Robbie Ray Is Exactly the Kind of Pitcher Cubs Should Be Pursuing Ahead of MLB Trade Deadline

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It’s no secret that the Chicago Cubs’ rotation has been dismantled with injuries from the word "go" this year. For a team that’s still well above .500, and would be in the postseason if the proceedings got underway today, let’s break down why Robbie Ray is the starter most worth pursuing at the trade deadline.

Robbie Ray Trade Target Scouting Report

Ray is a 34-year-old veteran pitcher for the San Francisco Giants. He's 8-6 so far this season, and he currently holds a 3.33 earned run average through 20 appearances (19 starts). The southpaw has been around the block, tossing just north of 1,500 innings with 1,830 punchouts, and even in his age-34 season, he’s found a way to be productive on the West Coast for a moribund team.

Contract

One of the reasons Ray would be such a great fit for the Cubs is his contract situation. He’s on the books for $25 million this year, but the veteran starter will be a free agent after the conclusion of the World Series. With a lot of the Cubs’ rotation on the injured list, Ray could file in and the Cubs wouldn’t be tied to him beyond the 2026 season.

With the Giants being obvious sellers who are well below .500, the Cubs could be a suitor and may only have to offload a prospect or two to get Ray.

Pitch Mix

Ray is like a lot of veteran pitchers in that he has a varied arsenal. He leads with a fastball that he utilizes 35 percent of the time, and it rides in at 93.3 miles per hour. His primary option plays well, allowing just a .234 batting average with 16 extra-base hits over 171 plate appearances.

His slider (26 percent), changeup (17 percent), sinker (12 percent) and curveball (10 percent) round out a five-pitch repertoire. Three of his five options have a batting average against below the .250 mark.

Strengths

Ray is a finesse pitcher, sporting a below-average whiff rate, chase rate and strikeout percentage. How does he thrive? He works off of soft contact. The crafty lefty is holding opposing hitters to just a 38.4 percent hard-hit rate, good enough for the 52nd percentile. This directly contributes to a .239 expected batting average. which would play incredibly well in front of the Cubs' sterling defense.

Ray’s off-speed offerings are a main contributor, as his off-speed run value is in the 93rd percentile, and his knuckle curve has proved to be the most lethal in his tool box, allowing three hits and just one extra-base hit over 34 plate appearances that have ended with the pitch.

Weaknesses

Ray has a few metrics working against him, one of them including extension. The Giants’ starter already has a fastball that clocks in at a below average velocity. Add a 6.2 foot extension (25th percentile) on top of that, and his pitches don’t appear to get up on hitters very quickly. Ray also gives up plenty of lofted contact, as he’s generating a ground ball just 36.5 percent of the time (20th percentile). It’s something he’s dealt with a lot in his career, but the 19.1 degree average launch angle paints a fine line; he can generate fly ball outs with lower exit velocities, but if somebody sqaaures up a ball, he can get hit around a lot worse than a pitcher with better raw stuff.

Trade Compensation

Rental pitchers are are always in high demand, and that'll be doubly true this year as contending teams look to compete for a title without clogging up their payrolls ahead of the impending lockout. A top-100 prospect isn't a completely unreasonable price, though someone just outside of that range (Kane Kepley, Pedro Ramirez, etc.) would likely be enough to get a deal done.