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Rob

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Everything posted by Rob

  1. Rob
    Not really. Sure. If you have a true 80 grade defender, they only have to hit so much to be a solid big leaguer. But -- and I think people are getting better about this -- we used to hear the term "80-grade defender" tossed around a lot more frequently. It was attached to guys like Albert Almora at various points. And most of those guys were never near the defender that PCA is. When those guys came up and hit anemically, they weren't viable big leaguers. So they didn't get the playing time to make adjustments at the plate. Long story short -- I think a lot of us got burned by guys with prospect profiles that looked a lot like PCA's. And if you're somebody thinking that those guys are basically lotto tickets like a lot of lower minors flamethrowers, then yeah -- it's tough to build around them. I understand the desire to move them. But like I said -- I think people are getting better about only attaching 80 grades to guys that truly earn it. So I'm going to keep that in mind when thinking about player values moving forward.
  2. Rob
    Swanson just recently dropped out of the top 30 position players in fWAR this season. That's not top 30 on the Cubs. It's all of baseball. Dansby is one of the best players in baseball despite his uneven offensive performance. He's nowhere near being relegated to a bench role.
  3. Rob
    Alex Bregman and Seiya Suzuki rank 15th and 16th in baseball for position player fWAR, with 4.2 each. PCA has more than both of them combined. But that's not the highest consecutive fWAR figures where he beats their combined figures. In fact, you have to get all the way up to the 5th and 6th ranked players -- Otto Lopez (4.8) and Elly de la Cruz (4.6) before their combined fWAR is greater than PCA's.
  4. Rob
    With today's performance, PCA's 2026 has moved into the top 5 Cubs seasons of all time. Rogers Hornsby, Sammy Sosa, Ernie Banks, and Ron Santo each have one season better. That's the whole list.
  5. Rob
    Every player who has posted 10+ fWAR in a season as a primary centerfielder is either in the Hall of Fame (Mays, Mantle, Cobb, Musial, Speaker) or well on their way (Trout + Judge). I'd love to see PCA join that elite group.
  6. Rob
    His is probably the flukiest. And the "fakest" amongst them. He ran a .304 BABIP for his career. But that season he was at .341. And here's his Total Zone figures: 1985 - 5 1986 - 4 1987 - 1 1988 - 3 1989 - 2 1990 - 25 1991 - 1 1992 - -5 1993 - -6 1994 - 1 1995 - 4 1996 - 9 For a guy who spent most of his career hovering in the "slightly above average CF" range, he suddenly put up one of the top 20 fielding seasons in CF history. Since fielding stats are so fuzzy for guys even now, I'm pretty hesitant to buy in on him being anywhere near that good. In reality, PCA's 2026 is probably already better than Dykstra's 1990. But still an interesting topic, I thought.
  7. Rob
    If he stopped playing today, PCA's 8.4 fWAR would be the 52nd best season by a CF in history. Names above him on the list: Willie Mays 8x (1954, 1955, 1958, 1957, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1965) Mickey Mantle 5x (1955, 1956, 1957, 1958, 1961) Ty Cobb 5x (1910, 1911, 1912, 1915, 1917) Tris Speaker 5x (1912, 1913, 1914, 1920, 1923) Mike Trout 5x (2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2018) Stan Musial 3x (1944, 1948, 1949) Joe Dimaggio 3x (1937, 1939, 1941) Ken Griffey Jr. 3x (1993, 1996, 1997) Aaron Judge 2x (2022, 2024) Benny Kauff 2x (1914, 1915) Hank Aaron 1x (1961) Rickey Henderson 1x (1985) Duke Snider 1x (1953) Fred Lynn 1x (1979) Joe Jackson 1x (1911) Jacoby Ellsbury 1x (2011) Lenny Dykstra 1x (1990) Cy Seymour 1x (1905) Josh Hamilton 1x (2010) There's still some one-offs in there for various reasons (injuries, drugs, deadball era, etc...). But PCA is beginning to reach rarefied air. It's hard to put up seasons like this unless somebody is in possession of Hall of Fame caliber tools. Hell, there's a bunch of Hall of Famers who never put up a season quite this good. And we're still in mid-August.
  8. Rob
    Honestly, I'm interested in the concept of buying low on him this offseason. He's still running a 12.2% walk rate versus an 18.4% strikeout rate. The power is way down. Maybe it's his injuries failing to heal. Maybe part of it is ballpark. But he's also posted a .329 xwOBA. So even with his failings, he'd look like an above-average bat if he just had neutral luck (his BABIP is one of the lowest of his career right now). That's down pretty far from the estimates of him after his mammoth half-season in 2024 and the start of 2025. But I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him bounce back into the 3-4 fWAR range next year. And there's upside for more. He's burned some bridges this season. If the Dodgers front office is willing to eat a significant chunk of the contract, I'd happily take a flyer on him.
  9. Rob
    Josiah HartshornOwen AyersJaxon WigginsCade TownsendEthan ConradKaleb WingKane KepleyCaden SorrellMyles BaileyJames TriantosBrooks CapleWill SandersBrandon BirdsellJuan CabadaDerniche ValdezAriel ArmasEli LovichRiley MartinJostin FlorentinoGrant Kipp
  10. Rob
    The Cubs staff ranks 27th in baseball in pitching fWAR. 25th for SP. Our run prevention was coming from defensive excellence, not pitching excellence. Having an even average staff with this team defense should significantly cut our runs allowed per game. We've been decimated by injuries and have cobbled together enough serviceable arms to stay afloat thanks to the aforementioned team defense. But guys like Colin Rea are not playoff caliber pitchers. It was time for an upgrade.
  11. Rob
    No evidence. Pure speculation. Hope I'm wrong.
  12. Rob
    I think Jed is going to balk at the prices for a controlled starter. And since he's already had a very solid move for that cements this trade deadline as better than the last one, I could see him declining to pull the trigger on any big moves. If we end up with another starter, I'm guessing it's a rental swingman type that moves into the bullpen if enough players get healthy.
  13. Rob
    I don't think we are adding bench players unless we use guys like Pedro Ramirez to snag a controllable starter. And unfortunately, I don't think Jed is going to find a good controllable starter he's willing to spend much prospect capital on. At this stage, I think the most likely outcome is that Jed grabs a good reliever and a guy from the Soroka model last year. A rental who is an upgrade over our 5th starter mess, but would probably move to the pen if enough players are healthy come the playoffs. Or maybe instead of a swingman he just goes straight with a second pen arm. I'm prepared to be underwhelmed. But Gausman was a good add at a fine price. So the trade deadline wont be a total bust.
  14. Rob
    I like Bateman and Southisene, but this is a pretty small price to pay - especially considering how large an upgrade this is and how desperately we need it.
  15. Rob
    We'd signed Tyler Austin in the offseason to be that guy. They said he'd be out "months" after the knee procedure in spring training, but I haven't heard anything about a rehab assignment or timeline since then. At this point I'm doubtful he ever takes a plate appearance for us. But there is still Jonathon Long and BJ Murray in AAA. Both are reasonable bench options to come up as part of the roster shuffle when we start making other moves.
  16. Rob
    Best comp I can think of is Andruw Jones in his 20s. Transcendent defense. 30+ HR power. 20+ steals. Strikes out a bit more than average. Fluctuating walk rate that's sometimes pretty good. There's also ways to tweak a Mike Cameron comp to make it work pretty well.
  17. Rob
    I'm not attached to any specific names. Mike Soroka wouldn't have been anybody's top 3 choice last year -- but if he'd stayed healthy and done what he did for Arizona this season, we'd have been thrilled with the add. I just want three good healthy arms. One rotation, one bullpen. I don't care where the third one goes. We're dealing with small samples the rest of the season. It's entirely possible for a #3-4 guy type to outgun a Skubal the rest of the way. No sense in blowing up the farm for any of the arms I see on the market. Just grab the cheapest reasonable options and hope they're pumped to be in a playoff race.
  18. Rob
    Of course, a no-trade list is not really a no-trade list. It's a "you have to incentivize me to waive this" list. Most of those lists are now populated by teams the players think will be in the market at the trade deadline -- such that they can get an extra $1m relocation fee or whatever for agreeing to waive. It's just gamesmanship. The number of players that wont actually accept a trade to a team on their no-trade list is pretty small. 90+% of them just want a bribe to do so.
  19. Rob
    Nah. With his speed and power, PCA always had a chance to BABIP his way to crazy numbers. And I think that's part of this. But that's not to take away from the plate discipline improvements -- which appear to be real. He's making much better swing decisions.
  20. Rob
    It's worth noting that Javy batted .299/.371/.515 and put up 2.0 fWAR in 47 games there. He was actually worth a pretty good prospect haul. Just not this much.
  21. Rob
    He heard that.
  22. Rob
    Not this early. Not with our pitching staff. Maybe around the 7th inning if the lead is holding up.
  23. Rob
    Lol Dansby.
  24. Rob
    Angel Guzman and Junior Lake are the correct answers.
  25. Rob
    1. Please no. He's a piece of human garbage and I don't want my money going in his pockets. 2. Please no. He was bad in Japan last year. 3. Please no. He's 35 years old. There's not much reason to suspect he's going to get any better than he was last year. 4. Please no. He was never all that great to begin with. He had two great years - 2018 and 2020. For the rest of his career, he floated between a 1 - 3 fWAR guy. 5. Please no. He'd be a distraction for the clubhouse. 6. Please no. Only the chuds would be excited by that signing, and I hate chuds and want to deny them any happiness.
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