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Rob

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Everything posted by Rob

  1. Rob
    That's like arguing that 2016 Felix and 2016 Scherzer had similar values, when the trajectories of the careers were going in opposite directions. Castillo is 31. His fastball has lost a couple ticks in recent years. His groundball rate has cratered. And he's developing a home run problem despite playing half his games in Safeco. He's still got some value. I don't want to imply otherwise. But he's not a big threat to be a Cy Young contender like Snell is.
  2. Rob
    Maybe? But if the Mets can afford this kind of contract, surely the Cubs could have afforded literally any other contract.
  3. Rob
    If it weren't for Boyd, I'd have had some interest in Montgomery as our reclamation project for the rotation. He was awful last season, but he's got a track record and I can give a partial pass for last year based on the way Boras handled his free agency. I doubt he goes back to being a 4 win pitcher, but he could easily get back to being a solid 3rd or 4th starter.
  4. Rob
    It can't end until there's an unverified sighting of Soto in the wrong location.
  5. Rob
    I'd argue that Kevin Millwood was the stronger 4th than Steve Avery. But yeah. Those Braves rotations were absurd throughout my childhood.
  6. Rob
    I think the problem with that assessment is that Seiya is a special DH. Among all qualified position players, he was 16th in the league last year in wRC+. He was just a tiny bit behind Mookie Betts and a little bit ahead of Freddie Freeman and Kyle Schwarber. Dude can hit. And he's been getting better. Seiya's problem has been health. He's missed significant time every year, and usually has a rough stretch that can be at least partially attributed to his injuries. But that's why it's easy to dream on him in a DH role staying healthy and taking the full measure of his PAs next season. Between him and Bellinger, I would vastly prefer to keep Suzuki.
  7. Rob
    2004 Cubs had Wood, Prior, Zambrano, Maddux, and Clement. Each of them had posted a 4+ fWAR season in the very recent past. (2002 or 2003). But injuries and time took their toll. There was also the 2015-16 Mets with Harvey, Matz, deGrom, Syndergaard, and Wheeler. But they had an even tougher time taking the field than the Cubs did.
  8. Rob
    I think Theo would do exactly the same kind of stuff than Manfred did. His whole shtick as a GM was being willing to make unpopular moves that set up future success. If ever there was a commissioner who was prepared to weather a storm of jeers, it would be Theo.
  9. Rob
    I'm not an unreasonable man. I liked the change Manfred made with the larger bases to encourage more stealing. I've come around slightly on the pitch clock as well. I still think they've got it tuned too aggressively, and I'd love for players to be able to step out a bit more often in big moments to build the suspense. But overall things were trending too slow, and even I can admit that now. Same for the end of the LOOGY. But the ghost runner is horsefeathers horsefeathers. And the golden-at-bat would be worthy of a firing squad.
  10. Rob
    Others have touched on this, but I'm less than sold on Sugano. Maybe he pulls it together like peak Kyle Hendricks or Miles Mikolas. But I think it's more likely than not that he struggles mightily stateside.
  11. Rob
    They're absolutely still going to go after Sasaki. At his price point, there's zero reason not to be involved and maxing out our offer. The penalties are worth far less than his anticipate excess value. I'd also be surprised if this is the rotation as things stand. I think they'll still be looking into adding a SP via trade. Assad/Wicks/Wesneski are fine to look at as 6th starters who will need to cover a lot of innings for Boyd, but not the guys you want to guarantee a spot.
  12. Rob
    I'm going to try to reserve judgment on this one. One thing the Dodgers figured out a while back was that you can never have enough pitching. They tend to go into the season with 7-8 solid SP in varying states of health. Boyd is usually quite effective when healthy, so long as he's healthy at advantageous times, this would be a great contract for a team like the Dodgers. If the Cubs are able to stack SP and we aren't relying on Boyd to remain healthy, I'd be a fan of this signing. So I'm going to withhold judgment until I see how the rest of the offseason plays out.
  13. Rob
    Nah. I love PCA, but there was (is) a notable hole at the top of his swing which lets him get beat by high heat. He'd struggled mightily with that, and went 0-14 in his cup of coffee prior to last year. His floor was still high due to his defense and baserunning. But he had plenty to prove.
  14. Rob
    Again, I encourage you to look back at 2016 when the Cubs won the World Series on the back of their incredible defense. And I'll remind you that Javier Baez was not expected to be a major contributor to that team. But when his development was clear, the coaching staff shuffled things around and found places for him to play. He logged time at 2B, 3B, and SS, even though when the team was healthy that meant shuffling Zobrist and Bryant around. If Shaw develops like you're anticipating and starts forcing the issue, I have no doubt that Counsell will find playing time for him moving forward.
  15. Rob
    People don't give Nico enough credit on offense. His wRC+ by season: 2019 - 85 (82 PA) 2020 - 63 (126 PA) 2021 - 106 (170 PA) 2022 - 108 (517 PA) 2023 - 104 (688 PA) 2024 - 103 (641 PA) Nico had a rough first couple hundred plate appearances. Since then, he's been slightly above-average on offense, whilst still playing a premium defensive position exceedingly well. He hits for a high average, takes just enough walks, and hits for just barely passable power. And then adds some value on the bases. Is it a sexy offensive profile? Absolutely not. He's basically Ryan Theriot with a bit more pop. But it's enough to provide real value.
  16. Rob
    Double post. Delete me please and thank you.
  17. Rob
    Everybody staying healthy is a pipedream. Did you forget that Hoerner had surgery that may keep him out the first part of the season? Shaw is going to get a ton of chances in ST to prove his worth. And he's likely to line himself up as a the primary backup to 2B, 3B, and SS. He may start the season with the Cubs depending on Hoerner's recovery, but once Hoerner is good to go it probably makes sense to put Shaw back in AAA for his development. But I'd bet dollars to donuts that any prolonged injury to Swanson, Hoerner, or Paredes ends up with Shaw getting the nod. I'd guess Shaw logs north of 60 games with the Cubs this year, and is poised to take over a spot next year. And to touch on a point you've made to other people -- I don't know why you're so concerned about offensive runs versus defensive runs. There are arguments about the proper roster construction to be made in the playoffs, but for the regular season runs are basically runs. There's no point of diminishing returns on defense during the regular season. Remember 2016? We had the best defense in baseball.
  18. Rob
    Shaw is exciting, and he may well render Hoerner redundant. But I see little need to push him. Already, we know our playoff hopes likely have a razor thin margin. We aren't some powerhouse team that can afford to take a mild downgrade this season while Shaw works out issues at the big league level. So pushing out a four win player for a guy who'd likely be worth closer to two this season (and maybe four a couple seasons down the road), is a move that we just can't make. Shaw can do the "first guy up from AAA" thing in event of injury. He will get his reps eventually, I have no doubt.
  19. Rob
    Cubs add reliever Brooks Kriske, per his own post on Instagram. He's out of options, so I'm assuming it's a minor league deal. Or he'll be cut in spring training when it's clear he can't magically throw strikes.
  20. Rob
    I haven't watched much football in the last couple decades, and am only slowly regaining a passing interest. So please excuse this if it's a dumb question. My understanding was that Poles was regarded as a good-to-great GM if for no other reason than the absolute steal of a deal with Carolina where the Bears traded down their #1 pick for this year's #1 pick and a bunch of additional stuff. A couple months ago I was seeing it lauded as one of the most lopsided trades of all time. What happened there? Or was that just the lone good spot in an otherwise-terrible performance as GM?
  21. Rob
    Tauchman is a surprise. But if we aren’t getting nibbles on Bellinger, then Tauchman is too well-paid to be a fifth outfielder. Still, I can’t believe there was no trade value there. Maybe there’s an off-season medical issue?
  22. Rob
    I'm wondering if the Cubs should be looking spending some of their funds on extensions this season. This may be the last chance to get PCA "cheaply." He struggled so badly in the first half of the season, but showcased skills that could make him a perennial 4+ fWAR player going forward if he's truly figured it out. Likewise, one of Alcantara/Caissie probably needs to go in a trade. So why not put team-friendly extensions in front of both of them and ship off the one who doesn't sign?
  23. Rob
    Well, my plan for surviving the next four years involves a lot of deep denial. Being able to block the politics thread (and other assorted threads) from showing up in my feed would be a major help. Truth be told, seeing those threads is already causing me some trepidation about being on the site. So I would be eternally grateful for whatever you can slap together to make it happen.
  24. Rob
    Necroing this old post. I'd love to be able to ignore certain threads. Could be a nice offseason project for you.
  25. Rob
    Yeah. Moving Hoerner for starting pitching and running a stopgap option until Shaw was ready seemed like a viable way to upgrade the rotation. Not particularly likely. But prior to this, it was at least possible.
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