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Transmogrified Tiger

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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger

  1. Transmogrified Tiger
    Every team in playoff contention spends prospect capital at the deadline to acquire pen arms.
  2. Transmogrified Tiger
    Relievers aren't random number generators, but they're close to being random number generators. 10 relievers got 10 million+ AAV last year, only half of them had ERA's under 4. Free Agents are less certain in their productivity than people think in general, but they are especially not as certain as people think when it comes to relievers.
  3. Transmogrified Tiger
    IMO it's less about the shape and more that he has very inconsistently put it where he wants to. In his 2024 cameo he had some fastball command, in 2025 he had very little.
  4. Transmogrified Tiger
    In practice unless we're fortunate enough to draw UEFA teams in Pot 2 and 3, it's worse than that. Because if we draw a CAF team(2 in Pot 2, 5 in Pot 3) then Cape Verde and Ghana go off the table(67% chance of UEFA playoff), and same with AFC(Jordan, 57%). So basically the best case, if narrow, scenario is to get Austria/Scotland so we can lock in a true minnow in Pot 4. On the other end of the spectrum you could end up with a nightmare like Morocco/Norway/Italy
  5. Transmogrified Tiger
    Maton was 10th in whiff rate last year, min 200 PA faced
  6. Transmogrified Tiger
    144 relievers had 50 IP last year, Maton was tied for 19th in K-BB%(23.4%). Not sure how optimistic I am that will continue when he'd sat just under 20 for several years, but hopefully they think the recipe is there.
  7. Transmogrified Tiger
    With the offseason getting underway I'm going to lock this thread. We can have new threads that are more generic than specific rumors/signings, but it will be easier to navigate and interact with if we avoid a single thousand page thread.
  8. Transmogrified Tiger
    Just to play Devil's Avocado, Alcantara may be more of a corner OF than MLB-viable in CF, and was the 6th best hitter on his team at Iowa. Kepley looks like a clearly more valuable baserunner, possibly a more viable CF, and has yet to be slowed down offensively(low bar considering the level). I don't think it's unfair to have them on the same tier, though I'm admittedly a long-time Alcantara skeptic.
  9. Transmogrified Tiger
  10. Transmogrified Tiger
    I’m sure the lat injury he had a couple months after returning from shoulder surgery is probably nothing
  11. Transmogrified Tiger
    Trading Peralta because you forced yourself into paying Woodruff 32 million would be an own goal of a magnitude rarely seen in MLB. Doubly so because I’m reasonably sure Woodruff is toast.
  12. Transmogrified Tiger
    Burger is not a third baseman, he'd be a worse option there than Turner
  13. Transmogrified Tiger
    It isn’t exactly this simple because Shota was very effective for ~1.8 years, but the FA market for pitchers who sit 90 is…not robust. Maybe his IVB makes up for a couple ticks of velo in some teams models, but with a QO attached I would not be surprised if his market craters. If his team anticipated that maybe he’ll accept a QO, though it would be a risk to turn down the player option in that case.
  14. Transmogrified Tiger
    The protagonist's group of travelers that stumble upon a cult are always normal at the *beginning* of the movie
  15. Transmogrified Tiger
    There seems to be some odd disagreement about something that should be pretty factual re: Okamoto handling velocity: Also worth noting Longenhagen's report appears to be pre-2025.
  16. Transmogrified Tiger
    Fun! My .02 is that less is more when it comes to the columns, there's no need to include how many triples or GIDP all these hitters had. PA, a couple more holistic offensive measures, the positional stuff, and maybe add their 2025 salary would make that a much more focused and imo useful resource.
  17. Transmogrified Tiger
    You don't make offseason decisions only with one year in mind(otherwise you'd trade all the prospects all the time), but you also can't solve next year's problems before they get here. Maybe Matt Shaw is the 130 wRC+/30 HR pace he was after the all star break, maybe they sign Alonso, maybe Amaya is healthy and goes nuts, maybe there isn't a season at all with the CBA expiring.
  18. Transmogrified Tiger
    I actually think the more I look into it, the less likely it is that Shota gets offered the QO if it comes down to it. It wouldn’t shock me for multiple reasons, and I’d expect the Cubs to try to retain him either way, but the takeaway is that players like Shota do not get paid well in FA and the slope to them being paid like long relievers is very steep.
  19. Transmogrified Tiger
    I'll preface this by saying I like Shota, especially relative to the current sentiment that probably overweights how his 2024 ended(he had a 3.08 ERA into the 2nd week of September!). That said, the FA market is not particularly kind to 30-something pitchers who sit 90, and they especially won't be kind if they have a QO attached. The only pitcher with an average fastball under 92 who was guaranteed more than 10 million total last year was Trevor Williams, who got 2/14 after putting up a 2.03 ERA/2.79 WHIP/2.0 fWAR in 13 starts. So from Shota's perspective you have to think of it this way: * I can guarantee myself 30 million, with an opt out after next year if I end up pitching phenomenally. The Cubs can void that opt out and bring things full circle to getting roughly 3/55 as if this decision was never his. * If I turn that down, the odds are pretty decent I'm going to get a qualifying offer, at which point I have to choose between less guaranteed money than the option or whatever deal I get with a QO attached, which is very possibly a lower guarantee than my option. It's not a slam dunk, and athletes like to bet on themselves, but the rational decision is probably to pick up his option.
  20. Transmogrified Tiger
    I've seen this shared a bunch of times and the Cubs revenue number has never passed the sniff test for me. As one point of comparison, the Phillies have a TV deal that pays them 25 million more per year, they outdrew the Cubs that year by 350k, had playoff revenue, and are a consistently successful team with stars in a similar market(assuming a lopsided 2:1 Cubs:Sox split of Chicago). For these to be true there's a gap of ~100 million the Cubs are making that the Phillies are not and I have no idea what something of that magnitude can be when the biggest blocks(TV + attendance) are already considered
  21. Transmogrified Tiger
    Webb has a very good reputation so I wouldn't be surprised to see him take that one over Boyd. I figured there would be a similar situation for Happ in LF, but Kyle Stowers got nominated and that man is a danger to himself in the outfield so I guess it's a really weak position.
  22. Transmogrified Tiger
    I don't mind Kittredge at his option(which is technically an 8m decision since he has a 1m buyout if declined) in the abstract, but it comes down to total money to spend. How many Kittredge+ salaries can the 2026 Cubs reasonably carry in the pen? If the answer is 1, I would rather it not be Kittredge. If the answer is 2, I think it's still an open question. If it's 3, then it's an easy decision, but I'm not very confident the answer is 3.
  23. Transmogrified Tiger
    Shaw had a 130 wRC+ after the all-star break. He ended the year in a funk but I wouldn't put a low offensive ceiling on him just yet. We should learn from the adjustments PCA made from his first taste of MLB pitching to his first full season. But even beyond that, the team needs to have the possibility for positive variance, it got that from PCA, Busch, and to a lesser extent Shaw this year. Trading Shaw in service of what's likely a market rate solution further cuts down on those opportunities since you have so many lineup spots spoken for.
  24. Transmogrified Tiger
    FWIW, Uribe has a 4.50 ERA in outings of 4+ outs this year(plus another unearned run). If 2 innings of him is plan A that's not really a bad thing.
  25. Transmogrified Tiger
    Joey Ortiz is going in the book, that was a dirty slide
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