2022-23 Offseason Thread (Cubs)

[Derwood]

Let's get this a-rollin'

 

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[/tweet] Edited November 23, 2022 by Derwood

[Banedon]

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[CubinNY]

Mr. Christian, Mike Matheny was fired by the Royals. Another potential landing spot for the ex-Cubs named Joe.

[We Got The Whole 9]

horsefeathering Braves lock up yet another young phenom, this time Strider signs a 7 year deal worth up to $92M. At some point they'll lose a year or two of that to injury, but he's worth the risk. That bat-missing skill is obviously elite.

 

Big fan of the way they operate in that FO.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Since they did their end of season update, let's do a round of trades that pass the Baseball Trade Values simulator. This isn't a particular plan, and is meant to be taken more seriously than literally, but I think it's interesting nonetheless.

 

1. Velazquez for Marquez

2. Kilian + Sampson for Jansen

3. Assad for Kirilloff

4. Morel for Devers

5. Madrigal for Kaprielian

[Tim]

Since they did their end of season update, let's do a round of trades that pass the Baseball Trade Values simulator. This isn't a particular plan, and is meant to be taken more seriously than literally, but I think it's interesting nonetheless.

 

1. Velazquez for Marquez

2. Kilian + Sampson for Jansen

3. Assad for Kirilloff

4. Morel for Devers

5. Madrigal for Kaprielian

1. Yes, absolutely

2. Yes.

3. Nah, I don't have the interest in Kiriloff

4. Yes!

5. Nah, I'm not especially interested in Kaprielian

 

Crazy how much value prospects have relative to proven veterans.

[UMFan83]

Since they did their end of season update, let's do a round of trades that pass the Baseball Trade Values simulator. This isn't a particular plan, and is meant to be taken more seriously than literally, but I think it's interesting nonetheless.

 

1. Velazquez for Marquez

2. Kilian + Sampson for Jansen

3. Assad for Kirilloff

4. Morel for Devers

5. Madrigal for Kaprielian

1. Yes, absolutely

2. Yes.

3. Nah, I don't have the interest in Kiriloff

4. Yes!

5. Nah, I'm not especially interested in Kaprielian

 

Crazy how much value prospects have relative to proven veterans.

 

I was just about to say in what world is Morel an equivalent trade for Devers. I get that Devers only has 2 years of control left but he's been like a 4-5 win player and has been a fringe MVP candidate 2 of the last 3 seasons while Morel is a nice surprise and we're talking about him as a utility role player next year.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Since they did their end of season update, let's do a round of trades that pass the Baseball Trade Values simulator. This isn't a particular plan, and is meant to be taken more seriously than literally, but I think it's interesting nonetheless.

 

1. Velazquez for Marquez

2. Kilian + Sampson for Jansen

3. Assad for Kirilloff

4. Morel for Devers

5. Madrigal for Kaprielian

1. Yes, absolutely

2. Yes.

3. Nah, I don't have the interest in Kiriloff

4. Yes!

5. Nah, I'm not especially interested in Kaprielian

 

Crazy how much value prospects have relative to proven veterans.

 

I was just about to say in what world is Morel an equivalent trade for Devers. I get that Devers only has 2 years of control left but he's been like a 4-5 win player and has been a fringe MVP candidate 2 of the last 3 seasons while Morel is a nice surprise and we're talking about him as a utility role player next year.

 

1 year of control for Devers.

[Bertz]

A guy I've started eying is Seth Brown with the A's. He's a pure platoon bat, and despite some solid athleticism a bit of a clod everywhere he plays defensively. But there's some very real power there and the cost should be minimal, probably a few of the 40 man fringe types.

 

Also I was very anti-Jansen at the deadline but I'm coming around on him. Something like Correa, Jansen, Brown, and Kevin Kiermaier would lead to a pretty killer lineup, and leave $30Mish to throw at the pitching staff.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The other thing that crossed my mind in watching some of these playoff games is seeing former top prospects come good with a second organization and/or after waiting them out through their struggles. Crawford and Rosario were the two that came to mind today. Made me wonder if there's some former Top 50 prospects who have lost enough shine to be available or even buy low.

 

Mitch Keller - probably was a little too good this year, but he was still only average and is an arb eligible Pirate with an excellent foundation for pitch labbery, maybe among the closest analogs to pre-Cubs Arrieta

 

Michael Kopech - doubt the Cubs could take advantage here for multiple reasons, but in terms of performance, pedigree, and service time this is about the ideal

 

Victor Robles - would hopefully carry minimal cost given his extended struggles and arb eligibility, but he's toolsy enough to be a Top 5 prospect, mostly fits a current need to improve CF defense, and as a result doesn't have to be an offensive stud to be a solid contributor

 

Royce Lewis - I don't think the Twins are quite fed up with him and his fit on the current roster is not super snug, but the Twins have position player excess and maybe they're souring on his ability to stay healthy

 

Mickey Moniak - got dealt at the deadline which hurts the odds he might shake loose again, but then again he was bad in his new destination and its the Angels. Less optimism about the bat being at all playable though

 

Nate Pearson - the rotation ship has probably sailed here, but there's still closer upside if the Jays are done waiting for his health and results to reflect it

[Cubswin11]

Mitch Keller would be really interesting. There’s some things to be unlocked there potentially, I agree. And yeah Morel+ whatever not big prospects or even a Thompson type I’d be all in for Devers.

[Cubswin11]

Carlos Estevez as a FA would be a fun/interesting bullpen add, get him out of Coors and see if there’s some lab stuff.

[Bertz]

Thinking through a full offseason, trying to keep Jed's comments from earlier in the week in mind, maybe something like this?

 

- Do TT's deals for Marquez ($15M) and Jansen ($3.7M)

- Trade with the A's for Seth Brown

- Sign Correa to something a bit higher AAV to avoid going 10 years ( 8/$280)

- Sign Brett Phillips (1/$2M)

- Re-sign Drew Smyly (2/14M)

- Sign Taylor Rogers (1/$10M)

- Sign Carlos Estevez (1/$5M)

 

Payroll is in the $215M-$220M range, so there should be room to extend Hoerner and leave room for deadline moves.

 

Lineup

 

RF - Suzuki

LF - Happ

DH - Brown

SS - Correa

3B - Wisdom

SS - Hoerner

1B - Mervis

C - Jansen

CF - Phillips

 

BN - Morel, Gomes, Madrigal, Mckinstry

 

This team is good defensively everywhere except maybe 3B and good offensively everywhere except definitely CF. People are going to hate Phillips, but he is a monster defender and actually a decent hitter against righties, so platoon him very strictly until Davis/Canario are up and push him to his rightful bench spot.

 

Pitching Staff

 

SP - Stro, Marquez, Steele, Smyly, Hendricks

CL - Rogers

SU - Estevez, Hughes

MR - Heuer, Wick, Leiter, Estrada (or other Iowa reliever du jour)

LR - Thompson, Alzolay

 

It lacks the true Ace or monster closer you like to have anchoring your staff, but this group of pitchers has a chance to be pretty sick. Hottovy needs to work his magic with the new guys, but Estevez was the 15th hardest throwing reliever in baseball this year (min 50 IP) and Marquez the 21st SP (min 100 IP), so it's no longer like we're asking him to spin straw into gold. Taylor Rogers had an ugly ERA but everything under the hood looks fine, to the point that I'm not sure even this fairly hefty 1 year salary will get him in the door. There's also quite a few quality arms at Iowa, so when some of these guys wash out we can "next man up" pretty well.

 

It wouldn't make the Dodgers nervous, but I think this squad compares favorably with any that played on Wildcard weekend. It does so without skimming too much talent out of the farm, and only adding one long term deal. So Jed's still in prime position to add more talent at the deadline and next winter.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I dig it, I agree that fits pretty cleanly payroll wise, I've been thinking 15 million below the tax line after all the extras is a reasonable target, give or take a couple million. This is about 21 under by my count. Gives you room to do something mid-year or extend someone, and with Hendricks and Heyward falling off after 2023(plus any 1 year deals signed this offseason), you aren't painting yourself into a corner.

 

Main weakness I see is that the bullpen probably needs another external arm, you can consider Wesneski part of that group which helps, but with Wick's crap 2022, Heuer's post-surgery unknown, Rodriguez's velocity loss, etc, I'd feel better with another Givens/Martin. Thankfully those are cheap enough that you don't have to change anything else. Otherwise, trading for all of Marquez, Jansen, and Brown is probably a little on the high side for my tastes in terms of total talent outgoings, and while I like Phillips' profile he's riskier than others who you could technically afford(Kiermaier, maybe even Bellinger) without shaking up the rest of the moves.

[Tim]

Mervis and Brown would hit 55 HR between them.

[Tim]

That's assuming Brown is injured most of the year, of course.

[Tim]

Thinking through a full offseason, trying to keep Jed's comments from earlier in the week in mind, maybe something like this?

 

- Do TT's deals for Marquez ($15M) and Jansen ($3.7M)

- Trade with the A's for Seth Brown

- Sign Correa to something a bit higher AAV to avoid going 10 years ( 8/$280)

- Sign Brett Phillips (1/$2M)

- Re-sign Drew Smyly (2/14M)

- Sign Taylor Rogers (1/$10M)

- Sign Carlos Estevez (1/$5M)

 

Payroll is in the $215M-$220M range, so there should be room to extend Hoerner and leave room for deadline moves.

If my #1 SP acquisition is Marquez, then I want someone better than Smyly as the #2. I'd love to find a way to afford Senga as another add in that situation.

 

I'm not wild about Seth Brown, but he's a guy that might be helped by the lack of shifting next year. I'd like to find a comparable FA option that I can get on a short-term contract.

 

For some reason, going big on Correa makes me nervous. I'm not sure why, though. I guess I feel like he's more a very good player than a real star. I think I might prefer to spread that money around a bit more rather than going long on any of the SS, but I waffle on that stance pretty much every day. Like the Correa + Smyly money could be Nimmo + Senga, but without the long-term commitment.

 

I'm not a fan of Phillips, but this is essentially a throw away move until a rookie can displace him. If Bellinger becomes available, he's he guy I want out there.

 

Reliever choices are fine, but could be others and I wouldn't mind. I trust the team here to make good choices.

 

So, maybe something like this:

 

- Do TT's deals for Marquez ($15M) and Jansen ($3.7M)

- Sign Jose Abreu to short term deal (2/$36M)

- Sign Nimmo (4/$100M)

- Sign Kodai Senga (4/$85M)

- Sign Carlos Estevez (1/$5M)

- Sign budget reliever (1/$2M)

 

That puts me about $10M over your salary, so I may be overshooting here. If there's an option in FA cheaper than Abreu, that would probably work. But I really like the lineup depth with those guys.

 

CF - Nimmo

RF - Suzuki

LF - Happ

DH - Abreu

1B - Mervis

3B - Wisdom

SS - Hoerner

C - Jansen

2B - Madrigal/Morel

 

There would be great depth in the SP, too:

 

SP - Stroman, Marquez, Steele, Kodai, Hendricks (Wesneski, Thompson, Sampson, Assad, etc.)

[Bertz]

For some reason, going big on Correa makes me nervous. I'm not sure why, though. I guess I feel like he's more a very good player than a real star. I think I might prefer to spread that money around a bit more rather than going long on any of the SS, but I waffle on that stance pretty much every day. Like the Correa + Smyly money could be Nimmo + Senga, but without the long-term commitment.

 

I think this is the big inflection point on gaming out potential offseasons. We're assuming there's 80-something million to spend and the team doesn't want to go hog wild on dumping prospects. So there's enough resources to do anything you want, but not everything you want.

 

Correa or one of the other shortstops use up enough resources right off the bat that you are essentially forced to skimp elsewhere. I chose to skimp in CF and SP. CF is an easy choice IMO, as the over/under on Davis or Canario being ready is something like May 15th. SP was a bit tougher, my preferred "other" SP is actually Andrew Heaney, but I wasn't able to fit him into this scenario.

 

If you pass on the shortstops though, as you showed you can go pretty much hog wild filling the rest of the holes on the roster. I still think grabbing a star SS to anchor the lineup is the right call, but it's easy to see the benefits of skipping there. It kind of sucks Dansby Swanson had such an amazing year. He'd probably be looking at 5/$90 or something coming off a normal year, but now the SS market is Jose Iglesias and four guys who will each get at least $150M. No mid range options at all.

[Tim]

For some reason, going big on Correa makes me nervous. I'm not sure why, though. I guess I feel like he's more a very good player than a real star. I think I might prefer to spread that money around a bit more rather than going long on any of the SS, but I waffle on that stance pretty much every day. Like the Correa + Smyly money could be Nimmo + Senga, but without the long-term commitment.

 

I think this is the big inflection point on gaming out potential offseasons. We're assuming there's 80-something million to spend and the team doesn't want to go hog wild on dumping prospects. So there's enough resources to do anything you want, but not everything you want.

 

Correa or one of the other shortstops use up enough resources right off the bat that you are essentially forced to skimp elsewhere. I chose to skimp in CF and SP. CF is an easy choice IMO, as the over/under on Davis or Canario being ready is something like May 15th. SP was a bit tougher, my preferred "other" SP is actually Andrew Heaney, but I wasn't able to fit him into this scenario.

 

If you pass on the shortstops though, as you showed you can go pretty much hog wild filling the rest of the holes on the roster. I still think grabbing a star SS to anchor the lineup is the right call, but it's easy to see the benefits of skipping there. It kind of sucks Dansby Swanson had such an amazing year. He'd probably be looking at 5/$90 or something coming off a normal year, but now the SS market is Jose Iglesias and four guys who will each get at least $150M. No mid range options at all.

On the OF, I've decided that I'm not too worried about prospect readiness. There will be injuries. Happ's only here for one more year. We can rotate guys to keep them fresh. There's the DH spot that can be used with off days for Abreu or Mervis. We can trade guys, too, if the backlog becomes too severe.

 

I'd love it if one of those guys developed a sudden ability to play 2B or 3B, though.

[UMFan83]

This is almost certainly a whole bunch of nothing but

 

 

The Dodgers and Cubs both prefer shorter term high AAV contacts and I have a feeling that's not what Judge wants.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Brett has some discussion of a Hoerner extension after Wittenmyer referenced it as something "expected": https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2022/10/14/nico-hoerner-is-expected-to-be-extended-by-the-cubs-this-offseason/

 

He goes on to highlight how JP Crawford's extension(5/51) is a pretty good starting point, since there's reasons that might nudge in either duration in Hoerner's case. That's useful to think about, particularly for payroll planning purposes since Hoerner's LT number going from 2 million to 10 million is non-trivial. But the inclusion of Happ in Wittenmyer's quote strikes me as interesting too:

 

Hoyer believes in Hoerner enough that the 2018 first-round pick — along with 2015 first-rounder and 2022 All-Star Ian Happ — is expected to get a long-term extension during this first winter of arbitration eligibility.

 

Brett seems to think this is in reference to Happ also being a player Hoyer believes in, rather than a player "expected" to get an extension. I find that a strange interpretation for grammar/sentence structure alone, but doubly so since this offseason is a pretty crucial period for Happ to get an extension if one is coming. Extending Happ also carries some implications for what the offseason brings, since having both Happ and Suzuki locked up long term is meaningful for what opportunity might exist for Velazquez, Davis, or Canario. Yes, they presumably can at least fake it in CF and there's no DH stalwart locking down those PAs, but as Bertz mentioned above, if you get your SS target and are left with some tighter remaining financial resources(maybe moreso after extending Hoerner and Happ), it could nudge further into trading at least one if not more than one of those players to keep building the roster you want to build.

[Cubswin11]

Give him whatever he wants

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Levine was on the radio this morning saying that the Cubs were going to have more interest than the Sox in signing Abreu. Not without some risk, and he'll make enough that it would force some tradeoffs elsewhere(particularly in CF or maybe C), but it'd be an excellent bat to add on a short term deal.

[muntjack]

I'd prefer to rotate guys into the DH role for rest rather than have a big, old dude sitting in that spot. Forced to, I'd (probably?) feel better with Abreu as that guy over Franmil, but not so much that I'd want to pay $15mil per for him.

 

His power is waning, his excellent OBP this season was more BABIP than BB%, and he'll be 36 so there is a non-trivial chance he's approaching a cliff.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'd prefer to rotate guys into the DH role for rest rather than have a big, old dude sitting in that spot. Forced to, I'd (probably?) feel better with Abreu as that guy over Franmil, but not so much that I'd want to pay $15mil per for him.

 

His power is waning, his excellent OBP this season was more BABIP than BB%, and he'll be 36 so there is a non-trivial chance he's approaching a cliff.

 

I think the cost is the main thing for me. I think he's a pretty strong bet with the bat(his power dip is likely ball/environment and he's run high BABIPs before and cut his K rate while maintaining near peak BB%), but going to 15 million+ for him forces some hard decisions elsewhere on the roster and I don't love forcing that for a good not great 1B/DH.