2022-23 Offseason Thread (Cubs)

[Tryptamine]

Just me talking out my ass, but with the Orioles desperately wanting pitching and top tier FAs likely reluctant to go, I wonder if we match up. They have a true CF in Mullins, we have Keegan Thompson to dangle. It would take another significant piece say Madrigal and maybe even a minor prospect. Baltimore had the worst production out of 2B in all of baseball last year so a healthy Madrigal is an pretty big upgrade and Keegan gives them a solid 4/5.

[CubinNY]

Just me talking out my ass, but with the Orioles desperately wanting pitching and top tier FAs likely reluctant to go, I wonder if we match up. They have a true CF in Mullins, we have Keegan Thompson to dangle. It would take another significant piece say Madrigal and maybe even a minor prospect. Baltimore had the worst production out of 2B in all of baseball last year so a healthy Madrigal is an pretty big upgrade and Keegan gives them a solid 4/5.

I'd be all for that, but I don't know how much value Madrigal has. He can't stay healthy, has no defensive value, and has no power. He's like a 1970s early 80s-era 2nd baseman.

[SeldomSeen]

I want Bogaerts, Swanson, AND Correa. I want the "too many shortstops" problem forever.

Hell, let's bring back Javy while we're at it for the fun factor.

[Tryptamine]

Just me talking out my ass, but with the Orioles desperately wanting pitching and top tier FAs likely reluctant to go, I wonder if we match up. They have a true CF in Mullins, we have Keegan Thompson to dangle. It would take another significant piece say Madrigal and maybe even a minor prospect. Baltimore had the worst production out of 2B in all of baseball last year so a healthy Madrigal is an pretty big upgrade and Keegan gives them a solid 4/5.

I'd be all for that, but I don't know how much value Madrigal has. He can't stay healthy, has no defensive value, and has no power. He's like a 1970s early 80s-era 2nd baseman.

 

He's a 2.5-3 fWAR guy, when healthy, still under control for 4 years. There's value there.

[David]

 

Translation -"The Cubs represent the primary threat to the Red Sox for Xander Bogaerts. They're looking for a poster (star) SS and have open wallets."

[Bertz]

 

If you want to believe the leaks from last night were not just PR cover from the team, Boras being nice to PTR is a pretty good sign

[Bertz]

[Bertz]

Given all the smoke around Bogaerts, I'm trying to talk myself into liking him as a potential $200M lineup anchor, because his top line Statcast numbers were tepid in 2022, which is a big red flag for a bat-first guy.

 

Up front, teams appear to not have one iota of worry, so presumably any issues I see on his Baseball Savant page have a rebuttal with more granular data. Also it's just one year out of a very consistent career, and a walk year to boot, so it might just be a weird one-off?

 

Digging in, there's not a smoking gun. The one thing that is clear is that he was not as productive against fastballs: whiffing a little more, hitting a lot more of them on the ground, and with a lower average exit velocity. I can't find the data on it, but I also infer that he hit more of them the other way as well. His hard hit rate against FBs was still in line with norms though. Ironically, he saw the lowest proportions of fastballs in his career, and that number generally went down as the season went along. If he'd suddenly developed an inability to hit a good fastball, that's the sort of thing teams jump on, and fast.

 

The only other thing I can find is that his hot streaks were significantly less hot in 2022 than normal. Which, I don't know if that's like a sign of age. I know with guys like Soriano, the hot streaks have gotten shorter, but I don't know if they ever got less hot. Again it's sort of an acknowledge it's not great but just shrug your shoulders sort of deal.

 

Overall I think he's still way behind Correa and a little behind Swanson for me, but I'm not as scared about giving him big money as I would have been a week ago. Especially if he's paired with another 9 figure deal.

[Bertz]

[17 Seconds]

horsefeathering do it then

 

[itisallpartoftheplan]

 

Wouldn’t say that unless you are pretty certain right?

[David]

Barstool sucks but this dude knows people

 

[mias_tisg]

A Dansby Swanson/Cody Bellinger/Random light-hitting defensive catcher offseason would be brutal on the offensive end. Now that they have Bellinger, they need to land one of Correa or Xander.

[mias_tisg]

A Dansby Swanson/Cody Bellinger/Random light-hitting defensive catcher offseason would be brutal on the offensive end. Now that they have Bellinger, they need to land one of Correa or Xander.

 

I'm fine letting him go for defense if they sign a big power bat.

[Bertz]

A Dansby Swanson/Cody Bellinger/Random light-hitting defensive catcher offseason would be brutal on the offensive end. Now that they have Bellinger, they need to land one of Correa or Xander.

 

This is what I'm nervous about. I like Swanson a lot, and I've been stumping for him. But he's not an impact bat, and so in my mind he was usually paired with a Bell or Abreu. Well those guys are obviously off the board now.

 

There's lots of smoke around the Swanson/Bogaerts double whammy, and that would clearly address the issue, but unless/until both are in the fold I'm gonna be nervous. The second tier 1B/DH options (e.g. Matt Carpenter) work if we're getting a Correa, not a Swanson.

[17 Seconds]

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Wonder what the Taillon contract will look like, seems like the rumors are trending towards something in the vicinity of 4/55-60?

[mias_tisg]

Wonder what the Taillon contract will look like, seems like the rumors are trending towards something in the vicinity of 4/55-60?

Ben Clemens had 3/42 on fangraphs

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Wonder what the Taillon contract will look like, seems like the rumors are trending towards something in the vicinity of 4/55-60?

Ben Clemens had 3/42 on fangraphs

 

I would've guessed a 3 year deal before the offseason too, but with the higher prices and the specific 'long term' language from the earlier tweet, makes me think 4 years with a similar or slightly higher AAV is where it lands.

[mias_tisg]

[Irrelevant Dude]

Do not like.

[17 Seconds]

Do not like.

 

why not?

[Tryptamine]

I don't dislike Taillon but he's a mid rotation guy and that's his upside. I would have liked them to grab someone with the possibility to take that next step. Still, the guy is a solid #3 on a good rotation.

[David]

 

https://www.yahoo.com/now/carlos-correa-still-focus-cubs-081012381.html

 

Carlos Correa anyone?

 

It’s no accident Boras was asked his impressions of the Cubs’ spending intentions as the agent for shortstops Correa and Xander Bogaerts, ace starter Carlos Rodón, All-Star outfielder Brandon Nimmo and, by the way, Bellinger.

 

Boras wouldn’t comment on specifics about any of his conversations with Cubs officials, or even their well documented and serious pursuit of Correa, arguably the top shortstop among this winter’s free agent class.

 

But sources say Boras has talked at least briefly with Ricketts since the season ended.

 

And his comment Tuesday aligns with what NBC Sports Chicago Dave Kaplan reported Monday: that Ricketts issued a mandate to Hoyer to add enough talent to pull the Cubs out of their two-year malaise and gave the “green light” to spend what it takes.

 

And manager David Ross on Tuesday acknowledged his and Hoyer’s sit-down with Correa, the free agent’s wife and Boras on Monday — just one of “a lot of players” Ross has met as part of the recruiting push the Cubs are making on myriad fronts to add middle-infield talent, pitching, bats and outfielders.

 

Tuesday’s two deals might even have offered hints into Hoyer’s overall plan for the winter, especially considering Taillon represents another contact pitcher in a Cubs rotation already brimming with them — underscoring the need for a Gold Glove shortstop such as Correa to help shore up a less-than-spectacular incumbent infield (especially with the extreme infield shifts banned starting next year).

 

Not to mention the Gold Glove outfielder Bellinger has been when at his All-Star best.

 

If the focus on the Cubs didn’t already center on Correa before Tuesday, it certainly does now.

 

And sources suggest they’re as deeply involved in trying to land him as anyone this side of the Twins — despite a price tag widely assumed to be bigger than Turner’s as the youngest (28) of the four big-name shortstops and the only one of the group not tied to a qualifying offer and the consequent draft-pick compensation.

 

“We have multiple teams and multiple offers that have come in, in the last few days,” Boras said of his two stars at the position.

 

The Cubs are well down the road with Correa, a player they’ve coveted since an eye-popping workout at Wrigley Field before he was drafted No. 1 overall by the Astros in 2012. And they’re talking seriously with Atlanta free agent Dansby Swanson as at least a possible Plan B (while the Ricketts mandate lends credence to reports suggesting they could be in play for both).

 

“Whether or not we’re going to get one of those shortstops, TBD,” Cubs general manager Carter Hawkins said of that position pool Tuesday night. “But we’re certainly actively involved and we’ll see where everything lands.”

 

Multiple sources said they expected that to get resolved in a matter of days, or faster, “because,” as one of the sources said, “the shortstop market is hot.”

 

As for Bogaerts, several other teams appear more serious than the Cubs, whose interest was characterized by a source with knowledge of their dialogue as “kicking the tires.”

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Did some poking around the free agent list for other bat-first options that can help with the DH need. There's not a perfect option out there but there's a few that interest me.

 

JD Martinez - has slipped from previous highs, statcast doesn't like his recent developments which is worrisome given his age, and he's DH only, but a 120 wRC+ guy from last year being available for a one year deal.

 

Michael Conforto - wildcard given his down 2021 and missing a whole year with a shoulder injury, but would be a good bet to be a similar caliber bat on a short term deal. If he's taking a get-right deal though I doubt he'd come here with the OF situation covered with better players/defenders.

 

Evan Longoria - Like all the old Giants didn't match his 2021, but a 115 wRC+ last year and the ability to play 3B(which could make Morel expendable in a trade for a C or SP) is pretty attractive for his likely contract(crowdsourcing says 1/8).

 

Luke Voit - had a down year with the bat and that might mean he's about done as a non-prospect pop up hitter over 30, but his struggles were being weirdly terrible against LHP which seems more random/fixable than decline. More swing and miss than you'd hope but for his likely price it could be a cheap way to get a 115 wRC+ bat and hedge Mervis.

 

Michael Brantley - injuries are always the concern here but he can still hit. If the Cubs snagged a SS would their competitive outlook be good enough to entice him? Do the Astros want him back badly?

 

Wil Myers - You'd probably only do this if there's some swing fixes you think you can unlock, but he adds a little defensive value at 1B and corner OF, and since the pandemic he's over a 120 wRC+ away from Petco.

 

Justin Turner - Basically the deluxe version of Longoria, but you probably have to wait out his preference for the Dodgers.