Transmogrified Tiger
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Everything posted by Transmogrified Tiger
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Guide to the World Baseball Classic
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
think these gentlemen might disagree -
Spring Training games thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
He got the highest bonus in that draft, and that draft's number 1 was Harper. -
Spring Training games thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Too lazy to do the legwork for more but it looks like the *median* bWAR for pick number 2 is about 7 WAR, and Taillon is 21st of 61 #2 picks. He's likely to jump a couple more spots too, which really goes to show that you that failure is the assumption for the draft given he's literally 2nd overall. -
Spring Training games thread
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
The Cactus league as a whole appears to have a 5.78 ERA. Last year it was 5.51. -
Fall of the house of Busch-er
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in General Baseball Talk
I spot checked a bunch after I saw the announcement, there's a bunch of games at that level but they're all weeknights during the school year like you'd expect. -
Devil's advocate: the higher MLB salary means it's more likely those guys take assignment rather than opt out to an uncertain possibility of the MLB minimum on the high end.
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Hoyer and Hawkins Bad Judgment
Transmogrified Tiger replied to Banks-Williams's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
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You can always tell a Milford man
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taking a goal off the board so you can give a 'denial of a goalscoring opportunity' red card is hilarious, the EPL continues to innovate in refereeing absurdity
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Arraez is a career -13 defender at 2B, and the last 2 years in limited time it's been more like -18. If you're gonna pretend defense is fake why not pay Suarez or a league average hitter that might hit more than 7 XBH in a full season so you have some offensive upside to go with your defensive catastrophe. Heck tell Devers to do it, that guy loves moving around the infield
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Divisional Round: Bears vs Rams Sunday at 5:30 on NBC
Transmogrified Tiger replied to jersey cubs fan's topic in Other Sports
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Divisional Round: Bears vs Rams Sunday at 5:30 on NBC
Transmogrified Tiger replied to jersey cubs fan's topic in Other Sports
Part of the reason the Chiefs got housed in that Super Bowl is that Thuney at LT got overrun by the Eagles line. -
Steamer(huge grain of salt to begin with) projections sum up to a league-wide ERA of 4.21, and it projects four different Cubs SP better than that. 5 or even 6 if you want to be kind enough to Brown and Assad that if they started more than Steamer projects that they'd stay under.
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The sport is just too difficult to officiate at this level and avoid dramatic inconsistencies. I was pulling for the Bills so I'm probably biased but I still have no idea how review doesn't see firm possession when Cooks hits the ground. And even if not, is what McMillian was doing to Cooks prior to the ball arriving materially different than what White did?
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I get the instinct to add a LHH bat, but what RHH in the lineup are getting platoon protected or even pinch hit for? As odd as it might seem, I think that last spot needs to go to someone RHH who can play CF since there's more playing time to be had, be it Alcantara or an external signing.
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Trading Taillon
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I think the 'everyone is healthy' version is something like that, though it could be all 3 of Brown/Assad/Wicks in Iowa and a MiLB signing(like Keller last year) or someone like Hodge instead. But the 'everyone is healthy' version is unlikely to be necessary, and once we get much beyond opening day you'll inevitably have further shuffling based on performance.
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You in theory can(pending league approval) but the player needs to have something in it for them to agree. Ohtani is a unicorn in the sense that he'll have zero issues with short term cash flow through endorsements and such, so there's no hit to his quality of life. Then after retirement he can flee California(and possibly the US entirely) and have much better tax treatment on the bulk of his guaranteed money. Giving, say, Matthew Boyd a 30 million dollar deal with 25 million deferred has much more downside for that caliber of player, and they do 'lose' money through TMV on deferrals so there's a natural pressure the other direction.
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The AAV that counts towards the Luxury Tax is based on the net present value of the contract, that NPV is lowered by deferrals. Historically this didn't make a huge difference because deferrals were rare and when they did happened they didn't move the AAV by much since the deferred amount was on the margins. The Dodgers have popularized doing heavy deferrals, probably as a tax dodge for the player, which can change the AAV enough to be meaningful(Ohtani being the extreme example). In Bregman's case it's not nearly as seismic(appears to be lowering AAV by about 10%), but the motivation is likely similar as the amount Bregman 'loses' (from time value of money) is potentially offset by tax differences between Illinois/Chicago and his home in retirement(likely AZ where he lives now).
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Again, that is not how $/WAR works. You don't just take the first year of the deal and assume that's the productivity for the entirety of it. You need to discount for age and injury, especially for a pitcher and a deal as long as Cease's.
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No one expects Cease to put up nearly 25 WAR over his deal, if they did he would've gotten another 50 million. The market rate for FA is not dividing AAV by last year or this year's projected WAR, it's about expectations for the entirety of the contract which will inevitably have age-related decline in long term deals(never mind injury risk, especially for pitchers).
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They very much do not, market rate is a bit north of 10 million/WAR
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Gotta update your $/WAR priors man, saying Bregman hasn't been worth $35 in three years is some 'back in my day we could get a milkshake for a nickel' stuff
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He's fractured 3 different bones in 5 seasons, it gets intertwined with his inconsistency when healthy but he's not someone who would have a track record of reliability or availability.
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Accumulating PA by hitting high in the order and not being pinch hit/platooned is not going to lead to the truest signal. I don't think Bellinger's body is on the brink of falling apart, but he's missed about 25 days to the IL per year since the pandemic season with several different injuries. I don't think saying 'he got a bunch of PA so no risk there' is accurate, plus he's entering his 30s now where the body is at increased risk of breaking down.
