They're an absolute lock with 1 more win. No bad losses, 11 Q1/Q2 wins. And there's an extra at-large bid with the PAC-12 collapsing. Gun to my head, I'd say they make it losing out and finishing 17-15.
Last 4 in right now on bracketmatrix are:
Vanderbilt, 6 Q1/Q2
Oklahoma, 7 Q1/Q2, 1 Q3 loss
Wake Forest, 7 Q1/Q2, 1 Q3 loss
Arkansas, 4 Q1/Q2