2022-23 Offseason Thread (Cubs)

[cl smooth]

 

To me, Instagram is Twitter since I don't have either.

You can’t compare the two. It’s apples and oranges. Twitter is more like a rotten crabapple and Instagram is the plastic orange you put out for display purposes only

 

And what's Tik Tok? I do have a Facebook account, so I'm not completely prehistoric. LOL.

 

Gum on the bottom of your shoe.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Im not a Twitter guy so forgive me for the naivete but how does horsefeathers like that even get discovered?

 

Well, to start, as that post clearly says, it's Instagram, not Twitter.

 

To answer your question, if a profile is set to public and not private, you can see all of their follows and followers without following them.

Do you get a notification when somebody you are following gets a new follower? I guess I'm just wondering why some shlub is checking Alex Cora's followers.

[jersey cubs fan]

Im not a Twitter guy so forgive me for the naivete but how does horsefeathers like that even get discovered?

 

Well, to start, as that post clearly says, it's Instagram, not Twitter.

 

To answer your question, if a profile is set to public and not private, you can see all of their follows and followers without following them.

Do you get a notification when somebody you are following gets a new follower? I guess I'm just wondering why some shlub is checking Alex Cora's followers.

Because they want to get hints about player movement. Likewise, when a guy is rumored to be on the trading block, people check to see if/when they stop following the team’s account.

[Soul]

 

Well, to start, as that post clearly says, it's Instagram, not Twitter.

 

To answer your question, if a profile is set to public and not private, you can see all of their follows and followers without following them.

 

To me, Instagram is Twitter since I don't have either.

You can’t compare the two. It’s apples and oranges. Twitter is more like a rotten crabapple and Instagram is the plastic orange you put out for display purposes only

horsefeathering brilliant.

[pitchcs]

Im not a Twitter guy so forgive me for the naivete but how does horsefeathers like that even get discovered?

 

Well, to start, as that post clearly says, it's Instagram, not Twitter.

 

To answer your question, if a profile is set to public and not private, you can see all of their follows and followers without following them.

Do you get a notification when somebody you are following gets a new follower? I guess I'm just wondering why some shlub is checking Alex Cora's followers.

 

Many people have nothing better to do with their time.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

There's more than a couple things I don't fully understand about the roster build at the moment, but maybe the thing I'm most curious about is what the plan is at catcher. The beat reporters seemed pretty adamant they were going to bring in a starting-caliber presence, but the lack of more than a whisper about anyone but Vazquez makes me curious if he was plan A, B, and C. The offensive bar is so low and Gomes' presence means they could take a chance on a pre-FA target that is maybe more speculative if they were confident in the defense, Reese McGuire to the Red Sox last year being a good example of this. Signing someone in the Barnhart/Hedges/Perez tier of players doesn't seem representative of their original intent, doubly so considering they aren't needing to compromise thanks to a huge SS contract. Maybe they think they can mold something out of Jorge Alfaro? He did hit .307/.360/.482 away from Petco last year, but he's not exactly a defensive stalwart so there's questions at both ends.

[minnesotacubsfan]

I wonder what Jeb is going to spend all that money on...new socks?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I wonder what Jeb is going to spend all that money on...new socks?

[jersey cubs fan]

Please clap? More like please don’t boo.

[Backtobanks]

There's more than a couple things I don't fully understand about the roster build at the moment, but maybe the thing I'm most curious about is what the plan is at catcher. The beat reporters seemed pretty adamant they were going to bring in a starting-caliber presence, but the lack of more than a whisper about anyone but Vazquez makes me curious if he was plan A, B, and C. The offensive bar is so low and Gomes' presence means they could take a chance on a pre-FA target that is maybe more speculative if they were confident in the defense, Reese McGuire to the Red Sox last year being a good example of this. Signing someone in the Barnhart/Hedges/Perez tier of players doesn't seem representative of their original intent, doubly so considering they aren't needing to compromise thanks to a huge SS contract. Maybe they think they can mold something out of Jorge Alfaro? He did hit .307/.360/.482 away from Petco last year, but he's not exactly a defensive stalwart so there's questions at both ends.

 

 

I really don't think there's much of a plan. If there ever was a plan, it seems that it is basically gone now and they're waiting it out to see what they can get for a discounted rate.

[SouthSideRyan]

 

More pitching and defense talk…Rays and Guardians getting singled out as if the Dodgers, Yankees, and Astros don’t pitch and defend

 

Maybe more than SS, I’m curious to see what they do on the pitching end. The Taillon move, really good one, suggest they have an eye on both velocity and missing more bats (his chase rate), but who else has that? Rodon does but and we’d all be into that if it happened. I’ve mentioned Matt Moore for the bullpen, 95 with a neary 30% CSW and 36% chase rate. Ottavino’s 95 with an impressoive 33% CSW and 13% SwStrk…Luke Weaver was 95 with a 36% O-Swing…Trevor May’s 96 with a 13% SwStrk… :dontknow: …Feels like they have to trade for a pitcher

 

This was Jim Hendry's plan in 2009.

[Bertz]

There's more than a couple things I don't fully understand about the roster build at the moment, but maybe the thing I'm most curious about is what the plan is at catcher. The beat reporters seemed pretty adamant they were going to bring in a starting-caliber presence, but the lack of more than a whisper about anyone but Vazquez makes me curious if he was plan A, B, and C. The offensive bar is so low and Gomes' presence means they could take a chance on a pre-FA target that is maybe more speculative if they were confident in the defense, Reese McGuire to the Red Sox last year being a good example of this. Signing someone in the Barnhart/Hedges/Perez tier of players doesn't seem representative of their original intent, doubly so considering they aren't needing to compromise thanks to a huge SS contract. Maybe they think they can mold something out of Jorge Alfaro? He did hit .307/.360/.482 away from Petco last year, but he's not exactly a defensive stalwart so there's questions at both ends.

 

I think the glass half full explanation would be they're going hard after Jansen. People are fairly wondering where the offense is going to come from if Swanson is the premier addition this offseason, and Jansen would be a good way to inject some more juice into the lineup. Also he's a cheaper financial option so if the LT is a major consideration he opens up more there as well.

 

Otherwise yeah it's tough to see what the thought process is. Both from numbers and reporting Narvaez seemed like the logical conclusion after Vazquez, but that ship sailed and it seems it did with little fight. Is Oakland going to flip Manny Pina, who'd fit right into that Vazquez/Narvaez mold? Is the plan to lean all the way into defense and go with Hedges? Like you said do they think they can fix an offensive-forward guy like Alfaro? Do they have really good reports on one of Barnhart/Perez/Casali? I'd believe anything.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think the glass half full explanation would be they're going hard after Jansen. People are fairly wondering where the offense is going to come from if Swanson is the premier addition this offseason, and Jansen would be a good way to inject some more juice into the lineup. Also he's a cheaper financial option so if the LT is a major consideration he opens up more there as well.

 

The thing that makes me pessimistic on this compared to the alternatives is I have a hard time seeing that deal work without a 3rd team unless the Jays are willing to ship off Jansen to beef up the farm system. Mayyybe there's a 'Conforto's ask is reasonable so we trade Happ and an arm for Jansen and sign Conforto' type permutation but that feels aggressively unlikely given the near radio silence on everything that's not the SS pursuit.

[Bertz]

I think the glass half full explanation would be they're going hard after Jansen. People are fairly wondering where the offense is going to come from if Swanson is the premier addition this offseason, and Jansen would be a good way to inject some more juice into the lineup. Also he's a cheaper financial option so if the LT is a major consideration he opens up more there as well.

 

The thing that makes me pessimistic on this compared to the alternatives is I have a hard time seeing that deal work without a 3rd team unless the Jays are willing to ship off Jansen to beef up the farm system. Mayyybe there's a 'Conforto's ask is reasonable so we trade Happ and an arm for Jansen and sign Conforto' type permutation but that feels aggressively unlikely given the near radio silence on everything that's not the SS pursuit.

 

That's fair, though I'd guess it's fairly likely they would take a deal for just prospects. Their farm has thinned out considerably the last two years, and if we treat Moreno as an MLBer instead of a prospect its downright bad. Even if it's just loading up knowing they're going to turn around and spend that capital in July I Toronto would be very interested in refueling their farm.

 

It is an illustration of just how dangerous this game Jed's playing is. Like all it takes is one GM to say "Happ or no deal" and Jed's essentially completely holed off from making substantial upgrade at catcher. He'll probably end up with a few good deals by waiting this long into FA, but you've gotta imagine it bites him hard at at least one position.

[Cubswin11]

Good analysis/overview on Swanson. The offensive concerns/red flags are things I’m worried about with him too on a huge deal.

 

 

[17 Seconds]

i don't get how we're going to add position players. we whiffed this year, next year is all pitching, and jed is terrified to make trades. not to mention happ will get expensive if he has another good year.

[jersey cubs fan]

i don't get how we're going to add position players. we whiffed this year, next year is all pitching, and jed is terrified to make trades. not to mention happ will get expensive if he has another good year.

Scoring runs is passé

[17 Seconds]

i don't get how we're going to add position players. we whiffed this year, next year is all pitching, and jed is terrified to make trades. not to mention happ will get expensive if he has another good year.

Scoring runs is passé

 

it does feel like jed's real plan is pitching depth and cheap defensive position players

[Bertz]

Good analysis/overview on Swanson. The offensive concerns/red flags are things I’m worried about with him too on a huge deal.

 

 

 

Yeah this is great, Lance is awesome. A few pieces of additional context I'd throw out there:

 

- Research has shown that athletic players tend to age better. My understanding is it's less about the athleticism, and more about how if you impact the game in multiple ways even if one area collapses the others can still keep your head above water (Jason Heyward as an extreme example)

- Part of the reason that hitter contact goes down with age is as a tradeoff for power. Swanson clearly made that trade in the '19/'20 offseason. Pre pandemic Swanson had a 9.4% walk rate, 22.5% K rate, and .140 ISO. Since he's at 7.6%, 26%, and .186 (with a less lively ball)

- Swanson since the pandemic is running below average walk rates, but Statcast has his chase rates in the 65-70th percentile range the last three years (and higher = good here). So like I know the instinct is to see high K's and low BB's and think he's Javy at the plate but very much no

- Barrel rate is one of the stickiest Statcast era hitting stats. Over the last three years among guys with 1000+ PAs, Swanson is 43rd out of 160. Within a stones throw of guys like Manny Machado (40th), Freddie Freeman (42nd), Willson Contreras (49th), and Kyle Tucker (50th)

 

I feel like there's a losing the forest for the trees deal with Swanson (with the fanbase generally, not calling you out specifically or anything). He's probably not as good as Turner or Correa, but he's *really* good. Like he's actually been better than Correa for the last three years by Fangraphs WAR. Contact is a very real issue but it's the difference between him being an all star and an MVP rather than the difference between being a bad player and a good one.

[Cubswin11]

Twins just signed Gallo. So maybe an indicator they’re out on Swanson with this report today.

 

[Post Count Padder]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

Is this anything or just random tea leaf reading from a blogger?

[Marlin Bystro]

There's more than a couple things I don't fully understand about the roster build at the moment, but maybe the thing I'm most curious about is what the plan is at catcher. The beat reporters seemed pretty adamant they were going to bring in a starting-caliber presence, but the lack of more than a whisper about anyone but Vazquez makes me curious if he was plan A, B, and C. The offensive bar is so low and Gomes' presence means they could take a chance on a pre-FA target that is maybe more speculative if they were confident in the defense, Reese McGuire to the Red Sox last year being a good example of this. Signing someone in the Barnhart/Hedges/Perez tier of players doesn't seem representative of their original intent, doubly so considering they aren't needing to compromise thanks to a huge SS contract. Maybe they think they can mold something out of Jorge Alfaro? He did hit .307/.360/.482 away from Petco last year, but he's not exactly a defensive stalwart so there's questions at both ends.

 

Maybe they should have just tried to sign Contreras back rather than the current fiasco. The underpants gnomes had a better plan than Jed and the Ricketts. This team is going to be hot garbage again next year. The only highlight will be getting a middling prospect back for the corpse of Cody Bellinger after we eat all the money.

 

The Swanson money is going to be super unintelligent spending so no way Jed goes for it. I'm not a big Swanson guy so I understand, but Correa should have been a Cub last year. I don't see a near term path and I'm not in on the current suspects in the minor leagues. We are fortunate are division stinks so maybe we can get 3rd place next year or maybe 2nd if the Brewers implode.

[Bertz]

 

I love this idea. Carrasco has been a guy I've really liked around the league for a while. I'm not sure there's another guy out there I like more as the other SP. I don't care for McCann but at this point short of Jansen we're not getting a catcher I like so whatever.

 

Carrasco, McCann, money to cover McCann's 2024 salary, and a 45 grade prospect in exchange for some org filler?

 

This would only work though if Jed misses on Swanson or if Jed's willing to jump the LT. $24M on top of whatever Swanson ends up making would probably take a second bat off the table if we're adhering to the luxury tax.

[UMFan83]

 

[Backtobanks]

 

I love this idea. Carrasco has been a guy I've really liked around the league for a while. I'm not sure there's another guy out there I like more as the other SP. I don't care for McCann but at this point short of Jansen we're not getting a catcher I like so whatever.

 

Carrasco, McCann, money to cover McCann's 2024 salary, and a 45 grade prospect in exchange for some org filler?

 

This would only work though if Jed misses on Swanson or if Jed's willing to jump the LT. $24M on top of whatever Swanson ends up making would probably take a second bat off the table if we're adhering to the luxury tax.

 

Send them Bote instead of a 45-grade prospect to help with the money. McCann is owed $24 million/2 years, Carrasco is owed $14 million /1 year and Bote is owed $9 million /2 years. McCann + Carrasco + $15 million for Bote (add a 45-grade prospect if necessary).