Yooooooooooooennis Cespedes: To Oakland pg 44

[Little Slide Rooter]

The more I think about Cespedes and Soler, the more I wonder if the best play here is to sign BOTH. The reason being risk factor. It's at least fairly likely one of these guys doesn't live up to their hype. I'd also say it's at least as likely that between the two of them, at least one pays for the pairs contracts. If Cespedes gets 40 mill(I don't think he's getting 60) and Soler gets 20, my guess is it's a better bet that we'll get sufficient production that covers their money. Meanwhile, with one or the other, to me, there's much more of a chance we don't. Granted, worst case being neither winds up helping out all that much and we've basically wasted 10 to 12 mill per year over the next 6. But, I think we could live with that kind of downside, based on the possible upside involved as well. But, to maximize the upside, I think it's smarter to grab both. Thoughts?

 

I've been on board with signing both for a while now. Neither players is going to sign a contract that would be crippling (or even significantly damaging) if they flop and both could be terrific bargains if they pan out.

 

There's no guarantee there will be impact FAs on the market in the next few years (the 2013 pitching market is already thinning), but we know Cespedes and Soler are available and have impact potential. I'd much rather invest 4/20 into Soler and 6/40-60 into Cespedes than feel I have to invest 6/150 into one of Hamels (29) or Greinke (29).

 

I don't see why we couldn't sign both and Hamels or Cain and still have money left over for either one more fairly big free agent or multiple smaller needs. Cespedes and Solar would be costing a combined 15 mil/season at most and we have something like 40 mil coming off the books after 2012 on top of whatever's left of the 35 or so mil that came off after last season which I highly doubt that we'll have spent when all is said and done even with Cespedes and Solar. How much have we spent so far anyway? DeJesus was the most expensive at 4.25 mil and I don't think we spent much more than a combined 5 mil on the rest not counting those given raises.

[dew1679666265]

I don't see why we couldn't sign both and Hamels or Cain and still have money left over for either one more fairly big free agent or multiple smaller needs.

 

I agree, and that's why I said "feel like we have to" sign Hamels/Greinke. If we sign both Cespedes and Soler, then we add one potential impact player for the short term and one for the long term. If Cespedes is productive by next offseason, it makes it a little less important for us to make a splash with an elite FA pitcher, while still giving us the ability to do so if Theo/Hoyer feel it's in our best interests. However, if we, say, only sign Soler, then we'll still be pretty desperate for an infusion of impact potential on the ML roster and may be in a position where we have to sign one of the pitchers or we don't contend in 2013.

 

Basically, signing Cespedes (potentially) gives us more options going forward and gives us more versatility in paths to quick contention while having a relatively small cost for the upside. Soler gives us elite potential at a reasonable price. Unless Theo/Hoyer simply don't believe in one of them, there's no reason not to sign both.

[SABR Gamer]

 

Cespedes HR tonight.

 

Am I the only one who is kind of reminded of Sammy?

 

Not his stance, but his physical appearance (body, not face), demeanor and swing.

Edited January 19, 2012 by New York Cubs Fan

[Guest]

Curious what some of our more scout-savvy members think of Cespedes' swing. I'm not even close to qualify, but it seemed pretty long to me(maybe it was how long his bat was). He also bears a pretty uncanny physical resemblance to Byrd.

[davell]

Power's a 60, pimp tool's an 80-Keith Law on Twitter tonight.

[manbearcub]

His swing looks like a cross between Jason Giambi and Gary Sheffield.

[Sammy Sofa]

He would be worth it just to give @thekapman something to bitch about.

 

Yesssss.

[questionmarkgrace]

His swing actually doesnt look like a prototypical long swing to me. It may appear to be a long swing because he is way out in front of this ball but in actuality his front shoulder stays in and his head doesnt move til after his follow through. All good signs mechanically. Also his hips are lightning quick he actually had to slow down to avoid pulling it fair. Plus good plate coverage on a ball that was on the outside corner.

 

For those hating on his soriano pose after the homerun; you are misunderstanding. Players in DR winter league are encouraged to be cocky flip the bat be flashy, etc. Its part of the show. These are like neighborhood teams playing each other often with local baseball fame on the teams. There is pride at stake and one uping the other team is common. The down fall is that every year there are also tons of fights.

[OleMissCub]

turning on 97 mph gas like that is impressive in of itself

[ConstableRabbit]

turning on 97 mph gas like that is impressive in of itself

I didn't even notice that the first time I watched it-- yeesh.

[Bote McBoteface]

in AND of itself.

[CubmanPi]

I'm not sure when the homerun call stopped and the commentary resumed, but that was awesome.

[jersey cubs fan]

turning on 97 mph gas like that is impressive in of itself

I didn't even notice that the first time I watched it-- yeesh.

 

are we going to trust dominican televised pitch speed indicators?

[Guest]

turning on 97 mph gas like that is impressive in of itself

I didn't even notice that the first time I watched it-- yeesh.

 

are we going to trust dominican televised pitch speed indicators?

 

Found this on the guy who was pitching, posted last month.

 

He has always been a hard thrower, topping out at 95 MPH as a 22 year old in 2009. Since then, I've heard his top velocity has ticked up a bit and I'm not surprised by the talk of him hitting triple digits in the Dominican League.

 

So perhaps exaggerated, but not more than your typical minor league stadium gun in all likelihood.

[sneakypower]

his swing reminds me of Juan Gonzalez with less of a leg kick

 

 

edit: was talked about in the Concepcion thread, but didn't want to start a tangent

 

Cespedes' 2011 MLE by league equivalencies:

 

Midwest Lg (A): .226/.277/.401

California Lg (A+): .233/.285/.416

Carolina Lg (A+): .250/.308/.457

FL State Lg (A+): .258/.319/.477

Texas Lg (AA): .262/.324/.487

Eastern Lg (AA): .268/.332/.502

Southern Lg (AA): .274/.340/.515

[Guest]

his swing reminds me of Juan Gonzalez with less of a leg kick

 

 

edit: was talked about in the Concepcion thread, but didn't want to start a tangent

 

Cespedes' 2011 MLE by league equivalencies:

 

Midwest Lg (A): .226/.277/.401

California Lg (A+): .233/.285/.416

Carolina Lg (A+): .250/.308/.457

FL State Lg (A+): .258/.319/.477

Texas Lg (AA): .262/.324/.487

Eastern Lg (AA): .268/.332/.502

Southern Lg (AA): .274/.340/.515

I'll take the Southern League for the win, Alex.

[NewUserName]

his swing reminds me of Juan Gonzalez with less of a leg kick

 

 

edit: was talked about in the Concepcion thread, but didn't want to start a tangent

 

Cespedes' 2011 MLE by league equivalencies:

 

Midwest Lg (A): .226/.277/.401

California Lg (A+): .233/.285/.416

Carolina Lg (A+): .250/.308/.457

FL State Lg (A+): .258/.319/.477

Texas Lg (AA): .262/.324/.487

Eastern Lg (AA): .268/.332/.502

Southern Lg (AA): .274/.340/.515

 

Does this mean he sucks? I have not been overly enamored with him but really had nothing to go on. I liked his swing in the video, but my guess is that I would like a lot of HR swings.

[Guest]

Does this mean he sucks? I have not been overly enamored with him but really had nothing to go on. I liked his swing in the video, but my guess is that I would like a lot of HR swings.

 

Assuming he's simply an average defender and baserunner, he'd be about a 2 WAR player in the worst case, and a 4-5 win player in the best case.

[abuck1220]

 

Cespedes HR tonight.

 

i want that guy to play for my team.

 

if the cubs sign cespedes and he and jackson and rizzo all start the season at aaa, i'm going to be in des moines four nights a week.

 

you can sleep in my garage.

[MSG T]

 

Cespedes HR tonight.

 

i want that guy to play for my team.

 

if the cubs sign cespedes and he and jackson and rizzo all start the season at aaa, i'm going to be in des moines four nights a week.

 

you can sleep in my garage.

 

I'll pick you guys up on my way to the park.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I hope you [expletive] aren't sitting in my section.

[Sammys Boombox]

 

Cespedes HR tonight.

 

i want that guy to play for my team.

 

if the cubs sign cespedes and he and jackson and rizzo all start the season at aaa, i'm going to be in des moines four nights a week.

 

you can sleep in my garage.

 

I'll pick you guys up on my way to the park.

 

I was thinking about this today. Des Moines is 3 hours from here.

[Guest]

 

Cespedes HR tonight.

 

i want that guy to play for my team.

 

if the cubs sign cespedes and he and jackson and rizzo all start the season at aaa, i'm going to be in des moines four nights a week.

 

you can sleep in my garage.

I have a pool and pond, the pond's good for you.

[Irrelevant Dude]

I'm sure this has been posted somewhere, but what is the timeline on Cespedes and Soler being cleared to sign?

[Rob]

I'm sure this has been posted somewhere, but what is the timeline on Cespedes and Soler being cleared to sign?

 

Indeterminate.

 

They are expected to establish residency sometime "soon." After that, it could be anywhere from 2 hours to 2 weeks before they've cleared the necessary hurdles to be declared a free agent.

 

I expect Soler will take his time shopping around though.