Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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I think that is likely an expectations vs reality thing where the money runs out quicker than you think. Ideally they need to bring in 2-3 SP, 2-3 position player starters, a leverage bullpen arm, and maybe fill a bench spot or two depending on how you go about doing those. The ~80ish million they likely have to spend goes pretty quick, even if you lean on Shaw/Pedro to be a full-time option, or trade from the farm to fill in a spot with an arb eligible option. More to the point is that from a resources standpoint, more should go into pitching than the offense, so by bringing back Happ on the QO you're not only making the whole plan harder, but you're cutting off other options for filling in the other lineup slots because you need to preserve the resources for pitching. I don't think the upshot of a 2-3 win LF is worth locking that in at the outset of the offseason. -
Cubs Pre-Offseason Mega Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Brandon Glick's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Well we're talking about a month where had 46 PA total, it's gonna be noisy. Despite that RHP struggle he still had a 131 wRC+ against LHP, which speaks to the point I was getting at that you can count on Shaw to mash LHP at a starting OF level, and with the appropriate hedge you can let him earn more time against RHP as his performance dictates. -
Cubs Pre-Offseason Mega Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Brandon Glick's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I think this is mostly a function of getting more PA against RHP when Dansby went down(and having a slump against them simultaneously). You pair him with next year's Conforto or a similar bet that can fake it defensively in the OF, and I think you can be confident he'll rake against LHP and you can further test him against RHP as his progress allows. -
I think there's a tension where if Happ is so likely to take the qualifying offer, then his likely FA deal (especially coming off his worst season with the bat in a half decade) should not be so intimidating in AAV or years that you can still sign him without the QO. Using 25-30% of your money to spend on a 1 year deal for Happ strikes me as a disastrous way to use those resources, so I would only offer a QO if I was absolutely certain a decline was coming. For similar reasons, giving Boyd 23 million is a non-starter for me. You can't continue to evolve the pitching staff to be less dependent on defense and guile, and at the same time give a 36 year old who sits 92(and missed 10 starts to boot) a huge chunk of cash that could go to a better profile with a similar AAV.
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This has been a whole lot of trade capital used on 2026/rentals. Hope they make it worth it.
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Cubs get RP Ryan Zeferjahn from Angels
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Andy's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Yes, this is not saying that Ballesteros and McGwire are prospects without flaws, but that they were used to get a reliever with a 2 month track record and a walk rate that is disqualifying to be a late inning stalwart. The team control does not matter because reliever performance is wildly unpredictable year to year. -
Cubs get RP Ryan Zeferjahn from Angels
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Andy's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
If that's the deal(and I've seen Angels-side reporting of it) I'm struggling to think of a worse deal Jed has made, or really anything that's come close from a value perspective. -
they don't draw well regardless, but there was a sizable rain delay tonight
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Last year 42% of his PA were with runners on base, this year so far it's 68%, RISP is 27% last year and 40% this year. Might just be seeing less aggressive approaches because the consequences of him running into one are greater on average so far this year.
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Yes, stabilization gets abused so much because that connection gets missed so often. Even when you finally get to 'this is meaningful' (stabilization), the gap between 'this is meaningful' and 'this is predictive' is often still really big!
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Think about the motion you're making on that play, you're concentrating on catching the ball first and foremost. That throw, unlike say, the return bounce when you're dribbling a basketball, can get to you in a wide variety of locations and the runner could be sliding multiple ways which changes your tag target. That means there isn't a muscle memory that when you catch the ball you make this specific movement and that's a clean tag every time. You're taught(at least I was) to bring the ball to the base, the runner has to get there. At the MLB level it's not exactly that simple, but that's the general mechanic. You can see Swanson doing a version of this, but he came in a little low and the ground slowed the sweeping motion just enough for the runner to be safe. The other end of the spectrum is if you come in too high, a hand can sneak in under you.
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Maybe ESPN lost/gave up radio for Sunday night baseball since they lost the TV rights
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 4-3-26
Transmogrified Tiger replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Feel like we collectively should be making a bigger deal that our new large adult son hit a ball about 715 feet last night -
You'd think after the Cam Smith experience last year we'd learn our lesson about this particular brand of overreaction
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Full No trade. In the practical sense it's for the first 3 years of the extension because he'd have 10/5 rights for the back half of the deal.
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Next season per Rosenthal
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Nico was 4th among qualified 2B in offensive value last year
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General Baseball Chit-Chat Thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to David's topic in General Baseball Talk
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Yes if you assume the Brewers will be better at filling 90% of the roster indefinitely then it will be difficult to overcome that. Also the Pirates seem fearsome if you focus on the best case scenario for their handful of pitchers and ignore that their offense looks extremely dire for the foreseeable future.
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Bregman's bat is likely to age better into his mid-30s than Nico's speed/defense, and he didn't have the QO penalty that Nico would. Also, if you're paying for 5 years at FA rates why would Jed be in a hurry to make that deal a year early
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I love Nico but if he's getting 30M AAV I'm gonna go from lukewarm on this extension to harshly negative.
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This Texas/Purdue game has become such a ref-baiting slog that Texas is able to play a guy who can't walk and get away with it
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Nick Madrigal is a Top 5 FA hitter for next offseason*, Happ is gonna get paid *Only a slight exaggeration
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The Cubs were 1st in the NL and 3rd in MLB in position player value last year. Their bench is weak partially by design, their lineup is too good to provide the opportunity for lower quality players to succeed in sheltered roles.
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