Cory Sparks

Image courtesy of © Allan Henry-Imagn Images Kevin Alcántara is, at least superficially, posing a good problem for the Chicago Cubs. He's on a power binge for the Triple-A Iowa Cubs this spring. Let's dig into his numbers, and the choices the Cubs have with him. Background If you've been tracking Alcántara's career closely, you already know what his ceiling looks like, but you also know ho9w stubbornly far beneath it he's remained over the last few years. What was missing, to achieve that metaphorical ascent? A literal one. That's what Alcántara's achieving this spring. He's finally launching the ball. There's no slug on the ground, so he's taken his swing and his batted-ball profile to where there's a ton of it. Season Avg. LA Ground % Line Drive % Fly Ball % Pop Up % Pull % Center % Oppo % 2024 5.3° 51.7 25.3 18.4 4.6 48.3 21.8 29.9 2025 9.5° 46.2 24.9 23.3 6.3 40.3 23.7 36 2026 16.9° 32.8 15.6 39.1 12.5 35.9 39.1 25 Alcántara slugged just over .700 on contact in each of his two previous season stints in Triple-A. This year, that number is a mind-boggling (and, admittedly, unsustainable) 1.078. He's become an elite producer of power, at least at the Triple-A level. There's just one problem, and it's exactly what you'd guess, if you've been tracking Alcántara's career closely. Season O-Swing Z-Swing Z-Contact Whiff Rate 2024 32.1 62 80 31.8 2025 31.7 61.3 82.7 30.5 2026 35.1 61.1 73.6 38.6 To get to his power, Alcántara has sacrificed contact, in a profile that had no room for that tradeoff. He's striking out at a rate that would preclude a player from succeeding in the majors, and he's doing it against worse pitchers than they have in the majors. The implication, then, is that he'd strike out over 40% of the time in the big leagues. That's Brett Jackson territory. Alcántara still has to find the happy medium, where he's lifting the ball but can also control the strike zone and make consistent contact. Still, it's exciting to see just how much power he can generate when things go well. He’s also an absolute ball hawk in the outfield, as his 60-grade fielding tool is the highest on his MLB Pipeline scouting report. So what choices do the Cubs have? Let’s go over them. Promote Alcántara They could promote ‘The Jaguar’, but that comes with some complications. A couple of moves have resulted in a domino effect that makes this guy’s point of entry a little tougher. For one, the team locked down one of the best third basemen in the game, Alex Bregman, for the foreseeable future. That pushes sophomore Matt Shaw into (mostly) a corner outfield role. When Shaw is in right field, Seiya Suzuki takes up the DH spot, and then there’s no room for Alcántara. Of course, Alcántara would be behind Moisés Ballesteros on anyone's DH depth chart, anyway, even if Suzuki weren't in the picture. With Ian Happ, Suzuki, Shaw and Ballesteros all playing reasonably well, there's no short-term path to playing time with the parent club. Have Him Change Positions This is a nice little dream, but not much of a potential reality. Alcántara doesn't have any of the skills to play an infield position other than first base, and all of those spots are locked down, anyway. If he could become a solid first baseman, he would fit neatly with Michael Busch as a platoon partner, but that puts a lot of pressure on him to mash lefties and make more contact. It's also far from a guarantee that he can simply slide to that very different position and be above-average. His best defensive fit could be as a platoon partner for Pete Crow-Armstrong, but Crow-Armstrong is the best defensive center fielder in baseball; you usually don't platoon players with that much value in their glove. Keep Him In Iowa For a Little Longer This is the obvious course of action. Beyond simply keeping their powder dry, letting Alcántara continue amassing playing time in Iowa encourages him to keep developing, and avoids ruffling the feathers of any veterans. Happ and Suzuki are both due to be free agents this fall, and it would be no surprise if both land elsewhere. If even one does, playing time will be available in 2027's Cubs outfield, and if Alcántara keeps fixing holes in his game, he could be a candidate for that job. While the team is healthy, though, keeping him in Iowa lets everyone involved stay in rhythm and play every day, and gives Alcántara time to solve that glaring swing-and-miss problem, if possible. Trade the Surplus The last option is to trade Alcántara. Obviously, it’d be great to have a talent of his caliber at Wrigley, but right now, there's almost no chance he would be better than Happ, Suzuki or even Shaw. Power brings mass appeal in 2026, and this guy has plenty of it. The strikeouts have been an issue, but there are plenty of teams who might give up something to gamble on the power potential in Alcántara's bat, especially given his solid defensive platform. Before dealing him, the team would have to feel some confidence that they could re-sign either Suzuki or Happ, or that Shaw can be a regular in a corner come next season. They can't afford to go spend major free-agent dollars on multiple corner bats this winter, and the class looks thin, anyway. For now, Alcántara is an intriguing, enigmatic piece of the Cubs' organizational puzzle. His prospect stock could still skyrocket or plummet, but at the moment, it's holding in a middle range. The upside has never been more apparent. 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