2022-23 Offseason Thread (Cubs)

[Cubswin11]

Interesting nugget from Heyman:

 

https://nypost.com/2022/12/22/giants-interest-in-michael-conforto-may-come-with-complications/

 

Coincidental that Hendricks (Kyle) and Hendriks (Liam) are available Chicagoans. …

 

Can’t see how it makes sense to trade Hendricks unless you are just trying to dump his salary

Yeah I think moving Hendricks would be a salary dump preseason. I personally would keep him if his reported offseason training to get more velo and mechanics back is going well. But you dump Hendricks, maybe even Madrigal for whatever you can get to clear most salary then maybe we have enough for Conforto, Mancini and a RP in FA yet.

[Gilby]

It'd be nice if something like Madrigal + a prospect for Seth Brown could be worked out.

[PriorFighter]

What about Yandy Diaz from the Rays? He's two (?) years from FA and the Rays have an infield crunch. Several sites list him as a trade candidate, but I've seen no buzz whatsoever. Coming off his best year, but has OPS'ed 110 or better each full year in MLB. Plays 3B so Wisdom could take the 1B Mervis prep role/power-first bat.

 

According to Rayscoloredglasses, Rays looking for offense or young arms. Team control obviously appeals quite a bit to them. Would one of Killian/Steele/Wesneski/Alzolay + a lower level positional prospect with upside get that done?

[muntjack]

Really feels - with Conforto off the FA board, a nominally full rotation, and a body at every position - that this Smyly signing has the potential to be to this offseason what the Hamels option was in 2018-2019. This isn’t a good or competitive team for multiple years as is. It’s a standard middling pro sports team nowadays: some good players but almost a deliberate effort to ensure not enough*

 

*I say this as someone who actually *likes* the moves made so far for the baseball team, but also we’ve seen this before

 

They seem to be trying to put complementary pieces in place first and then let a solid farm come up and raise the ceiling, almost inverting the traditional method. Time will tell, but I don't think I necessarily hate it.

[Bertz]

It'd be nice if something like Madrigal + a prospect for Seth Brown could be worked out.

 

I'd forgotten about Brown, I love this idea. He's a guy you definitely have to platoon, unlike Conforto when he's right, but he's likely a better bat than anyone else left in FA. He's also a much better athlete than most 1B/COF types, and Jed seems to be placing a premium on that athleticism. And at league minimum you can still do other stuff even if trying to stay under the LT.

 

BTV says Brown + Puk for Madrigal + Kilian is about fair?

[Tryptamine]

So they're a 200M team who is going to need to beat projections to win 80 games. Smart spending at its finest.

[17 Seconds]

So they're a 200M team who is going to need to beat projections to win 80 games. Smart spending at its finest.

 

aren't they projected at 81-82 wins right now? but still, yeah

[Cubswin11]

Assuming we are staying under the LT, I don’t think that’s a guarantee with all the money coming off next year to reset but still add a lot again. I think I’d go Segura for 3B and whoever is cheapest of Mancini, Belt, Aguilar, Hosmer (in that order of preference). Then add some other vet RP. Segura/Swanson/Nico and then a Wisdom, Mervis and whatever FA add of the 4 above rotate 1B/DH and OF (if Mancini). Then you hopefully move Madrigal and then have Mckinstry/Rays guy as the LHH hitting guy who can play basically everywhere.

[UMFan83]

So they're a 200M team who is going to need to beat projections to win 80 games. Smart spending at its finest.

 

Well they would be losing about 68m in pre-arb payroll going into 2024 (comparing 2023 pre-arb to 2024 pre-arb). Unfortunately that 68m savings is made up of Hendricks, Stroman, Bellinger, Happ, Gomes and Boxburger all hitting FA, so already an uphill climb to maintain that after this year.

[Cubswin11]

So they're a 200M team who is going to need to beat projections to win 80 games. Smart spending at its finest.

 

Well they would be losing about 68m in pre-arb payroll going into 2024 (comparing 2023 pre-arb to 2024 pre-arb). Unfortunately that 68m savings is made up of Hendricks, Stroman, Bellinger, Happ, Gomes and Boxburger all hitting FA, so already an uphill climb to maintain that after this year.

Obviously the hope/goal would be that some of the young guys all take steps that you have cheap production as replacements for some of those spots (Davis CF, Amaya C, whatever pitching emerges) and then can splurge on maybe only a guy or two who’s really a star guy. Also having Nico continue to grow, Suzuki take a step, Mervis being some sort of real thing would be big along with some of the young pitching on the roster.

Edited December 23, 2022 by Cubswin11

[mias_tisg]

Don't know if this is going to work but I think either way the Cubs are going to be maybe the most boring team in baseball. Their pitching rotation is made up of guys that don't throw heat and their lineup is made up of a guys that can play defense but can't hit for much power. There's going to be a lot of low scoring games, much like the 2nd half of last year. I guess winning is more fun than not winning but it's not going to be a team that excites anyone.

[UMFan83]

Don't know if this is going to work but I think either way the Cubs are going to be maybe the most boring team in baseball. Their pitching rotation is made up of guys that don't throw heat and their lineup is made up of a guys that can play defense but can't hit for much power. There's going to be a lot of low scoring games, much like the 2nd half of last year. I guess winning is more fun than not winning but it's not going to be a team that excites anyone.

 

Yeah ultimately winning makes it fun. If they aren't winning they will be a terribly boring team, though I can appreciate pitching to contact and good defense. If we can hang around and be competitive in the first half there's always a chance we can make a move or two for some big bats near the deadline.

 

I'm certainly not super enthusiastic about the offseason but there will be some things to look forward to.

[Bull]

So we're going into the season with Seiya as the big bat. Yikes.

Happ and Dansby with similar OPS last year. So…three almost big bats?? A few years ago here someone was arguing that multiple 3-4 win players were better than the same WAR concentrated in one player surrounded by 1 win players. Not sure if they were right, but we will have the opportunity to see.

[mias_tisg]

[Bertz]

Don't know if this is going to work but I think either way the Cubs are going to be maybe the most boring team in baseball. Their pitching rotation is made up of guys that don't throw heat and their lineup is made up of a guys that can play defense but can't hit for much power. There's going to be a lot of low scoring games, much like the 2nd half of last year. I guess winning is more fun than not winning but it's not going to be a team that excites anyone.

 

What? This isn't true at all. The team projects to hit a bunch of dongs. Like there's plenty of real things to complain about on this team without making stuff up.

[mias_tisg]

Don't know if this is going to work but I think either way the Cubs are going to be maybe the most boring team in baseball. Their pitching rotation is made up of guys that don't throw heat and their lineup is made up of a guys that can play defense but can't hit for much power. There's going to be a lot of low scoring games, much like the 2nd half of last year. I guess winning is more fun than not winning but it's not going to be a team that excites anyone.

 

What? This isn't true at all. The team projects to hit a bunch of dongs. Like there's plenty of real things to complain about on this team without making stuff up.

I think there's plenty of reason to be skeptical of their power bats. Suzuki, Happ, Bellinger, and Swanson have all either been inconsistent or we haven't seen them be consistent and they lost basically all their power at the catcher position. If everything goes right though, they could hit a bunch of dongs.

[Tim]

Willson was almost as much a DH as catcher last year. They have not yet filled that spot. They could easily get as much power as they did last year from there. And they'll likely get much more from 1B and other spots.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Don't know if this is going to work but I think either way the Cubs are going to be maybe the most boring team in baseball. Their pitching rotation is made up of guys that don't throw heat and their lineup is made up of a guys that can play defense but can't hit for much power. There's going to be a lot of low scoring games, much like the 2nd half of last year. I guess winning is more fun than not winning but it's not going to be a team that excites anyone.

 

What? This isn't true at all. The team projects to hit a bunch of dongs. Like there's plenty of real things to complain about on this team without making stuff up.

I think there's plenty of reason to be skeptical of their power bats. Suzuki, Happ, Bellinger, and Swanson have all either been inconsistent or we haven't seen them be consistent and they lost basically all their power at the catcher position. If everything goes right though, they could hit a bunch of dongs.

 

ZiPS says 7 of their current lineup are going to have at least a .175 IsoP, with 5 of them hitting 20+ HR and Morel and Bellinger at 19 and 18. Velazquez and eventually Canario offer a similar projection from ZiPS off the bench/AAA for depth. There is no 40 HR threat but that doesn't mean they are going to struggle to slug.

[Post Count Padder]

Bummer about Rivas. Always liked him and he's a decent bench bat. He is gonna get claimed or traded.

 

Kay is a former first rounder and decent prospect and also a lefty but has not been good in his brief time in the bigs.

[Cubswin11]

He shouldn’t have been determining any additions and certainly is just a guy but DFA’ing Rivas for the Kay guy…. we have to be adding some sort of 3B/1B guy, right? It’s Wisdom, Mervis (who we have no idea on), Higgins, Morel, Madrigal, Mckinstry/Rays guy (probably only keeping 1 of Mckinstry/Rays guy) for the corners. With obviously Bellinger able to play some 1B but then there’s OF problems.

 

Have to think Mancini, Belt, Aguilar or Hosmer is gonna happen. Which doesn’t block Mervis if he’s a thing since there’s the DH.

Edited December 23, 2022 by Cubswin11

[Cubswin11]

I had a shinning when Kay was DFA'd...Lefty averaging 94 the past couple seasons...Pretty sure he was one of those Spencer Howard type P prospects who was too good for the last coredation?

Kay seems intriguing

[Post Count Padder]

He shouldn’t have been determining any additions and certainly is just a guy but DFA’ing Rivas for the Kay guy…. we have to be adding some sort of 3B/1B guy, right? It’s Wisdom, Mervis (who we have no idea on), Higgins, Morel, Madrigal, Mckinstry/Rays guy (probably only keeping 1 of Mckinstry/Rays guy) for the corners. With obviously Bellinger able to play some 1B but then there’s OF problems.

 

Have to think Mancini, Belt, Aguilar or Hosmer is gonna happen. Which doesn’t block Mervis if he’s a thing since there’s the DH.

That's what I'm thinking? Maybe Mancini is in the works? But I believe the 40 man is still full?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

He shouldn’t have been determining any additions and certainly is just a guy but DFA’ing Rivas for the Kay guy…. we have to be adding some sort of 3B/1B guy, right? It’s Wisdom, Mervis (who we have no idea on), Higgins, Morel, Madrigal, Mckinstry/Rays guy for the corners. With obviously Bellinger able to play some 1B but then there’s OF problems.

 

Have to think Mancini, Belt, Aguilar or Hosmer is gonna happen. Which doesn’t block Mervis if he’s a thing since there’s the DH.

 

Weirdly I think the outfield is probably more shallow when you think about the likely 26 man roster. If Velazquez doesn't make the team, your primary backup OF is...Wisdom? Mastrobuoni/McKinstry?

[UMFan83]

I’m disappointed that this is no longer relevant:

 

[Cubswin11]

He shouldn’t have been determining any additions and certainly is just a guy but DFA’ing Rivas for the Kay guy…. we have to be adding some sort of 3B/1B guy, right? It’s Wisdom, Mervis (who we have no idea on), Higgins, Morel, Madrigal, Mckinstry/Rays guy for the corners. With obviously Bellinger able to play some 1B but then there’s OF problems.

 

Have to think Mancini, Belt, Aguilar or Hosmer is gonna happen. Which doesn’t block Mervis if he’s a thing since there’s the DH.

 

Weirdly I think the outfield is probably more shallow when you think about the likely 26 man roster. If Velazquez doesn't make the team, your primary backup OF is...Wisdom? Mastrobuoni/McKinstry?

Morel? But yeah some sort of OF add could be needed yet too. Even if it’s like a Peralta (who can DH), Grossman, Pollock, or Pham as a cheap bet? Profar makes some sense for the roster now too since he can move all around but he probably takes a multi year deal and the others 1 year or like 1+1s. One of those guys with a 1B add of the names mentioned seems feasible and stay under the tax. Then cut bait with Madrigal and/or one of Mckinstry/Mastrobuoni and could start Velazquez in AAA