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Transmogrified Tiger

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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger

  1. Transmogrified Tiger
    Last offseason's "horse who should go deep into October" lasted 11 starts on his 6/210 deal before his elbow exploded. Last offseason's "upside McGee held together with duct tape" also missed time to injury but was healthy in October and gave the team 34 innings of 3.11 ERA en route to a title. The Cubs need the chance at a guy who can provide 2 strong starts in a postseason series a whole lot more than the fake certainty of banking 180 innings.
  2. Transmogrified Tiger
    As pre-eminent Owen Caissie hater this is a glorious day, phenomenal stuff
  3. Transmogrified Tiger
    Yeah 3 years of Cabrera with what the return seems to be circling on means you've priced in a fair amount of medical risk. And its risk this roster can afford to take, because even if one of Brown/Assad/Wicks goes to Miami there's still no shortage of guys to soak up starts at a cromulent level, but open questions about how many are good enough to start twice in a playoff series.
  4. Transmogrified Tiger
    Wonder what Harbaugh's exit interview was like. "John, you came a whisper away from the playoffs despite Lamar missing 4+ games with multiple injuries. So I guess our first question is, how dare you?"
  5. Transmogrified Tiger
    I mean we're talking about Boras's most famous mouthpiece proclaiming the most mild possible interest, I would not use that to make any inferences about how Jed is operating relative to plan.
  6. Transmogrified Tiger
    Harvey is getting the 15th highest AAV of FA RP, and all the names below him on the list are some combination of lefty specialists that aren’t leverage options, guys who throw substantially less hard, or pitchers that simply aren’t nearly as good. The degree of any potential overpay is a rounding error as it relates to impacting other signings unless you think he was destined to be closer to the league minimum, in which case it’s you and not the Cubs that need to recalibrate on his value.
  7. Transmogrified Tiger
    The Cubs have won 9 more games than the Rangers over the last 3 years, including the highest single season between them while the Rangers have the two lowest win totals in that span.
  8. Transmogrified Tiger
    Also paying the QO price for King to potentially lose him after a year dulls the benefit further.
  9. Transmogrified Tiger
    I might be missing a team, but it seems like the primary competition for him may be the Giants and the Mets* *As long as they offer him on one of the days the Mets think money is fake, and not one of the days when Pete Alonso asked for money.
  10. Transmogrified Tiger
    There's a train station about 100 yards from the northern edge of Lumen. The closest train station to Soldier Field I believe is the Roosevelt Red line, which is a mile walk from the stadium.
  11. Transmogrified Tiger
    The Arlington Heights location is further from soldier field/downtown Chicago than Gary is. I don’t think it’ll happen, but Gary being just across the state line wouldn’t be the reason since everyone will still consider it Chicago
  12. Transmogrified Tiger
    Whole lot of 'woah look out for the mystery team on Bregman' all of a sudden, feel like it's either getting close to closing time for his decision or Boras is extremely underwhelmed by the interest so far.
  13. Transmogrified Tiger
    Said a different way, especially since several of the roster spots we're talking about are likely to go to league minimum or near-minimum players, that money can go further than you think. In fact I think there's probably only 3-4 additions that will be materially above the league minimum, barring trades. Add in the possibility that following a playoff season and resetting LT penalties they'll be even the slightest bit more aggressive with payroll, and it's not hard to imagine there being 45-50 million for those 3-4 spots. Which could be something like King + Okamoto + Keller, or Imai + Polanco + Fairbanks, or Bregman + Sandy Alcantara + Luke Weaver, etc.
  14. Transmogrified Tiger
    It's not an enormous difference but the roster resource payroll number assumes a full roster, filling in league minimum spots where necessary. So for the purposes of thinking about salary room available for additions, that 44.5 million number shy of the tax line is actually easier to think of as 50 million(7 * 780k = 5.5 million), otherwise you'd double count the league minimum values for those 7 roster spots.
  15. Transmogrified Tiger
    I like this idea of putting a converted middle infielder at 3B who adds a bit of pop(.170ish IsoP) and can play solid defensively by maximizing their middle infield quickness in lieu of having a cannon for an arm. But enough about Matt Shaw already.
  16. Transmogrified Tiger
    I think it could also mean a little bit of a payroll boost, and them being comfortable with the position player group after signing a bat, and being okay with Zombro specials for most(all?) of the relievers they still want to add.
  17. Transmogrified Tiger
    I think the reasonable best case scenario for me at this point is if they have the headroom to sign King, Okamoto, and Finnegan(or your similarly priced RP of choice) while still having enough room for the ends of the roster and mid year. I’d rather trade for an SP than compromise on the bat addition, and I don’t love the idea of trading Shaw this offseason.
  18. Transmogrified Tiger
    I would be pretty surprised if a bunch of guys held out til January just because of Imai, this isn't a Sasaki or a Yamamoto situation.
  19. Transmogrified Tiger
    https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6870545/2025/12/07/cubs-winter-meetings-tatsuya-imai-michael-king/
  20. Transmogrified Tiger
    Gallen has 5 career starts at Wrigley
  21. Transmogrified Tiger
    All the protagonists are always normal at the *beginning* of a cult movie
  22. Transmogrified Tiger
    I think the idea of Hernandez outstrips his reality. He’s been a slightly above average hitter with little platoon split 2 of the last 3 years, and he’s a DH defensively while entering his mid 30s. I could see him working out but there are many more options with more upside, lower cost, and/or simply less complexity
  23. Transmogrified Tiger
    Bregman feels like a contingency since Boras is gonna Boras and drag his FA as long as possible. So if they strike out on a FA target they had higher hopes for(King?) and trade prices are uncomfortably high, the option to use Shaw or Nico to get a SP and put the money towards Bregman will still be there. I don’t love this if it means trading Shaw and I’m skeptical that Nico can help you get a playoff SP, but it’s early in the offseason so we’ll have to see if that could play out
  24. Transmogrified Tiger
    Thank you for asking, no he is not
  25. Transmogrified Tiger
    The Colts started 7-1 and there's a non-trivial chance they end up 8-9. They just lost to the Texans at home and have to go to Houston, have both games against the Jags, plus @ Seattle and home for SF. None of those teams are world-beaters but there isn't an easy out in that group for a team on a slide.
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