vazquez

- Correa seems to be on the table, but only Gordon Wittenmeyer is emphatically banging that drum so they're likely on the periphery

- With Bogaerts signing in SD, the dual SS scenario appears dead

- Since the Taillon signing, I don't believe we've seen a link to any other SPs except maybe Senga. So I don't think we have a great feel for how big they're going on the other SP

- Post Bellinger, there haven't been any updates on the 1b/DH options being looked at, so again how big are they going here

 

Things are at sort of an interesting point. If the team pulls down Swanson and Vazquez as expected, there's only a bit over $20M left to spend under the Luxury Tax. That's kind of an awkward spot for us on the outside, because it's enough that you could reasonably fill out the rest of the roster if you skimp, but like you'd be sacrificing quite a bit on the margins. Spending a bit of a premium on Taillon and Bellinger just to end up here doesn't seem very Jed-like, but it's a real enough possibility that you have to stay mindful of it. After all I think many of us said the same thing after the team picked up Cole Hamels' option in 2019, and we all know how things proceeded from there.

They're still taking to Smyly. I'm pretty much expecting him to be their final SP add.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

So to level set post meetings:

 

- The Cubs seem to be the clear favorites for Swanson, and maybe not quite so clear but favorites for Christiam Vazquez

- Correa seems to be on the table, but only Gordon Wittenmeyer is emphatically banging that drum so they're likely on the periphery

- With Bogaerts signing in SD, the dual SS scenario appears dead

- Since the Taillon signing, I don't believe we've seen a link to any other SPs except maybe Senga. So I don't think we have a great feel for how big they're going on the other SP

- Post Bellinger, there haven't been any updates on the 1b/DH options being looked at, so again how big are they going here

 

Things are at sort of an interesting point. If the team pulls down Swanson and Vazquez as expected, there's only a bit over $20M left to spend under the Luxury Tax. That's kind of an awkward spot for us on the outside, because it's enough that you could reasonably fill out the rest of the roster if you skimp, but like you'd be sacrificing quite a bit on the margins. Spending a bit of a premium on Taillon and Bellinger just to end up here doesn't seem very Jed-like, but it's a real enough possibility that you have to stay mindful of it. After all I think many of us said the same thing after the team picked up Cole Hamels' option in 2019, and we all know how things proceeded from there.

They're still taking to Smyly. I'm pretty much expecting him to be their final SP add.

 

They've also been linked to Bassitt a couple times.

 

I'm kinda intrigued by Tom's point that Bellinger may not be locked into CF, I thought I had heard someone in the FO describe him as a primary CF but couldn't find it. That could mean that if they did strike out on the SS you could pivot to Nimmo, but I also don't know if there's another reasonable target worth relocating Bellinger(Tom just pretend I said Varsho so you don't have to say it).

[David]

So to level set post meetings:

 

- The Cubs seem to be the clear favorites for Swanson, and maybe not quite so clear but favorites for Christiam Vazquez

- Correa seems to be on the table, but only Gordon Wittenmeyer is emphatically banging that drum so they're likely on the periphery

- With Bogaerts signing in SD, the dual SS scenario appears dead

- Since the Taillon signing, I don't believe we've seen a link to any other SPs except maybe Senga. So I don't think we have a great feel for how big they're going on the other SP

- Post Bellinger, there haven't been any updates on the 1b/DH options being looked at, so again how big are they going here

 

Things are at sort of an interesting point. If the team pulls down Swanson and Vazquez as expected, there's only a bit over $20M left to spend under the Luxury Tax. That's kind of an awkward spot for us on the outside, because it's enough that you could reasonably fill out the rest of the roster if you skimp, but like you'd be sacrificing quite a bit on the margins. Spending a bit of a premium on Taillon and Bellinger just to end up here doesn't seem very Jed-like, but it's a real enough possibility that you have to stay mindful of it. After all I think many of us said the same thing after the team picked up Cole Hamels' option in 2019, and we all know how things proceeded from there.

 

If Gordo, of all people, is the one banging the drum that the Cubs are in hard on a major free agent who wants a horsefeathers ton of money, that is probably more meaningful to me than national guys just having them in the mix but casting doubt probably due to Hoyer's "intelligent spending" comments.

 

That said, who the horsefeathers knows. It's a lot of horsefeathering money and nobody really has any idea what is going on.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

If I had to guess, I feel like the Giants land Correa with the money they would’ve given Judge and then Swanson is our consolation prize. There’s really nothing about Swanson to excite me about locking him up for 8+ years, but he’s a clear improvement.

 

If that’s how the SS situation plays out, are they going to try to sell Swanson/Bellinger/Taillon as fulfilling the supposed “do whatever it takes to turn the team around” mandate? Or, hopefully, are they still looking for impact elsewhere? I think (short of Correa), it’d take Senga+Murphy for this off-season to generate any sort of excitement for me.

[Brian707]

 

If that’s how the SS situation plays out, are they going to try to sell Swanson/Bellinger/Taillon as fulfilling the supposed “do whatever it takes to turn the team around” mandate?

 

 

It's probably enough to sell to enough dopes making a bus trip from Iowa every year to see a middling 78-82 win team this summer.

 

Sorry, it just reminds me of the 80's and 90s Cubs

[Sammy Sofa]

 

If that’s how the SS situation plays out, are they going to try to sell Swanson/Bellinger/Taillon as fulfilling the supposed “do whatever it takes to turn the team around” mandate?

 

 

It's probably enough to sell to enough dopes making a bus trip from Iowa every year to see a middling 78-82 win team this summer.

 

Sorry, it just reminds me of the 80's and 90s Cubs

 

Cubs fans from here on out: