Gauging Cubs' Backup Plans If Shota Imanaga Can't Reverse Home Run Trend Before Playoffs

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It is the first weekend of September, and the Chicago Cubs are sputtering. After splitting a home series that was a must-win affair against the Milwaukee Brewers, any hopes of regaining a division lead have vanished completely. They have also dropped behind the Phillies in the Wild Card standings, and while they still hold a four-and-a-half game lead over the Diamondbacks for the second spot, the margin for error is shrinking. Although it isn’t time to press the panic button, the Cubs are in danger of dropping their fourth consecutive series. The bats have done their job, but the pitching staff as a whole has a 4.44 xERA since since the start of August, which ranks 26th overall. The front office has built a pitching staff for 2026 that has contained more questions than answers, and while the trade deadline additions have added some clarity to the playoff starting rotation, there is still enough ambiguity to keep fans skeptical about how far this club can go.

The question we will be diving into here is one that was asked in the postseason last year, and again in the offseason: What is Craig Counsell supposed to do with Shota Imanaga? After Sunday’s home loss to the Reds, where Imanaga gave up three long balls for the second time in his last four starts, Counsell was quoted as saying, "If you look at the season he’s having, he’s having a pretty decent season," and when asked about if his role in the postseason was in jeopardy, he doubled down and added "I wouldn’t say that at all, no. We need Shota. We need Shota to be good for us. So we gotta work at helping him be better." It sounds like Counsell still has confidence, but it's not too early to think about other options.

The Shota Imanaga Problem

Imanaga’s third go-round with the Cubs has been healthier than last season’s effort, when he suffered a strained hamstring in May, costing him a month. He still made 25 starts, but he clearly was not the All-Star caliber pitcher who earned Rookie of the Year votes and down-ballot Cy Young love in 2024. He made two postseason starts, and while he pitched okay versus the Padres in the Wild Card Round, he infamously could not make it out of the third inning in his start against the Brewers in the NLDS, allowing four earned runs and a pair of homers.

As aforementioned, the home runs have been the glaring hole in his game for 2026. His 33 home runs allowed currently lead the major leagues (tied with Jeffrey Springs of the Athletics). He has allowed more than one homer in eight of his 27 starts, and 19 of those 33 allowed happened at Wrigley Field. Imanaga has a chase (35%) and whiff (29.2%) rate well above league average, and a walk percentage bordering on elite at 5.7%, which should normally inspire confidence. However, after looking at the potential playoff opponents he might face, he could be doomed in any scenario that involves him starting a game.

As it stands today, the Cubs would be in Philadelphia for the Wild Card Round. Forget about the lefty-on-lefty matchup; Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper would have no problem connecting on Shota’s low-90s fastball that tends to sit in the top of the strike zone. Should the Cubs’ slide continue to where they fall to the third Wild Card spot, they would likely match up with the Dodgers or Braves, which would be as bleak as it could get. The silver lining here is that, barring injury, he would not need to start a playoff game in the three-game wild card series with Clay Holmes, Matthew Boyd, and Jevin Gausman ahead of him, but should the Cubs advance, here are the potential pivots from an Imanaga start.

Plan A: Piggyback Game

The Mariners tinkered with this idea throughout the early parts of the season, using two different starters for about three innings a piece. Instead of starting Imanaga with a short leash, the plan from the beginning would be to let him work through the lineup once or twice before pulling him in the middle innings. In his first time through the batting order, opponents are hitting .211 with a .654 OPS, which is more than serviceable. The Cubs’ high-powered offense could jump out to an early lead in this timeframe before handing the ball to another starter.

Who that would be is a tough question, though. The healthy options on the roster are currently Colin Rea and Javier Assad. Rea has pitched well of late with a 3.06 ERA in his last seven games and switching the handedness of the pitcher would make the opposing manager have to make a few key decisions earlier than expected. Assad is once again putting together a solid, underrated season while bouncing between Chicago and Iowa. He has a 3.46 ERA in 22 games while starting ten of them. Before being optioned again, he threw three innings of two-hit, shutout ball versus the White Sox after entering in the fifth inning. Anything that Rea can do, Assad should be able to do a bit better. The most interesting option would be Edward Cabrera, who is currently rehabbing a blister. He is expected to land in the bullpen upon his return, but it is unclear whether he can be depended on for longer outings.

Plan B: David Peterson

Peterson has pitched well over the second half of the season, and his 0.6 fWAR is tied for the team lead among starters. In eight starts, which is tied with Imanaga for second on the team, he has a ho-hum 4.21 xERA but with an xFIP of 3.55. He has only one less strikeout than Imanaga since the All-Star break, and outside of Clay Holmes, he has been their best at keeping the ball in the yard. Opposing hitters have a .307 BABIP against Peterson, which is probably higher than it should be considering how good the Cubs' defense is. For what it's worth, didn’t allow a run over 5.1 innings of work against the Phillies in the 2024 NLDS.

It is clear that neither of these options would be better than Imanaga at the top of his game, and realistically, he will most likely be starting game four of a five-game playoff series. If any pitcher on this staff can string together a run of four straight quality starts, this is the guy. He started the year pitching like an All-Star, and could do that again as the weather starts to cool down and the hot summer air stops affecting fly balls as much. As long as he is healthy, he will have a shot at redemption in the postseason.