Hello Cubs World,

In my last blogpost, I gave predictions for the division. Immediately afterwards, the Reds collapsed, but the Cubs, Brewers, and Cardinals kept on trucking. Some might over-react and claim my projections were immediately obsolete, but I don't think so. There's quite a bit of short-term streakiness and luck in baseball. Projections are made for macro-patterns and tehy also include a team's willingness to make midseason move. . 

I had suggested that the Cardinals were heading for 70 wins, not even the 74 suggested by PECOTA. 

Here's why i still think that's reasonable to assume. 
 

Their starting rotation simply isn't good. 

These stats are well below average and don't indicate a winning record for the Cardinals in a tough division,

Their Team ERA is 20th in baseball, at 4.28, and their rotation is sitting right around there with signs of further regression. They basically have a #2 (McGreevy), a #3 (Liberatore), and three #5 quality pitchers. 

1: Matthew Liberatore the "Ace" has a 4.07 ERA currently. He's too inconsistent to give you streaks of dominance. He may have some stuff, but that is ERA close to his season expectations.  His 1.43 WHIP would make him the worst in the Cubs rotation....  

2:  Michael McGreevy, their one bright spot, won't be able to sustain his 2.18 ERA. He's talented but not THAT good. His game is actually quite similar to Colin Rea - its built on complexity rather than elite stuff - McGreevy's fastball is sub 92 mph. Most of his success has come from a perfectly tunneled, and therefore hard to distinguish, sinker/changeup combo. Even still, a 3.5 ERA seems to be his trajectory, based on his fundamentals.  

3: Dustin May, their third starter is sitting at a 4.85 ERA and despite decent stuff, he isn't showing any signs of brilliance. Again, he's a hot/cold pitcher that should be a #5 not a #3.  

4:  Kyle Leahy's 4.31 ERA and 1.59 WHIP are barely passable for a back rotation player. 

5:  Andrew Pallante brings up the rear with a pedestrian 4.34 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. 

Their pitching depth is lacking. 

My projection is they finish around 23rd-24th in pitching this year, for various reasons, but most importantly because they are paper thin in the bullpen. It would be one thing if they had some nasty talent coming up, but frankly, they don't. If they lose rotation guys, or their top relievers, they're sunk. And given the injury rate in this sport, the low budget rebuilding mindset of the organization, and the difficulty of this division, they aren't likely to spend real funds to replace anyone. They would be more likely to be sellers of short-term vet arms at the trade deadline. 

Their hitting is also sub-par. 

The Cardinals are sitting at 20th in team batting average, and 15th in OPS, and that is by overperforming their player projections on a hot streak. Their strengths are base stealing (13th) and home runs (10th); however, both of those numbers are a bit elevated due to said hot streak, which is already fading. I have them projected as about 18th-20th at the plate. 

Their defense is also pedestrian. 

This is the real killer: guys like Wynn (SS) cannot make up for so much mediocrity because there's simply not enough top gloves to support him. Although they are a top 10 team in avoiding errors so far, Baseball Prospectus has them as a negative defensive win team. While the Cubs have produced 5.3 defensive wins already, the Cardinals are at -.2. 

They WILL Become demoralized when they cool off, and that triggers a downwards spiral. 

Whenever a team loses steam, and hope for making the playoffs, they tart playing badly. Look at the San Francisco Giants: a much better team than the Cardinals on paper, and yet still playing at the very bottom of the league. The explanation is simple: they have no MOJO. They aren't confident in their coaching. They don't particularly like each other that much (Mets suffer from this same problem). And, with a team attitude that the ownership hasn't done enough to put them into contention, the Cardinals will soon look more like the Giants once the injuries hit and the stats regress. 

Conclusion

Is it possible they Make it to .500 this year? Yes, but very unlikely. PECOTA has them as the worst team in the division, and so do I. If they have miraculous luck with injuries, and if their front office tries to spend and fight for a wildcard spot, then sure it could happen. Its just highly unlikely. SO, many of the losses are predicted to come after the All-Star break, when the Brewers and Cubs are perennially battling for the big show.  But with a very good Pirates team and a rather impressive Reds pitching staff, there's simply no room for the Cardinals to Shine. 

So, yeah, 70 wins is still my intuition.